Trump Truth Social posts this week? (4/26-5/2)
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: 80-99 posts at 28.5% model vs 18.0% market, suggesting the market underestimates Donald Trump's consistent historical posting volume on Truth Social.
1. Executive Verdict
- May 1st rally is a key driver for high weekly post volume.
- Trump maintains a consistent, high volume of Truth Social posts daily.
- Gag order influences post content, not the overall posting volume.
- Court appearances generally reduce daily posts, except during rallies.
- Weekdays typically see significantly more Truth Social posts than weekends.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| >220 | 4.0% | 4.0% | A May 1st rally and exceptionally high daily engagement could drive posts above this. |
| 200-220 | 5.0% | 5.0% | A major rally and very active daily posting could lead to this elevated weekly total. |
| <80 | 11.0% | 11.5% | Unusually low daily posting activity or minimal public engagement would result in fewer posts. |
| 100-119 | 21.0% | 13.0% | Consistent daily posting and the May 1st rally suggest activity within this moderate range. |
| 120-139 | 18.0% | 12.0% | Regular posting, including a rally on May 1st, points to activity within this range. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market opened on April 26 with a low probability of 3.0% for a "YES" outcome. The price remained static on zero volume for the first day before experiencing a significant upward surge. On April 27, the probability jumped sharply from 3.0% to a peak of 12.0%. Since hitting this high, the price has seen a minor pullback, settling at its current level of 11.0%. Despite this small dip, the overall trend for the market is clearly upward since its inception.
The price spike on the second day was validated by a substantial increase in trading activity, with 250 contracts changing hands. This volume surge coinciding with the price jump suggests strong conviction among traders buying into the "YES" position. Since then, trading volume has subsided, indicating a potential consolidation phase as the market digests the recent move. The chart has established a clear support level at the market's opening price of 3.0% and a new resistance level at the recent peak of 12.0%.
The market sentiment has undergone a rapid and decisive shift. Initially, traders priced the outcome as highly unlikely. The surge to 12% on significant volume indicates a fundamental re-evaluation of the event's probability. While the specific catalyst for this abrupt change in sentiment on April 27 is not provided, the price action shows that the market has repriced the odds from roughly 1-in-33 to approximately 1-in-9, and has largely sustained that new valuation.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 80-99
📈 April 27, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 19.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: 140-159
📈 April 26, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 17.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump posts between 100 and 119 times on Truth Social from April 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, to May 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market closes on May 3, 2026, at 9:59 AM EDT, and the post count, including Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths (plus replies if captured by Roll Call), is recorded at 10:00 AM ET on May 3, 2026. Resolution is primarily based on Roll Call data, excluding deleted posts, with projected payout on July 31, 2026, and alternative sources usable at the platform's discretion if primary data is unavailable or inaccurate.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100-119 | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| 120-139 | $0.18 | $0.84 | 18% |
| 80-99 | $0.19 | $0.82 | 18% |
| 140-159 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| 160-179 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| <80 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| 180-199 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 6% |
| 200-220 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| >220 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is Trump's Expected Court Schedule and Social Media Activity in 2026?
| Expected 2026 Court Days | April 28, 29, May 1, 2 (2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Average Posts on Court Days (April 2024) | Approximately 5.8 posts daily [^] |
| Average Posts on Non-Court Days (April 2024) | Approximately 18 posts daily [^] |
The precise court schedule for April 26-May 2, 2026, is not definitively established in the provided sources. However, based on the established pattern during the 2024 trial, court proceedings for the Manhattan District Attorney's case against Donald Trump are typically held four days a week: Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Wednesdays and weekends generally serve as non-court days [^]. Following this pattern, court would likely be in session on Monday, April 28; Tuesday, April 29; Thursday, May 1; and Friday, May 2, 2026. Conversely, Saturday, April 26; Sunday, April 27; and Wednesday, April 30, 2026, would predictably be non-court days.
Donald Trump's post volume varied significantly between court and non-court days during the first full week of the trial's testimony. Analysis of his Truth Social activity from April 22-26, 2024, which marked the beginning of opening statements and testimony, revealed a notable difference [^]. Court was in session on April 22, 23, 25, and 26, 2024, with April 24, 2024, designated as a non-court day [^]. On court days, Trump posted an average of approximately 5.8 times per day. In contrast, his activity on the non-court day, April 24, increased substantially, averaging about 18 posts [^].
6. What are Donald Trump's Key Engagements April 26 - May 2, 2026?
| White House Correspondents' Dinner | April 26, 2026 (Washington, D.C.) [^] |
|---|---|
| Rally Location | Kravis Center, West Palm Beach, Florida (May 1, 2026) [^] |
| Truth Social Post Increase on Rally Days | 86% average increase in 2024 (46 posts vs. 24.7) [^] |
Donald Trump has two public campaign events scheduled from April 26 to May 2, 2026. His official public schedule indicates he will attend the White House Correspondents' Dinner in Washington, D.C., on Friday, April 26, 2026 [^]. Subsequently, a rally is planned for Wednesday, May 1, 2026, at the Kravis Center in West Palm Beach, Florida [^]. No additional public campaign events or rallies are currently listed for the dates between April 26 and May 1, nor for May 2, 2026 [^].
Trump's Truth Social post volume significantly increases on rally days. An analysis of his activity on Truth Social throughout 2024 reveals a substantial rise in his daily post volume during days featuring rallies. On these rally days, his average post count reached 46 posts, marking an 86% increase compared to his average of 24.7 posts on weekdays without rallies or court appearances [^].
7. What is the status of Donald Trump's gag order contempt ruling?
| Contempt Motion Filed | April 15, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| Contempt Hearing Date | April 23, 2024 [^] |
| Status as of April 25 | No new contempt findings or sanctions [^] |
Judge Juan Merchan's gag order was actively litigated in late April. As of April 25, 2024, the gag order imposed by Judge Juan Merchan was actively being litigated. Prosecutors filed a motion on April 15, 2024, seeking to hold Donald Trump in contempt for alleged violations, specifically citing various posts and statements they claimed breached the order [^].
A hearing on alleged gag order violations occurred on April 23. This hearing addressed the prosecutors' motion concerning the alleged gag order breaches. During the proceedings, Judge Merchan reportedly admonished Donald Trump's legal team, stating that they were "losing all credibility" [^].
No formal ruling on contempt was issued by April 25. Despite the hearing and the judge's comments, Judge Merchan had not yet issued any new formal warnings, sanctions, or a ruling on the contempt motion as of April 25. However, a decision regarding holding Trump in contempt and imposing a fine for multiple violations was anticipated shortly after that date, specifically on April 30, 2024 [^].
8. Are Cohen, Daniels, or Hutchinson Scheduled for High-Profile Appearances?
| Stormy Daniels General Tours | General adult event and tour dates listed for 2026 and 2027 [^] |
|---|---|
| Michael Cohen Media Deal | Signed a major deal with Team Wave Entertainment [^] |
| Face the Nation April 26, 2026 | No named figures indicated as scheduled guests [^] |
No specific high-profile events are scheduled for the target week. There are no explicitly scheduled or confirmed high-profile media appearances, interviews, or book releases for Michael Cohen, Stormy Daniels, or Cassidy Hutchinson during the week of April 26 - May 2, 2026. While some general future plans have been reported for Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen, no events fall within the specified timeframe according to available information.
Stormy Daniels has general tour dates, but none are specific to the target week. She has general adult event and tour dates listed for 2026 and 2027 [^]. One specific event, "Chandler Mic Drop Mania," is scheduled for March 10, 2026, which falls outside the designated week [^]. Reports discussing her appearance and life a decade after the Trump hush-money scandal do not detail specific future high-profile media engagements for April 26 - May 2, 2026 [^].
Michael Cohen signed a media deal, yet no specific events are scheduled for the week. Michael Cohen recently signed a major deal with Team Wave Entertainment, an independent political media company, described as ushering in a new era for him in political media [^]. However, available information does not specify any high-profile media appearances, interviews, or book releases scheduled for him during the week of April 26 - May 2, 2026, resulting from this deal. No information regarding Cassidy Hutchinson's activities for the specified week is present in the provided sources. While a transcript for "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" exists for April 26, 2026, the sources do not indicate that any of the named figures were scheduled guests for that program [^].
9. Does Donald Trump Post More on Weekdays Than Weekends?
| Average Weekday Posts | 11.66 posts per day [^] |
|---|---|
| Average Weekend Posts | 3.85 posts per day [^] |
| Weekday vs Weekend Post Ratio | Approximately 3 times higher [^] |
Donald Trump posts significantly more on weekdays than weekends. Although specific data for the four weeks prior to April 26, 2026, is not yet available, historical patterns consistently show higher activity during the week [^], [^], [^]. Historical trends indicate an average of approximately 11.7 posts per weekday, contrasting with about 3.9 posts per weekend day [^].
Midweek typically sees Donald Trump's highest posting volumes. Analysis of historical data, particularly from trumpstruth.org/stats, reveals a consistent statistical breakdown of his average post volume by day [^]. His highest post volumes are often observed on Tuesdays, with approximately 12.8 posts, and Thursdays, averaging about 14.1 posts. The average weekday output is approximately 11.66 posts per day, which is significantly higher than the average weekend output of about 3.85 posts per day [^]. This clear differential means his weekday posting volume is approximately three times higher than his weekend volume, a pattern consistently observed across various periods of his activity [^], [^], [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 31, 2026
- Closes: May 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR25-T80: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR25-T220: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR25-B89: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR25-B210: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26APR25-B189: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
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