Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Prince Andrew to be named in Epstein files released in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has experienced a significant upward trend, moving from a starting price of 21.0% to a current probability of 74.0%. The most dramatic price action occurred in mid-April, beginning with a massive 41.0 percentage point spike on April 16th, which initiated a rapid ascent. This surge continued over the next week, with further spikes of 10.0pp and 18.0pp, culminating in a peak probability of 92.0% on April 23rd. Immediately following this peak, the market saw a sharp 15.0pp correction, indicating a potential consolidation phase after the rapid increase. The provided context offers no specific news or external events to explain this period of extreme volatility.
The market's price action suggests a shift in sentiment, though conviction during the key movements is difficult to assess. While the total traded volume of 2,536 contracts indicates moderate overall interest, the lack of specific volume data during the major spikes and drops makes it hard to gauge the strength behind those moves. After peaking above 90%, the price faced strong resistance and pulled back, and now appears to be establishing a new support level in the low-to-mid 70s. The current price of 74.0% suggests that despite the recent pullback, market participants still assign a high probability to a 'YES' resolution, reflecting a strong sentiment that has been sustained since the mid-April rally.
- Master list of Epstein 'J. Does' remains sealed despite efforts.
- Judge Preska prioritizes public access for unsealing documents.
- Active FOIA lawsuits continue for Jeffrey Epstein files.
- Epstein estate developments expected in 2025-2026 in USVI and Florida.
- Justice Department expectations primarily link market to 2026 resolution.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 74.0% | 52.6% | Public records indicate past associations with Jeffrey Epstein, including flights. |
| Bill Clinton | 80.0% | 73.7% | Publicly documented flights on Epstein's private jet and visits to his properties occurred. |
| Kevin Spacey | 58.0% | 46.4% | Actor has faced numerous public allegations of sexual misconduct. |
| Woody Allen | 73.0% | 64.7% | Director has historical allegations of sexual abuse which align with Epstein's network's profile. |
| Alec Baldwin | 26.0% | 14.5% | New disclosures could unexpectedly reveal connections for any prominent public figure. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Joe Biden
📈 April 29, 2026: 87.4pp spike
Price increased from 3.1% to 90.5%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Donald Trump
📉 April 23, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 92.0% to 77.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 22, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 73.0% to 91.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 17, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 72.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 16, 2026: 41.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 62.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Bill Gates is unambiguously named in any context within federal government documents directly regarding Jeffrey Epstein, provided these documents are released publicly after market issuance and before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST, unless the event occurs earlier, with eligible documents including official publications, leaks, and media reports from specified news agencies.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | $0.98 | $0.98 | 99% |
| Naomi Campbell | $0.99 | $0.98 | 99% |
| Prince Andrew | $0.97 | $0.10 | 99% |
| Stephen Hawking | $0.99 | $0.98 | 99% |
| Barack Obama | $0.89 | $0.86 | 90% |
| Sean Combs | $0.90 | $0.98 | 90% |
| Bill Clinton | $0.81 | $0.20 | 80% |
| Donald Trump | $0.75 | $0.26 | 74% |
| Woody Allen | $0.74 | $0.27 | 73% |
| Bill Gates | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Kevin Spacey | $0.58 | $0.43 | 58% |
| Alec Baldwin | $0.26 | $0.75 | 26% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.97 | $0.10 | 1% |
| Michael Jackson | $0.99 | $0.98 | 1% |
| Ehud Barak | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Joe Biden | $0.97 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Leonardo DiCaprio | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Rupert Murdoch | $0.99 | $0.98 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Trust Index
“Ehud Barak” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good
Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score58Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score74Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What is the Status of the Sealed Epstein 'J. Does' List?
| Master List of 'J. Does' | Remains sealed [1] |
|---|---|
| Unsealing Request by Miami Herald | Denied by the court [1] |
| Other Pending 'Does' Motions | None detailed in provided sources [1] |
The 'master list' of 'Epstein J. Does' remains sealed despite efforts. The inventory of sealed documents in the Giuffre v. Maxwell case notably includes a 'master list of Epstein ‘J. Does’' which details the identities of these individuals. This specific master list currently remains sealed. The Miami Herald specifically requested the unsealing and public disclosure of this crucial master list; however, the court denied their request [1].
No other 'Does' documents are actively sought for unsealing by specific groups. The research does not specify other individual sealed documents pertaining exclusively to 'Does' that are currently subject to active, pending motions to unseal by the Miami Herald or other organizations like The Guardian. Although general docket entries indicate various motions for disclosure, such as #1353 [2] and #1355 [3], these do not explicitly detail additional sealed 'Does' documents or ongoing unsealing efforts by specific organizations for such documents.
Sources (3)
- 1Judge denies request to release master list of Epstein ‘J. Does’ | Miami Heraldmiamiherald.com
- 2Motion for Disclosure – #1353 in Giuffre v. Maxwell (S.D.N.Y., 1:15-cv-07433) – CourtListener.comcourtlistener.com
- 3Leave to File Document – #1355 in Giuffre v. Maxwell (S.D.N.Y., 1:15-cv-07433) – CourtListener.comcourtlistener.com
7. What is the timeline for Judge Preska's Epstein document unsealings?
| Primary Document Unsealing | Approximately 180 "Doe" documents ordered unsealed December 18, 2023, released starting January 3, 2024 [1] |
|---|---|
| Scheduled District Court Hearings | None between now and year-end 2025 in Giuffre v. Maxwell (1:15-cv-07433) [2] |
| Appellate Case Opinion Projected | Around July 23, 2025, for Giuffre v. Maxwell, No. 24-182 (2d Cir.) [3] |
Judge Preska's unsealing rationale prioritizes public access over non-party privacy interests. Her legal basis for unsealing documents involving non-party 'Does' stems from the robust common law right of public access to judicial documents [1]. In a December 18, 2023, order, Judge Preska affirmed that this presumption applies unless documents are "merely peripheral" or not relevant to the judicial function [1]. While acknowledging the privacy concerns of non-parties, she determined these interests are generally outweighed by the public's interest in access, especially for individuals "accused of wrongdoing in connection with Epstein's sex trafficking ring" [1]. This ruling history includes the December 18, 2023, order, which directed the unsealing of approximately 180 documents in the case Giuffre v. Maxwell, 1:15-cv-07433, with the actual release commencing on January 3, 2024 [1].
No new district court hearings are scheduled through year-end 2025 to set a firm timeline for further releases. The docket for Giuffre v. Maxwell, 1:15-cv-07433, in the Southern District of New York does not indicate any future scheduled status conferences or hearings between now and year-end 2025 [2]. The primary unsealing of the identified 'Doe' documents in this specific civil case has already occurred [4]. However, an appeal related to Giuffre v. Maxwell is currently pending in the Second Circuit Court of Appeals under case number 24-182, filed on January 22, 2024, with a projected opinion date around July 23, 2025 [3]. This appellate activity, although not a district court hearing presided over by Judge Preska, could potentially influence future access to documents or subsequent rulings on previous unsealings [3].
Sources (4)
- 1https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24233235/epsteinorder.pdfs3.documentcloud.org
- 2Giuffre v. Maxwell, 1:15-cv-07433 – CourtListener.comcourtlistener.com
- 3Giuffre v. Maxwell, No. 24-182 (2d Cir. 2025):: Justialaw.justia.com
- 4Jeffrey Epstein case: What to know about 'John Doe' files just unsealed: NPRnpr.org
8. What Are the Latest Updates on Epstein FOIA Lawsuits?
| Organizations with FOIA Lawsuits | American Oversight, Radar Online LLC, Democracy Defenders Fund [1] |
|---|---|
| Next Key Deadline (American Oversight) | August 1, 2024 (joint status report) [2] |
| Radar Online Lawsuit Status | Court remanded for more adequate search by FBI [3] |
Multiple organizations maintain active FOIA lawsuits concerning Jeffrey Epstein files. American Oversight, a non-profit watchdog, is pursuing an ongoing Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit against the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) seeking records related to the review of Epstein's files and potential Trump administration involvement [1]. A key deadline in this case is August 1, 2024, when the parties are scheduled to submit a joint status report [2]. The DOJ has also stated its expectation to soon release more Epstein-related documents, outlining progress in processing these records [2].
Radar Online and Democracy Defenders Fund also actively pursue Epstein records. Radar Online LLC has an active FOIA case against the FBI [3]. A court ruling on June 25, 2024, determined the FBI conducted a reasonable initial search but remanded the case for a more adequate search for specific records [3]. While this signifies ongoing progress, the available information does not detail further specific court dates or deadlines for Radar Online's case [3]. Separately, the Democracy Defenders Fund announced on January 6, 2025, the filing of a lawsuit demanding the release of DOJ records regarding Epstein's alleged abuse and sex trafficking [4].
Sources (4)
- 1American Oversight Seeks Emergency Court Order to Release Records About DOJ/FBI Review of Epstein Files - American Oversightamericanoversight.org
- 2More Epstein Files Likely Ready Soon, DOJ Says in FOIA Challengenews.bloomberglaw.com
- 3Office of Information Policy | Radar Online LLC v. FBI, No. 17-3956, 2024 WL 3161777 (S.D.N.Y. June 25, 2024) (Gardephe, J.) | United States Department of Justicejustice.gov
- 4DEMOCRACY DEFENDERS FUND DEMANDS INVESTIGATION INTO DOJ’S FAILURE TO RELEASE EPSTEIN FILESdemocracydefendersfund.org
9. What is the Timeline for Epstein Case Document Unsealings?
| Florida Grand Jury Unsealing Order | December 2025 [1] |
|---|---|
| USVI Epstein-related Files Release Consideration | 2026 [2] |
| Civil Lawsuits Filed against Estate | At least two cases in 2026 [3] |
New developments regarding Epstein's estate are expected in 2025 and 2026 across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Florida. These developments involve the release of documents and ongoing civil litigation concerning Jeffrey Epstein's estate and alleged co-conspirators. A federal judge in Florida ordered the unsealing of grand jury transcripts and records in December 2025 [1], while the V.I. Court is also considering the release of Epstein-related files in 2026 [2].
Florida will see grand jury records unsealed and new civil lawsuits. The federal judge's December 2025 order specifically mandates the unsealing of grand jury transcripts and other pertinent records [1]. Additionally, at least two civil lawsuits were filed in the Southern District of Florida in 2026 against "Epstein et al" or the "Estate of Jeffrey Epstein et al" [3], which typically involve discovery processes for obtaining evidence. The Epstein estate reached a settlement of up to $35 million with victims in February 2026, which may affect some claims but not all ongoing litigation or document unsealings [4].
The U.S. Virgin Islands court is reviewing Epstein-related file releases. The local court is actively considering the release of Epstein-related files in 2026 [2], indicating a potential for significant disclosures within that jurisdiction. The specific documents for unsealing are subject to ongoing judicial review, with one case on the USVI public portal potentially related [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Federal judge in Florida orders unsealing of grand jury transcripts and records in Epstein investigation | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 2V.I. Court Mulls Releasing Epstein Files | St. John Sourcestjohnsource.com
- 3DOE v. Epstein et al (9:26-cv-80069), Florida Southern District Courtpacermonitor.com
- 4Epstein estate reaches up to $35 million settlement with victims | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 5https://usvipublicportal-api.vicourts.org/courts/87edff36-c02b-4073-aea4-c0652bc123d9/cms/case/fc6d7243-dfc0-474e-bcc8-1c9e44545ba0/docketentrydocuments/8133092a-b1fe-4c04-9aca-0dd76f14f94busvipublicportal-api.vicourts.org
10. Why Do Prediction Markets Target 2026 for Epstein File Releases?
| Justice Dept. Release Anticipated | Beginning in 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Active Legislation | "Epstein Files Transparency Act" (H.R.4405) in 119th Congress (2025-2026) [2] |
| Prediction Market Resolution | Commonly 2026, some specify June 30, 2026 [3] |
The market's 2026 resolution date is primarily linked to Justice Department expectations. As of January 28, 2026, top Justice Department officials publicly indicated their expectation to release Epstein files "soon" [1]. This statement from a key governmental authority directly signals anticipated disclosures within that year, thereby establishing a timeframe for significant developments.
Legislative efforts further support the 2026 timeframe for file releases. The "Epstein Files Transparency Act" (H.R.4405), introduced in the 119th Congress, which spans the years 2025-2026, exemplifies this [2]. This proposed legislation seeks to mandate the release of records related to Jeffrey Epstein, indicating a concentrated legislative push for transparency within this specific period. The consideration and potential passage of such an act could directly prompt or accelerate the release of additional files, contributing to the expectation of resolutions in 2026.
Prediction markets align with these expectations, indicating a specific 2026 deadline. These anticipated governmental actions and legislative initiatives correspond with resolution dates observed in various prediction markets. For instance, markets asking "Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?" [4] and "Epstein client list released by...?" [3] are set to resolve in 2026. Some markets specifically point to a deadline of "June 30" within 2026, suggesting a more precise expectation for the release of information or the culmination of related processes [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Justice Department expects to release its Epstein files soon, top officials say | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 2Text - H.R.4405 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Epstein Files Transparency Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 3Epstein client list released by...? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
- 4Who will be named in newly released Epstein files? [Polymarket] | Manifoldmanifold.markets
- 5Epstein client list released by...? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
