Above 20K
Market Model 86.0% 88.3%
Above 60K
Market Model 62.0% 65.9%
Economics Markets
Active Markets (63)
Above 0.3%
Market Model 20.0% 23.4%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 64.0% 67.1%
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 2.7%
Exactly 0
Market Model 37.4% 18.1%
Exactly 1
Market Model 35.8% 17.0%
Below $1.80
Market Model 6.0% 4.7%
Below $2.30
Market Model 28.0% 23.1%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 85.0% 90.4%
Cut 1-25bps
Market Model 9.0% 9.6%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 5.0% 5.0%
Hike more than 50bp
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 10.5%
Above 1,300,000
Market Model 97.0% 98.1%
Above 1,400,000
Market Model 2.0% 61.1%
Above $670 billion
Market Model 15.0% 24.7%
Above $600 billion
Market Model 99.0% 99.3%
Above 3.60ㅤ
Market Model 96.0% 98.0%
Above 3.90ㅤ
Market Model 81.0% 80.9%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 52.0% 34.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 40.0% 44.8%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 20.5%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 38.9%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 98.0% 92.5%
Hike 1-25bps
Market Model 2.0% 1.7%
Hike 25bps
Market Model 76.0% 70.8%
Maintain current rate
Market Model 29.0% 26.4%
1
Market Model 86.0% 77.7%
0
Market Model 6.0% 3.5%
At least 210000
Market Model 36.0% 48.6%
At least 205000
Market Model 66.0% 76.8%
Above 60,000
Market Model 53.0% 46.6%
Above 125,000
Market Model 24.0% 18.9%
Above -25000
Market Model 97.0% 95.3%
Above 50000
Market Model 52.0% 41.6%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 6.2%
Yes
Market Model 50.0% 60.3%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 3.0% 2.1%
Exactly 3.4%
Market Model 9.0% 6.1%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 42.0% 21.8%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 54.0% 30.5%
Above 0.4%
Market Model 73.0% 55.4%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 88.0% 76.8%
Above 3.6%
Market Model 57.0% 50.3%
Above 3.7%
Market Model 40.0% 34.7%
Hike >25bps
Market Model 4.0% 4.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 16.0% 12.3%
At least 52
Market Model 46.0% 34.8%
At least 51
Market Model 71.0% 60.1%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 99.3%
$50 trillion
Market Model 55.0% 64.4%
Above 9%
Market Model 52.0% 53.5%
Above 10%
Market Model 35.0% 37.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 78.0% 78.3%
Before 2028
Market Model 84.0% 81.9%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 6.0% 2.8%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 13.6%
Elon Musk
Market Model 88.0% 83.4%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 4.0% 3.4%
At least 14.40M bpd
Market Model 30.0% 14.7%
At least 14.10M bpd
Market Model 63.0% 38.4%
Exactly -0.2%
Market Model 7.0% 6.0%
Exactly -0.1%
Market Model 7.0% 6.0%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Exactly 3.5%
Market Model 5.0% 5.5%
Cut >25bps
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 13.0% 10.1%
Before 2027
Market Model 15.0% 2.5%
Before July 2026
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 90.0% 95.0%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 85.0% 85.0%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 5.0% 1.2%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 9.0% 6.5%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 15.0% 4.0%
Exactly 0.2%
Market Model 18.0% 35.0%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 24.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
At least 3%
Market Model 73.0% 73.0%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 37.0% 36.5%
Above 5%
Market Model 46.0% 36.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 24.0% 17.0%
4.1 to 4.5
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 71.2% 86.1%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 15.0% 4.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 86.0% 92.0%
1 cuts
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
0 cuts
Market Model 77.0% 80.9%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 16.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 23.0% 21.5%
United Kingdom
Market Model 34.0% 55.0%
China
Market Model 4.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 84.0% 72.0%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 18.5%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 27.0%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 83.0% 88.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 73.0% 87.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.0% 1.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 20.0% 23.5%
Q1 2026
Market Model 14.0% 50.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 9.0% 30.0%
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US nonfarm payrolls for April 2026 Top outcome: Above 20K | 86.0% | 88.3% | High | $1,213.85 | Refresh |
| Japan inflation rate MoM for April Top outcome: Above 0.3% | 20.0% | 23.4% | High | $2,141.35 | Refresh |
| U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? Yes refers to: Below 5% | 6.0% | 2.7% | Med | $52,291.88 | Refresh |
| Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0 | 37.4% | 18.1% | High | $12,565.83 | Refresh |
| How low will gas prices in Texas get this year? Top outcome: Below $1.80 | 6.0% | 4.7% | High | $37,342.98 | Refresh |
| Bank of England rate decision in April Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 85.0% | 90.4% | High | $5,821.23 | Refresh |
| Central Bank of Brazil Rate Decision in April Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 5.0% | 5.0% | Med | $52,838.06 | Refresh |
| Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.5% | Med | $18,623.03 | Refresh |
| USD/IRR on April 30, 2026 Top outcome: Above 1,300,000 | 97.0% | 98.1% | High | $21,890.75 | Refresh |
| Elon Musk net worth on April 30 (Bloomberg) Top outcome: Above $670 billion | 15.0% | 24.7% | High | $24,530.8 | Refresh |
| Jet fuel prices for the week ending April 24, 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.60ㅤ | 96.0% | 98.0% | High | $13,506.54 | Refresh |
| Bank of Mexico rate decision in May Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 52.0% | 34.0% | High | $28,432.01 | Refresh |
| Will Michigan consumer sentiment go above 65 in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 18.0% | 20.5% | Med | $3,529 | Refresh |
| Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 24.0% | 38.9% | Med | $13,456.03 | Refresh |
| European Central Bank rate decision in April Top outcome: Maintain current rate | 98.0% | 92.5% | High | $39,278.26 | Refresh |
| Bank of Japan rate decision in June Top outcome: Hike 25bps | 76.0% | 70.8% | High | $15,773.1 | Refresh |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? Top outcome: 1 | 86.0% | 77.7% | High | $85,276.58 | Refresh |
| Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026 Top outcome: At least 210000 | 36.0% | 48.6% | Med | $23,315.14 | Refresh |
| Jobs numbers in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 60,000 | 53.0% | 46.6% | High | $97,409.16 | Refresh |
| ADP employment change in Oct 2026? Top outcome: Above -25000 | 97.0% | 95.3% | Med | $1,956 | Refresh |
| Will Kai Cenat become a billionaire before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 7.0% | 6.2% | Med | $1,405 | Refresh |
| More white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 50.0% | 60.3% | Med | $39,669.04 | Refresh |
| CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | High | $408,343.77 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 42.0% | 21.8% | Med | $65,263.43 | Refresh |
| CPI in April Top outcome: Above 0.4% | 73.0% | 55.4% | High | $119,073.08 | Refresh |
| Inflation in Apr 2026 (CPI YoY) Top outcome: Above 3.6% | 57.0% | 50.3% | High | $63,131.94 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps | 4.0% | 4.7% | High | $936 | Refresh |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI in April 2026 Top outcome: At least 52 | 46.0% | 34.8% | High | $2,848 | Refresh |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 99.3% | High | $66,703 | Refresh |
| How high will unemployment get before 2030? Top outcome: Above 9% | 52.0% | 53.5% | High | $11,384 | Refresh |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 78.0% | 78.3% | High | $394,734 | Refresh |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 10.0% | 5.0% | High | $69,966 | Refresh |
| Will Trump bring back manufacturing? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 11.0% | 13.6% | Med | $18,754 | Refresh |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 88.0% | 83.4% | High | $171,344 | Refresh |
| U.S. oil production per day in 2026 Top outcome: At least 14.40M bpd | 30.0% | 14.7% | High | $657 | Refresh |
| CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly -0.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | High | $595,061 | Refresh |
| CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 7.0% | 4.0% | High | $708,794 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 12.0% | 7.8% | High | $377,365 | Refresh |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 2.5% | Med | $1,203,085 | Refresh |
| How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.0% | 90.0% | 95.0% | Med | $167,316 | Refresh |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 5.0% | 1.2% | High | $1,022,794 | Refresh |
| CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 15.0% | 4.0% | High | $204,761 | Refresh |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 24.0% | 24.5% | Med | $462,943 | Refresh |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 7.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | Refresh |
| How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 3% | 73.0% | 73.0% | Med | $61,885 | Refresh |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 46.0% | 36.5% | Med | $333,505 | Refresh |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | High | $64,899 | Refresh |
| More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 71.2% | 86.1% | Med | $229,780 | Refresh |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 15.0% | 4.5% | Med | $201,833 | Refresh |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 12.0% | 11.1% | Med | $67,451 | Refresh |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | Refresh |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 16.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | Refresh |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 34.0% | 55.0% | Med | $89,415 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 84.0% | 72.0% | Med | $67,649 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 23.0% | 27.0% | Med | $132,837 | Refresh |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | Refresh |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 83.0% | 88.0% | Med | $43,054 | Refresh |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 1.6% | Med | $40,031 | Refresh |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q1 2026 | 14.0% | 50.0% | Med | $408,091 | Refresh |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Yes refers to: Above 4.7% | 4.0% | 9.5% | Med | $474,278 | Refresh |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Yes refers to: Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $80,293 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (24)
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $10,972.16 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $11,746.87 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $2 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $784,009 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $555,846 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $36,670 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $791,870 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $650,747 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $5,719 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $575,935 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $2,781,097 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $69,788 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $84,580 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $2,593,605 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $3,417,113 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $242,507 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $395,527 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $11,022,727 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $11,658,168 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $226,656 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $365,355 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $111,120 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $178,498 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $461,265 | Refresh |
