Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Master list of Epstein 'J. Does' remains sealed despite efforts.
- Judge Preska prioritizes public access for unsealing documents.
- Active FOIA lawsuits continue for Jeffrey Epstein files.
- Epstein estate developments expected in 2025-2026 in USVI and Florida.
- Justice Department expectations primarily link market to 2026 resolution.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 74.0% | 52.6% | Public records indicate past associations with Jeffrey Epstein, including flights. |
| Bill Clinton | 80.0% | 73.7% | Publicly documented flights on Epstein's private jet and visits to his properties occurred. |
| Kevin Spacey | 58.0% | 46.4% | Actor has faced numerous public allegations of sexual misconduct. |
| Woody Allen | 73.0% | 64.7% | Director has historical allegations of sexual abuse which align with Epstein's network's profile. |
| Alec Baldwin | 26.0% | 14.5% | New disclosures could unexpectedly reveal connections for any prominent public figure. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Joe Biden
๐ April 29, 2026: 87.4pp spike
Price increased from 3.1% to 90.5%
Outcome: Donald Trump
๐ April 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 92.0% to 77.0%
๐ April 22, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 73.0% to 91.0%
๐ April 17, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 72.0%
๐ April 16, 2026: 41.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 62.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Bill Gates is unambiguously named in any context within federal government documents directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein, provided these documents are released publicly after market issuance and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST, unless the event occurs earlier, with eligible documents including official publications, leaks, and media reports from specified news agencies.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | $0.98 | $0.98 | 99% |
| Naomi Campbell | $0.99 | $0.98 | 99% |
| Prince Andrew | $0.97 | $0.10 | 99% |
| Stephen Hawking | $0.99 | $0.98 | 99% |
| Barack Obama | $0.89 | $0.86 | 90% |
| Sean Combs | $0.90 | $0.98 | 90% |
| Bill Clinton | $0.81 | $0.20 | 80% |
| Donald Trump | $0.75 | $0.26 | 74% |
| Woody Allen | $0.74 | $0.27 | 73% |
| Bill Gates | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Kevin Spacey | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Alec Baldwin | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.97 | $0.10 | 1% |
| Michael Jackson | $0.99 | $0.98 | 1% |
| Ehud Barak | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Joe Biden | $0.97 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Rupert Murdoch | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the Status of the Sealed Epstein 'J. Does' List?
| Master List of 'J. Does' | Remains sealed [^] |
|---|---|
| Unsealing Request by Miami Herald | Denied by the court [^] |
| Other Pending 'Does' Motions | None detailed in provided sources [^] |
6. What is the timeline for Judge Preska's Epstein document unsealings?
| Primary Document Unsealing | Approximately 180 "Doe" documents ordered unsealed December 18, 2023, released starting January 3, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| Scheduled District Court Hearings | None between now and year-end 2025 in Giuffre v. Maxwell (1:15-cv-07433) [^] |
| Appellate Case Opinion Projected | Around July 23, 2025, for Giuffre v. Maxwell, No. 24-182 (2d Cir.) [^] |
7. What Are the Latest Updates on Epstein FOIA Lawsuits?
| Organizations with FOIA Lawsuits | American Oversight, Radar Online LLC, Democracy Defenders Fund [^] |
|---|---|
| Next Key Deadline (American Oversight) | August 1, 2024 (joint status report) [^] |
| Radar Online Lawsuit Status | Court remanded for more adequate search by FBI [^] |
8. What is the Timeline for Epstein Case Document Unsealings?
| Florida Grand Jury Unsealing Order | December 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| USVI Epstein-related Files Release Consideration | 2026 [^] |
| Civil Lawsuits Filed against Estate | At least two cases in 2026 [^] |
9. Why Do Prediction Markets Target 2026 for Epstein File Releases?
| Justice Dept. Release Anticipated | Beginning in 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Active Legislation | "Epstein Files Transparency Act" (H.R.4405) in 119th Congress (2025-2026) [^] |
| Prediction Market Resolution | Commonly 2026, some specify June 30, 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.