How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect 1 reconciliation bill to be passed in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- First FY 2026 reconciliation bill is significantly advanced, budget resolution adopted.
- Draft text for FY2026 reconciliation bill released by Senate committees on May 05, 2026.
- A potential "reconciliation 2.0" is discussed but faces significant political hurdles.
- Historically, more than one reconciliation bill has passed in some calendar years.
- Passing a second bill requires a renewed budget-resolution bargain and faces many obstacles.
- No concrete proposals or discussion exist for a third reconciliation bill in 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9% | 2.6% | Political divisions and Byrd Rule challenges could theoretically derail the advanced reconciliation bill. |
| 1 | 72.0% | 76.8% | One FY 2026 reconciliation bill is well underway, with all major procedural steps confirmed. |
| 2 | 23.0% | 20.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
A major FY 2026 reconciliation effort is actively underway. The House has adopted a budget resolution and initiated drafting a "narrow reconciliation bill" intended to provide up to $70 billion in funding for ICE/Customs and Border Protection, per committee instructions [^]. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates this FY 2026 reconciliation package would add approximately $72 billion to the deficit over the next decade, based on bill text released by Senate committees [^].
Prediction markets indicate high probability for one reconciliation bill by May 2026. A market asking whether the Senate passes a reconciliation bill by May 31, 2026, shows an implied probability of approximately 76% (YES priced at $0.76) [^]. This timeline aligns with May 15 committee text submission deadlines and subsequent vote-a-rama for floor consideration. While there is discussion of potential additional reconciliation measures, sometimes referred to as "reconciliation 2.0" or a "second" bill before midterms, these sources primarily describe proposals or possibilities rather than confirmed passage of multiple distinct reconciliation bills in 2026 [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has experienced a significant downward trend, with the probability of more than one reconciliation bill passing in 2026 falling from a high of 13.0% to a current low of 4.9%. The most substantial price movement was a sharp drop from 13.0% to 4.9% between late April and early May. This decline appears to be a direct reaction to recent news solidifying plans for a single, "narrow reconciliation bill." As legislative focus and political capital coalesced around this one specific bill, traders seem to have revised their expectations, dramatically lowering the perceived likelihood that Congress would have the capacity or need to pass a second, separate reconciliation bill within the same year.
The initial price of 13.0% acted as a short-term ceiling before the price collapsed to the new low around 4.9%, which may now serve as a support level. The total trading volume of over 3,800 contracts indicates a history of active participation in the market. However, the sample data shows the recent price drop occurred on days with low or zero volume, which could suggest the move was driven by a small number of participants or a broader re-evaluation without significant new money entering the market. Overall, the price action reflects a strong shift in market sentiment. The market has moved from pricing a small but non-trivial chance of multiple bills to a consensus that the one currently under discussion is likely to be the only reconciliation bill passed in 2026.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 06, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 63.0% to 72.0%
Outcome: 1
What happened: The primary driver for the market movement was traditional news reporting on the progress of the FY2026 budget reconciliation process. On May 05, 2026, the day before the market spike, Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security committees released draft text for an FY2026 reconciliation bill [^]. This measure was specifically described by CRFB and Roll Call as a single FY2026 reconciliation bill, strongly indicating that only one such bill was in play for the year [^]. This development directly supported the "1" outcome and coincided with the market's 9.0 percentage point spike on May 06, 2026. Social media was not identified as a primary driver from the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if exactly one reconciliation bill becomes law between November 25, 2025, and December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The outcome is verified by the Library of Congress. Trading is prohibited for individuals employed by Source Agencies or those possessing material, non-public information. The market opens November 26, 2025, and closes January 2, 2027, with payouts projected shortly thereafter.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $0.75 | $0.27 | 72% |
| 2 | $0.25 | $0.77 | 23% |
| 0 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 5% |
Market Discussion
The House adopted the Fiscal Year 2026 budget resolution on April 29, 2026, following the Senate's passage on April 26, 2026, setting the stage for a reconciliation package that Senate leadership aims to pass by June 1, 2026 [^][^]. Prediction markets indicate a 76% probability of the Senate passing a reconciliation bill by May 31, 2026 [^]. Discussions among political analysts also point to the possibility of a second reconciliation bill, sometimes termed "Reconciliation 2.0," in 2026 [^][^][^].
5. What political or economic catalysts would be required for Congress to pass a second reconciliation bill before the 2026 midterm elections?
| Procedural Requirement | Renewed budget-resolution bargain with directives and deadlines [^] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Deficit Increase (FY2026 draft) | About $72 billion over the next decade (about $94 billion with interest) [^] |
| Market Probability (2026 reconciliation) | Low-to-moderate [^][^] |
A renewed budget resolution is essential for any second reconciliation effort. For Congress to pass a second reconciliation bill before the 2026 midterm elections, a new budget-resolution bargain would be required to establish a second set of reconciliation directives and deadlines [^]. Reconciliation bills must adhere to the directives specified in a budget resolution, meaning Congress cannot simply pass another reconciliation bill like ordinary legislation without this procedural trigger [^].
Political and scheduling constraints severely limit further reconciliation attempts. Political scheduling and coalition fragility are identified as significant limiting factors for additional reconciliation attempts [^][^]. Commentary frames a second reconciliation package as a 'second bite at the apple' but emphasizes the rapidly approaching midterms, the 'tremendous strain on congressional schedules,' and coalition friction as reasons such a package is unlikely [^][^]. In 2026, achieving unity for election-year reconciliation proved elusive for House Republicans, as opposition from the House Freedom Caucus and other hardline members, along with concerns from members facing tight reelection bids, complicated vote counts [^]. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that a hypothetical FY2026 reconciliation draft would add approximately $72 billion to the deficit over the next decade (or about $94 billion with interest), illustrating the deficit trade-off environment that would influence the construction of any second reconciliation bill with acceptable offsets [^].
6. What procedural steps and CBO analyses confirm the progress of the first FY 2026 reconciliation bill through Congress?
| Senate adoption of S.Con.Res. 33 | April 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| House adoption of S.Con.Res. 33 | May 1, 2026 [^] |
| Estimated deficit increase (FY26 reconciliation) | $72 billion over the next decade, or about $94 billion with interest [^] |
Congress adopted the FY 2026 budget resolution, initiating reconciliation. The initial procedural steps for the first FY 2026 reconciliation bill were confirmed with the adoption of the FY 2026 budget resolution, S.Con.Res. 33, by both chambers of Congress. The Senate adopted S.Con.Res. 33 on April 23, 2026, by a 50–48 vote, including directives for committees to submit recommendations by May 15, 2026 [^]. Subsequently, the House passed the same budget resolution on May 1, 2026, with a 215–211 vote, officially activating reconciliation authority in both chambers [^].
The CBO analyzed the reconciliation bill's fiscal impact. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the FY 2026 reconciliation package would add an estimated $72 billion to the deficit over the next decade, increasing to approximately $94 billion when interest is included [^]. The CBO characterizes budget reconciliation as an expedited process for implementing policies outlined in a congressional budget resolution, which serves as a necessary procedural step for subsequent reconciliation legislation [^]. However, current information does not detail further procedural actions for the reconciliation bill itself, such as specific committee actions or votes following the budget resolution [^].
7. How do the scope and deficit impact of the proposed 'reconciliation 2.0' bill compare to the initial FY 2026 funding bill?
| Reconciliation 2.0 Deficit Increase | Up to $140 billion over FY2026-2035 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Initial FY 2026 Net Base Funding | $1.639 trillion [^] |
| Reconciliation 2.0 Legislation Deadline | May 15, 2026 [^][^] |
Reconciliation 2.0 projects a significant deficit increase despite reform recommendations. The proposed 'reconciliation 2.0' bill is projected to increase the deficit by up to $140 billion over fiscal years 2026-2035 [^][^]. This legislation specifically allocates approximately $70 billion towards ICE/CBP for border security, building on a prior $140 billion allocation [^]. Despite the projected deficit increase, analysts suggest that Reconciliation 2.0 should aim for a deficit reduction of at least $600 billion. This recommendation comes particularly in light of the previous 2025 reconciliation (OBBBA), which reportedly added $3.4 trillion to deficits [^].
The initial FY 2026 funding bill’s deficit impact is unclear. In contrast to reconciliation, the initial FY 2026 funding bill outlines $1.639 trillion in net base funding distributed across 12 separate bills [^]. This total represents an increase of $38.5 billion compared to the FY2025 enacted levels [^]. However, the provided information specifies only the overall funding level for the initial FY 2026 bill and does not detail its direct impact on the national deficit [^]. Consequently, a direct overall deficit impact comparison between Reconciliation 2.0 and the initial FY 2026 funding bill is not fully possible with the currently available data [^][^][^].
Reconciliation 2.0 faces a May 2026 deadline with high passage odds. The deadline for submitting the Reconciliation 2.0 legislation is May 15, 2026 [^][^]. Market predictions indicate a high probability of one reconciliation bill being enacted in 2026, with Polymarket odds favoring Senate passage by May 31, 2026 [^].
8. What historical data from the Congressional Research Service exists on the number of reconciliation bills passed per calendar year since 1980?
| Reconciliation Acts Sent to President (Since 1980) | 28 [^] |
|---|---|
| Reconciliation Acts Signed into Law (Since 1980) | 24 [^] |
| Reconciliation Acts Vetoed (Since 1980) | 4 [^] |
Historical data on reconciliation acts exists from 1980 onward. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report R40480 provides historical data on reconciliation acts enacted into law since 1980. This report indicates that a total of 28 reconciliation acts have been presented to the President, with 24 subsequently signed into law and 4 vetoed [^]. While the report does not offer a pre-aggregated count of reconciliation bills passed per calendar year, its Table 1, which lists acts by their enactment year and date, allows for the manual determination of the number enacted in each calendar year since 1980 [^].
CRS tracks multiple legislative timing definitions for reconciliation bills. A separate CRS report, RL30458, highlights that the Congressional Research Service monitors various timing definitions for legislative actions, including enactment or veto dates and dates of House or Senate action [^]. This detailed historical record of reconciliation bills is suitable for use in prediction markets, such as those forecasting the number of reconciliation bills passed in a future year, provided that the market's resolution definition accurately matches a specific timing concept tracked by CRS, such as whether a bill was enacted into law or merely passed by the House or Senate [^][^].
9. What are the primary procedural hurdles, such as the Byrd Rule, that could prevent either the first or a potential second reconciliation bill from passing the Senate in 2026?
| Byrd Rule Waiver | 60-vote majority (three-fifths) of the Senate [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Veto Override | Two-thirds majority vote in both chambers [^] |
| Budget Resolution Instructions | Changes in statutory debt limits, revenues, or direct spending [^] |
Passing reconciliation bills begins with a mandatory fiscal year budget resolution. Before a reconciliation bill can proceed, the Senate requires the prior passage of a budget resolution for the specific fiscal year [^][^][^][^]. This foundational resolution must contain "reconciliation instructions" for relevant committees, which strictly limit any legislative changes to statutory debt limits, revenues, or direct spending [^].
The Byrd Rule is a significant hurdle preventing non-fiscal provisions. A major procedural barrier is the Senate's Byrd Rule, which specifically targets "extraneous" provisions that are not primarily fiscal in nature [^][^][^][^]. A Senator can challenge such provisions by raising a "point of order," with the Senate Parliamentarian providing advice on whether the provision is extraneous [^][^][^][^]. Provisions are considered extraneous if they do not result in changes to outlays or revenues, or if their budgetary impact is only "merely incidental" to non-budgetary policy [^][^][^][^][^]. The rule also prohibits measures that would increase deficits beyond the established budget window, unless they are long-term budget-neutral, a condition that frequently leads to the inclusion of "sunset" provisions [^][^][^][^]. Overcoming a Byrd Rule point of order requires a three-fifths, or 60-vote, majority in the Senate [^][^][^].
Additional procedural challenges include amendments, PAYGO, and presidential veto power. Beyond the Byrd Rule, reconciliation bills face other procedural obstacles such as the "vote-a-rama," a process during floor consideration where numerous amendments are debated and voted upon [^][^][^]. These amendments must be germane to the bill's purpose and generally deficit-neutral [^][^][^]. Furthermore, the Senate's "Pay-as-You-Go" (PAYGO) rule applies, designed to prevent increases in the deficit [^]. Finally, the President holds the power to veto any bill passed by Congress, which can only be overridden by a two-thirds majority vote in both the House and the Senate [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The budget reconciliation process is a significant mechanism in the U.S. Congress because it allows bills to pass with a simple majority of 51 votes (or 50 votes plus the Vice President as a tie-breaker) in the Senate, bypassing the filibuster's 60-vote requirement [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. These bills are restricted to matters affecting mandatory spending, revenues (taxes), and the federal debt limit [^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, they must adhere to the "Byrd Rule," which prevents the inclusion of extraneous policy provisions and prohibits increasing the federal deficit beyond a 10-year window [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Congress can pass a maximum of three reconciliation bills per fiscal year, categorized for spending, revenue, and the debt limit, although these categories can be combined [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Since 1980, 24 reconciliation bills have been enacted into law [^][^].
The likelihood of reconciliation bills passing in 2026 hinges on several key factors. Primarily, reconciliation is most frequently utilized when the same political party controls the Presidency, the House, and the Senate, but lacks the 60-vote supermajority in the Senate needed for other legislation [^]. Furthermore, a critical prerequisite is the adoption of a budget resolution by both the House and Senate, which must include "reconciliation instructions" for relevant committees [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Without the adoption of such a budget resolution, the reconciliation process cannot occur [^]. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, can also offer real-time, probability-based interpretations of potential political developments related to legislative actions [^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 02, 2027
- Closes: January 02, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The budget reconciliation process is a significant mechanism in the U.S.
- Trigger: Congress because it allows bills to pass with a simple majority of 51 votes (or 50 votes plus the Vice President as a tie-breaker) in the Senate, bypassing the filibuster's 60-vote requirement [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: These bills are restricted to matters affecting mandatory spending, revenues (taxes), and the federal debt limit [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, they must adhere to the "Byrd Rule," which prevents the inclusion of extraneous policy provisions and prohibits increasing the federal deficit beyond a 10-year window [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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