Yes
Market Model 96.9% 97.9%
SCOTUS & courts Markets
Active Markets (16)
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 3.7%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 9.0%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 49.9%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 19.0%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 33.0% 19.9%
Yes
Market Model 71.0% 76.4%
5
Market Model 1.6% 2.9%
6
Market Model 86.0% 82.7%
Yes
Market Model 69.0% 69.6%
James Comey
Market Model 75.0% 67.3%
Barack Obama
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
6
Market Model 8.0% 10.4%
3
Market Model 58.0% 46.6%
Tim Walz
Market Model 14.0% 4.6%
Ilhan Omar
Market Model 47.0% 24.3%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 72.4%
Yes
Market Model 7.4% 4.7%
Amul Thapar
Market Model 9.5% 7.8%
Aileen Cannon
Market Model 11.0% 8.9%
Clarence Thomas
Market Model 50.0% 27.0%
Samuel Alito
Market Model 70.0% 49.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 96.9% | 97.9% | Med | $14,402.42 | Refresh |
| Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 5.0% | 3.7% | Med | $41,752.37 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? Yes refers to: any 3rd Amendment case | 12.0% | 9.0% | Med | $6,525 | Refresh |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? Yes refers to: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump | 42.0% | 49.9% | Med | $14,231.17 | Refresh |
| Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 19.0% | 19.0% | Med | $6,804.5 | Refresh |
| Will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 17.0% | 9.9% | High | $126,382.55 | Refresh |
| Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day? Yes refers to: Before August 2026 | 71.0% | 76.4% | Med | $41,173.9 | Refresh |
| 1.6% | 2.9% | High | $51,521.68 | Refresh | |
| When will the Supreme Court issue an opinion on the Voting Rights Act? Yes refers to: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 69.0% | 69.6% | High | $72,283.73 | Refresh |
| Who will be arrested before 2027? Top outcome: James Comey | 75.0% | 67.3% | Med | $1,697,030.31 | Refresh |
| 8.0% | 10.4% | High | $45,065.47 | Refresh | |
| Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Top outcome: Tim Walz | 14.0% | 4.6% | Med | $655,771.44 | Refresh |
| Will Elon win his case against OpenAI? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 60.0% | 72.4% | Med | $417,740.6 | Refresh |
| Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 7.4% | 4.7% | Med | $17,552.18 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next Supreme Court justice? Top outcome: Amul Thapar | 9.5% | 7.8% | High | $306,260.87 | Refresh |
| Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term? Top outcome: Clarence Thomas | 50.0% | 27.0% | Med | $51,480 | Refresh |
