Which bills will become law in 2026?

Late 2026 presents a narrow window for non-essential legislation. The U.S. legislative calendar for late 2026 will significantly constrain the period available for non-essential bills to become law ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. Key dates include the Senate's scheduled October recess, running from October 5 to November 6, 2026, and the expected conclusion of the 119th Congress's second session around December 17–18, 2026 ^{[^][^][^]}. Consequently, bills not close to completion by early to mid-October will likely struggle to pass before the ultimate deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET ^{[^][^]}.

Congress will prioritize essential legislation during the constrained lame-duck period. During this limited timeframe, particularly the lame-duck phase, Congress's focus will be heavily diverted toward critical, must-pass items ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. A primary concern is the completion of fiscal year 2026 spending, with leaders emphasizing the urgency to prevent another government shutdown, despite ongoing disagreements among appropriators regarding top lines and riders ^{[^][^]}. This dedicated attention to appropriations, defense policy, and other essential year-end matters will reduce the available bandwidth and attention for standalone, non-essential legislation ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}.

The FY2027 NDAA could include critical minerals provisions, based on precedent. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed on December 18, 2025, notably incorporated specific National Defense Stockpile subtitles, including Subtitle B, Sections 1411-1412 ^{[^][^]}. This legislative interest is further supported by a substantial FY2027 budget request exceeding $18.005 billion for the National Defense Stockpile, aimed at reducing foreign dependence ^{[^][^]}.

Significant shortfalls and active legislation underscore the need for critical mineral provisions. The National Defense Stockpile only covered 6.2% of wartime shortfalls in the early 2020s, representing a critical $14.83 billion gap ^{[^]}. Complementing this, legislative efforts demonstrate robust interest; H.R.3617, known as the "Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act," passed the House on February 11, 2026, and is currently pending action in the Senate ^{[^][^]}.

The upcoming NDAA legislative cycle presents a timely integration opportunity for these provisions. As of May 8, 2026, the FY2027 NDAA has not yet been introduced, but its legislative process traditionally begins in the middle of the year ^{[^]}. This timeline offers a clear window for critical-minerals stockpile provisions to be thoroughly considered and potentially integrated into the forthcoming defense authorization act.

The Credit Card Competition Act demonstrates strong bipartisan support across both chambers. This legislation showcases explicit bipartisan leadership in both the House and Senate. In the Senate, the bill is championed by Senator Dick Durbin (D) and Senator Roger Marshall (R) ^{[^][^][^]}. In the House, Representative Lance Gooden (R) and Representative Zoe Lofgren (D) are leading the legislation ^{[^][^][^]}. The bipartisan appeal of the Credit Card Competition Act was further highlighted by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in January 2026 ^{[^][^][^]}.

Several AI-chip export licensing bills also exhibit bipartisan sponsorship. Multiple proposed AI-chip export licensing bills similarly demonstrate bipartisan support, primarily within the Senate. For instance, the MATCH Act was introduced in April 2026 by Representative Bill Huizenga (R), Senator Pete Ricketts (R), and Senator Andy Kim (D) ^{[^]}. Bill 1473 was another such instance, introduced by Senators Mike Rounds (R) and Mark Warner (D) in April 2025 ^{[^]}. Additionally, the Guaranteeing Access and Innovation for National Artificial Intelligence Act (GAIN AI Act) was put forth by a bipartisan group of senators, including Jim Banks (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D), in November 2025 ^{[^]}.

The Credit Card Competition Act shows broader bipartisan support across Congress. While AI-chip legislation features bipartisan sponsorship among senators and includes one Republican representative for the MATCH Act, the Credit Card Competition Act provides more comprehensive details regarding its bipartisan leadership spanning both congressional chambers ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^][^]}.

For reliable real-time tracking of a bill's progress from committee to law in the 119th Congress, the most effective public data sources are Congress.gov’s bill API and GovInfo BILLSTATUS XML bulk data. The Congress.gov bill API offers real-time tracking through its `latestAction` and `updateDateIncludingText/updateDate` fields, which include timestamps for the last update received, enabling programmatic measurement of progress ^{[^][^][^]}. For reliable near-real-time committee-to-floor progress at scale, GovInfo's BILLSTATUS XML bulk data is highly effective, updating for the current Congress on approximately a four-hour cadence ^{[^][^][^]}. In contrast, GovTrack's "bill status" information is derived from GovInfo.gov's BILLSTATUS bulk data but typically reflects legislative activity on the next business day, positioning it as less immediate than directly accessing the primary sources ^{[^]}.

Congress.gov public laws is canonical for official enactment into law. To definitively confirm when a public bill or joint resolution has officially become law, Congress.gov's public laws by Congress serves as the authoritative "resolution" list ^{[^]}. Bills are incorporated into this list once the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) assigns a Public Law (PL) number, establishing it as the definitive endpoint for verifying a bill's enactment into law for the 119th Congress ^{[^]}.

National security events could increase pressure for reauthorization. Potential national security events are likely to increase political incentives to avoid a lapse in Section 702 ^{[^]}. If Section 702 expires, the FBI anticipates active collection stopping and leads going cold, which could lead to an increase in national security incidents and threats ^{[^]}. An FBI investigation into suspicious cyber activity on a critical intelligence network in March 2026 exemplifies the kind of event that could heighten the urgency for uninterrupted intelligence authorities ^{[^]}.

Congressional consensus challenges hinder long-term Section 702 reauthorization. Shifts in congressional leadership and difficulty in achieving consensus have complicated the reauthorization process. Section 702 initially had a statutory sunset of April 20, 2026, under the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act (RISAA) ^{[^]}. Congress passed a second 45-day extension in late April 2026, with a House vote of 261–111 and unanimous Senate consent, after failing to reach agreement on reforms ^{[^][^][^]}. While the House passed a three-year reauthorization, the Senate Majority Leader noted it would be difficult in the Senate due to unrelated language, such as a Federal Reserve CBDC ban, pushing lawmakers toward short-term 'clean' paths ^{[^][^][^]}. As of early May 2026, this 45-day extension pushed the next negotiation and expiration deadline to mid-June (June 12), indicating that leadership agreement on sequencing and committee progress in May or early June would be crucial for any end-2026 final passage ^{[^]}. Members of Congress continue to advocate for substantive Fourth Amendment and data broker reforms, suggesting that reform-oriented members may resist a 'clean' longer-term passage unless leadership allows reform-friendly amendments to be considered ^{[^]}.

Several bills are being monitored for potential enactment by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, requiring passage by both chambers and signing/enactment into law [^] . Predictions & Odds | Polymarket">[^]. These include bills like the "Housing for the 21st Century Act" and "Export-control chip security" ^{[^]}. Additionally, the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567) was introduced on Feb. 13, 2026 and reported favorably out of the House Agriculture Committee on March 5, 2026 ^{[^]}.

Reauthorization of FISA Title VII, specifically Section 702 for two years, is a significant event to watch, with legislation qualifying if it includes Public Law 118-49 and is signed into law by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET [^] . Predictions & Odds | Polymarket">[^]. Another key development is the potential enactment of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET ^{[^]}. However, Polymarket traders have reportedly adjusted the odds for the Clarity Act's passage in 2026 downward, from 64% on Apr 18 to 43% by the article’s press time on Apr 23, reportedly due to delays in Senate markup scheduling ^{[^]}.