Who will Trump pardon?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Donald Trump Jr. to be pardoned, with the model at 47.6% versus the market's 59.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump may prioritize pardoning Jan. 6 participants and wealthy supporters.
- Mass pardons by U.S. presidents have historical precedent for national issues.
- Pardons for Assange or Snowden involve complex press freedom and security debates.
- Trump's first term established precedents for politically motivated or personal pardons.
- Trump has made public commitments to pardon Jan. 6 participants and Ross Ulbricht.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barron Trump | 40.0% | 27.0% | Donald Trump may seek to preemptively protect his son Barron from potential future legal actions. |
| Donald Trump | 56.0% | 44.1% | A president may pardon themselves to preempt potential federal charges after leaving office. |
| Sean Combs | 22.0% | 11.5% | Sean Combs faces high-profile legal issues, which may prompt a politically motivated pardon. |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 54.0% | 41.8% | Ghislaine Maxwell's case involves connections that some may wish to keep from further public scrutiny. |
| Edward Snowden | 44.0% | 31.0% | Edward Snowden's pardon is a long-standing issue for his supporters and critics alike. |
Current Context
Trump's past pardon patterns may extend to a potential second term. This approach was observed during his first presidency and is speculated to continue in a potential second term [^][^]. Reports indicate that Trump would issue mass pardons for individuals involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, with some sources suggesting this could happen on his first day in office [^][^][^][^]. In a hypothetical second term, he has reportedly already pardoned approximately 1,500 people convicted of offenses related to the events of January 6th [^][^][^]. Peter Navarro, his former trade advisor imprisoned for contempt of Congress in connection with the January 6th investigation, is another individual Trump previously indicated he might pardon [^].
A wide array of individuals are speculated to receive pardons. These include Rudy Giuliani for his involvement in efforts to overturn the 2020 election results [^][^] and Mark Meadows for similar actions [^]. It has also been reported that Trump preemptively pardoned 77 people associated with the "Fake Electors" plot in a hypothetical second term [^]. Other speculated recipients include Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance, reportedly pardoned in October of a hypothetical second term [^][^], and George Santos, whose seven-year sentence was reportedly commuted after less than three months [^][^][^]. Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road, had his sentence pledged for commutation on "Day One" of a potential second term [^][^]. Additional individuals reportedly pardoned in a hypothetical second term include former Republican Congressman Michael Grimm for tax fraud [^][^], reality TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley for tax evasion and bank fraud [^], and Marion "Suge" Knight, co-founder of Death Row Records, for drug crimes after endorsing Trump [^]. New York City Mayor Eric Adams is also someone Trump has suggested he could pardon [^]. Trump has reportedly suggested broader "mass pardons" for "everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval Office" [^][^].
The scope and legality of presidential pardons face significant debate. While Trump has asserted he has the "absolute right" to issue pardons, legal scholars are divided on the constitutionality of such actions, particularly regarding self-pardons, with many arguing that "no one may be a judge in his own case" [^][^][^][^][^]. It is important to note that a presidential pardon would only apply to federal offenses, not state-level charges, such as those he might face in jurisdictions like New York or Georgia [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the market shows a complete lack of price movement. The probability has remained static at its starting point of 35.0% across all 133 data points. There have been no price spikes, drops, or any volatility whatsoever, resulting in a perfectly flat, sideways trend. This indicates that despite ongoing news and speculation regarding potential pardons in a future Trump term, none of this information has influenced trading activity or the market price.
The most critical observation from the chart is the total trading volume of zero contracts. This lack of volume signifies that no trades have ever occurred in this market. Consequently, the 35.0% price does not reflect active market sentiment or conviction from traders. It is merely the initial opening price and has not been validated, challenged, or adjusted by any buying or selling pressure. Because there has been no trading, it is impossible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels; the 35.0% level is the only price point on record. The chart suggests this is an inactive, or illiquid, market where the price does not represent a consensus forecast but rather an unchallenged starting position.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if JD Vance receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before January 21, 2029. If this condition is not met, the market resolves to NO. The market opened on April 10, 2026, and will close early if a pardon is granted, otherwise by January 21, 2029 at 10:00 AM EST, with outcomes verified by the White House and New York Times.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | $0.61 | $0.42 | 59% |
| Donald Trump | $0.55 | $0.48 | 56% |
| Torence Hatch | $0.55 | $0.49 | 55% |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | $0.54 | $0.49 | 54% |
| Scott Bessent | $0.51 | $0.54 | 51% |
| JD Vance | $0.52 | $0.50 | 50% |
| Keonne Rodriguez | $0.48 | $0.56 | 48% |
| Pete Hegseth | $0.39 | $0.62 | 45% |
| Edward Snowden | $0.43 | $0.61 | 44% |
| Jared Kushner | $0.45 | $0.60 | 44% |
| Steve Bannon | $0.44 | $0.60 | 44% |
| Elizabeth Holmes | $0.42 | $0.62 | 42% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.43 | $0.61 | 42% |
| Barron Trump | $0.42 | $0.61 | 40% |
| Elon Musk | $0.44 | $0.60 | 40% |
| Bill Hwang | $0.42 | $0.62 | 38% |
| Pam Bondi | $0.36 | $0.69 | 36% |
| Robin Smith | $0.38 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Prakazrel Michel | $0.39 | $0.66 | 34% |
| Eric Adams | $0.33 | $0.71 | 33% |
| Tim Leissner | $0.34 | $0.70 | 31% |
| Bob Menendez | $0.33 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Julian Assange | $0.29 | $0.76 | 29% |
| Derek Chauvin | $0.32 | $0.72 | 28% |
| Kisean Anderson | $0.25 | $0.78 | 26% |
| Susie Wiles | $0.42 | $0.62 | 25% |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | $0.27 | $0.75 | 24% |
| Joe Giudice | $0.23 | $0.81 | 23% |
| Larry Householder | $0.24 | $0.77 | 22% |
| Sean Combs | $0.21 | $0.83 | 22% |
| Pete Rose | $0.25 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Joseph Maldonado | $0.23 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Tou Thao | $0.21 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Do Kwon | $0.20 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Martin Shkreli | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Safaree Samuels | $0.17 | $0.87 | 18% |
| Justin Sun | $0.21 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Leon Stanton | $0.17 | $0.87 | 17% |
| Daniel Hale | $0.16 | $0.87 | 16% |
| Brian Cole Jr. | $0.17 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Matt Borges | $0.16 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Roger Ver | $0.13 | $0.90 | 14% |
| DeAndre Way | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Jeffery Williams | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Jose Muyet | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Alex Mashinsky | $0.14 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Ty Garbin | $0.13 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Sebastian Telfair | $0.13 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Traders are discussing the likelihood of Trump pardoning specific individuals, with strong viewpoints against certain candidates. For Ghislaine Maxwell, a key argument against a pardon is a moral stance that sex offenders should not receive early release. Conversely, several traders express skepticism about Barron Trump needing a pardon, suggesting a "No" bet on him is "free money" due to a lack of apparent reason for a pardon. While other names like Julian Assange are mentioned and the possibility of "mass pardons like Biden" is raised, the discussion lacks explicit arguments supporting the pardoning of high-probability individuals like Maxwell, Scott Bessent, or JD Vance.
4. What are the primary categories of individuals being considered for a Trump pardon, and how might they be prioritized within a second term?
| Number of January 6 Pardons Predicted | Approximately 1,500 individuals (on first day) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Hypothetical Mass Pardon Example | 77 people (including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows) [^][^][^][^] |
| Prediction Market Resolution | Before January 21, 2029 [^] |
Several distinct categories of individuals are potential Trump pardon recipients. These include participants in the January 6 Capitol Attack, wealthy donors and connected individuals, law enforcement and military personnel, and individuals associated with celebrity requests or public advocacy [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Immediate family members, such as Donald Trump Jr. and Barron Trump, have also been identified as potential recipients in prediction markets [^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, Trump has indicated a focus on cases he believes were politically motivated or involved over-prosecution [^][^].
January 6 participants would likely be highly prioritized in a second term. Predictions suggest a significant number of pardons for those involved in the January 6, 2021, events, with a mass pardon for approximately 1,500 individuals on his first day being anticipated [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This group would also include leaders of entities like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, whose sentences could be commuted [^]. For instance, a hypothetical mass pardon for 77 people, including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, has been outlined for such conduct in a potential second term [^][^][^][^]. The sentiment "No MAGA left behind" has been attributed to Trump's pardon attorney, underscoring this particular focus [^][^].
Individuals with financial ties or significant contributions would also continue to be prioritized. The pattern of pardoning those with financial ties or who have made substantial contributions suggests this group's continued importance [^][^][^][^][^]. Examples of individuals considered from his first and hypothetical second terms include Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, Steve Bannon, George Papadopoulos, Rudy Giuliani, and Mark Meadows [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Many of these recipients are business executives or politicians, some with substantial donations or connections through lobbyists [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Current prediction markets, which resolve before January 21, 2029, additionally indicate specific individuals like Ghislaine Maxwell, Scott Bessent, and JD Vance as potential recipients [^].
5. What is the historical precedent for U.S. presidents issuing 'mass pardons,' and how do Trump's proposals for Jan. 6 defendants fit this context?
| First Mass Pardons | 1795 for Whiskey Rebellion participants (George Washington) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Johnson's Confederate Pardons | Over 12,652 by 1866 [^] |
| Trump's Jan. 6 Pardons | Approximately 1,600 convicts, 14 leaders commuted [^][^] |
U.S. presidents have historically used mass pardons to address national issues. The exercise of broad clemency powers has a significant precedent in American history, beginning with George Washington, who issued the first mass pardons in 1795 for those involved in the Whiskey Rebellion, intending to promote national unity [^][^]. After the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln granted 64 war-related pardons, a policy expanded considerably by Andrew Johnson, who pardoned over 12,652 ex-Confederates through various proclamations by 1866 [^]. More recently, Jimmy Carter granted clemency to Vietnam draft evaders on his first day in office [^][^].
Donald Trump's pardons for Jan. 6 defendants reflect this historical practice. His actions regarding Jan. 6 defendants align with the established pattern of presidential mass pardons [^][^]. During interviews in December 2024, Trump had publicly vowed to issue "first day" pardons for these defendants [^][^]. Subsequently, on January 20, 2025, a proclamation was issued, granting pardons to approximately 1,600 Jan. 6 convicts, commuting the sentences of 14 leaders, and dismissing pending cases related to the event [^][^].
6. How do the cases of Julian Assange and Edward Snowden compare regarding the political and foreign policy implications of a potential pardon?
| Julian Assange's Charges | Espionage Act for obtaining and publishing national defense information [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Edward Snowden's Charges | Espionage Act and theft for leaking classified documents exposing global surveillance programs [^][^][^][^] |
| Trump's Pardon Decision (First Term) | Neither Assange nor Snowden were pardoned due to concerns about angering Senate Republicans [^][^] |
Julian Assange's potential pardon sparks debate over press freedom and national security. Charged under the Espionage Act for obtaining and publishing national defense information, particularly after a June 2024 plea deal, Assange is viewed by supporters as a journalist exposing war crimes, making his prosecution a threat to press freedom and the First Amendment [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. A pardon would be perceived as a victory for journalistic integrity and a strong statement against government secrecy, potentially improving international relations [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Conversely, opponents contend that his actions severely jeopardized U.S. national security and endangered human sources, arguing that a pardon would encourage further illicit disclosures and erode American security [^][^].
Edward Snowden's case highlights the tension between whistleblowing and national security. Snowden faces charges under the Espionage Act and theft for leaking classified documents that revealed global surveillance programs [^][^][^][^]. Advocates champion him as a whistleblower who exposed illegal mass surveillance and government overreach, leading to significant reforms in privacy laws and increased government transparency [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. For these groups, a pardon for Snowden would be celebrated as an affirmation of whistleblowers' crucial role in a democracy [^][^][^]. However, critics label his disclosures as the 'largest and most damaging release of classified information in U.S. intelligence history,' causing substantial harm to national security [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Opponents firmly believe a pardon would betray national security and encourage future leaks, especially considering Snowden's current status as a Russian citizen [^][^][^][^][^].
Despite differing methods, both cases faced similar political hurdles regarding pardons. Assange acted as a publisher who disseminated information, including unredacted names [^][^], while Snowden was an insider who directly leaked documents [^][^][^]. During his first term, President Trump did not pardon either individual, reportedly due to concerns about potentially alienating Senate Republicans [^][^]. These high-profile cases underscore the complex interplay between press freedom, whistleblower protection, and national security interests.
7. What precedent exists from Trump's first term for pardoning individuals like George Santos or Eric Adams based on personal relationships or political calculations?
| Total Pardons Granted | 143 (during his presidency) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Total Commutations Granted | 94 (during his presidency) [^][^] |
| Pardons with Personal/Political Ties | At least 84 out of 94 (Trump pardons) [^] |
Donald Trump's first term set precedents for politically motivated pardons. During his presidency, Donald Trump granted a total of 143 pardons and 94 commutations [^][^]. A significant analysis indicates that a substantial majority of these actions, specifically at least 84 out of 94 pardons, were linked to his personal or political connections [^][^]. This demonstrates a clear pattern of executive clemency being influenced by the president's relationships and political considerations.
Numerous high-profile cases illustrate the influence of personal and political ties. Precedents include the pardons and commutations of figures such as former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, longtime friend Roger Stone, 2016 campaign adviser George Papadopoulos, and campaign chairman Paul Manafort [^][^]. Roger Stone's sentence was commuted just before he was due to report to prison, a decision widely viewed as reflecting President Trump's reaction to the Mueller investigation [^]. Other notable instances involved former Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio [^][^], former communications executive Gregory Reyes [^], and Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist [^][^]. Financial connections also played a role; for example, Michael Milken's pardon was reportedly urged by GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson [^], and Paul Walczak received a pardon after his mother attended a significant fundraising dinner for a Trump super PAC [^].
Trump's first term established a clear pattern for politically motivated clemency. These instances collectively establish a precedent for pardoning individuals based on personal or political connections and calculations, including those influenced by campaign affiliations or financial support. However, the provided research does not contain specific information about George Santos or Eric Adams being subjects of a pardon or commutation during Trump's first term. While Eric Adams is mentioned in prediction markets for a potential future pardon, this remains a hypothetical future scenario and does not constitute a precedent from Trump's first term [^].
8. What specific public promises has Donald Trump made regarding pardons for January 6th participants and Ross Ulbricht?
| Jan 6 Pardons Promised | First day in office [^] |
|---|---|
| Jan 6 Pardons Issued | January 21, 2025 [^] |
| Ross Ulbricht Pardon Issued | January 22, 2025 [^][^] |
Donald Trump made specific public commitments to issue pardons for participants in the January 6th events and for Ross Ulbricht. He pledged to pardon January 6th participants on his "First day" if re-elected [^] and vowed to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence to time served on "Day 1" of his new term [^]. These promises outlined actions he would take upon assuming office.
Regarding the January 6th participants, Trump consistently promised significant pardons. He initially expressed his intent to be "looking for these pardons" on his "First day" during a December 2024 appearance on Meet the Press [^]. Later, at a Mar-a-Lago press conference in January 2025, he indicated he would be "making major pardons" for those involved [^]. These commitments were subsequently fulfilled when approximately 1,500 January 6th rioters received blanket pardons on January 21, 2025 [^].
Ross Ulbricht's sentence commutation was promised and delivered following Trump's public statements. Trump made this promise at the Libertarian Convention on May 26, 2024, where he stated his intention to "on Day 1, commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served" if elected [^]. This commitment was fulfilled on January 22, 2025, when Trump issued a full pardon for Ross Ulbricht [^][^].
10. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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