What countries will Trump visit in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect China to be among the countries Trump visits in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Donald Trump confirmed plans for a China visit on May 14–15, 2026.
- Trump's 2026 foreign policy appears to prioritize China over traditional allies.
- Trump consistently attended G7 summits between 2017 and 2019.
- Major Middle East conflicts could trigger a 2026 visit to the region.
- Unconfirmed plans list France G7 and Turkey NATO summits in 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 96.0% | 99.0% | A visit would underscore ongoing trade negotiations and strategic discussions between the two global powers. |
| Turkey | 76.0% | 76.5% | Continued engagement with this key NATO ally is expected to address regional stability and security concerns. |
| Taiwan | 7.8% | 1.9% | A visit would signal robust support for Taiwan's autonomy amid complex geopolitical dynamics in the region. |
| Israel | 54.0% | 30.8% | Sustaining strong bilateral ties and addressing regional security concerns remain a consistent foreign policy priority. |
| Cuba | 11.0% | 2.9% | Renewed engagement or diplomatic discussions regarding the long-standing bilateral relationship may prompt a visit. |
Current Context
President Trump's 2026 international travel schedule includes confirmed participation in major global summits. His first international trip of the year is anticipated in January 2026, heading to Switzerland for the World Economic Summit, where he is expected to outline his vision for American global leadership [^]. This specific meeting had been previously postponed from March or April and occurs amidst ongoing diplomatic tensions concerning trade, Taiwan, and the Iran conflict [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, President Trump is confirmed to attend the 2026 NATO Summit, which will be hosted in Ankara, Turkey, and is also expected to attend the 52nd G7 summit [^].
Potential future international travel includes summits in Asia during the latter half of the year. There is speculation regarding a possible trip to Shenzhen, China, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November, though Beijing has not yet confirmed these additional meetings [^]. Furthermore, President Trump may attend the ASEAN summit, scheduled to be hosted by the Philippines in October 2026, although this visit is not guaranteed [^]. It is important to note that while the G20 Miami summit is planned, this event would be hosted within the United States, and therefore does not constitute an international trip [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a largely sideways trend, trading within a relatively stable range between 30% and 56%. After opening at a 50% probability, the price has settled slightly higher at a current price of 54%. This lack of significant volatility suggests the market has found a temporary equilibrium. Key technical levels appear to have formed, with a floor of support near the 30% low and a resistance ceiling at the 56% peak. The market has consistently traded above the 50% midpoint, indicating a slight positive bias.
The most significant price movement was a modest increase from 50% to 54% between late April and early May. This upward shift likely reflects the market processing news about President Trump's confirmed international travel for 2026. Reports mentioning his participation in global summits, coupled with ongoing diplomatic tensions in the Middle East concerning Iran, may have led traders to increase the perceived likelihood of a presidential visit to Israel, a key regional ally. The price has since stabilized at this new level, suggesting the market has absorbed this information.
Overall market sentiment, as reflected by the 54% price, is cautiously optimistic, viewing a visit to Israel as slightly more probable than not. The total volume of 2,287 contracts indicates a moderate level of engagement without exceptionally high conviction from traders. The price action suggests that while the market is responsive to geopolitical news, it is likely awaiting more definitive confirmation, such as an official itinerary announcement, before a more decisive price trend emerges.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Here's a summary of the contract rules for the Kalshi prediction market:
1. What exactly triggers a YES resolution The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present within Japan's internationally recognized borders after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027. This requires verifiable evidence from a specified source agency, and excludes instances like flying over, airport layovers (without leaving), or virtual appearances. 2. What triggers a NO resolution The market resolves to "No" if Donald Trump does not physically visit Japan under the specified conditions by January 1, 2027. 3. Key dates/deadlines The market opened on December 2, 2025. A qualifying visit must occur before January 1, 2027, when the market will close, unless it closes earlier upon the visit's occurrence. 4. Any special settlement conditions Physical presence within Japan is strictly defined, excluding layovers or embassy grounds. Resolution relies on reports from a list of approved news and official sources. Insider trading is prohibited for individuals employed by source agencies or holding material non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| France | $0.95 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Turkey | $0.74 | $0.27 | 76% |
| Israel | $0.55 | $0.46 | 54% |
| Japan | $0.53 | $0.51 | 53% |
| Germany | $0.45 | $0.56 | 42% |
| Saudi Arabia | $0.47 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Qatar | $0.32 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Canada | $0.30 | $0.75 | 29% |
| Italy | $0.28 | $0.74 | 28% |
| India | $0.27 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Poland | $0.31 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Mexico | $0.22 | $0.79 | 19% |
| Pakistan | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| Venezuela | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Cuba | $0.11 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Denmark | $0.10 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Russia | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Hungary | $0.11 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Ukraine | $0.11 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Vatican City | $0.10 | $0.93 | 10% |
| North Korea | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Taiwan | $0.08 | $0.95 | 8% |
| Palestine | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Traders in this market assign the highest probabilities to Donald Trump visiting Israel (54%) and Japan (53%) in 2026, with Germany currently less likely at 42%. Key arguments against visits include specific predictions that he will not travel to China or Mexico, and a notable point was raised questioning the validity of a market for Palestine due to its unrecognized status by the US government, which could impact market resolution. Overall, there is a mix of specific country-based predictions and some general anti-Trump sentiment contributing to "No" positions.
4. What diplomatic catalysts or security crises in the Middle East could trigger a visit by President Trump to Israel or Saudi Arabia in 2026?
| Potential Visit Year | 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Gaza Truce Establishment | October 2025 [^][^] |
| Defense Cooperation Act Introduced | March 2026 [^] |
Major regional conflicts or peace efforts could prompt a 2026 presidential visit. A primary driver for a potential presidential visit to Israel or Saudi Arabia in 2026 centers on developments in the US-Israel-Iran conflict or significant progress toward a Gaza peace deal [^][^][^]. An ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, characterized by strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities in early 2026, a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, and Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, is identified as an immediate catalyst [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. A critical juncture in this conflict, such as a major escalation, the pursuit of a comprehensive peace deal, or a breakthrough in nuclear negotiations including a moratorium on Iran's uranium enrichment, would likely trigger a presidential visit to coordinate strategy or participate in a settlement [^]. Additionally, if the fragile Gaza truce, established in October 2025, advances significantly, or if "Phase 2" of the peace plan focusing on governance and reconstruction gains momentum, a presidential visit to Israel might occur to endorse or personally drive these efforts, aligning with the administration's twenty-point plan for peace [^][^][^][^].
Other security crises and strategic realignments could also necessitate a visit. Beyond the Gaza truce, escalating settler violence and Palestinian displacement in the West Bank remain critical issues in 2026, where a major security crisis could necessitate presidential intervention or mediation [^][^][^][^]. The formalization of new security cooperation agreements, particularly the "Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act" introduced in March 2026 to establish a U.S.-backed regional security architecture, could also lead to a visit [^]. Furthermore, a new initiative with substantial economic or strategic implications, potentially involving the Abraham Fund, might prompt a presidential visit [^]. The formation of new regional blocs, such as Saudi Arabia's mutual defense pact with Pakistan, which Turkey is considering joining, could lead President Trump to visit Saudi Arabia to manage shifting alliances and ensure U.S. interests and influence in the region are maintained [^][^].
5. Based on his 2017-2020 travel record, how consistently did President Trump attend major multinational summits like the G7, NATO, and APEC?
| G7 Summits attended (2017-2019) | 3 (2017, 2018, 2019); 2020 summit canceled [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| NATO Summits attended (2017-2019) | 3 (2017, 2018, 2019); no major meeting in 2020 [^][^][^][^] |
| APEC Leaders' Meetings attended (2017-2020) | 2 (2017, 2020 virtual); U.S. represented by Pence in 2018 [^][^][^] |
President Trump consistently attended G7 summits from 2017 to 2019. He participated in the G7 meetings held in Italy in 2017 [^][^], Canada in 2018 [^][^], and France in 2019 [^][^]. The G7 leaders’ summit scheduled for 2020 was ultimately canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, meaning no attendance event took place that year [^][^][^][^].
President Trump consistently attended NATO leaders' meetings during his tenure. He participated in the major leaders meetings or summits held in Brussels, Belgium, in both 2017 [^][^] and 2018 [^][^], and in London/Watford, United Kingdom, in 2019 [^][^]. A major NATO leaders meeting did not occur in 2020 as a regular annual summit within the 2017-2020 timeframe, with the next meeting after 2019 scheduled for 2021 [^][^][^][^].
President Trump's attendance at APEC summits was less consistent. He attended the Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Vietnam in 2017 [^][^]. However, he did not attend the in-person 2018 APEC leaders meeting, where the U.S. was represented by Vice President Pence [^][^]. Information regarding his attendance at APEC in 2019 is not available in the provided facts. In 2020, President Trump participated virtually, which was reported as his first APEC participation since 2017 [^][^][^].
6. How do the stated 2026 foreign policy goals of the Trump administration prioritize a potential visit to China for APEC versus traditional allies like France or Germany?
| Primary Diplomacy Objective | China engagement and potential APEC visit [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Potential China Visit Timeline | November 2026, for APEC summit in Shenzhen [^][^][^][^] |
| Alliance Conditionality | Greater allied contributions for traditional allies [^][^] |
Trump's 2026 foreign policy prioritizes China engagement over traditional allies. The Trump administration's stated foreign policy goals for 2026 indicate a significant prioritization of engaging China, including a potential presidential visit for the APEC summit, framed as a major objective for presidential diplomacy [^][^][^]. Concurrently, traditional alliance relationships, such as with France, are positioned to be contingent on greater contributions from allied nations [^][^][^]. This strategic emphasis is reinforced by the 2026 National Defense Strategy, which prioritizes deterring China in the Indo-Pacific through strength while also engaging with Chinese military counterparts, thereby highlighting high-level engagement with China [^][^].
APEC China visit is a likely and significant diplomatic event. A potential visit to China in November 2026 for the APEC summit in Shenzhen is a key topic of discussion, with U.S. officials suggesting the possibility and prediction markets indicating a high probability of it occurring [^][^][^][^]. While Trump has mentioned he would "probably" attend the G7 summit in France in June 2026, strategic documents emphasize allied burden-sharing rather than making alliance travel the central method for managing relations with China [^][^]. The provided information does not contain details regarding a potential visit to Germany.
7. What are the primary official sources for tracking confirmed and potential international trips for President Trump throughout 2026?
| Primary Travel Tracking Source | White House website (Briefings & Statements, releases) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Confirmed 2026 Trip Example | UK state visit April 27–30, 2026 [^] |
| 'Visit' Definition for Market | Trump physically entering a country [^] |
The White House website is the primary official source for tracking presidential trips. Its "Briefings & Statements" and related "briefing-room" pages serve as the main official feed for communications regarding President Trump's confirmed and potential international trips throughout 2026 [^][^]. These pages feature press-secretary statements that outline prospective travel, including countries and dates, as well as "releases" that detail confirmed foreign-diplomacy items with specific dates and details about visiting countries [^][^][^].
Official announcements detail confirmed state visits and their specific dates. For instance, an announcement confirmed President Trump and the First Lady would welcome King Charles III and Queen Camilla for a UK state visit from April 27–30, 2026 [^]. Although the U.S. Department of State Office of the Historian maintains a "Travels of the President" database, its updates for current presidential travel are suspended, directing users to the White House for the most current information [^]. For prediction markets, a "visit" is specifically defined as President Trump physically entering a country, with official U.S. government information or verified communications from President Trump serving as primary resolution sources [^].
8. What shifts in the Ukraine conflict would be necessary to facilitate a presidential visit to either Kyiv or Moscow before the end of 2026?
| Primary requirement for presidential visit | Diplomatic and risk-management shifts [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Key condition for visit | Concrete ceasefire or tangible draft terms [^][^][^] |
| Status of planned Kyiv visit | Delayed in early May 2026 due to expected lack of tangible results [^][^] |
A presidential visit to Kyiv or Moscow requires significant diplomatic shifts and risk management. Such a trip before the end of 2026 would primarily necessitate substantial diplomatic and risk-management adjustments. A critical prerequisite for such a visit would be the establishment of a concrete ceasefire framework or tangible draft terms, aiming to break the ongoing deadlock [^][^][^].
A de-escalatory environment is essential for a credible presidential visit. Moreover, a de-escalatory environment sufficient to make a politically visible trip both safer and non-symbolic is imperative. For instance, in early May 2026, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly postponed a planned visit to Kyiv. This delay occurred because Washington assessed that renewed participation in Ukraine peace talks was unlikely to yield tangible results [^][^]. The intended structure for a presidential visit involved traveling to Kyiv first to meet with President Zelensky, followed by a trip to Moscow. This sequence suggests that such a visit is contingent on a credible, substantive diplomatic breakthrough rather than a continued stalemate [^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A trip-log-style 2026 page lists additional 2026 destinations as 'plans', including France (June 15–17 G7) and Turkey (July 7–8 Ankara NATO summit), among others; however, these are not the same as confirmed itinerary statements in the retrieved news sources [^] . For the purpose of resolution on Polymarket's 'Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?' contract, a visit is defined by Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Donald Trump confirmed plans to visit China for a summit with Xi Jinping on May 14–15, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: A trip-log-style 2026 page lists additional 2026 destinations as 'plans', including France (June 15–17 G7) and Turkey (July 7–8 Ankara NATO summit), among others; however, these are not the same as confirmed itinerary statements in the retrieved news sources [^] .
- Trigger: For the purpose of resolution on Polymarket's 'Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?' contract, a visit is defined by Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026 [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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