Prediction Markets Research

Octagon provides deep research and analysis on prediction markets, combining real-time market data with advanced AI models to deliver actionable insights on event outcomes, probabilities, and market trends.

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Active Markets (1611)

Philadelphia vs Chicago Kalshi

Philadelphia

Market Model 79.0% 81.5%

Chicago

Market Model 22.0% 18.5%

163.8K contracts Refresh

Cincinnati vs Atlanta Kalshi

Cincinnati

Market Model 62.0% 64.0%

Atlanta

Market Model 38.0% 36.0%

1.6M contracts Refresh

When will Alyeska open for the 26/27 winter season? Kalshi

Before Nov 15, 2026

Market Model 8.0% 1.0%

Before Nov 22, 2026

Market Model 3.0% 2.0%

5.6K contracts Refresh

Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 30.6%

6.7K contracts Refresh

Dantes banned from Twitch this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 12.0%

2.6K contracts Refresh

Raman's LA margin vs. Talarico's Texas margin? Kalshi

Talarico by 10-15

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

Talarico by 5-10

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

65.7K contracts Refresh

Kanye West: Highest daily view count (November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026) Kalshi

Above 7.5M

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

Above 5M

Market Model 93.0% 85.9%

10.0K contracts Refresh

When will Killington open for the 26/27 winter season? Kalshi

Before Nov 15, 2026

Market Model 1.0% 0.8%

Before Nov 8, 2026

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

2.8K contracts Refresh

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027? Kalshi

20% or above

Market Model 97.0% 95.3%

50% or above

Market Model 66.0% 51.4%

9.4K contracts Refresh

Houston vs Phoenix Kalshi

Phoenix

Market Model 30.0% 23.5%

Houston

Market Model 71.0% 76.5%

190.6K contracts Refresh

Denver vs Indiana Kalshi

Denver

Market Model 74.0% 86.8%

Indiana

Market Model 26.0% 13.2%

170.3K contracts Refresh

Orlando vs Golden State Kalshi

Golden State

Market Model 68.0% 74.5%

Orlando

Market Model 32.0% 25.5%

222.6K contracts Refresh

Florida vs Washington Kalshi

Washington

Market Model 53.0% 60.3%

Florida

Market Model 48.0% 39.7%

75.9K contracts Refresh

Georgia vs Ole Miss Kalshi

Ole Miss

Market Model 38.0% 30.8%

Georgia

Market Model 62.0% 69.2%

392.3K contracts Refresh

New York J vs Kansas City Kalshi

Kansas City

Market Model 80.0% 83.0%

New York J

Market Model 20.0% 17.0%

323.4K contracts Refresh

New York vs Cleveland Kalshi

Cleveland

Market Model 36.0% 28.4%

New York

Market Model 66.0% 71.6%

54.0K contracts Refresh

BYU vs Utah Kalshi

BYU

Market Model 38.0% 37.6%

Utah

Market Model 63.0% 62.4%

1.3M contracts Refresh

Will the House pass a D.C. statehood bill? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 59.0% 64.7%

5.7K contracts Refresh

When will Frank Ocean release a new album? Kalshi

2026

Market Model 23.0% 23.0%

2028

Market Model 31.0% 23.0%

17.4K contracts Refresh

Alaska Governor margin of victory Kalshi

Democrats, 8+ pts

Market Model 70.0% 72.1%

Democrats, 11+ pts

Market Model 67.0% 70.2%

16.5K contracts Refresh

Alaska Senate election: number of rounds Kalshi

Market Model 4.0% 11.6%

Market Model 17.0% 0.0%

21.1K contracts Refresh

When will Winter Park open for the 26/27 winter season? Kalshi

Before Nov 15, 2026

Market Model 69.0% 60.7%

Before Nov 8, 2026

Market Model 69.0% 54.7%

20.5K contracts Refresh

Talen Energy TWh generation in Q1 2027 Kalshi

Above 20 twh

Market Model 75.0% 74.4%

Above 21 twh

Market Model 12.0% 74.4%

18.3K contracts Refresh

Nevada Governor election: None of These Candidates vote share? Kalshi

At least 4.5%

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

At least 3.5%

Market Model 8.0% 4.0%

12.4K contracts Refresh

Expired Markets (2863)

ZEC 15 min · $1,254.4579 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.0K contracts

BTC 15 min · $75,662.60 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

797.0K contracts

BTC 15 min · $75,655.28 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

495.3K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,231.82 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.6K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,230.48 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

29.7K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,233.57 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

22.9K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,234.85 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.9K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,233.33 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

24.8K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,233.85 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

3.2K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,231.76 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

33.7K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,230.71 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

48.9K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,232.21 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

9.0K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,234.28 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

10.1K contracts

ETH 15 min · $2,237.63 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

99.9K contracts

BTC price on Nov 7, 2026 at 5pm EST? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

201.0K contracts

BTC 15 min · $75,761.98 target Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

127.3K contracts

BTC price on Nov 5, 2026 at 12pm EST? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

355.1K contracts

UTSA vs Florida Atlantic Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

46.8K contracts

James Madison vs Southern Miss Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

48.8K contracts

Miami vs Golden State Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

373.3K contracts

Orlando vs Phoenix Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

56.6K contracts

Jacksonville vs Baltimore Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.0M contracts

Sephora Credit Card Spend in October Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

95.6K contracts

BTC price on Nov 5, 2026 at 5pm EST? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

289.0K contracts

Prediction Markets Research

Active Markets (1611)

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company