How long will the next FISA authorization be?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Recent long-term FISA reauthorization efforts faced decisive failure.
- Systemic FBI Section 702 abuses fuel legislative opposition.
- A House procedural vote on FISA reauthorization failed decisively.
- Legislative divisions indicate difficulty for a long-term extension.
- FISA reauthorization votes are consistently scheduled very near deadlines.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | Deep legislative divisions and recent failures make a short-term reauthorization more probable. |
| At least 90 days | 75.0% | 75.4% | Continued legislative divisions and FBI concerns indicate a shorter authorization is likely. |
| At least 2 years | 57.0% | 46.3% | The recent failure of a long-term bill and FBI abuses hinder a multi-year reauthorization. |
| At least 1 year | 63.0% | 52.2% | Legislative divisions and FBI abuses create hurdles for a one-year authorization. |
| At least 5 years | 3.0% | 2.4% | Deep legislative divisions and documented FBI abuses strongly oppose a five-year reauthorization. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 1 year
📉 April 28, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 63.0%
Outcome: At least 2 years
📈 April 23, 2026: 37.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 72.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the first FISA Section 702 reauthorization enacted after issuance extends the authority by at least 2 years; otherwise, it resolves to "No." A presidential pocket veto that expires also results in a "No" resolution. The market opened on April 21, 2026, and will close early if the outcome occurs, otherwise, it closes by January 1, 2028, at 10:00 am EST, with verification from the Library of Congress.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 30 days | $0.81 | $0.21 | 80% |
| At least 90 days | $0.76 | $0.29 | 75% |
| At least 1 year | $0.65 | $0.37 | 63% |
| At least 2 years | $0.58 | $0.49 | 57% |
| At least 5 years | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What are House Leaders' Stances on FISA Section 702 Extension?
| House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan | Supports FISA Section 702 extension, reversing previous stance [^]. |
|---|---|
| House Judiciary Ranking Member Jamie Raskin | Emphasizes reforms to protect civil liberties during reauthorization [^]. |
| HPSCI Ranking Member Jim Himes | Strongly supports preserving and reauthorizing FISA 702 [^], [^]. |
6. What Unlawful FBI Section 702 Searches Were Uncovered?
| Extent of Abuses | Hundreds of thousands of U.S. persons' communications queried without authorization [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Report | March 2026 Department of Justice Inspector General (DOJ OIG) report [^] |
| Examples of Targets | U.S. Senator, state judge, state political party official, journalist, humanitarian relief efforts [^] |
7. Why is FISA Section 702 Reauthorization Facing Legislative Hurdles?
| Long-term Reauthorization Bill Status | Failed in House, April 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Short-term Extensions | Approved 10-day extensions [^] |
| Speaker Johnson's Plan | Announced "new plan" after failed votes [^] |
8. What Was the Outcome of the House FISA Reauthorization Rule Vote?
9. How Close Does Congress Schedule FISA Reauthorization Votes to Deadlines?
| 2024 House Vote | 7 days before expiration [^] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Senate Vote | On expiration day [^] |
| 2018 Senate Vote | 3 days before expiration [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2028
- Closes: January 01, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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