Fed maintains rate
Market Model 98.0% 95.4%
Hike 25bps
Market Model 1.0% 0.7%
Economics Markets
Active Markets (76)
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 56.0% 49.3%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 55.0% 48.3%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 98.0% 98.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 92.0% 92.0%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 71.2%
Above 1.400M
Market Model 81.0% 69.6%
Above 1.375M
Market Model 90.0% 82.8%
Above 6.6%
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Above 7.0%
Market Model 27.0% 29.8%
United Kingdom
Market Model 41.0% 27.9%
China
Market Model 7.9% 6.0%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 6.6%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 5.8%
Above $5.00
Market Model 30.0% 29.3%
Above $6.00
Market Model 7.0% 12.5%
Above 4.3%
Market Model 14.0% 17.1%
Above 4.2%
Market Model 64.0% 66.2%
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 80.5%
Stephen Miran
Market Model 2.0% 0.3%
Jerome Powell
Market Model 4.0% 0.6%
Below $2.90
Market Model 9.0% 19.3%
Below $2.80
Market Model 8.0% 16.1%
At least 4%
Market Model 91.3% 90.0%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 99.1% 98.9%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 40.0% 38.4%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 85.0% 83.0%
Above 3.8%
Market Model 77.0% 78.7%
Above 3.9%
Market Model 71.0% 73.1%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 43.6%
0
Market Model 57.0% 43.3%
4
Market Model 6.0% 17.8%
Exactly 0
Market Model 30.0% 35.4%
Exactly 1
Market Model 32.2% 33.0%
Above $1200
Market Model 5.0% 10.0%
Above $1000
Market Model 78.0% 83.8%
Above $4.50
Market Model 99.0% 98.8%
Above $4.70
Market Model 62.0% 59.1%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 2.0% 1.6%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 97.0% 95.3%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Exactly 0.0%
Market Model 1.0% 0.8%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 83.0% 68.9%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Above 0.5%
Market Model 26.0% 20.0%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 50.0% 39.8%
$7.01 or above
Market Model 39.0% 50.3%
$6.01 or above
Market Model 62.0% 71.2%
Above $7.40
Market Model 42.0% 40.2%
Above $7.60
Market Model 26.0% 27.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Before 2028
Market Model 88.0% 86.3%
Yes
Market Model 65.0% 45.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Before July 2026
Market Model 2.0% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model 90.9% 93.7%
Yes
Market Model 49.2% 48.0%
Above $180 billion
Market Model 15.0% 13.4%
Above $190 billion
Market Model 16.0% 13.4%
Above $200 billion
Market Model 64.0% 64.8%
Above $250 billion
Market Model 43.0% 45.1%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 28.0% 20.0%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 85.0% 75.0%
Below $4.10
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
Below $4.00
Market Model 13.0% 9.3%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 24.0% 13.3%
Cut 50bps
Market Model 80.0% 28.3%
Above $4.00
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Above $4.40
Market Model 41.0% 39.3%
Above $4.80
Market Model 48.9% 50.6%
Above $5.00
Market Model 42.5% 44.6%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 74.0% 72.5%
Hike more than 25bps
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Stagflation
Market Model 32.8% 36.8%
Soft landing
Market Model 16.9% 29.9%
Below $3.40
Market Model 46.0% 24.5%
Below $3.00
Market Model 34.0% 16.9%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 40.0%
Above 2.8%
Market Model 24.0% 18.5%
Above 2.6%
Market Model 57.0% 54.3%
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 2.7%
Below $1.80
Market Model 6.0% 4.7%
Below $2.30
Market Model 28.0% 23.1%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 10.5%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 20.5%
Hike 25bps
Market Model 58.0% 70.8%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 39.0% 26.4%
Above -25000
Market Model 97.0% 95.3%
Above 50000
Market Model 52.0% 41.6%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.2%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 42.0% 21.8%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 54.0% 30.5%
Hike >25bps
Market Model 4.0% 4.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 16.0% 12.3%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 99.3%
$50 trillion
Market Model 55.0% 64.4%
Above 9%
Market Model 52.0% 53.5%
Above 10%
Market Model 35.0% 37.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 6.0% 2.8%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 13.6%
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 83.4%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
At least 14.40M bpd
Market Model 30.0% 14.7%
At least 14.10M bpd
Market Model 63.0% 38.4%
Exactly -0.2%
Market Model 7.0% 6.0%
Exactly -0.1%
Market Model 7.0% 6.0%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Exactly 3.5%
Market Model 5.0% 5.5%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 5.0% 1.2%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 9.0% 6.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Above 5%
Market Model 27.1% 36.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 8.6% 17.0%
0.0 or below
Market Model 2.5% 4.9%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 1.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
0 cuts
Market Model 90.1% 80.9%
1 cuts
Market Model 8.2% 11.1%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 65.5% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 11.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 18.5%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.0% 1.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 20.0% 23.5%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate | 98.0% | 95.4% | High | $15,500,820.79 | Refresh |
| When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2027 | 56.0% | 49.3% | High | $180,504.3 | Refresh |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 98.0% | 98.0% | High | $403,384.61 | Refresh |
| Nvidia H200 chips delivered to China before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 71.2% | Med | $6,992.61 | Refresh |
| US housing starts for May Top outcome: Above 1.400M | 81.0% | 69.6% | High | $32,552.8 | Refresh |
| How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year? Top outcome: Above 6.6% | 81.0% | 78.6% | High | $78,536.04 | Refresh |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 41.0% | 27.9% | Med | $154,109.62 | Refresh |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 16.0% | 19.5% | Med | $2,217,268.81 | Refresh |
| Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 6.6% | Med | $38,541.48 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 9.0% | 5.8% | Med | $300,626.27 | Refresh |
| How high will US gas prices get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $5.00 | 30.0% | 29.3% | High | $308,650.27 | Refresh |
| Inflation in May 2026 (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 4.3% | 14.0% | 17.1% | High | $358,456.36 | Refresh |
| Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? Yes refers to: For tax year 2026 | 64.0% | 80.5% | Med | $9,292.91 | Refresh |
| Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting? Top outcome: Stephen Miran | 2.0% | 0.3% | Med | $84,040.03 | Refresh |
| How low will gas prices in New York get this year? Top outcome: Below $2.90 | 9.0% | 19.3% | High | $11,143.49 | Refresh |
| How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 4% | 91.3% | 90.0% | High | $492,831.43 | Refresh |
| CPI in August Top outcome: Above 0.3% | 40.0% | 38.4% | Med | $9,543.43 | Refresh |
| Inflation in June 2026 (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 3.8% | 77.0% | 78.7% | Med | $33,103.08 | Refresh |
| Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026? Yes refers to: Decline greater than 20% | 25.0% | 43.6% | Med | $1,673.2 | Refresh |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? Top outcome: 0 | 57.0% | 43.3% | High | $27,545.36 | Refresh |
| Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0 | 30.0% | 35.4% | High | $19,243.24 | Refresh |
| How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? Top outcome: Above $1200 | 5.0% | 10.0% | High | $40,154.6 | Refresh |
| How high will gas prices in Florida get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.50 | 99.0% | 98.8% | High | $70,681.43 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 2.0% | 1.6% | High | $266,346.59 | Refresh |
| CPI month-over-month in May 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 12.0% | 12.0% | High | $7,270.29 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 83.0% | 68.9% | High | $34,252.65 | Refresh |
| CPI in June Top outcome: Above 0.5% | 26.0% | 20.0% | High | $19,057.95 | Refresh |
| Highest natural gas spot price in 2026 Top outcome: $7.01 or above | 39.0% | 50.3% | High | $21,811.66 | Refresh |
| How high will gas prices in California get this year? Top outcome: Above $7.40 | 42.0% | 40.2% | High | $57,862.06 | Refresh |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | $404,259.7 | Refresh |
| More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 65.0% | 45.0% | Med | $48,592.36 | Refresh |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 20.0% | 20.1% | Med | $610,251.31 | Refresh |
| More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 90.9% | 93.7% | Med | $31,330,668.58 | Refresh |
| Fed rate cut before 2027? Yes refers to: Cuts | 49.2% | 48.0% | Med | $104,789.29 | Refresh |
| US manufacturing construction spending in December 2026 Top outcome: Above $180 billion | 15.0% | 13.4% | High | $177 | Refresh |
| US tariff revenue for 2026 Top outcome: Above $200 billion | 64.0% | 64.8% | Med | $6,833.58 | Refresh |
| Will Roy Lee become a billionaire before 2029? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 1.0% | 1.1% | Med | $2,362 | Refresh |
| CPI core in June Top outcome: Above 0.3% | 28.0% | 20.0% | High | $191.64 | Refresh |
| How low will gas prices in California get this year? Top outcome: Below $4.10 | 18.0% | 10.5% | High | $28,539.79 | Refresh |
| Bank of Russia rate decision in June Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 24.0% | 13.3% | High | $4,042.77 | Refresh |
| How high will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.00 | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | $141,030.09 | Refresh |
| How high will gas prices in New York get this year? Top outcome: Above $4.80 | 48.9% | 50.6% | High | $18,379.02 | Refresh |
| Bank of Israel rate decision in July Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 74.0% | 72.5% | Med | $1,830.4 | Refresh |
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 Top outcome: Stagflation | 32.8% | 36.8% | High | $22,030.68 | Refresh |
| How low will US gas prices get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $3.40 | 46.0% | 24.5% | High | $5,115.36 | Refresh |
| US credit rating downgrade in 2026? Yes refers to: Rating reduced | 40.0% | 40.0% | Med | $46,129.04 | Refresh |
| Core inflation in May 2026 (Core CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 2.8% | 24.0% | 18.5% | High | $12,335.74 | Refresh |
| U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? Yes refers to: Below 5% | 6.0% | 2.7% | Med | $52,291.88 | Refresh |
| How low will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Below $1.80 | 6.0% | 4.7% | High | $37,342.98 | Refresh |
| Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.5% | Med | $18,623.03 | Refresh |
| Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 18.0% | 20.5% | Med | $3,529 | Refresh |
| Bank of Japan rate decision in June Top outcome: Hike 25bps | 58.0% | 70.8% | High | $15,773.1 | Refresh |
| ADP employment change in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Above -25000 | 97.0% | 95.3% | Med | $1,956 | Refresh |
| Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 7.0% | 6.2% | Med | $1,405 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 42.0% | 21.8% | Med | $65,263.43 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps | 4.0% | 4.7% | High | $936 | Refresh |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 99.3% | High | $66,703 | Refresh |
| How high will unemployment get before 2030? Top outcome: Above 9% | 52.0% | 53.5% | High | $11,384 | Refresh |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | $69,966 | Refresh |
| Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 11.0% | 13.6% | Med | $18,754 | Refresh |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 83.4% | High | $171,344 | Refresh |
| U.S. oil production per day in 2026 Top outcome: At least 14.40M bpd | 30.0% | 14.7% | High | $657 | Refresh |
| CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly -0.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | High | $595,061 | Refresh |
| CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% | High | $708,794 | Refresh |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 5.0% | 1.2% | High | $1,022,794 | Refresh |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | Refresh |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 27.1% | 36.5% | Med | $333,505 | Refresh |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 0.0 or below | 2.5% | 4.9% | High | $64,899 | Refresh |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | Refresh |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 cuts | 90.1% | 80.9% | Med | $67,451 | Refresh |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | Refresh |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 65.5% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | Refresh |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | Refresh |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 1.6% | Med | $40,031 | Refresh |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | $408,091 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (73)
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| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $17,268.31 | ||
| — | — | High | $210,082.16 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,510,549.7 | ||
| — | — | High | $88,099.69 | ||
| — | — | High | $3,620.18 | ||
| — | — | High | $0 | ||
| — | — | High | $8,148.24 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,289.78 | ||
| — | — | High | $8,361.9 | ||
| — | — | High | $14,072.66 | ||
| — | — | High | $340,247.65 | ||
| — | — | Med | $67,203.31 | ||
| — | — | High | $32,484.22 | ||
| — | — | High | $30,487.29 | ||
| — | — | High | $232,424.48 | ||
| — | — | High | $32,168.34 | ||
| — | — | High | $646,864.83 | ||
| — | — | Med | $343,291.99 | ||
| — | — | High | $462,530.23 | ||
| — | — | High | $108,769.44 | ||
| — | — | High | $673,124.41 | ||
| — | — | High | $0 | ||
| — | — | High | $234.71 | ||
| — | — | High | $9,409.92 | ||
| — | — | Med | $4,026.05 | ||
| — | — | Med | $914.21 | ||
| — | — | High | $26,726.54 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,403.29 | ||
| — | — | Med | $82,009.43 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,130.2 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,996.13 | ||
| — | — | High | $30,042.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,068.34 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,166.64 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,141.35 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,821.23 | ||
| — | — | Med | $52,838.06 | ||
| — | — | High | $21,890.75 | ||
| — | — | High | $24,530.8 | ||
| — | — | High | $13,506.54 | ||
| — | — | High | $28,432.01 | ||
| — | — | High | $39,278.26 | ||
| — | — | High | $85,276.58 | ||
| — | — | Med | $23,315.14 | ||
| — | — | Med | $10,972.16 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,746.87 | ||
| — | — | High | $2 | ||
| — | — | High | $408,343.77 | ||
| — | — | High | $784,009 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,848 | ||
| — | — | High | $555,846 | ||
| — | — | Med | $36,670 | ||
| — | — | High | $791,870 | ||
| — | — | High | $650,747 | ||
| — | — | Med | $5,719 | ||
| — | — | Med | $575,935 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,781,097 | ||
| — | — | Med | $201,833 | ||
| — | — | Med | $69,788 | ||
| — | — | Med | $84,580 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,593,605 | ||
| — | — | Med | $3,417,113 | ||
| — | — | Med | $242,507 | ||
| — | — | Med | $395,527 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,022,727 | ||
| — | — | Med | $11,658,168 | ||
| — | — | Med | $226,656 | ||
| — | — | Med | $365,355 | ||
| — | — | Med | $111,120 | ||
| — | — | Med | $178,498 | ||
| — | — | Med | $474,278 | ||
| — | — | Med | $80,293 | ||
| — | — | Med | $461,265 |
