Will Trump expand the H1-B program?

The Trump administration implemented restrictive H-1B visa policies to protect American jobs. During his 2017-2021 term, Donald Trump's administration enacted policies concerning H-1B visas that included a program suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic aimed at safeguarding American employment ^{[^][^]}. The administration sought to overhaul the H-1B lottery system to prioritize higher-skilled, higher-paid workers and increased minimum wage requirements for visa holders ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. This tightening of standards notably led to a rise in H-1B denial rates, escalating from 6% in 2015 to 32% in 2019 ^{[^][^]}. Furthermore, a substantial one-time fee of $100,000 for new H-1B petitions was announced in September 2025, intended to deter the use of the program for lower-paid positions ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. Exemptions to these policies were noted for those providing "economic benefit" or serving the "national interest" ^{[^][^][^]}.

Donald Trump's recent statements reflect a more favorable view of high-skilled immigration. In contrast to the policies implemented during his earlier administration, Trump has indicated a more positive stance on high-skilled immigration in recent public comments. In December 2024, he expressed that he "always liked the visas" and referred to the H-1B program as a "great program," also suggesting that foreign students graduating from U.S. colleges should automatically receive a green card ^{[^]}. Additionally, in November 2025, he publicly stated that H-1B visas are "necessary to bring talented workers to the U.S.," acknowledging a national lack of certain talents and defending the need for skilled foreign workers ^{[^][^]}.

The Trump administration initiated H-1B reforms with "Buy American, Hire American." Executive Order 13788, titled "Buy American and Hire American," was signed on April 18, 2017, and published on April 21, 2017 [^] [^] [^] . This order directed various Secretaries, including the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), to protect U.S. workers from potential adverse effects caused by H-1B visa holders. It also instructed DHS and other agencies to propose reforms and issue guidance to ensure H-1B visas were primarily awarded to the most-skilled or highest-paid beneficiaries ^{[^]}.

DHS implemented new rules to strengthen H-1B visa classification standards. Following this directive, DHS published an interim final rule, "Strengthening the H-1B Nonimmigrant Visa Classification Program," on October 8, 2020, becoming effective on December 7, 2020 ^{[^]}. This rule introduced amendments to 8 CFR 214 governing H-1B visas, revising definitions and standards for "specialty occupation," defining "worksite" and "third-party worksite," and clarifying the "employer-employee relationship" by revising "United States employer" ^{[^]}. Additionally, it mandated corroborating evidence for work in a specialty occupation, restricted the validity of third-party placement petitions to one year, updated itinerary requirements, and codified USCIS H-1B site-visit authority, outlining consequences for non-compliance ^{[^]}. These changes were explicitly intended to constrain third-party worksite arrangements, such as IT-outsourcing models, and to narrow the criteria for qualifying for an H-1B specialty occupation through degree-field alignment ^{[^]}, though some parts were subsequently blocked by courts before full implementation ^{[^]}.

Executive actions aimed to protect U.S. workers, not expand the H-1B program. Contrary to any perception of expansion, the specific policy texts of the 2017-2021 executive directive (EO 13788) and the subsequent DHS "Strengthening" rule do not indicate an intent to expand the H-1B program ^{[^][^][^]}. Instead, these actions were framed by sources as measures to protect U.S. workers and enhance program integrity, rather than to increase the statutory H-1B cap ^{[^][^][^]}.

The proposed $100,000 H1-B visa fee faces significant legal hurdles and ongoing challenges. This fee, enacted through a presidential proclamation, is currently being appealed despite a U.S. District Court Judge ruling against an opposing lawsuit in December 2025 ^{[^][^]}. Reportedly, 20 states have challenged the measure, asserting it violates the Administrative Procedure Act ^{[^][^]}. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) have clarified that the fee applies to individuals who do not possess a valid H1-B visa at the time of filing, but it does not apply to petitions for those already in the U.S. seeking a change of status, extension, or amendment of their H1-B visa ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

This substantial fee increase presents a significant burden for many employers, especially small businesses. It represents a dramatic increase from previous costs, which typically ranged from $1,700 to $4,500 per petition ^{[^][^][^][^]}. This increased cost creates a particular hardship for startups, small businesses, and employers in crucial sectors such as healthcare and public school systems ^{[^][^][^][^]}. Critics argue that the fee could deter highly skilled foreign workers, potentially leading to a "brain drain" as talent considers countries with more favorable visa policies ^{[^][^][^]}. Such an exodus could negatively impact America's ability to attract and retain talent in critical fields like technology and artificial intelligence, potentially resulting in reduced innovation, delayed projects, and a shift of work to other countries ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}.

The fee signifies a broader shift towards a more restrictive H1-B program, prioritizing American workers. Over 70% of H1-B visa holders are Indian citizens, and India's Ministry of External Affairs has expressed concerns regarding the humanitarian consequences ^{[^][^][^]}. The substantial fee increase and heightened scrutiny on applications indicate an intent to make the program more restrictive ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. Proposed changes also aim to favor higher-paid jobs and potentially specific "U.S. workforce needs" in critical sectors like advanced technology and artificial intelligence, potentially transforming the H1-B into a "luxury work permit" ^{[^][^][^]}. However, some rule changes have been made to allow more non-profits and government research organizations to qualify as cap-exempt employers and broaden the definition of a U.S. employer to include beneficiary-owned companies, potentially promoting access for entrepreneurs ^{[^]}.

H-1B Requests for Evidence rates significantly fluctuated between 2017 and 2024. RFE rates saw a substantial increase from fiscal years 2017 to 2019, peaking at 40.2% in FY 2019 ^{[^]}. This trend reversed sharply in FY 2020 and FY 2021, with rates falling to 16.2% by FY 2021 ^{[^]}. The downward trajectory continued into recent fiscal years, with RFE incidence recorded at 9.6% in FY 2022, 10.5% in FY 2023, and 8% for the 407,625 petitions completed in FY 2024 ^{[^][^]}. These figures indicate a consistent decline in RFEs after the 2019 peak.

H-1B petition denial rates dramatically decreased, increasing approvals. Initial petition denial rates plummeted from 24% in FY 2018 and 21% in FY 2019 to just 4% in FY 2021 ^{[^][^]}. This significant reduction suggests an improved approval rate for H-1B petitions, likely influenced by legal and policy adjustments implemented after FY 2020 ^{[^][^]}. In FY 2024, USCIS approved a total of 399,395 H-1B petitions, which included 141,205 initial petitions and 258,190 continuing petitions ^{[^]}.

Expectations for H-1B expansion remain low despite tech leader advocacy. Figures such as Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy publicly advocate for the H-1B visa program, positioning themselves against restrictionist elements within the MAGA movement, and former President Trump has shown alignment with some tech leaders on immigrant visas ^{[^][^][^]}. However, despite this advocacy, prediction markets and analysts consistently show low expectations for a significant expansion of the H-1B program during a potential second Trump term, with predictions ranging from 17% to 36% ^{[^][^]}.

Trump's administration implemented several restrictive H-1B policies. The previous Trump administration has already enacted or proposed multiple restrictive H-1B measures. These include a substantial $100,000 per-petition fee set to be effective in 2025, a revised lottery system that prioritizes higher salaries, and proposed significant increases to prevailing wage requirements ranging from 21% to 33% by May 2026 ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. Experts have characterized the cumulative impact of these policies as a "sledgehammer," resulting in a reported 38% decline in H-1B visa applications, which indicates a strong chilling effect rather than any form of expansion ^{[^][^]}.

Entrenched policies make significant H-1B program expansion highly improbable. Consequently, even with continued lobbying efforts from tech leaders, the established pattern of restrictive measures suggests that a second Trump administration is likely to maintain these trends ^{[^][^]}. The consistently low expectations for H-1B expansion observed among analysts and in prediction markets accurately reflect the reality of these entrenched policies, making a significant expansion of the program highly improbable ^{[^][^][^][^]}.

The Trump administration has actively restricted the H-1B program since September 2025 rather than expanding it. Key measures include a $100,000 fee for new petitions, a weighted lottery system favoring high-wage/high-skill applicants, and proposed significant increases to prevailing wage requirements ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^][^]}. These policies have contributed to a 38.5% decline in properly submitted H-1B applications for the FY2027 lottery, with a shift in approvals toward candidates with advanced U.S. degrees ^{[^][^]}.

Prediction markets consistently reflect a very low probability of the H-1B cap being increased or the program being expanded under the current administration, with some markets tracking nearly 0% probability for expansion initiatives ^{[^][^]}.