How many Truths will Trump delete in Apr 2026?
Yes refers to: At least 10
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump historically deletes posts following negative legal and public pressures.
- Negative legal developments occurred for Trump during late April 2026.
- Judge expressed skepticism April 24, indicating potential adverse ruling.
- No direct correlation exists between DJT stock and post deletion rate.
- Dan Scavino was present, advising Trump on post-deletion decisions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | 98.0% | 98.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 25, 2026: 35.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 87.0%
Outcome: At least 10
📉 April 24, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 52.0%
Outcome: At least 10
📉 April 23, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 66.0%
Outcome: At least 10
📈 April 18, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 66.0%
Outcome: At least 10
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump deletes at least 5 Truth Social posts created in April 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome will be verified using Roll Call. The market opened on April 13, 2026, closed on April 17, 2026, and payouts are scheduled for May 1, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 10 | $0.99 | $0.05 | 98% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Ratio of Trump's Deleted Posts Were Corrections vs. Retractions?
| Ratio of deleted posts (corrections vs. retractions) Q1 2026 | Cannot be determined from available sources [^]. |
|---|---|
| Example of simple correction-like deletion | Post concerning Iran described as an "embarrassing mistake" [^] |
| Example of substantive message retraction-like deletion | Post regarding transgender surgery quietly deleted [^] |
6. What Were Trump's Key Legal Events in April 2026?
| IRS Lawsuit Skepticism | Judge expressed skepticism on April 24, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Immigration Policy Rejected | US appeals court rejected policy on April 29, 2026 [^] |
| Election Subversion Trial Date Sought | Trump's lawyers sought April 2026 trial date [^] |
7. How do Trump's public appearances impact Truth Social deleted posts?
| Trump Truth Social Post Archives | Comprehensive archives available, including deleted content [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump Public Appearance Schedule | Archived and filterable by date [^] |
| Direct Comparison of Deleted Posts vs. Public Appearances | Not directly provided in sources for preceding six months [^] |
8. Does DJT Stock Volatility Correlate with Trump's Post Deletion Rate?
| DJT Stock Lowest Price | Hit its lowest price ever [^] |
|---|---|
| DJT Stock Value Decline | Plunges wiped out billions [^] |
| Post Deletion Reasons Examples | Typos, controversial phrases, judge's ruling [^] |
9. Were Trump's Aides Present During Post Deletions in April 2026?
| Dan Scavino's Role | Documented adviser to Trump, present in April 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Other Aides' Proximity | Jason Miller and Steven Cheung identified as top campaign aides and close to Trump as of April 2025 [^] |
| Post Deletion Correlation | No available data correlates aides' presence with Trump's post deletion rate [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: May 01, 2026
- Expiration: May 01, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPDELETE-26APR-A7: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXTRUMPDELETE-26APR-A6: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXTRUMPDELETE-26APR-A5: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
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