KPI Newsdesk · market vs Octagon model

Company KPIs,
priced live.

Market-implied forecasts for the metrics companies are about to report — deliveries, subscribers, orders, DAU — from aggregated prediction markets, measured against Octagon's independent model.

Live 193 KPI events 1,796 markets $12.1M total volume refreshed 07:09 UTC
Model edge = Octagon model − market-implied

The KPI board

  1. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Headcount META · Q2 2026 76.25K model below
  2. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Total System-wide Restaurants WING · Q2 2026 near settled
  3. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Comparable Restaurant Sales Increase CMG · Q2 2026 2 +0.04 · +2.5%
  4. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Funded Customers HOOD · Q2 2026 27.99M near settled
  5. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Daily Active People META · Q2 2026 3.6B +11.65M · +0.3%
  6. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Total Restaurant Count CMG · Q2 2026 4.17K near settled
  7. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales CVNA · Q2 2026 198K -919.00 · -0.5%
  8. In 2 days ~Jul 29 Gold Subs HOOD · Q2 2026 4.55M near settled
  9. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Cigarette Shipments MO · Q2 2026 15.17B -261M · -1.7%
  10. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Passengers Carried NCLH · Q2 2026 855K -31.2K · -3.6%
  11. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Hours Engaged RBLX · Q2 2026 model below
  12. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Hours Streamed ROKU · Q2 2026 near settled
  13. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Headcount AMZN · Q2 2026 1.56M +877.00 · +0.1%
  14. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Megawatts Sold FSLR · Q2 2026 model below
  15. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Total Trading Volume COIN · Q2 2026 157B +623M · +0.4%
  16. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Monthly Transacting Users COIN · Q2 2026 7.85M +7.25K · +0.1%
  17. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Total Shipments RACE · Q2 2026 3.45K +3.00 · +0.1%
  18. In 3 days ~Jul 30 Daily Active Uniques RDDT · Q2 2026 129M near settled
  19. In 7 days ~Aug 3 Monthly Transacting Users GRAB · Q2 2026 near settled
  20. In 7 days ~Aug 3 Daily Active Users SNAP · Q2 2026 490M -3.01M · -0.6%
  21. In 7 days ~Aug 3 Total Rooms MAR · Q2 2026 1.81M +1.17K · +0.1%
  22. In 7 days ~Aug 3 Total Customers PLTR · Q2 2026 1.07K near settled
  23. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Global Comparable Sales Growth MCD · Q2 2026 0.205882 +0.09 · +46.0%
  24. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Total Payers MTCH · Q2 2026 13.17M +28.78K · +0.2%
  25. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Headcount SPOT · Q2 2026 7.28K near settled
  26. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Total Locations TOST · Q2 2026 179K +356.00 · +0.2%
  27. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Total Systemwide Restaurants MCD · Q2 2026 46.05K +20.00 · +0.0%
  28. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Monthly Active Users SPOT · Q2 2026 779M near settled
  29. In 8 days ~Aug 4 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) ZETA · Q2 2026 196 near settled
  30. In 9 days ~Aug 5 Paid Customers >$100k Arr FIG · Q2 2026 near settled
  31. In 9 days ~Aug 5 Gross Merchandise Volume SHOP · Q2 2026 near settled
  32. In 9 days ~Aug 5 Gross Merchandise Volume EBAY · Q2 2026 21.77B near settled
  33. In 9 days ~Aug 5 Members YOU · Q2 2026 8.36M -20.83K · -0.2%
  34. In 9 days ~Aug 5 Total Orders DASH · Q2 2026 971M near settled
  35. In 9 days ~Aug 5 Items Sold MELI · Q2 2026 802M +1.91M · +0.2%
  36. In 10 days ~Aug 6 Bookings ABNB · Q2 2026 147M -1.75M · -1.2%
  37. In 10 days ~Aug 6 Total Production (Mboed) PBR · Q2 2026 near settled
  38. In 10 days ~Aug 6 Profit Margin SG · Q2 2026 15 near settled
  39. In 10 days ~Aug 6 Total Rides LYFT · Q2 2026 257M -2.29M · -0.9%
  40. In 11 days ~Aug 7 Same-restaurant Sales Growth WEN · Q2 2026 model below
  41. In 14 days ~Aug 10 Subscribers HIMS · Q2 2026 2.8M -20.25K · -0.7%
  42. In 15 days ~Aug 11 Restaurants CAVA · Q2 2026 476 near settled
  43. In 15 days ~Aug 11 Paying Users SE · Q2 2026 68.43M +1.34M · +2.0%
  44. In 15 days ~Aug 11 Same Restaurant Sales Growth CAVA · Q2 2026 9 near settled
  45. In 17 days ~Aug 13 Customers NU · Q2 2026 139M near settled
  46. In 22 days ~Aug 18 Active Consumers KLAR · Q2 2026 122M -53.65K · -0.0%
  47. In 22 days ~Aug 18 Customer Transactions HD · Q2 2026 446M near settled
  48. In 23 days ~Aug 19 Total Funded Accounts FUTU · Q2 2026 3.8M +18.73K · +0.5%
  49. In 23 days ~Aug 19 Transactions Change TGT · Q2 2026 3 -0.41 · -14.4%
  50. In 23 days ~Aug 19 Customer Transactions LOW · Q2 2026 223M -1.39M · -0.6%
  51. In 31 days ~Aug 27 Funded Accounts BULL · Q2 2026 5.19M near settled
  52. In 31 days ~Aug 27 Transactions Growth ULTA · Q2 2026 1 near settled
  53. Settles Aug 27 Total Stores SBUX · Q3 2026 41.22K +124.00 · +0.3%
  54. Settles Aug 27 Comparable Transactions Growth SBUX · Q3 2026 4 -0.26 · -6.4%
  55. Settles Sep 17 Delivered Homes TOL · Q3 2026 2.68K +8.00 · +0.3%
  56. Settles Sep 19 Comparable Sales Growth (ex-fuel) WMT · Q2 2027 4 near settled
  57. Settles Sep 25 Total Stores URBN · Q2 2027 810 -2.00 · -0.2%
  58. In 78 days ~Oct 13 Same Store Sales Growth DPZ · Q3 2026 2 +0.38 · +17.6%
  59. In 78 days ~Oct 13 Total US Stores DPZ · Q3 2026 7.28K near settled
  60. In 80 days ~Oct 15 Active Brokerage Accounts SCHW · Q3 2026 model below
  61. In 86 days ~Oct 21 Passengers UAL · Q3 2026 near settled
  62. In 93 days ~Oct 28 Total Deliveries TSLA · Q3 2026 468K +5.36K · +1.1%
  63. In 93 days ~Oct 28 Total Production TSLA · Q3 2026 479K -11.86K · -2.5%
  64. In 93 days ~Oct 28 Deliveries TSLA · Q3 2026 448K near settled
  65. Settles Nov 26 Same Store Sales Growth Wingstop US · Q2 2026 model below
  66. Settles Nov 27 Food Same-store Sales Growth Loblaw · Q2 2026 2 -0.11 · -4.7%
  67. Settles Dec 4 Comparable Sales Growth Canadian Tire · Q2 2026 model below
  68. Settles Dec 5 Generation Talen Energy TWh · Q2 2026 13 -2.00 · -16.2%
  69. Settles Dec 9 Passenger Load Factor Air Canada · Q2 2026 87 near settled
  70. Settles Dec 24 Customers With Trailing 12-month Revenue >$1m SNOW · Q2 2027 832 near settled
  71. Settles Jan 1 Comparable Sales Growth Lululemon Americas · Q2 2026 model below
  72. Settles Jan 1 How many Tesla semi trucks produced FY 2027 818 +128.00 · +15.7%
  73. Settles Jan 8 Comparable Store Sales Growth Dollarama · Q2 2027 5 near settled
  74. Settles Jan 26 Available Lower Berth Days CCL · Q3 2026 24.9M +4.43K · +0.0%
  75. Settles Jan 29 Total Vehicles Delivered RIVN · Q3 2026 15.65K +428.00 · +2.7%
  76. Settles Jan 29 Total Vehicles US Sales F · Q3 2026 model below
  77. Settles Feb 2 Total Beer Shipments STZ · Q2 2027 120M -2.4M · -2.0%
  78. Settles Feb 19 Commercial Airplane Deliveries BA · Q3 2026 174 near settled
  79. Settles Mar 7 Comparable Sales Growth Aritzia · Q2 2027 22 near settled
  80. Settles Apr 1 Tesla deliveries by TSLA · FY 2027 516K -13.13K · -2.5%
  81. Settles Apr 1 Tesla energy business TSLA · FY 2027 20 near settled
  82. Settles May 2 Passenger Load Factor Air Canada · FY 2026 near settled
  83. Settles May 2 Comparable Sales Growth Canadian Tire · FY 2026 model below
  84. Settles May 2 Same Store Sales Growth DPZ · FY 2026 2 -0.35 · -20.7%
  85. Settles May 2 Total US Stores DPZ · FY 2026 7.37K +111.00 · +1.5%
  86. Settles May 2 Sold First Solar Gigawatts · FY 2026 near settled
  87. Settles May 2 Generation Talen Energy TWh · FY 2026 53 near settled
  88. Settles May 2 Same Store Sales Growth Wingstop US · FY 2026 near settled
  89. Settles May 2 Total System-wide Restaurants WING · FY 2026 3.52K +5.00 · +0.1%
  90. Settles May 2 Super-scaled Customers (>$1m) ZETA · FY 2026 209 +16.00 · +7.5%
  91. Settles May 2 Food Retail Same-store Sales Growth Loblaw · FY 2026 2 +0.04 · +1.8%
  92. Settles May 30 Comparable Sales Growth Lululemon Americas · FY 2026 model below
  93. Settles Jun 30 Comparable Store Sales Growth Dollarama · FY 2027 near settled
  94. Settles Jul 30 Comparable Sales Growth Aritzia · FY 2027 22 -1.00 · -5.5%
  95. Settles Mar 31 Domestic Cigarette Shipments MO · FY 2026 58.19B -2.95B · -5.1%
  96. Settles Mar 31 Total Restaurant Count CMG · FY 2026 4.37K +15.00 · +0.4%
  97. Settles Mar 31 Retail Vehicle Unit Sales CVNA · FY 2026 near settled
  98. Settles Mar 31 Seats Flown LUV · FY 2026 228M +133K · +0.1%
  99. Settles Mar 31 Comparable Transactions Growth SBUX · FY 2026 near settled
  100. Settles Mar 31 Premium Subscribers SPOT · FY 2026 model below
  101. Settles Mar 31 Total Payers MTCH · FY 2026 13M -236K · -1.8%
  102. Settles Mar 31 Commercial Airplane Deliveries BA · FY 2026 653 -17.00 · -2.6%
  103. Settles Mar 31 Items Sold MELI · FY 2026 3.37B +337K · +0.0%
  104. Settles Mar 31 Available Lower Berth Days CCL · FY 2026 97.35M near settled
  105. Settles Mar 31 Total Global Stores SBUX · FY 2026 41.58K +42.00 · +0.1%
  106. Settles Mar 31 Total Car Shipments RACE · FY 2026 13.65K near settled
  107. Settles Mar 31 Subscribers HIMS · FY 2026 3.06M -11.84K · -0.4%
  108. Settles Mar 31 Total Customer Count PLTR · FY 2026 1.2K +9.00 · +0.7%
  109. Settles Mar 31 Total Deliveries TSLA · FY 2026 1.74M near settled
  110. Settles Mar 31 Funded Customers HOOD · FY 2026 33.09M near settled
  111. Settles Mar 31 Vehicle Sales Volume F · FY 2026 2.03M near settled
  112. Settles Mar 31 Gross Merchandise Volume EBAY · FY 2026 87.78B near settled
  113. Settles Mar 31 Daily Active People META · FY 2026 3.75B -10.11M · -0.3%
  114. Settles Mar 31 Passengers Carried NCLH · FY 2026 3.37M -15.51K · -0.5%
  115. Settles Mar 31 Total Vehicles Delivered RIVN · FY 2026 54.81K near settled
  116. Settles Mar 31 Daily Active Uniques RDDT · FY 2026 141M -358K · -0.3%
  117. Settles Mar 31 Passengers Flown UAL · FY 2026 187M -464K · -0.2%
  118. Settles Mar 31 Active Clear+ Members YOU · FY 2026 8.76M +67.78K · +0.8%
  119. Settles Mar 31 Monthly Transacting Users GRAB · FY 2026 57.11M -87.19K · -0.2%
  120. Settles Mar 31 Shipment Volume PM · FY 2026 772M +3.95M · +0.5%
  121. Settles Mar 31 Total Production TSLA · FY 2026 1.81M near settled
  122. Settles Mar 31 Total Locations TOST · FY 2026 190K near settled
  123. Settles Mar 31 Total Monthly Active Users SPOT · FY 2026 830M +667K · +0.1%
  124. Settles Mar 31 Headcount INTC · FY 2026 81.04K -1.97K · -2.4%
  125. Settles Mar 31 Headcount ORCL · FY 2027 near settled
  126. Settles Mar 31 Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts SCHW · FY 2026 near settled
  127. Settles Mar 31 Headcount META · FY 2026 73.22K -2.95K · -4.0%
  128. Settles Mar 31 Headcount AMZN · FY 2026 1.57M -8.21K · -0.5%
  129. Settles Mar 31 Headcount SPOT · FY 2026 near settled
  130. Settles Mar 31 Customers NU · FY 2026 148M -513K · -0.3%
  131. Settles Mar 31 Headcount GOOGL · FY 2026 205K near settled
  132. Settles Mar 31 Headcount NVDA · FY 2027 49.38K +377.00 · +0.8%
  133. Settles Mar 31 Headcount AAPL · FY 2026 169K -431.00 · -0.3%
  134. Settles Mar 31 Headcount TSLA · FY 2026 139K near settled
  135. Settles Mar 31 Headcount NFLX · FY 2026 17.6K +160.00 · +0.9%
  136. Settles Oct 29 Brands Beer Shipments STZ · FY 2027 415M model below
  137. Settles May 1 Market Share EV · FY 2030 27 -2.00 · -7.0%
  138. Reported Jul 22 Total Rooms WH · Q2 2026 873K model pending
  139. Reported Jul 22 Average Passenger Fare LUV · Q2 2026 226 model pending
  140. Reported Jul 22 Seats Flown LUV · Q2 2026 59.01M model pending
  141. Reported Jul 22 Headcount GOOGL · Q2 2026 199K model pending
  142. Reported Jul 21 Schwab Active Brokerage Accounts SCHW · Q2 2026 39.8M model pending
  143. Reported Jul 20 Total US Stores DPZ · Q2 2026 7.23K model pending
  144. Reported Jul 15 Passengers UAL · Q2 2026 48.69M model pending
  145. Reported Jul 14 Commercial Airplane Deliveries BA · Q2 2026 171 model pending
  146. Reported Jul 6 Total Vehicles Sales F · Q2 2026 549K model pending
  147. Reported Jul 2 Production TSLA · Q2 2026 452K model pending
  148. Reported Jul 2 Total Vehicles Delivered RIVN · Q2 2026 12.19K model pending
  149. Reported Jul 2 Deliveries TSLA · Q2 2026 480K model pending
  150. Reported Jun 30 Brands Beer Shipments STZ · Q1 2027 113M model pending
  151. Reported Jun 23 Avg Daily Package Volume FDX · Q4 2026 17.1M model pending
  152. Reported Jun 23 Available Lower Berth Days CCL · Q2 2026 24.7M model pending
  153. Reported Jun 8 Skier Visits MTN · Q3 2026 7.28M model pending
  154. Reported May 28 Total Cardholders COST · Q3 2026 148M model pending
  155. Reported May 28 Total Funded Accounts FUTU · Q1 2026 3.59M model pending
  156. Reported May 27 Customers With Trailing 12-month Revenue Above $1 Million SNOW · Q1 2027 779 model pending
  157. Reported May 21 Funded Accounts BULL · Q1 2026 5.11M model pending
  158. Reported May 21 Customer Transactions LOW · Q1 2026 197M model pending
  159. Reported Apr 5 Deliveries TSLA · Q1 2026 358K +0.00 · +0.0%
  160. Reported Shipment Volume PM · Q1 2026 186M +2.75M · +1.5%
  161. Reported Same Store Sales Growth DPZ · Q2 2026 0.5 model pending
  162. Reported Headcount INTC · Q2 2026 82.25K model pending
  163. Reported Shipment Volume PM · Q2 2026 192M model pending

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Model vs market · biggest gaps

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