Before 2027
Market Model 15.0% 28.0%
Before July 2026
Market Model 6.0% 22.0%
Economics Markets
Active Markets (38)
Cut >25bps
Market Model 13.0% 11.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 36.0% 32.9%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 5.0% 2.3%
Exactly 0.2%
Market Model 17.0% 15.4%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 6.0% 2.3%
Exactly 3.4%
Market Model 6.0% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 24.5%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
At least 3%
Market Model 73.0% 73.0%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 39.0% 36.5%
Above 5%
Market Model 38.0% 36.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 18.0% 17.0%
4.1 to 4.5
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 71.2% 86.1%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 28.0% 27.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 13.0% 11.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 97.5%
$50 trillion
Market Model 53.0% 52.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 79.0% 78.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 85.0% 84.0%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
Elon Musk
Market Model 90.0% 87.1%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 18.0% 4.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 86.0% 92.0%
Above 0.2%
Market Model 56.0% 60.0%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 13.0% 22.0%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 12.0% 70.0%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 98.0% 99.0%
1 cuts
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
0 cuts
Market Model 75.0% 80.9%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 16.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 23.0% 21.5%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 2.0% 0.4%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 4.0% 1.8%
United Kingdom
Market Model 34.0% 55.0%
China
Market Model 8.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 79.0% 72.0%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 18.5%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 27.0%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 73.0% 87.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 1.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 25.0% 23.5%
Q2 2025
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 5.0% 30.0%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 98.0% 92.8%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 3.0% 5.2%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 100.0% 97.7%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 85.0% 95.6%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Above 2.75%
Market Model 100.0% 99.0%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 6.0% 1.5%
More than 140% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 28.0% | Med | $1,179,285 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 13.0% | 11.0% | High | $153,734 | Ask |
| CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | High | $203,514 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | High | $298,090 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 25.0% | 24.5% | Med | $462,943 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 10.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | Ask |
| How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 3% | 73.0% | 73.0% | Med | $61,885 | Ask |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 38.0% | 36.5% | Med | $333,505 | Ask |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | High | $64,899 | Ask |
| More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 71.2% | 86.1% | Med | $229,780 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 28.0% | 27.0% | Med | $61,429 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 97.5% | Med | $61,983 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 79.0% | 78.5% | Med | $343,555 | Ask |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 90.0% | 87.1% | High | $149,740 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 18.0% | 4.5% | Med | $201,833 | Ask |
| CPI in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.2% | 56.0% | 60.0% | Med | $69,788 | Ask |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 12.0% | 70.0% | Med | $84,580 | Ask |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 12.0% | 11.1% | Med | $67,451 | Ask |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 16.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | Med | $1,018,640 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 34.0% | 55.0% | Med | $89,415 | Ask |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 79.0% | 72.0% | Med | $67,649 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 23.0% | 27.0% | Med | $132,837 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | Ask |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 87.0% | 88.0% | Med | $43,054 | Ask |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 1.6% | Med | $40,031 | Ask |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q2 2025 | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $408,091 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate | 98.0% | 92.8% | High | $11,022,727 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | Ask |
| How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.0% | 100.0% | 97.7% | Med | $165,619 | Ask |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 1.0% | 1.0% | Med | $226,656 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 6.0% | 1.5% | Med | $178,498 | Ask |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Yes refers to: Above 4.7% | 14.0% | 9.5% | Med | $474,278 | Ask |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Yes refers to: Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $80,293 | Ask |
Expired Markets (6)
Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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