KPI Whisper · prediction-market signal

Company KPIs,
priced live.

Market-implied estimates for the metrics companies are about to report — deliveries, subscribers, orders, DAU — straight from Kalshi order books, ranked by real-money volume and measured against Octagon's model.

Live 14 prints tracked 155 markets 1.21M total volume refreshed 02:42 UTC
Top print by volume Tesla deliveries in Q2 443K market-implied 97.7% confirms · +1.7pp Model's 97.7% probability exceeds 96c market, a +1.7pp gap amid raised analyst delivery forecasts. Read the report →
Ranked by volume · model edge = model − market

The KPI board

  1. 01 Tesla deliveries Companies · 20 strikes 443K 357K 98% +1.7pp
  2. 02 Tesla production Companies · 13 strikes 439K 243K 95% -3.0pp
  3. 03 How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter Companies · 7 strikes 1.65K 125K 94% -3.4pp
  4. 04 Robinhood funded customers Financials · 10 strikes 28.1M 109K 100% +0.5pp
  5. 05 Rivian total vehicles delivered Financials · 18 strikes 10.9K 75.8K 72% edge n/a
  6. 06 Sweetgreen profit margin Financials · 8 strikes 15 65.9K 98% +0.6pp
  7. 07 Hims & Hers subscribers Financials · 15 strikes 2.76M 63.8K 97% +2.8pp
  8. 08 Norwegian Cruise passengers carried Financials · 7 strikes 3.36M 50.4K 98% +1.2pp
  9. 09 DoorDash total orders Financials · 7 strikes 975M 31.1K 93% -0.9pp
  10. 10 Clear+ members Financials · 6 strikes 8.35M 27.8K 86% -6.1pp
  11. 11 Reddit daily active uniques Financials · 10 strikes 131M 26.5K 99% +0.1pp
  12. 12 Spotify monthly active users Financials · 12 strikes 780M 16.4K 99% +0.1pp
  13. 13 Reddit daily active uniques Financials · 10 strikes 141M 10.6K 96% +0.3pp
  14. 14 Robinhood funded customers Companies · 12 strikes 28.5M 7.64K 89% -2.7pp

model leads (+≥2pp) rich vs model (−≥2pp) confirms

Model vs market · biggest gaps

Where Octagon disagrees

Model sees upside model ≥ +2pp over market
Priced rich vs model market ≥ 2pp above model
Catalyst calendar · nearest first

Reporting soon

  1. In 53 days (August 21) Tesla deliveries Companies 443K 357K 98% +1.7pp
  2. In 53 days (August 21) Tesla production Companies 439K 243K 95% -3.0pp
  3. In 59 days (August 27) Spotify monthly active users Financials 780M 16.4K 99% +0.1pp
  4. In 60 days (August 28) Robinhood funded customers Financials 28.1M 109K 100% +0.5pp
  5. In 61 days (August 29) Reddit daily active uniques Financials 131M 26.5K 99% +0.1pp
  6. In 65 days (September 2) Hims & Hers subscribers Financials 2.76M 63.8K 97% +2.8pp
  7. In 66 days (September 3) Clear+ members Financials 8.35M 27.8K 86% -6.1pp
  8. In 66 days (September 3) Rivian total vehicles delivered Financials 10.9K 75.8K 72% edge n/a

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