Will the DNC release the 2024 autopsy report?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: the DNC releasing the 2024 autopsy report before Nov 3, 2026, at 24.6% model vs 44.0% market, suggesting the market may be overestimating the likelihood given the DNC's December 2025 announcement that it would not release the full report.
1. Executive Verdict
- The DNC announced in December 2025 it would not release the 2024 autopsy report.
- DNC Chair Ken Martin consistently maintains the decision against releasing the report.
- Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly informed DNC Chair Martin.
- Prominent Democrats and grassroots groups demand the report's release.
- The 2024 autopsy report was reportedly "scrapped" in December 2025.
- Autopsy contains broad controversial conclusions beyond Israel/Gaza findings.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 14.0% | 7.1% | The DNC officially announced in December 2025 that it would not release the 2024 autopsy report. |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 30.0% | 15.7% | The DNC officially announced in December 2025 that it would not release the 2024 autopsy report. |
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 44.0% | 24.6% | The DNC officially announced in December 2025 that it would not release the 2024 autopsy report. |
Current Context
DNC leadership has opted to withhold the 2024 election autopsy report. DNC Chair Ken Martin announced in December 2025 that the comprehensive review of the 2024 election was complete, but stated that making the report public would be a "distraction" from the party's core mission of winning future elections [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. He has consistently maintained that releasing the full autopsy would constitute "navel-gazing" and divert focus from upcoming elections, specifically the 2026 midterms [^].
A leaked key finding has intensified calls for transparency. An Axios report in February 2026 revealed that the autopsy concluded the Biden administration's support for Israel in the Gaza conflict was a "net-negative" for the Democrats and significantly contributed to Kamala Harris's loss in the presidential election [^][^][^][^][^]. This particular finding has fueled calls from progressive groups, such as RootsAction and the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), for the DNC to release the full, unredacted report, emphasizing the need for transparency and accountability [^][^][^].
Debates persist over the report's release amidst differing viewpoints. Several political analysts, former Democratic strategists, and Democratic officials, including Senator Brian Schatz, have criticized the DNC's decision, arguing that a lack of transparency hinders the party's ability to learn from mistakes and rebuild trust with grassroots activists and donors [^][^][^][^][^]. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has privately indicated she has "no problem with a public airing" of the report, although she has not publicly called for its release [^]. Election Day for the 2024 election was November 5, 2024, following the Democratic National Convention from August 19-22, 2024 [^][^][^][^]. As of early May 2026, a model assigned lower odds (44.5%) for the report's release before November 3, 2026, compared to the market's odds (67.0%), primarily due to the DNC Chair's firm opposition [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has experienced a decisive downward trend, with the probability of the DNC releasing its 2024 autopsy report falling from a starting point of 57.0% to its current price of 14.0%. The most dramatic price action occurred in early May 2026. On May 5, the price dropped 26 percentage points after DNC Chair Ken Martin reportedly reiterated in April 2026 that the party would not release the report, reinforcing a stance he announced in December 2025. This was followed by an 18-point drop on May 6, driven by a news report from NBC News which stated the DNC "won't release" the postmortem, a position a DNC official is reported to have confirmed.
The total trading volume of over 14,600 contracts suggests significant market interest and conviction, particularly during the major price declines. From a technical standpoint, the market found temporary support around the 33.0% level before breaking down sharply. The current price is testing the market's all-time low around 13.0-15.0%, which may now serve as a new support floor. Overall, the price chart indicates a strong and growing market consensus that the DNC will not release the report. The initial sentiment, which priced the event as more likely than not, has completely reversed in response to definitive statements from party leadership, with the current low price reflecting a strong belief that the decision to withhold the document is final.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026
📉 May 06, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 52.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The primary driver was a traditional news report from NBC News, which stated that the DNC "won't release" its completed postmortem of the 2024 election, a position confirmed by a DNC official [^]. This definitive statement directly indicated that the report would not be released, significantly reducing the probability of the outcome "Before Aug 1, 2026" [^]. The official DNC stance from this report likely coincided with the 18.0 percentage point drop in the market on May 06, 2026, as it directly contradicted the market's premise [^]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver based on the available information.
Outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026
📉 May 05, 2026: 26.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 33.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the prediction market price drop was DNC Chair Ken Martin's reiteration in April 2026 that the party would not publicly release its 2024 election autopsy report, calling a focus on it "navel gazing" [^]. This statement reinforced his earlier announcement in December 2025, emphasizing the DNC's commitment to implementing lessons internally rather than public disclosure [^][^][^]. Occurring shortly before the May 05, 2026 movement, this clear stance from the DNC Chair diminished the perceived likelihood of the report's public release before June 1, 2026, causing the "Before Jun 1, 2026" outcome's price to drop. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement, as the driver was a public statement reported in traditional news.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the Democratic National Committee (DNC) releases a comprehensive, full, and intentionally public post-election report of the 2024 election before November 3, 2026, verifiable by specified news sources. If the DNC fails to release such a report under these conditions by the deadline, the market resolves to "No". The market closes early upon the report's public release, or by November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST if no release occurs.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | $0.41 | $0.60 | 44% |
Market Discussion
The market currently predicts a low probability of the DNC releasing its 2024 autopsy report, with a 44% chance by November 3, 2026, and only 14% by June 1, 2026. The main argument for 'NO' is that the DNC would likely avoid releasing a report that could be critical of its leadership or handling of controversial issues like the Gaza conflict. There are no notable arguments or discussion points presented in favor of a 'YES' outcome.
5. What specific actions from major Democratic figures or allied groups could compel DNC Chair Ken Martin to release the 2024 autopsy report before the November 2026 midterms?
| Kamala Harris's Stance | Told donors DNC should release its "buried autopsy" of the 2024 campaign [^] |
|---|---|
| RootsAction Petition Reach | Over 9,000 emails from nearly 2,000 people [^] |
| Potential for Escalation | Via institutional votes or resolutions ahead of 2026 [^][^] |
Prominent Democrats and grassroots groups are demanding the 2024 autopsy report's release. Vice President Kamala Harris has reportedly informed donors that the DNC should release its "buried autopsy" from the 2024 campaign, noting that DNC Chair Ken Martin had promised to disclose the findings but has kept them confidential [^]. Further escalating this pressure, the grassroots organization RootsAction initiated a petition, receiving over 9,000 emails from nearly 2,000 individuals, and conducted protest actions around a DNC meeting [^]. Public figures like Pod Save America host Jon Favreau have also repeatedly questioned Martin publicly regarding the report's release, highlighting his shifting rationales for withholding it [^][^][^]. The demand for transparency also resonates within the DNC, as member Representative Delia C. Ramirez (D-Illinois) stated that advocates are calling for the report's release and that its results should be confronted publicly [^].
Secrecy surrounding the report raises questions about DNC leadership. The confidential handling of the autopsy has become a flashpoint, with some donors, operatives, and DNC members reportedly questioning Martin's leadership, and his handling of the report being a key criticism [^]. This situation suggests the potential for escalation through institutional votes or resolutions before the November 2026 midterms [^][^].
6. What is the extent of public support for the report's release among sitting Democratic officials and DNC members, beyond early calls from figures like Senator Brian Schatz?
| Senator Brian Schatz's Stance | Publicly called for release of DNC 2024 autopsy report [^] |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris's View | Expressed no problem with DNC releasing the report [^] |
| DNC Members Supporting Release | More than a dozen DNC members, including Rep. Delia Ramirez and Anderson Clayton [^] |
Several Democratic officials and DNC members have expressed support for releasing the 2024 autopsy report. Senator Brian Schatz publicly advocated for its release [^]. Former Vice President Kamala Harris indicated to allies and donors that she had no issue with the DNC releasing the report [^], though she was reportedly unaware of DNC Chair Ken Martin's prior decision not to release it [^]. Additionally, more than a dozen DNC members, including Rep. Delia Ramirez and North Carolina Democratic Party chair Anderson Clayton, have called for the report's release [^].
However, opinions within the Democratic Party regarding the report's release are not uniform. Senator Richard Blumenthal expressed that transparency is generally good but was unfamiliar with the specifics of why the report was not released [^]. In contrast, Senator Peter Welch suggested an openness to keeping the report internal to the party [^].
7. How do the stated arguments of DNC Chair Ken Martin for withholding the report contrast with those of progressive groups like RootsAction for its immediate release?
| DNC Chair's Reason for Non-Release | Prevent distraction from winning, avoid blame, no "smoking gun" [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| RootsAction's Reason for Release | Help understand voter desires, accountability [^][^] |
| Previous DNC Indication | Previously indicated a release would happen [^][^][^] |
DNC Chair Ken Martin and progressive group RootsAction hold opposing views on the release of the 2024 DNC autopsy report. Martin argues against releasing the full report to prevent distraction from winning, to avoid a "blame dynamic" within the party, and because he believes there is "no smoking gun" [^][^][^]. His position prioritizes maintaining focus on upcoming elections and avoiding internal tensions, despite previously indicating a release would occur [^][^][^].
Progressive groups advocate immediate release for transparency and accountability. In contrast, RootsAction advocates for the immediate release of the report, asserting that "now is not a time for saving face" and that transparency is crucial for the party [^][^]. They argue that releasing the autopsy would help the party comprehend voter desires for future elections and hold leadership accountable, characterizing the withholding of the report as "political malpractice" [^][^].
8. What is the timeline of key DNC meetings and strategic decision points leading up to the November 2026 midterms where the autopsy's release could be debated or decided?
| Autopsy Report Status | Scrapped (December 2025 [^]) |
|---|---|
| DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting | January 31, 2026 [^] |
| DNC Meeting New Orleans | April 9-11, 2026 [^][^] |
The DNC's 2024 autopsy report is not expected to be publicly released. The report was reportedly "scrapped" in December 2025 [^], with DNC Chair Ken Martin consistently opposing its public release. This opposition stems from concerns about fostering internal conflict and potentially distracting from the 2026 midterm elections [^][^][^][^]. While the full report will not be made public, some of its conclusions are being integrated into the DNC's internal strategic planning for the 2026 elections [^][^][^]. The public release of the report itself is not an anticipated topic for debate or decision, a stance also reflected in prediction markets [^].
Key DNC meetings outline the strategic timeline for the 2026 midterms. These gatherings include a DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting on January 31, 2026 [^], and a DNC meeting held in New Orleans, Louisiana, from April 9-11, 2026 [^][^]. The DNC Executive Committee also convened around April 11, 2026 [^][^]. A DNC Summer meeting is anticipated in Austin, Texas, in Summer 2026 [^][^]. At these meetings, the party focuses on initiatives such as the "Battleground Leadership Project" and "BlueMatch," launched in December 2025 [^], the "2026 DNC Playbook," released in March 2026 [^], and ongoing efforts including "NextWave Regional Bootcamps" and "When We Count Fellowship" [^], all aimed at mobilizing for the 2026 elections. These forums allow for strategic planning where the internal conclusions of the autopsy could be discussed for implementation [^][^][^].
9. Beyond the Israel/Gaza findings leaked to Axios, what other potentially controversial conclusions could the 2024 autopsy contain that would increase pressure for its release if leaked?
| Scope of DNC review | Included “hundreds of interviews” [^] |
|---|---|
| Key issues needing responsiveness | Immigration and the economy [^] |
| Tactics questioned in report | “Peer-to-peer text messaging” and “door-knocking quotas” [^] |
The DNC's 2024 autopsy includes broad controversial conclusions. Beyond the Israel/Gaza findings, these conclusions stem from internal self-criticism regarding campaign execution and political responsiveness. Contentious areas addressed include revamping campaign organizing, improving outreach to young voters, and enhancing responsiveness on critical issues such as immigration and the economy [^].
The review identified specific tactical and credibility challenges. Incorporating “hundreds of interviews,” the DNC review aimed to improve responsiveness on issues where Democrats were perceived as defensive or lacking credibility, particularly immigration and the economy [^]. Officials indicated the report's "prescriptions were more tactical than strategic," questioning the effectiveness of methods like "peer-to-peer text messaging" and "door-knocking quotas." These specific operational challenges are politically sensitive, as they could shift blame toward staff or consultants [^].
DNC leadership harbors significant concerns about the report's release. This internal self-criticism concerning campaign organizing, messaging credibility, and outreach tactics represents substantial content within the report. DNC Chair Ken Martin has reportedly expressed concerns that publishing the report could cause distractions or political risks, implying the document contains controversial information that could lead to targeted accountability claims if leaked [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced in December 2025 that it would not release the full 2024 election autopsy report, despite earlier indications [^] [^] [^] [^] . DNC Chair Ken Martin stated that making the report public would be a "distraction" from efforts to win upcoming elections, particularly the 2026 midterms [^][^][^][^][^]. This decision has generated controversy and criticism, with some arguing it signals a lack of transparency and an attempt to avoid difficult truths, even amid calls for transparency from within and outside the party [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Reports suggest the secret DNC autopsy concluded that the Biden administration's support for Israel's actions in Gaza significantly cost Kamala Harris support in the 2024 election [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] , as reported by Axios in February 2026 [^] . Other analyses also highlighted long-term economic frustrations, a fractured Democratic coalition, and right-wing media investments as contributing factors to the 2024 outcome [^]. The report is also believed to have avoided contentious questions about Joe Biden's decision to run for re-election and the process of selecting Harris as his replacement [^][^].
The continued withholding of the report, especially with leaked information suggesting internal party weaknesses, could be seen as bearish for Democratic prospects in 2026 by prediction markets [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Some analyses suggest that keeping the report under wraps specifically benefits former Vice President Harris by shielding potentially damaging information about her 2024 campaign, which could be relevant for a potential 2028 presidential run [^][^][^]. The report's findings regarding issues like the Gaza war could embolden progressive and "uncommitted" movements within the Democratic party [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 08, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced in December 2025 that it would not release the full 2024 election autopsy report, despite earlier indications [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: DNC Chair Ken Martin stated that making the report public would be a "distraction" from efforts to win upcoming elections, particularly the 2026 midterms [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This decision has generated controversy and criticism, with some arguing it signals a lack of transparency and an attempt to avoid difficult truths, even amid calls for transparency from within and outside the party [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Reports suggest the secret DNC autopsy concluded that the Biden administration's support for Israel's actions in Gaza significantly cost Kamala Harris support in the 2024 election [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] , as reported by Axios in February 2026 [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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