Prediction Markets Research

Octagon provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.

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Active Markets (1269)

Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score Kalshi

Above 50

Market Model 88.0% 99.5%

Above 85

Market Model 9.0% 13.2%

$68.0K Refresh

MA-01 Democratic primary: Richard Neal vote percent Kalshi

At least 55%

Market Model 10.0% 0.0%

At least 70%

Market Model 5.0% 0.0%

$19.8K Refresh

When will OpenAI release GPT-6? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 30.0% 18.1%

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 56.0% 37.6%

$532.5K Refresh

What countries will Trump say in September? Kalshi

Qatar / Qatari

Market Model 87.0% 83.0%

UAE / United Arab Emirates

Market Model 76.0% 68.8%

$12.8K Refresh

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/29-9/4) Kalshi

At least 15

Market Model 99.0% 88.0%

At least 5

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

$19.1K Refresh

Verity · Rotten Tomatoes score Kalshi

Above 45

Market Model 82.0% 71.0%

Above 50

Market Model 66.0% 51.4%

$19.0K Refresh

#2 US Netflix Movie this week? Kalshi

Facing El Chapo

Market Model 4.0% 5.0%

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Market Model 1.0% 1.2%

$9.8K Refresh

Dollar General same-store sales growth in Q3 Kalshi

Above 3.5%

Market Model 25.0% 7.2%

Above 2%

Market Model 76.0% 31.2%

$1.7K Refresh

Coors Light Point of Sale Growth in August Kalshi

Above -12%

Market Model 55.0% 74.8%

Above -16%

Market Model 98.0% 77.9%

$6.7K Refresh

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? Polymarket

↓ 45,000

Market Model 8.0% 1.6%

↓ 55,000

Market Model 23.0% 12.8%

$61.6M Refresh

Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket

Spencer Pratt

Market Model 0.0% 32.8%

Lindsey Horvath

Market Model 0.0% 32.8%

$13.5M Refresh

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) Polymarket

Novak Djokovic

Market Model 0.0% 28.1%

Carlos Alcaraz

Market Model 33.0% 28.1%

$15.2M Refresh

EPL: 2027 Champion Polymarket

Manchester City

Market Model 23.0% 19.3%

Crystal Palace

Market Model 0.1% 0.1%

$13.7M Refresh

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 11.0% 5.5%

September 30

Market Model 0.8% 0.4%

$17.0M Refresh

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Polymarket

December 31

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

October 31

Market Model 2.0% 1.0%

$17.9M Refresh

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 3.4% 1.5%

$18.0M Refresh

MLS Cup Winner 2026 Polymarket

Columbus Crew

Market Model 1.3% 1.4%

Real Salt Lake

Market Model 1.6% 1.9%

$19.8M Refresh

Which companies will be acquired before 2027? Polymarket

Nebius Group

Market Model 3.6% 1.2%

Perplexity AI

Market Model 14.0% 6.3%

$18.2M Refresh

NBA: 2027 Champion Polymarket

Philadelphia 76ers

Market Model 12.7% 15.5%

Golden State Warriors

Market Model 1.1% 1.3%

$20.1M Refresh

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model 4.0% 2.7%

$21.8M Refresh

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion Polymarket

Shakhtar Donetsk

Market Model 0.2% 0.5%

Barcelona

Market Model 18.0% 18.4%

$20.4M Refresh

Putin out as President of Russia by...? Polymarket

December 31, 2026

Market Model 6.0% 4.0%

September 30, 2026

Market Model 1.4% 0.8%

$22.3M Refresh

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 Polymarket

Donald Trump

Market Model 2.1% 13.6%

UNRWA

Market Model 4.3% 11.9%

$23.6M Refresh

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket

September 30

Market Model 21.0% 14.2%

December 31

Market Model 64.0% 55.0%

$24.1M Refresh

Expired Markets (2115)

BTC 15 min · $77,831.23 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$868.4K

BTC 15 min · $77,811.02 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$259.8K

Ford US total vehicles sales in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$91.3K

BTC 15 min · $77,759.47 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$2.0M

BTC 15 min · $77,445.35 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$1.8M

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 2, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$231.4K

S&P 500 Daily Up/Down Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$13.3K

Copper price on September 01, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$88.3K

S&P price on Sep 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$38.9K

Where will it rain on Sep 1, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$118.6K

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$14.2M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$25.1M

BTC 15 min · $78,248.27 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$1.8M

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Polymarket

Yes

Market Model — —

$285.8M

Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 1, 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$31.3K

Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 1.0% 0.6%

$56.0K

Michael Jackson: Highest daily view count in August 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$148.6K

FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in Q2 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

BTC 15 min · $78,073.57 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$1.9M

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Moment with Katy Tur? Kalshi

Usha / JD / Vance

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

Muslim / Islam

Market Model 99.0% 99.0%

$56.1K

Justin Bieber: Highest daily view count (August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$26.1K

Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (August 24, 2026 - August 30, 2026) Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$117.4K

Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count in August 2026 Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

$248.6K

Prediction Markets Research

Active Markets (1269)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company