Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- No public information on 2025 Trump-GOP leader communications was found.
- Israel, Ukraine, Italy held preliminary 2025 meetings with Trump-aligned figures.
- Ballard Partners reported $5.5M in Q2 2026 tech lobbying income.
- Bezos, Zuckerberg, Huang made no Trump donations during 2025-2026.
- King Charles III and Queen Camilla have a state visit scheduled for April 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Fishback | 9.9% | 4.0% | The provided background research contains no information regarding James Fishback or his potential visit to Mar-a-Lago in 2026, offering no specific evidence to shift from the debiased market price. |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 24.0% | 13.0% | The provided research contains no information, specific facts, or data points regarding a potential visit by Benjamin Netanyahu to Mar-a-Lago in 2026, offering no basis to shift the debiased probability. |
| Ron DeSantis | 75.0% | 67.3% | The background research explicitly states there is no information available regarding 2025 communications between Trump and DeSantis, which neither supports nor refutes the market's 67.3% probability for a 2026 Mar-a-Lago visit. |
| Giorgia Meloni | 26.0% | 14.5% | There is no specific evidence provided in the research indicating Giorgia Meloni will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026, making the current debiased price a fair reflection of general plausibility based on her prominence and past interactions with Donald Trump versus the lack of any concrete plans. |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 9.8% | 4.0% | While Marjorie Taylor Greene's strong public support for Donald Trump suggests a plausible visit to Mar-a-Lago, the provided web research explicitly states there is no available information regarding 2025 communications between Trump and Greene relevant to future interactions or potential visits. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution triggers if Jeff Bezos visits Mar-a-Lago between the market's issuance and January 1, 2027, with the visit reported by The New York Times, Politico, or other cited sources. If no such visit is reported by January 1, 2027, the market resolves to "No," closing early if the event occurs, or by the deadline otherwise. Trading is prohibited for employees of source agencies or individuals with material non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | $0.76 | $0.30 | 75% |
| Jeff Bezos | $0.33 | $0.72 | 33% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | $0.32 | $0.75 | 31% |
| Giorgia Meloni | $0.31 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | $0.24 | $0.81 | 24% |
| Jensen Huang | $0.27 | $0.78 | 21% |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | $0.26 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Xi Jinping | $0.20 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Vladimir Putin | $0.20 | $0.85 | 15% |
| James Fishback | $0.16 | $0.89 | 10% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | $0.10 | $0.92 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What 2025 Communications Existed Between Trump and Key GOP Figures?
| 2025 Trump-DeSantis Communications | No information available on private or public statements for policy alignment or 2028 endorsements [^]. |
|---|---|
| 119th Congress Policy Alignment | No specific facts or data points regarding policy discussions for the 119th Congress [^]. |
| Potential 2028 Endorsements | No details found concerning discussions about potential 2028 endorsements [^]. |
5. Which Foreign Leaders Met Trump-Aligned Figures in 2025?
| Israel Meeting | Itamar Ben-Gvir met GOP leaders at Mar-a-Lago (April 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Ukraine Meeting | Volodymyr Zelensky met Donald Trump in Florida (December 2025) [^] |
| Italy Meeting | Antonio Tajani met Senator Marco Rubio (July 2025) [^] |
6. What Were Ballard Partners' Tech Lobbying Activities in Q2 2026?
| Ballard Partners Total Income Q2 2026 | $5,500,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Ballard Partners Tech Clients Q2 2026 | Meta Platforms Inc., Nvidia Corporation [^] |
| Key Lobbying Issues for Meta/Nvidia Q2 2026 | Artificial Intelligence Regulation, Antitrust, Government Procurement (Nvidia) [^] |
7. Did Bezos, Zuckerberg, or Huang Donate to Trump in 2025-2026?
| Jeff Bezos Contributions/Events | No evidence found for late 2025 or early 2026. Prior donations to inauguration fund and Mar-a-Lago visits occurred in late 2024 [^]. |
|---|---|
| Mark Zuckerberg Contributions/Events | No evidence found for late 2025 or early 2026. Prior donations to inauguration fund and Mar-a-Lago dining occurred in late 2024 [^]. |
| Jensen Huang Contributions/Events | Not mentioned in any available sources in relation to Trump-affiliated entities or properties [^]. |
8. Will King Charles III Visit a Trump White House in 2026?
| Scheduled Event | State Visit by King Charles III and Queen Camilla [^] |
|---|---|
| Visit Date | April 2026 [^] |
| Visit Location | White House [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMARALAGO-27-BDON: YES (Mar 26, 2026)
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