Before 2027
Market Model 15.0% 28.0%
Before July 2026
Market Model 6.0% 22.0%
Prediction Markets Research
Octagon AI provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.
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Yes
Market Model 85.0% 81.0%
Cut >25bps
Market Model 13.0% 11.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 36.0% 32.9%
Exactly 0.6%
Market Model 5.0% 2.3%
Exactly 0.2%
Market Model 17.0% 15.4%
Exactly 3.3%
Market Model 6.0% 2.3%
Exactly 3.4%
Market Model 6.0% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 8.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 24.5%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 68.0% 65.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 42.0% 40.0%
Jon Rahm beats Bryson DeChambeau
Market Model 98.0% 82.0%
Bryson DeChambeau beats Jon Rahm
Market Model 25.0% 18.0%
Below $60,000.00
Market Model 77.0% 77.5%
Below $40,000.00
Market Model 41.0% 39.0%
Buffalo Sabres
Market Model 13.0% 11.7%
Florida Panthers
Market Model 3.0% 1.9%
Earbuds/Headphones
Market Model 68.0% 65.5%
Clip-on device for clothing
Market Model 35.0% 32.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 12.0% 10.0%
Palantir
Market Model 18.0% 15.5%
Joaquin Niemann beats Sergio Garcia
Market Model 72.0% 62.5%
Sergio Garcia beats Joaquin Niemann
Market Model 77.0% 37.5%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 24.5%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 21.0% 85.0%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 7.0% 15.0%
At least $900
Market Model 30.0% 15.0%
At least $800
Market Model 63.0% 30.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
At least 500 billion
Market Model 9.0% 7.0%
At least 3%
Market Model 73.0% 73.0%
At least 3.5%
Market Model 39.0% 36.5%
United States
Market Model 69.0% 59.9%
China
Market Model 37.0% 31.3%
xAI
Market Model 54.0% 53.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 61.0% 60.0%
Above 5%
Market Model 38.0% 36.5%
Above 6%
Market Model 18.0% 17.0%
4.1 to 4.5
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
4.6 to 5.0
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 71.2% 86.1%
Citigroup
Market Model 90.0% 86.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 88.0% 90.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 83.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 79.0%
At least 250 billion
Market Model 28.0% 27.0%
At least 1 trillion
Market Model 13.0% 11.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 53.0% 47.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 60.0% 58.0%
$40 trillion
Market Model 99.0% 97.5%
$50 trillion
Market Model 53.0% 52.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 79.0% 78.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 85.0% 84.0%
At least 1000
Market Model 98.0% 25.0%
At least 5000
Market Model 44.0% 5.0%
Yes
Market Model 22.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 32.0% 31.0%
Elon Musk
Market Model 90.0% 87.1%
Jensen Huang
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Paramount
Market Model 81.0% 74.0%
Netflix
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 41.0% 95.0%
Before October
Market Model 35.0% 94.0%
Colorado Avalanche
Market Model 36.0% 34.5%
Minnesota Wild
Market Model 11.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Ken Paxton
Market Model 85.0% 89.1%
John Cornyn
Market Model 15.0% 10.9%
Israel
Market Model 6.0% 5.5%
Khamenei / Ayatollah
Market Model 6.0% 10.0%
Frances Tiafoe
Market Model 80.0% 71.9%
Mattia Bellucci
Market Model 23.0% 28.1%
Aubry Bracco
Market Model 83.0% 72.6%
Jonathan Young
Market Model 4.0% 3.5%
Judy Shelton
Market Model 5.0% 3.8%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 94.0% 86.3%
Before 2028
Market Model 28.0% 68.0%
Before 2030
Market Model 48.0% 78.0%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 18.0% 4.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 86.0% 92.0%
Below $1,500.00
Market Model 64.0% 68.5%
Below $1,250.00
Market Model 45.0% 49.5%
Above 0.2%
Market Model 56.0% 60.0%
Above 0.3%
Market Model 13.0% 22.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 15.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 11.0% 75.0%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 25.0% 78.0%
At least 50 GWdc
Market Model 12.0% 70.0%
At least 40 GWdc
Market Model 98.0% 99.0%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 83.5%
150 or above
Market Model 22.0% 23.0%
100 or above
Market Model 46.0% 47.0%
Before April 2026
Market Model 2.0% 25.0%
Before March 2026
Market Model 1.0% 10.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 49.0% 37.2%
Google
Market Model 15.0% 25.0%
Valar Atomics
Market Model 71.0% 3.0%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 60.0% 3.0%
Above $6,000.00
Market Model 11.0% 18.0%
Above $5,000.00
Market Model 17.0% 25.0%
1 cuts
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
0 cuts
Market Model 75.0% 80.9%
Yes
Market Model 67.0% 46.5%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 6.3%
Above 10000
Market Model 23.0% 31.5%
Above 4000
Market Model 76.0% 76.0%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 24.5%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 16.0% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 23.0% 21.5%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 40.0% 56.0%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 25.0% 31.5%
Exactly 2.3%
Market Model 2.0% 0.4%
Exactly 3.2%
Market Model 4.0% 1.8%
United Kingdom
Market Model 34.0% 55.0%
China
Market Model 8.0% 13.0%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 26.5%
Yes
Market Model 55.0% 65.5%
7 or above
Market Model 11.0% 5.0%
6.5 or above
Market Model 11.0% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 79.0% 72.0%
Above $99,999.99
Market Model 38.0% 85.0%
Above $199,999.99
Market Model 9.0% 15.0%
Yes
Market Model 28.0% 18.5%
Yes
Market Model 23.0% 27.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 6.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 14.0% 12.5%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 2.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 62.0% 54.5%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
Above $170.00
Market Model 26.0% 65.0%
Above $160.00
Market Model 32.0% 70.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 8.8%
5,900 or below
Market Model 46.0% 70.0%
6,000 or below
Market Model 54.0% 73.0%
18,999.99 or below
Market Model 20.0% 19.2%
25,500 to 25,999.99
Market Model 7.0% 4.8%
Before Apr 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 4.5%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 37.0% 43.5%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 8.5%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 59.0%
Disney
Market Model 13.0% 28.0%
Netflix
Market Model 22.0% 24.0%
More than $900 Billion
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
More than $1 trillion
Market Model 73.0% 87.0%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 19.5%
SpaceX
Market Model 93.0% 80.0%
Databricks
Market Model 23.0% 19.0%
Yes
Market Model 33.0% 34.5%
Before July
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 1.6%
Before 2028
Market Model 25.0% 23.5%
Before June 2026
Market Model 6.0% 30.2%
Before April 2026
Market Model 1.0% 8.6%
Yes
Market Model 58.0% 55.0%
Mobile
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Player Engagement
Market Model 1.0% 0.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 33.0% 20.0%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Q2 2025
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
Q4 2025
Market Model 5.0% 30.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 16.0% 2.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 6.0% 0.1%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 5.0% 4.5%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 2.5%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 98.0% 92.8%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 3.0% 5.2%
Trump
Market Model 7.0% 8.5%
President
Market Model 31.0% 42.5%
At least 1 billion
Market Model 2.0% 5.0%
At least 25 billion
Market Model 1.0% 4.5%
Slopadopolous
Market Model 17.0% 25.3%
Crazy Bernie
Market Model 13.0% 27.5%
330000 or more
Market Model 50.0% 47.0%
350000 or more
Market Model 26.0% 21.0%
Yes
Market Model 100.0% 99.5%
above 870 million
Market Model 100.0% 99.5%
above 850 million
Market Model 100.0% 99.5%
Above 0.0%
Market Model 100.0% 97.7%
Above 0.1%
Market Model 85.0% 95.6%
Before April
Market Model 7.0% 2.0%
Before May
Market Model 69.0% 50.0%
Bitcoin (BTC)
Market Model 37.0% 63.7%
Ripple (XRP)
Market Model 27.0% 23.5%
Claude
Market Model 41.0% 32.5%
ChatGPT
Market Model 20.0% 13.3%
Above 160
Market Model 58.0% 68.5%
Above 190
Market Model 14.0% 33.5%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 22.5%
7,400 to 7,599.99
Market Model 12.0% 11.9%
7,600 to 7,799.99
Market Model 11.0% 9.0%
7,200 or above
Market Model 64.0% 64.5%
7,600 or above
Market Model 34.0% 39.0%
Subscribe
Market Model 58.0% 53.5%
Feastable
Market Model 90.0% 88.5%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 1.0% 1.0%
Above 2.75%
Market Model 100.0% 99.0%
At least $1 trillion
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
At least $500 billion
Market Model 17.0% 18.0%
More than 130% of GDP
Market Model 6.0% 1.5%
More than 140% of GDP
Market Model 3.0% 0.5%
SoFi
Market Model 4.0% 42.0%
Vertiv Holdings
Market Model 100.0% 66.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.5%
Yes
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
At least $7 million
Market Model 81.0% 1.0%
At least $6 million
Market Model 94.0% 85.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 28.0% | Med | $1,179,285 | Ask |
| Netflix price increase in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 85.0% | 81.0% | Med | $144,574 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut >25bps | 13.0% | 11.0% | High | $153,734 | Ask |
| CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | High | $203,514 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 3.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | High | $298,090 | Ask |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 11.0% | 8.5% | Med | $76,790 | Ask |
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 25.0% | 24.5% | Med | $89,594 | Ask |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Goldman Sachs | 68.0% | 65.0% | Med | $57,302 | Ask |
| Head-to-Head Matchup: Rahm vs DeChambeau Top outcome: Jon Rahm beats Bryson DeChambeau | 98.0% | 82.0% | High | $1,686 | Ask |
| How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $60,000.00 | 77.0% | 77.5% | Med | $1,603,751 | Ask |
| Eastern Conference Finals Winner? Top outcome: Buffalo Sabres | 13.0% | 11.7% | High | $934,033 | Ask |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones | 68.0% | 65.5% | Med | $56,957 | Ask |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? Top outcome: Anthropic | 12.0% | 10.0% | Med | $248,806 | Ask |
| Head-to-Head Matchup: Niemann vs Garcia Top outcome: Joaquin Niemann beats Sergio Garcia | 72.0% | 62.5% | High | $1,223 | Ask |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 22.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | Ask |
| Recession this year? Yes refers to: Starts | 25.0% | 24.5% | Med | $462,943 | Ask |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 21.0% | 85.0% | Med | $58,871 | Ask |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 30.0% | 15.0% | Med | $96,385 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 10.0% | 9.0% | Med | $152,669 | Ask |
| How high will inflation get this year? Top outcome: At least 3% | 73.0% | 73.0% | Med | $61,885 | Ask |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 69.0% | 59.9% | Med | $91,501 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 54.0% | 53.5% | Med | $842,732 | Ask |
| How high will unemployment get in 2026? Top outcome: Above 5% | 38.0% | 36.5% | Med | $333,505 | Ask |
| GDP growth in 2026? Top outcome: 4.1 to 4.5 | 5.0% | 4.5% | High | $64,899 | Ask |
| More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? Yes refers to: Yes | 71.2% | 86.1% | Med | $229,780 | Ask |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 90.0% | 86.5% | Med | $647,231 | Ask |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 14.0% | 83.0% | Med | $112,820 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends? Top outcome: At least 250 billion | 28.0% | 27.0% | Med | $61,429 | Ask |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Top outcome: Anthropic | 53.0% | 47.5% | Med | $69,295 | Ask |
| Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration Top outcome: $40 trillion | 99.0% | 97.5% | Med | $61,983 | Ask |
| When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 79.0% | 78.5% | Med | $343,555 | Ask |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98.0% | 25.0% | Med | $110,847 | Ask |
| China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 22.0% | 20.0% | Med | $57,276 | Ask |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 32.0% | 31.0% | Med | $52,761 | Ask |
| Who will be the world's first trillionaire? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 90.0% | 87.1% | High | $149,740 | Ask |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 81.0% | 74.0% | Med | $2,631,225 | Ask |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 41.0% | 95.0% | Med | $153,528 | Ask |
| Western Conference Finals Winner? Top outcome: Colorado Avalanche | 36.0% | 34.5% | High | $1,062,142 | Ask |
| — | — | High | $21,119 | Ask | |
| Texas Republican Senate nominee? Top outcome: Ken Paxton | 85.0% | 89.1% | High | $2,352,943 | Ask |
| What will Trump say during the Medal of Honor Ceremony? Top outcome: Israel | 6.0% | 5.5% | Med | $3,299,685 | Ask |
| Tiafoe vs Bellucci Top outcome: Frances Tiafoe | 80.0% | 71.9% | High | $920,132 | Ask |
| Who will win Survivor Season 50? Top outcome: Aubry Bracco | 83.0% | 72.6% | High | $4,555,613 | Ask |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 5.0% | 3.8% | High | $196,269,477 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 28.0% | 68.0% | Med | $571,972 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 18.0% | 4.5% | Med | $201,833 | Ask |
| How low will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Below $1,500.00 | 64.0% | 68.5% | Med | $171,855 | Ask |
| CPI in Feb 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.2% | 56.0% | 60.0% | Med | $69,788 | Ask |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 15.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,300 | Ask |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 11.0% | 75.0% | Med | $58,063 | Ask |
| How much solar capacity will be installed in the US in 2025? Top outcome: At least 50 GWdc | 12.0% | 70.0% | Med | $84,580 | Ask |
| Will Solana end 2026 over $500? Yes refers to: na | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $181,012 | Ask |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 81.0% | 83.5% | Med | $20,385 | Ask |
| Price of Solana by end of 2026? Top outcome: 150 or above | 22.0% | 23.0% | Med | $106,319 | Ask |
| When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? Top outcome: Before April 2026 | 2.0% | 25.0% | Med | $1,938,279 | Ask |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 49.0% | 37.2% | Med | $216,897 | Ask |
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 71.0% | 3.0% | Med | $85,077 | Ask |
| How high will Ethereum get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $6,000.00 | 11.0% | 18.0% | Med | $1,096,684 | Ask |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 1 cuts | 12.0% | 11.1% | Med | $67,451 | Ask |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 67.0% | 46.5% | Med | $84,553 | Ask |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | Ask |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 10000 | 23.0% | 31.5% | Med | $405,394 | Ask |
| Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 28.0% | 24.5% | Med | $55,846 | Ask |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 16.0% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | Ask |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 40.0% | 56.0% | Med | $70,699 | Ask |
| CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | Med | $1,018,640 | Ask |
| Which countries will have a recession before 2027? Top outcome: United Kingdom | 34.0% | 55.0% | Med | $89,415 | Ask |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 24.0% | 26.5% | Med | $236,013 | Ask |
| Will the S&P finish positive this year? Yes refers to: Positive Growth | 55.0% | 65.5% | Med | $211,755 | Ask |
| USD/BRL high in 2026 Top outcome: 7 or above | 11.0% | 5.0% | Med | $540,878 | Ask |
| Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 79.0% | 72.0% | Med | $67,649 | Ask |
| How high will Bitcoin get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $99,999.99 | 38.0% | 85.0% | Med | $1,897,192 | Ask |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 28.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | Ask |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 23.0% | 27.0% | Med | $132,837 | Ask |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.0% | 6.5% | Med | $164,960 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0% | Med | $89,496 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $200000 | 10.0% | 9.0% | Med | $3,226,453 | Ask |
| How high will Solana get in 2026? Top outcome: Above $170.00 | 26.0% | 65.0% | Med | $191,652 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027? Yes refers to: Above $250000 | 7.0% | 8.8% | Med | $396,970 | Ask |
| How low will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 5,900 or below | 46.0% | 70.0% | Med | $145,899 | Ask |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below | 20.0% | 19.2% | Med | $514,992 | Ask |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 4.5% | Med | $492,938 | Ask |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.0% | 8.5% | Med | $108,581 | Ask |
| Will there be a Trump economic boom? Yes refers to: Above 5% | 57.0% | 59.0% | Med | $136,854 | Ask |
| 13.0% | 28.0% | Med | $56,503 | Ask | |
| How rich will Elon Musk get before 2027? Top outcome: More than $900 Billion | 87.0% | 88.0% | Med | $43,054 | Ask |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 19.0% | 19.5% | Med | $6,438,777 | Ask |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 93.0% | 80.0% | Med | $681,424 | Ask |
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 33.0% | 34.5% | Med | $81,228 | Ask |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $12,539 | Ask |
| Costco raises hot dog combo price? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 1.6% | Med | $40,031 | Ask |
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Top outcome: Before June 2026 | 6.0% | 30.2% | Med | $11,864,120 | Ask |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 58.0% | 55.0% | Med | $73,763 | Ask |
| What will EA say during their next earnings call? Top outcome: Mobile | 1.0% | 0.3% | Med | $5,770,836 | Ask |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 33.0% | 20.0% | Med | $88,753 | Ask |
| When will the next US recession start? Top outcome: Q2 2025 | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $408,091 | Ask |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 16.0% | 2.0% | Med | $46,462 | Ask |
| When will Dogecoin hit $1? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 4.5% | Med | $184,132 | Ask |
| Fed decision in Mar 2026? Top outcome: Fed maintains rate | 98.0% | 92.8% | High | $11,022,727 | Ask |
| What will Powell say during his March press conference? Top outcome: Trump | 7.0% | 8.5% | Med | $54,276 | Ask |
| How much government spending will Trump cut in 2025? Top outcome: At least 1 billion | 2.0% | 5.0% | Med | $11,658,168 | Ask |
| What nicknames will Trump say before April? Top outcome: Slopadopolous | 17.0% | 25.3% | Med | $115,345 | Ask |
| Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026? Top outcome: 330000 or more | 50.0% | 47.0% | Med | $280,250 | Ask |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 100.0% | 99.5% | Med | $18,528 | Ask |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 100.0% | 99.5% | Med | $67,904 | Ask |
| How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026? Top outcome: Above 0.0% | 100.0% | 97.7% | Med | $165,619 | Ask |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before April | 7.0% | 2.0% | Med | $309,200 | Ask |
| Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026? Top outcome: Bitcoin (BTC) | 37.0% | 63.7% | Med | $267,766 | Ask |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 41.0% | 32.5% | Med | $1,135,017 | Ask |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 58.0% | 68.5% | Med | $65,786 | Ask |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 19.0% | 22.5% | Med | $213,169 | Ask |
| S&P close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 12.0% | 11.9% | Med | $826,748 | Ask |
| How high will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 7,200 or above | 64.0% | 64.5% | Med | $241,849 | Ask |
| Mention: MrBeast Youtube Video Top outcome: Subscribe | 58.0% | 53.5% | Med | $102,289 | Ask |
| Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 1.0% | 1.0% | Med | $226,656 | Ask |
| How much will the government increase spending in 2025? Top outcome: At least $1 trillion | 2.0% | 1.0% | Med | $365,355 | Ask |
| How much will US debt increase in 2025? Top outcome: More than 130% of GDP | 6.0% | 1.5% | Med | $178,498 | Ask |
| Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q1 of 2026? Top outcome: SoFi | 4.0% | 42.0% | Med | $297,831 | Ask |
| Unemployment in January 2026? Yes refers to: Above 4.7% | 14.0% | 9.5% | Med | $474,278 | Ask |
| Unemployment rate in Jan 2026? Yes refers to: Exactly 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | Med | $80,293 | Ask |
| What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction? Top outcome: At least $7 million | 81.0% | 1.0% | Med | $499,183 | Ask |
Expired Markets (58)
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| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $3,709,181 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $2,106,410 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $328,601 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $651,472 | Ask | |
| — | — | High | $1,955,758 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $41,559 | Ask | |
| — | — | High | $55,833 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $2,593,605 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $3,417,113 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $55,143 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $313,435 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $222,814 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $145,180 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $69,779 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $17,700 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $58,037 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $245,391 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $186,700 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $56,909 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $334,912 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $242,507 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $106,085 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $395,527 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $1,626,854 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $736,763 | Ask | |
| — | — | High | $2,193,012 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $1,254,451 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $1,065,340 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $239,714 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $201,132 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $102,474 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $114,244 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $469,075 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $712,853 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $503,843 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $103,769 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $57,133 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $59,064 | Ask | |
| — | — | High | $59,173 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $509,407 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $64,972 | Ask | |
| — | — | High | $518,921 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $3,467,644 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $151,752 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $58,466 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $313,557 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $443,679 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $264,092 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $111,120 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $357,769 | Ask | |
| — | — | High | $84,823 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $719,574 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $737,018 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $167,215 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $571,304 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $364,706 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $461,265 | Ask | |
| — | — | Med | $61,790 | Ask |
