Which bills will become law in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Housing for the 21st Century Act is most likely to become law in 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has experienced a significant upward trend, with the probability of the outcome rising from a low of 8.0% to its current price of 15.0%. The most notable movement was a sharp increase from 8.0% on April 24 to 15.0% by May 1. This price spike corresponds directly with news that the President signed H.R. 7147 into law on April 30. The market appears to have reacted to this legislative success by significantly increasing its probability assessment. This new 15.0% level has since acted as a stable price point, suggesting it has become a new support level for the market.
The trading volume for this market is exceptionally low, with only 26 total contracts traded. The sample data shows zero volume during the period of the major price adjustment, which indicates the shift may have been caused by a market maker update or a very small number of trades rather than a broad consensus among many participants. This low liquidity suggests that conviction behind the price is limited. Overall, market sentiment has clearly shifted to be more optimistic, driven by the recent passage of several key bills. The chart indicates that traders believe the likelihood of more bills becoming law has increased, though the absolute probability estimate remains modest at 15.0%.
- Late 2026 legislative calendar likely constrains non-essential bills.
- Critical minerals provisions could attach to the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act.
- The Credit Card Competition Act shows strong bipartisan support across both chambers.
- National security events may increase pressure for FISA Section 702 reauthorization.
- The Farm, Food, and National Security Act (H.R. 7567) was reported favorably.
- Several key bills, including "Export-control chip security," are being monitored.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 11.0% | 3.6% | Octagon research indicates low likelihood for this specific two-year reauthorization. |
| SHOWER Act | 23.0% | 12.2% | Octagon research suggests this bill faces moderate headwinds for passage. |
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 76.0% | 68.6% | Octagon research indicates strong support for this housing legislation. |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 39.0% | 26.0% | Octagon research shows some support, but challenges for enactment remain. |
| $2.50 Coin | 17.0% | 8.1% | Octagon research suggests limited momentum for the $2.50 Coin legislation. |
Current Context
Several key bills have successfully become law in early 2026. The White House reported that the President signed H.R. 7147, known as the “Homeland Security and Further Additional Continuing Appropriations Act, 2026,” into law on April 30, 2026 [1]. Additionally, S. 723, the “Tribal Trust Land Homeownership Act of 2025,” was signed into law by the President on May 4, 2026 [2]. Earlier in the year, the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026,” designated as H.R. 7148, became Public Law 119-75 on February 3, 2026 [3].
Other significant legislation faces ongoing legislative hurdles and uncertain outcomes. The reauthorization of FISA Section 702 saw Congress pass a 45-day extension, which was sent to the President, pushing negotiations and the deadline to June 12, 2026 [4][5]. H.R. 7567, titled the “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026,” passed the House on April 30, 2026, but still requires Senate consideration and presidential signature to become law [6]. Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act is currently assessed to have approximately 50-50 odds of being enacted in 2026, pending remaining Senate-floor steps, reconciliation, and presidential approval [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Congressional Bill H.R. 7147 Signed into Law – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 2Congressional Bill S. 723 Signed into Law – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 3H.R.7148 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 4FISA Section 702: Congress passes extension of surveillance programcnbc.com
- 5Congress Punts FISA Section 702 Renewal to June - Security Boulevardsecurityboulevard.com
- 6Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 7CLARITY Act Update: Final Push Aheadgalaxy.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
📉 April 29, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 34.0% to 21.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point drop was the discrepancy between the market's "2 years" reauthorization outcome and the actual legislative action. On April 17, 2026, H.R. 8322, which extended FISA Section 702 authorities only "through April 30, 2026," was passed by Congress and signed into public law [1][2][3]. This short-term extension did not fulfill the market's specific condition for a two-year reauthorization. The market movement on April 29, 2026, likely represents the full realization that the "2 years" outcome had not materialized and would not by the extension's expiration. No specific social media activity appears to have driven this movement.
Outcome: Critical-minerals stockpile
📉 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 55.0% to 46.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point drop on April 25, 2026, appears to be news reporting that the "U.S. stockpile stalls" for critical minerals legislation. A critical minerals report dated April 26, 2026, indicated that the U.S. stockpile initiative was stalling, with this development directly suggesting "potential setbacks in advancing critical minerals legislation" and explaining "the observed drop in predicted probability" [4]. This traditional news report coincides with the market movement. There is no specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives identified in the provided research that directly led to or coincided with this price drop. Therefore, social media was mostly irrelevant as a primary driver.
Sources (4)
- 1To amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 through April 30, 2026, and for other purposes. (H.R. 8322) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2H.R. 8322 (ENR) - An Act To amend the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 to extend the authorities of title VII of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978 through April 30, 2026, and for other purposes. - BILLS-119hr8322enr | Content Details | GovInfogovinfo.gov
- 3US HR8322 | BillTrack50billtrack50.com
- 4investornews.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "White House ballroom funding" market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if legislation authorizing funding for a presidential ballroom becomes law between the market's issuance and January 1, 2027, requiring presidential signature or veto override. An expired presidential pocket veto results in a "No" resolution. The market opened on April 28, 2026, and closes early upon the event's occurrence or by January 1, 2027, with payouts within 30 minutes, based on verification from the Library of Congress.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | $0.80 | $0.25 | 76% |
| ROTOR Act | $0.72 | $0.33 | 67% |
| DEFIANCE Act | $0.64 | $0.40 | 61% |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | $0.62 | $0.44 | 61% |
| White House ballroom funding | $0.47 | $0.60 | 46% |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | $0.39 | $0.65 | 39% |
| Export-control chip security | $0.36 | $0.69 | 36% |
| AI-chip export licensing | $0.25 | $0.78 | 25% |
| SHOWER Act | $0.24 | $0.81 | 23% |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | $0.23 | $0.83 | 22% |
| Data center utility cost protection | $0.21 | $0.84 | 21% |
| Film/TV production expensing | $0.21 | $0.81 | 19% |
| SELF DRIVE Act | $0.20 | $0.81 | 19% |
| $2.50 Coin | $0.17 | $0.87 | 17% |
| Credit-card routing competition | $0.14 | $0.90 | 15% |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Trump Airport | $0.15 | $0.89 | 10% |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | $0.09 | $0.95 | 9% |
Market Discussion
The discussion indicates strong trader confidence in the "Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act" becoming law, with one participant labeling it "free money." Key arguments revolve around market rules, specifically clarifying that bills do not need to pass as standalone legislation but can be included within broader bills. A notable point of inquiry is whether a general "Hot Foods Act" would fulfill the conditions for the more specific "Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act" market.
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good
Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score40High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 3012% of the price to slippage.
Trust score70Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How will the 119th Congress's legislative calendar, particularly the pre-election session and lame-duck period, affect prospects for non-essential bills in late 2026?
| Senate October Recess | Oct 5–Nov 6, 2026 [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Expected End of Session | Around Dec 17–18, 2026 [1][2][3] |
| Final Bill Deadline | Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [4][5] |
Late 2026 presents a narrow window for non-essential legislation. The U.S. legislative calendar for late 2026 will significantly constrain the period available for non-essential bills to become law [1][2][3][4][5]. Key dates include the Senate's scheduled October recess, running from October 5 to November 6, 2026, and the expected conclusion of the 119th Congress's second session around December 17–18, 2026 [1][2][3]. Consequently, bills not close to completion by early to mid-October will likely struggle to pass before the ultimate deadline of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET [4][5].
Congress will prioritize essential legislation during the constrained lame-duck period. During this limited timeframe, particularly the lame-duck phase, Congress's focus will be heavily diverted toward critical, must-pass items [6][2][7][8][9]. A primary concern is the completion of fiscal year 2026 spending, with leaders emphasizing the urgency to prevent another government shutdown, despite ongoing disagreements among appropriators regarding top lines and riders [6][2]. This dedicated attention to appropriations, defense policy, and other essential year-end matters will reduce the available bandwidth and attention for standalone, non-essential legislation [6][2][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1U.S. Senate: Tentative 2026 Legislative Schedulesenate.gov
- 2Capital Snapshot: 2nd Session Of The 119th Congress - Constitutional & Administrative Law - Worldwidemondaq.com
- 3U.S. Senate: Dates of Sessions of the Congresssenate.gov
- 4Which bills will become law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Which bills will become law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 6Spending, permitting, highway bill: Congress’ 2026 to-do list - E&E News by POLITICOeenews.net
- 7What Congress must get done during the lame duck - E&E News by POLITICOeenews.net
- 8Lawmakers face jam-packed agenda after elections with government funding and debt limit on the horizoncnn.com
- 9116th Congress did not pass many laws until after 2020 election | Pew Research Centerpewresearch.org
7. What evidence suggests the critical-minerals stockpile provisions could be attached to a must-pass legislative vehicle like the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)?
| FY2026 NDAA Stockpile Inclusion | National Defense Stockpile Subtitle B, Sections 1411-1412 (signed Dec 18, 2025) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| FY2027 National Defense Stockpile Budget Request | Over $18.005B (FY2027) [3][4] |
| National Defense Stockpile Coverage | 6.2% of wartime shortfalls, representing a $14.83B gap (early 2020s) [5] |
The FY2027 NDAA could include critical minerals provisions, based on precedent. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed on December 18, 2025, notably incorporated specific National Defense Stockpile subtitles, including Subtitle B, Sections 1411-1412 [1][2]. This legislative interest is further supported by a substantial FY2027 budget request exceeding $18.005 billion for the National Defense Stockpile, aimed at reducing foreign dependence [3][4].
Significant shortfalls and active legislation underscore the need for critical mineral provisions. The National Defense Stockpile only covered 6.2% of wartime shortfalls in the early 2020s, representing a critical $14.83 billion gap [5]. Complementing this, legislative efforts demonstrate robust interest; H.R.3617, known as the "Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act," passed the House on February 11, 2026, and is currently pending action in the Senate [6][7].
The upcoming NDAA legislative cycle presents a timely integration opportunity for these provisions. As of May 8, 2026, the FY2027 NDAA has not yet been introduced, but its legislative process traditionally begins in the middle of the year [8]. This timeline offers a clear window for critical-minerals stockpile provisions to be thoroughly considered and potentially integrated into the forthcoming defense authorization act.
Sources (8)
- 1https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/rcp_text_of_house_amendment_to_s._1071.pdfarmedservices.house.gov
- 2NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026govinfo.gov
- 3FY 2027 President's Budget: Key takeaways related to mining...dlapiper.com
- 4Critical Minerals Take Center Stage in Trump’s FY27 Budget Request | Brownsteinbhfs.com
- 5The Rise and Fall of the US Strategic Mineral Stockpile | Geopolitical Monitorgeopoliticalmonitor.com
- 6Text - H.R.3617 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 7https://www.govinfo.gov/link/bills/119/hr/3617?link-type=pdfgovinfo.gov
- 8FY2026 NDAA: Status of Legislative Activity - EveryCRSReport.comeverycrsreport.com
8. How does the level of bipartisan support in the House and Senate compare between the proposed AI-chip export licensing bill and the credit-card routing competition bill?
| CCCA Senate Leadership | Senator Dick Durbin (D) and Senator Roger Marshall (R) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| CCCA House Leadership | Representative Lance Gooden (R) and Representative Zoe Lofgren (D) [1][2][4] |
| AI-chip Bill 1473 Sponsors | Senators Mike Rounds (R) and Mark Warner (D) [5] |
The Credit Card Competition Act demonstrates strong bipartisan support across both chambers. This legislation showcases explicit bipartisan leadership in both the House and Senate. In the Senate, the bill is championed by Senator Dick Durbin (D) and Senator Roger Marshall (R) [1][2][3]. In the House, Representative Lance Gooden (R) and Representative Zoe Lofgren (D) are leading the legislation [1][2][4]. The bipartisan appeal of the Credit Card Competition Act was further highlighted by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump in January 2026 [1][2][4].
Several AI-chip export licensing bills also exhibit bipartisan sponsorship. Multiple proposed AI-chip export licensing bills similarly demonstrate bipartisan support, primarily within the Senate. For instance, the MATCH Act was introduced in April 2026 by Representative Bill Huizenga (R), Senator Pete Ricketts (R), and Senator Andy Kim (D) [6]. Bill 1473 was another such instance, introduced by Senators Mike Rounds (R) and Mark Warner (D) in April 2025 [5]. Additionally, the Guaranteeing Access and Innovation for National Artificial Intelligence Act (GAIN AI Act) was put forth by a bipartisan group of senators, including Jim Banks (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D), in November 2025 [7].
The Credit Card Competition Act shows broader bipartisan support across Congress. While AI-chip legislation features bipartisan sponsorship among senators and includes one Republican representative for the MATCH Act, the Credit Card Competition Act provides more comprehensive details regarding its bipartisan leadership spanning both congressional chambers [6][5][7][1][2][3][4].
9. Which public data sources provide the most reliable real-time tracking of a bill's progress from committee to law in the 119th Congress?
| GovInfo BILLSTATUS XML update frequency | ~4 hours [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| GovTrack bill status appearance | Next business day [4] |
| Authoritative became law confirmation | Congress.gov public laws by Congress (after NARA assigns PL number) [5] |
For reliable real-time tracking of a bill's progress from committee to law in the 119th Congress, the most effective public data sources are Congress.gov’s bill API and GovInfo BILLSTATUS XML bulk data. The Congress.gov bill API offers real-time tracking through its `latestAction` and `updateDateIncludingText/updateDate` fields, which include timestamps for the last update received, enabling programmatic measurement of progress [6][7][8]. For reliable near-real-time committee-to-floor progress at scale, GovInfo's BILLSTATUS XML bulk data is highly effective, updating for the current Congress on approximately a four-hour cadence [1][2][3]. In contrast, GovTrack's "bill status" information is derived from GovInfo.gov's BILLSTATUS bulk data but typically reflects legislative activity on the next business day, positioning it as less immediate than directly accessing the primary sources [4].
Congress.gov public laws is canonical for official enactment into law. To definitively confirm when a public bill or joint resolution has officially become law, Congress.gov's public laws by Congress serves as the authoritative "resolution" list [5]. Bills are incorporated into this list once the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) assigns a Public Law (PL) number, establishing it as the definitive endpoint for verifying a bill's enactment into law for the 119th Congress [5].
Sources (8)
- 1usgpo/bill-statusgithub.com
- 2usgpo/bill-statusgithub.com
- 3Congressional Bill Status in Bulk XML | GovInfogovinfo.gov
- 4GovTrack.us - About Our Datagovtrack.us
- 5Public Laws | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 6Documentation/BillEndpoint.md at main · LibraryOfCongress/api.congress.govgithub.com
- 7Returns detailed information for a specified bill.congress.readme.io
- 8QUESTION: how frequently is the Congress.gov.api updated? · Issue #265 · LibraryOfCongress/api.congress.govgithub.com
10. What potential national security events or shifts in congressional leadership could impact the final passage of the FISA Section 702 reauthorization before the end of 2026?
| Market Resolution Deadline | December 31, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Original Statutory Sunset (RISAA) | April 20, 2026 [3] |
| Current Extended Deadline | Mid-June (June 12) [4] |
National security events could increase pressure for reauthorization. Potential national security events are likely to increase political incentives to avoid a lapse in Section 702 [5]. If Section 702 expires, the FBI anticipates active collection stopping and leads going cold, which could lead to an increase in national security incidents and threats [5]. An FBI investigation into suspicious cyber activity on a critical intelligence network in March 2026 exemplifies the kind of event that could heighten the urgency for uninterrupted intelligence authorities [6].
Congressional consensus challenges hinder long-term Section 702 reauthorization. Shifts in congressional leadership and difficulty in achieving consensus have complicated the reauthorization process. Section 702 initially had a statutory sunset of April 20, 2026, under the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act (RISAA) [3]. Congress passed a second 45-day extension in late April 2026, with a House vote of 261–111 and unanimous Senate consent, after failing to reach agreement on reforms [7][8][9]. While the House passed a three-year reauthorization, the Senate Majority Leader noted it would be difficult in the Senate due to unrelated language, such as a Federal Reserve CBDC ban, pushing lawmakers toward short-term 'clean' paths [10][8][11]. As of early May 2026, this 45-day extension pushed the next negotiation and expiration deadline to mid-June (June 12), indicating that leadership agreement on sequencing and committee progress in May or early June would be crucial for any end-2026 final passage [4]. Members of Congress continue to advocate for substantive Fourth Amendment and data broker reforms, suggesting that reform-oriented members may resist a 'clean' longer-term passage unless leadership allows reform-friendly amendments to be considered [12].
Sources (12)
- 1Which bills will become law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become l… 55% Yes · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
- 3FISA Section 702 and the 2024 Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 4Congress Punts FISA Section 702 Renewal to June - Security Boulevardsecurityboulevard.com
- 5An FBI Perspective on FISA Section 702 – The Cipher Briefthecipherbrief.com
- 6FBI investigating ‘suspicious’ cyber activities on critical surveillance network | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 7Congress extends FISA 702 surveillance program for 45 days: NPRnpr.org
- 8FISA Section 702: Congress passes extension of surveillance programcnbc.com
- 9Congress gets itself together — sort of - Punchbowl Newspunchbowl.news
- 10House passes 3-year FISA reauthorization that will face challenges in the Senate - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 11House passes 3-year FISA 702 extension - Nextgov/FCWnextgov.com
- 12CAPAC, CHC and CPC Chairs Lead 53 Members of Congress in Urging Leadership to Include Fourth Amendment Protections in FISA Reauthorization | Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus (CAPAC)capac.house.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several bills are being monitored for potential enactment by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, requiring passage by both chambers and signing/enactment into law [1]. These include bills like the "Housing for the 21st Century Act" and "Export-control chip security" [1]. Additionally, the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R. 7567) was introduced on Feb. 13, 2026 and reported favorably out of the House Agriculture Committee on March 5, 2026 [2].
Reauthorization of FISA Title VII, specifically Section 702 for two years, is a significant event to watch, with legislation qualifying if it includes Public Law 118-49 and is signed into law by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET [3]. Another key development is the potential enactment of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET [4]. However, Polymarket traders have reportedly adjusted the odds for the Clarity Act's passage in 2026 downward, from 64% on Apr 18 to 43% by the article’s press time on Apr 23, reportedly due to delays in Senate markup scheduling [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (5)
- 1Which bills will become law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2The 2026 Farm Bill (H.R. 7567): Comparison with Current Law - EveryCRSReport.comeverycrsreport.com
- 3Which bills will become law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 4Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Polymarket traders slash Clarity Act passage odds for 2026finbold.com
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several bills are being monitored for potential enactment by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, requiring passage by both chambers and signing/enactment into law [1].
- Trigger: These include bills like the "Housing for the 21st Century Act" and "Export-control chip security" [1].
- Trigger: Additionally, the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 (H.R.
- Trigger: 7567) was introduced on Feb.
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBILLS-FISAANY: YES (Apr 18, 2026)
