Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Thom Tillis to vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Deeper Medicaid cuts critically influence Senator Collins' vote.
- Rand Paul is expected to oppose the FY2026 reconciliation bill.
- Collins and Murkowski consistently opposed budget reconciliation since 2021.
- A FY2026 reconciliation bill with $72B immigration funding was scored May 5, 2026.
- Budget resolution passed Senate April 23 and House April 29, 2026.
- Murkowski's likelihood of a 'Yes' vote dropped around May 7, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thom Tillis | 92.0% | 89.4% | Thom Tillis is expected to vote in favor of the upcoming budget reconciliation bill. |
| Lisa Murkowski | 11.0% | 2.9% | Lisa Murkowski is unlikely to support the budget reconciliation bill. |
| Rand Paul | 18.0% | 5.6% | Rand Paul is unlikely to vote for the budget reconciliation bill. |
| John Fetterman | 45.0% | 32.0% | John Fetterman's support for the budget reconciliation bill appears uncertain. |
| Mitch McConnell | 85.0% | 80.2% | Mitch McConnell is expected to vote for the budget reconciliation bill. |
Current Context
Congress recently approved a budget resolution, initiating the reconciliation process. The budget resolution passed the Senate with a 50-48 vote, with Senators Paul and Murkowski, along with Democrats, voting against it [^][^][^]. The House also adopted the resolution by a 215-211 margin, largely with Republican support [^][^]. Drafts for the reconciliation bill from the Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committees (HSGAC) were released by May 5, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scoring them to have a $72 billion deficit impact [^].
The reconciliation bill aims for passage with a simple majority. This legislative effort targets final passage by June 1, 2026. Importantly, only a simple 51-vote majority is required in the Senate for its approval, circumventing the filibuster [^]. This streamlined process means that every individual senator's vote will be particularly critical for the bill's success.
Senator Susan Collins' vote is a key focus for this bill. A previous 2025 reconciliation bill passed the Senate by a 51-50 vote, where Senators Collins, Tillis, and Paul voted no, and a Vance tie-breaker was utilized [^]. Current market activity specifically tracks whether Senator Collins will vote "YES" on the upcoming reconciliation bill before 2027 [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market experienced a dramatic and decisive price collapse. It opened with a high probability of 80.0%, suggesting strong initial confidence that Senator Murkowski would vote for the bill. However, on May 07, 2026, the price plummeted 69 percentage points to just 11.0%. Since this drop, the price has stabilized and remained flat at this new low. The overall trend is sharply downward, defined almost entirely by this single repricing event. The 11.0% level has now become a firm support floor for the market, while the opening price of 80.0% represents a distant historical high.
The significant price drop appears to be a direct reaction to recent legislative events. According to the provided context, the Senate recently passed a budget resolution, which is a key step before the final reconciliation bill. Senator Murkowski was one of two Republicans reported to have voted against that initial resolution. The market's sharp decline from an 80% to an 11% probability strongly suggests that traders interpreted her vote against the preliminary measure as a clear signal she will not support the final reconciliation bill, causing a swift and severe reassessment of the likelihood of her "Yes" vote.
The total trading volume is moderate at 1,452 contracts, but the data indicates zero volume during the massive price drop on May 07. This suggests the price change may have been the result of a market maker adjustment or a small number of trades rather than a high-volume sell-off. The subsequent stability at 11.0% reflects a new market consensus. Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, pricing in a very low probability that Senator Murkowski will vote for the final bill, a complete reversal from the initial optimism.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Rand Paul
📉 May 08, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 34.0% to 18.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 16.0 percentage point drop in Rand Paul's predicted vote on May 08, 2026, was the traditional news announcement that Senate Committees released the full $72 billion budget reconciliation spending package on May 07, 2026 [^]. This release occurred just one day before the market movement. Given Paul's previous "no" vote on the budget resolution on April 23, 2026 [^][^], and the failure of his amendments to offset costs [^][^], the release of the final spending details likely solidified market expectations that he would vote against the bill. Social media cannot be assessed as a driver because no relevant activity was identified in the provided sources.
Outcome: Lisa Murkowski
📉 May 07, 2026: 69.0pp drop
Price decreased from 80.0% to 11.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify any specific event, social media activity, or news announcement on May 07, 2026, that would cause a 69.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Lisa Murkowski [^][^][^][^]. While Senator Murkowski did not vote for the budget resolution that passed on April 23, 2026, laying the groundwork for the reconciliation bill, her stated opposition was based on process concerns rather than funding [^][^][^][^]. No evidence of social media posts from key figures or major news outlets related to this specific price movement on the date in question was found [^][^][^][^]. Based on the available information, social media was irrelevant, and the primary driver for the specified market movement is not supported by the provided research.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Senator Susan Collins votes for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate before January 1, 2027; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The qualifying vote must be the first final vote on the bill in the full Senate chamber, excluding procedural motions like to proceed or invoke cloture. Resolution is verified from Congress.gov, and any post-announcement requests to alter a vote will not be considered.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thom Tillis | $0.93 | $0.08 | 92% |
| Mitch McConnell | $0.91 | $0.15 | 85% |
| John Fetterman | $0.12 | $0.89 | 45% |
| Rand Paul | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Lisa Murkowski | $0.15 | $0.86 | 11% |
| Susan Collins | $0.80 | $0.21 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The Senate passed S.Con.Res. 33 along party lines 52-46 on April 21, 2026, advancing a reconciliation bill draft focused on Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and immigration funding, including $3.5 billion for CBP and $71.7 billion for ICE/Immigration/Homeland, which the CBO scored as adding a $72 billion deficit through 2035 [^][^]. The Republican goal is party-line passage for this bill amid ongoing DHS shutdowns, though a prior similar measure passed the Senate 51-50 with three GOP defections and a Vice President tiebreaker [^][^][^][^].
5. What specific provisions or deficit impact levels in the final 2026 reconciliation bill could sway key moderate votes like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski?
| Medicaid Cuts Sticking Point | Required Vice President tie-breaker for 2025 reconciliation bill [^] |
|---|---|
| Uninsured Increase from H.R.1 | 10 million by 2034 [^][^] |
| FY2026 Reconciliation Deficit | $72 billion over a decade, $94 billion with interest [^] |
Deeper Medicaid cuts critically influence Senator Collins' vote. During the 2025 passage of a Senate reconciliation bill, deeper Medicaid cuts were a significant point of contention for Senator Collins and others, necessitating a Vice President tie-breaker [^]. The previously enacted H.R.1 in July 2025 included reductions in taxes and spending cuts across Medicaid, CHIP, Marketplace, and Medicare, which were projected to increase the number of uninsured by 10 million by 2034 [^][^]. Therefore, similar health care spending cuts in the 2026 reconciliation bill could be a critical factor for her vote.
Collins also considers fiscal responsibility; Murkowski's specifics are limited. Senator Collins favors 'fiscally responsible' bipartisan spending bills [^]. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) scoring of the FY2026 reconciliation draft indicated it would increase deficits by $72 billion over a decade, totaling $94 billion with interest [^]. This contrasts with H.R.1, whose permanent tax provisions were estimated to increase deficits by $4.5 trillion from 2025 to 2034, including $687 billion in debt service [^]. While her concern for fiscal responsibility is noted, the precise deficit impact level that would sway her vote for or against the 2026 bill is not specified. For Lisa Murkowski, the available information does not specify exact provisions or deficit impact levels that would sway her, beyond her opposition to a SAVE Act voter ID amendment in the 2026 budget process due to reconciliation limitations, an overuse of reconciliation which Senator Collins also opposes [^][^].
6. What public statements and past voting patterns from Rand Paul support the market consensus that he will oppose the FY2026 reconciliation bill?
| FY2026 Senate Budget Resolution Vote | NO on April 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| GOP No-Votes on Budget Resolution | Two, including Paul [^][^] |
| HSGAC Immigration Funding | $32.5B on May 4, 2026 [^] |
Rand Paul's opposition to the FY2026 reconciliation bill is widely anticipated. This expectation is consistent with his NO vote on the FY2026 Senate budget resolution, which passed 50-48 on April 23, 2026 [^]. Paul was one of only two Republican senators who voted against the resolution, publicly criticizing it as a 'farce' and a mechanism to bypass standard processes, leading to increased spending and deficits [^].
Paul consistently opposes substantial increases in funding for immigration agencies. On May 4, 2026, Chairman Paul released the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC) reconciliation text, which proposed $32.5 billion for immigration funding [^]. This allocation was $37.5 billion less than the maximum allowable [^]. His historical voting record, including opposition to similar measures in the previous year's reconciliation, further supports his continued stance against significant boosts in immigration agency funding [^].
7. How do the voting records of Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski compare on budget reconciliation and major spending bills since 2021?
| Senator Collins' reconciliation votes | Against Biden ARP in 2021 and IRA in 2022 (per reports [^]) |
|---|---|
| Senator Murkowski's 2026 budget vote | Voted against 2026 budget resolution (passed 50-48) due to ICE funding concerns [^] |
| Senator Collins' FY26 funding votes | Led passage of FY26 funding packages with votes such as 71-29 [^] and 82-15 [^] |
Both Senator Susan Collins and Senator Lisa Murkowski have consistently opposed budget reconciliation. Senator Collins voted against advancing the Biden American Rescue Plan in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 [^]. She explicitly warned against using reconciliation for Department of Homeland Security funding, arguing it would eliminate amendments and transfer congressional authority [^]. Senator Murkowski similarly voted against the 2026 budget resolution, which passed 50-48, specifically citing concerns that reconciliation would bypass annual oversight for multi-year Immigration and Customs Enforcement funding [^]. Her official website also indicates her vote against a $3.5 trillion tax-and-spend reconciliation measure, though she has supported certain bipartisan budget agreements [^].
Senator Collins demonstrated leadership in bipartisan appropriations, while both senators rejected a voter ID amendment. As chair of the Appropriations Committee, Senator Collins guided the passage of FY26 funding packages with strong bipartisan support, reflected in votes such as 71-29 for one package and 82-15 for another [^][^]. Additionally, both Senator Collins and Senator Murkowski jointly voted against Kennedy's SAVE voter ID amendment, which was part of the Republican budget plan in 2026 [^].
8. What are the key procedural deadlines and potential negotiation points between House and Senate Republicans before the target June 2026 final vote?
| Senate Resolution Passage | April 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Reconciliation Funding | $70B [^] |
| CBO Score (FY2026-2035) | $72B [^] |
The Senate advanced a budget resolution with specific reconciliation instructions. On April 23, 2026, the Senate passed a budget resolution that included reconciliation instructions directing $70 billion in funding for ICE and CBP, with a deadline of May 15, 2026, for committees to submit their proposals [^]. The overarching goal is to present the final bill to the President by June 1, 2026. Draft legislation from Senate committees related to this funding was subsequently scored by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) at an estimated cost of $72 billion for the fiscal years 2026-2035 [^].
House inaction and internal dissent complicate the legislative timeline. A significant procedural hurdle remains in the House of Representatives, which had not yet passed a corresponding budget resolution by late April 2026, leading House Republican leaders to actively seek broader support for the measure [^][^]. Furthermore, the Senate's budget resolution encountered internal opposition from within its own Republican ranks, specifically from Senators Murkowski (R-AK) and Paul (R-KY), continuing a pattern of dissent previously observed from Senators Collins and Tillis [^][^][^]. The already tight legislative schedule is further constrained by the House recess planned for July 29, 2026 [^].
9. What events or statements on or around May 7, 2026, could explain the significant drop in the predicted likelihood of Lisa Murkowski voting 'Yes'?
| Likelihood drop date | Around May 7, 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Murkowski's prior vote | No on S.Con.Res.33 on April 23, 2026 [^][^] |
| Spending package release | $72 billion on May 7, 2026 [^] |
Murkowski's 'Yes' vote likelihood dropped due to two key events around May 7. The predicted likelihood of Senator Lisa Murkowski voting 'Yes' for the next budget reconciliation bill significantly decreased around May 7, 2026. This market reaction is attributable to two primary factors: her earlier vote against the budget resolution and the Senate Committees' release of the specific spending package on that date [^][^].
Her prior 'No' vote demonstrated opposition to reconciliation funding methods. Senator Murkowski voted against the Senate budget resolution S.Con.Res.33, which passed on April 23, 2026 [^]. She opposes multi-year funding via reconciliation, citing concerns that it bypasses annual appropriations oversight [^]. The subsequent release of the $72 billion budget reconciliation spending package on May 7, 2026, targeting ICE/Border Patrol funding, further contributed to the decline in predicted 'Yes' votes, aligning with her stated opposition and prior voting record [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A FY2026 reconciliation bill, which includes $72B for ICE/CBP immigration enforcement, was scored by the CBO on May 5, 2026 [^] . This development follows the budget resolution S.Con.Res. 33, which passed the Senate 50-48 on Apr 23, 2026 (Vote 105), and was subsequently concurred by the House on Apr 29 [^][^]. With the Senate GOP holding approximately 52 seats, the reconciliation process requires 50 votes plus the Vice President for passage [^][^]. Senator Collins' 'Yea' vote on the budget resolution has drawn market attention to her potential vote on the bill itself [^][^][^].
Key catalysts for the reconciliation bill include the May 15 committee deadline and the ensuing vote-a-rama [^] [^] . Conversely, bearish risks involve potential GOP holdouts, specifically fiscal hawks such as Paul and Tillis, based on past behaviors, and general legislative delays [^][^]. Prediction markets currently show a 76% probability that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill by May 31 [^]. A market on Kalshi tracks Senator Collins' vote out to Jan 1, 2027 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: A FY2026 reconciliation bill, which includes $72B for ICE/CBP immigration enforcement, was scored by the CBO on May 5, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: This development follows the budget resolution S.Con.Res.
- Trigger: 33, which passed the Senate 50-48 on Apr 23, 2026 (Vote 105), and was subsequently concurred by the House on Apr 29 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: With the Senate GOP holding approximately 52 seats, the reconciliation process requires 50 votes plus the Vice President for passage [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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