Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 16.0% 19.0%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 59.0% 56.2%
Politics Markets
Active Markets (41)
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 0.9% 0.0%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 95.0% 80.2%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 97.7% 97.0%
Before July 2026
Market Model 9.7% 5.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 48.0% 30.8%
1 to 5
Market Model 15.0% 21.2%
0
Market Model 76.0% 76.8%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 30.0% 13.1%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 70.0% 39.7%
Before May
Market Model 22.0% 16.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 75.0% 63.0%
CBP
Market Model 20.0% 7.7%
TSA
Market Model 19.0% 6.6%
0
Market Model 15.0% 9.1%
1
Market Model 61.0% 63.7%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Before Jun 12, 2026
Market Model 55.0% 52.3%
Before August
Market Model 55.0% 52.3%
Before June
Market Model 29.0% 28.4%
At least 60 days
Market Model 99.7% 99.5%
At least 90 days
Market Model 46.0% 35.2%
Keir Starmer
Market Model 53.0% 44.4%
Sanae Takaichi
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
China
Market Model 87.0% 76.4%
Taiwan
Market Model 6.0% 2.6%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 11.0% 6.5%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 45.0% 28.4%
Donald Trump
Market Model 58.0% 56.4%
Barron Trump
Market Model 44.0% 31.0%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 23.0%
Félix Tshisekedi
Market Model 15.0% 12.6%
Paul Kagame
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 51.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.4%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 76.0% 74.0%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 98.0% 97.7%
Todd Blanche
Market Model 33.0% 22.0%
Lee Zeldin
Market Model 51.0% 33.3%
Before May
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Before June
Market Model 13.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 18.0%
Below 300
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
Above 800
Market Model 21.0% 17.6%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 8.4%
Clarence Thomas
Market Model 50.0% 27.0%
Samuel Alito
Market Model 70.0% 49.1%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.2%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 15.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 16.3%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 14.9%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before Jul 2026
Market Model 6.0% 2.5%
Greenland
Market Model 4.0% 18.7%
Canada
Market Model 3.0% 18.7%
$0 / No Acquisition
Market Model 78.0% 94.4%
$600 billion to $899 billion
Market Model 6.0% 0.2%
Before January 21, 2029
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 11.0% 7.8%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 2.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 7.9%
Tulsi Gabbard
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Market Model 60.0% 44.7%
Reza Pahlavi
Market Model 11.0% 9.5%
Pete Hegseth
Market Model 10.0% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 1.6%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel out as FBI Director? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 16.0% | 19.0% | High | $869,408.62 | Refresh |
| When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 0.9% | 0.0% | High | $1,497,334.71 | Refresh |
| Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 1.0% | 1.1% | High | $4,665,531.9 | Refresh |
| Will marijuana be rescheduled? Top outcome: Before July 2026 | 9.7% | 5.6% | High | $1,568,026.58 | Refresh |
| How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May? Top outcome: 1 to 5 | 15.0% | 21.2% | High | $1,637,041.71 | Refresh |
| When will DHS be funded again? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 30.0% | 13.1% | High | $14,355,230.22 | Refresh |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before May | 22.0% | 16.0% | Med | $4,737,908.31 | Refresh |
| Which DHS components will receive more funding before May? Top outcome: CBP | 20.0% | 7.7% | Med | $96,233.28 | Refresh |
| How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 15.0% | 9.1% | High | $59,813.86 | Refresh |
| When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.1% | High | $53,176.25 | Refresh |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor? Top outcome: Before August | 55.0% | 52.3% | High | $335,733.24 | Refresh |
| How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 60 days | 99.7% | 99.5% | High | $16,654,779.36 | Refresh |
| Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer | 53.0% | 44.4% | Med | $35,601.87 | Refresh |
| What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: China | 87.0% | 76.4% | Med | $422,484.16 | Refresh |
| When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 11.0% | 6.5% | High | $2,450,310.98 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump pardon? Top outcome: Donald Trump | 58.0% | 56.4% | Med | $222,253 | Refresh |
| Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? Yes refers to: Between 2025 and 2035? | 19.0% | 23.0% | Med | $800 | Refresh |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi | 15.0% | 12.6% | High | $9,487 | Refresh |
| Will Trump approve a new city on federal land? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 51.0% | Med | $5,239 | Refresh |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? Yes refers to: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 7.0% | 6.4% | Med | $105,682 | Refresh |
| When will Pam Bondi depart as Attorney General? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 76.0% | 74.0% | High | $4,405,941 | Refresh |
| Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Top outcome: Todd Blanche | 33.0% | 22.0% | High | $602,678 | Refresh |
| Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before May | 4.0% | 1.4% | High | $800,323 | Refresh |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0% | Med | $756,255 | Refresh |
| How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term? Top outcome: Below 300 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | $26,513 | Refresh |
| Will Trump balance the budget? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 12.0% | 8.4% | Med | $40,327 | Refresh |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas | 50.0% | 27.0% | Med | $51,480 | Refresh |
| Will Trump add a 51st state to the US? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 14.0% | 9.2% | Med | $53,434 | Refresh |
| Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | 15.3% | High | $98,074 | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 12.0% | 7.8% | Med | $109,977 | Refresh |
| Will Trump resign during his term? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 24.0% | 16.3% | Med | $166,509 | Refresh |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Yes refers to: Before his term ends | 22.0% | 14.9% | Med | $296,443 | Refresh |
| Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $591,333 | Refresh |
| What will be the 51st state in Trump's term? Top outcome: Greenland | 4.0% | 18.7% | High | $594,741 | Refresh |
| How much will the US acquire Greenland for? Top outcome: $0 / No Acquisition | 78.0% | 94.4% | High | $1,023,227 | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029 | 35.0% | 27.1% | High | $3,752,771 | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.4% | High | $245,481 | Refresh |
| Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Top outcome: Tulsi Gabbard | 16.0% | 13.4% | High | $1,754,507 | Refresh |
| Who will visit Iran before July? Top outcome: Reza Pahlavi | 11.0% | 9.5% | High | $113,976 | Refresh |
| Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars | 10.0% | 1.6% | Med | $56,620 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 | Refresh |
