How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- The market already excludes fewer than four bills signed.
- Midterm Aprils historically average 14 to 16 presidential bill signings.
- President Trump previously signed a high volume of minor legislation.
- House Republicans indicate strong alignment with a Trump legislative agenda.
- Senate pragmatism and midterm campaigning could limit bill volume.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 36.0% | 33.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| 4 | 59.0% | 50.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| 6 | 6.0% | 9.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| 7 | 4.0% | 7.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 4
๐ April 28, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 59.0%
๐ April 18, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 25.0%
Outcome: 7
๐ April 27, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 15.0% to 2.0%
Outcome: 5
๐ April 24, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0%
๐ April 23, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 46.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if President Trump signs exactly 4 bills into law in April 2026, otherwise it resolves to NO. Joint resolutions are included in the count, and the outcome is verified by the White House and Library of Congress. The market opened on April 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and will close early if the event occurs, or by May 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | $0.58 | $0.46 | 59% |
| 5 | $0.41 | $0.64 | 36% |
| 6 | $0.08 | $0.98 | 6% |
| 7 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Does Government Control Affect Bill Signings in Midterm Aprils?
| Average Bills Signed (Divided Govt) | 15.8 bills [^] |
|---|---|
| Average Bills Signed (Unified Govt) | 14.0 bills [^] |
| Standard Deviation (Divided Govt) | 5.9 bills [^] |
6. When Were SBIR/STTR Programs Reauthorized by Congress in 2026?
| Programs Reauthorized | Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) [^] |
|---|---|
| Reauthorization Date | April 1, 2026 [^] |
| New Authorization Expiration | September 30, 2030 [^] |
7. What Proportion of Laws Are Minor or Symbolic?
8. How Do Republicans Align with a Potential Trump Legislative Agenda?
| House Republican Alignment | United and in sync with Trump's Day One Agenda [^] |
|---|---|
| Senate Leader's Role | Help Trump administration understand 'what's realistic' in the Senate [^] |
| Senate Independent Action | May push legislation 'despite Trump opposition,' risking a veto [^] |
9. How Might Trump's 2026 Midterm Campaign Affect Bill Signings?
| Bills Signed (First 100 Days) | 28 [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Bills Signed (June 2017) | 40 [^] |
| April 2026 (Midterm Context) | Six months prior to November 2026 elections [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 01, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-3.0: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-2.0: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-1.0: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-0.0: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26MAR-10T: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
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