Will Tulsi Gabbard announce her departure as Director of National Intelligence?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump reportedly sought Tulsi Gabbard's resignation in March 2026.
- Advisors were polled on potential replacements for Gabbard.
- Policy disagreement regarding a March 2026 Iran strike arose.
- This conflict strongly indicates her departure before January 2027.
- Recent market activity reflects heightened expectations for her departure.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 3.2% | 4.8% | Model higher by 1.6pp |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 23.0% | 25.8% | Model higher by 2.8pp |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 36.0% | 38.5% | Model higher by 2.5pp |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 54.0% | 55.4% | Model higher by 1.4pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026
📈 April 22, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 30.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026
📈 April 21, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 41.0% to 51.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Tulsi Gabbard announces her departure or leaves the Director of National Intelligence role before August 1, 2026, based on public announcements from specified news organizations or official records. Otherwise, it resolves to "No," which can also occur if the role ceases to exist without a plausible successor. Temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals do not qualify, but death may resolve contracts at the last fair price, and the market closes by July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT if the event has not occurred.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.27 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | $0.39 | $0.64 | 36% |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | $0.54 | $0.51 | 54% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the nature of Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard's relationship?
| Initial Impression | Trump reportedly impressed and praised Gabbard's work on alleged election fraud [^] |
|---|---|
| Policy Divergence | Trump publicly disagreed with Gabbard on the Iran nuclear issue and dismissed intel briefings [^] |
| Job Security Intervention | Roger Stone persuaded Trump not to fire Tulsi Gabbard despite tensions [^] |
6. What Changes Has Tulsi Gabbard Implemented as DNI?
| ODNI Staff Reduction | Approximately 40% [^] |
|---|---|
| Top Officials Fired | Two at US National Intelligence Council [^] |
| Internal Dissent | Anonymous leaks, CIA objections to declassification [^] |
7. Is Tulsi Gabbard Preparing for a 2028 Presidential Run?
| PAC Connections | Connected to "For Love of Country" and "Defend Freedom" PACs with financial activity [^] |
|---|---|
| Past Campaign Committees | "TEAM TULSI" [^] and "OUR FREEDOM, OUR FUTURE" [^] listed with FEC |
| 2028 Presidential Run | Has not ruled out a 2028 presidential bid [^] |
8. How Has Tulsi Gabbard's Relationship With Intelligence Committees Evolved?
| SSCI Initial Support | Nomination advanced, Chairman Tom Cotton expressed confidence [^] |
|---|---|
| SSCI Vice Chairman Criticism | Mark Warner accused Gabbard of 'abuse and politicization' [^] and planning 'slash intelligence staff' [^] |
| HPSCI Oversight Stance | Chairman Crawford emphasized 'rigorous oversight' but no specific public criticisms [^] |
9. What Caused Trump's Conflict with Tulsi Gabbard Over Iran?
| Iran Strike Event | March 2026 amid nuclear talks [^] |
|---|---|
| Gabbard's Stance | Avoided answering whether Iran posed an 'imminent threat' [^] |
| Trump's Action | Sought DNI Tulsi Gabbard's resignation by April 2, 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 08, 2026
- Closes: August 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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