Yes
Market Model 16.0% 10.5%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (55)
Paramount
Market Model 80.0% 80.1%
Netflix
Market Model 4.0% 3.3%
Spirit Airlines
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Anduril
Market Model 30.0% 17.8%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 30.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 11.2%
Above 150 million
Market Model 39.0% 41.3%
Above 149 million
Market Model 61.0% 62.0%
Yes
Market Model 74.0% 74.0%
Above 1000
Market Model 60.0% 37.5%
Above 5000
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Above 440000
Market Model 39.0% 26.0%
Above 420000
Market Model 63.0% 38.4%
Yes
Market Model 79.0% 79.0%
Yes
Market Model 33.0% 17.5%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 85.4%
Above 160
Market Model 34.0% 32.9%
Above 170
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Before July
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 96.0% 99.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 29.0% 28.4%
Before October
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
At least $900
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
At least $800
Market Model 56.0% 53.3%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 13.0% 22.1%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 21.3%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 27.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 1.9%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 12.8%
Above 6.9 million
Market Model 83.0% 84.2%
Above 6.6 million
Market Model 93.0% 93.5%
Elon Musk
Market Model 15.0% 50.2%
Nikita Bier
Market Model 12.0% 11.4%
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Rafael Grossi
Market Model 56.0% 56.9%
Michelle Bachelet
Market Model 11.0% 8.9%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 8.1%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 1.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 1.0%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 3.0% 2.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 18.0% 42.7%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 4.6%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 11.1%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 41.0% 28.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 9.0% 6.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 19.2%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 30.0% 25.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 4.0% 5.9%
Before Oct 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 20.0% 11.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 5.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 14.0% 9.4%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 18.0% 12.1%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 19.1%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 13.0% 13.4%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 16.0% 16.8%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 4.0% 14.1%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 31.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 4.0% 31.2%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 35.3%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 10.6%
At least $100
Market Model 83.0% 70.0%
At least $1400
Market Model 71.0% 54.2%
Marianne Lake
Market Model 49.0% 24.5%
Troy Rohrbaugh
Market Model 23.0% 7.4%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 19.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 21.7%
Citigroup
Market Model 37.0% 29.0%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 34.0% 29.0%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 12.0% 7.9%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 5.0% 5.9%
Disney
Market Model 8.0% 1.9%
Netflix
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 11.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 5.0% 9.0%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
Before July
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 16.0% | 10.5% | Med | $296,490.52 | Refresh |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 80.0% | 80.1% | High | $3,292,952.85 | Refresh |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? Top outcome: Spirit Airlines | 11.0% | 4.6% | Med | $613,370.28 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel this year? Yes refers to: a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | $25,850.83 | Refresh |
| Will xAI release a video game before 2027? Yes refers to: Video Game | 40.0% | 30.5% | Med | $17,327.41 | Refresh |
| Will Dodge release a new Challenger Hellcat before 2027? Yes refers to: Dodge Challenger Hellcat | 17.0% | 11.2% | Med | $11,853.42 | Refresh |
| Costco total cardholders in Q3 Top outcome: Above 150 million | 39.0% | 41.3% | High | $11,275.76 | Refresh |
| Will SpaceX acquire Cursor this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 74.0% | 74.0% | Med | $14,222.51 | Refresh |
| How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026? Top outcome: Above 1000 | 60.0% | 37.5% | High | $100,550.12 | Refresh |
| Tesla production in Q2 Top outcome: Above 440000 | 39.0% | 26.0% | High | $98,089.91 | Refresh |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 79.0% | 79.0% | Med | $62,853 | Refresh |
| Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? Yes refers to: Hires | 33.0% | 17.5% | Med | $63,484.97 | Refresh |
| Will BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028? Yes refers to: Fully Electric M3 | 81.0% | 85.4% | Med | $15,192 | Refresh |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 34.0% | 32.9% | High | $187,477.89 | Refresh |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before July | 3.0% | 1.0% | High | $395,503.58 | Refresh |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 29.0% | 28.4% | Med | $345,941.03 | Refresh |
| X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | $9,927.11 | Refresh |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 30.0% | 32.7% | High | $124,117.08 | Refresh |
| New Xbox this year? Yes refers to: a new Xbox video game console | 16.0% | 7.6% | Med | $10,264.71 | Refresh |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 13.0% | 22.1% | High | $169,138.68 | Refresh |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 27.0% | Med | $275,311.38 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium this year? Yes refers to: a new reference in titanium | 3.0% | 1.9% | Med | $5,900.31 | Refresh |
| Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year? Yes refers to: a steel Nautilus reference | 10.0% | 12.8% | Med | $7,324.31 | Refresh |
| Vail Resorts skier visits in Q3 Top outcome: Above 6.9 million | 83.0% | 84.2% | High | $1,741.99 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next CEO of X? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 15.0% | 50.2% | High | $46,737.23 | Refresh |
| Will Bethesda release a new Fallout game before July? Yes refers to: A new Fallout video game (standalone title; excludes DLCs, expansions, remasters, re-releases, and mobile-only titles) | 5.0% | 2.2% | Med | $60,580.21 | Refresh |
| Will Sony Pictures Animation release 'KPop Demon Hunters 2" before 2027? Yes refers to: KPop Demon Hunters 2 | 8.0% | 8.0% | Med | $56,438.32 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? Top outcome: Rafael Grossi | 56.0% | 56.9% | High | $21,917.8 | Refresh |
| When will Airtable officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 17.0% | 9.9% | High | $2,413.19 | Refresh |
| When will Brex officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 1.0% | High | $7,271 | Refresh |
| When will Cluely officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 2.5% | High | $4,459.76 | Refresh |
| When will Deel officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 42.7% | High | $14,746.74 | Refresh |
| When will Olipop officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 4.6% | High | $3,817.03 | Refresh |
| When will Oura officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 41.0% | 28.6% | High | $1,473.1 | Refresh |
| When will Rippling officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 19.2% | High | $2,788 | Refresh |
| When will Whoop officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | 5.9% | High | $5,054 | Refresh |
| When will Stripe officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 20.0% | 11.7% | High | $23,343.84 | Refresh |
| When will Glean officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 14.0% | 9.4% | High | $1,070 | Refresh |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 19.0% | 19.1% | High | $96,318.46 | Refresh |
| When will AppsFlyer officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 16.0% | 16.8% | High | $855.26 | Refresh |
| When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 31.2% | High | $33,590.63 | Refresh |
| Courts consider Apple a monopoly? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 30.0% | 35.3% | Med | $49,624.17 | Refresh |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 15.0% | 10.6% | Med | $37,942.3 | Refresh |
| How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? Top outcome: At least $100 | 83.0% | 70.0% | High | $3,046.81 | Refresh |
| Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO? Top outcome: Marianne Lake | 49.0% | 24.5% | Med | $13,795.67 | Refresh |
| When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 17.0% | 19.6% | High | $25,527 | Refresh |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Citigroup | 37.0% | 29.0% | High | $79,352 | Refresh |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 12.0% | 7.9% | High | $67,236 | Refresh |
| 8.0% | 1.9% | Med | $70,080 | Refresh | |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | $80,724 | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | $26,492 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | Refresh |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 11.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,300 | Refresh |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | Refresh |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $12,539 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (28)
Yes
Market Model — —
Citigroup
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Bank of America
Market Model 94.0% 90.0%
Above 2.6 million
Market Model 27.0% 10.2%
Above 2.65 million
Market Model 17.0% 6.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 460
Market Model 20.0% 35.4%
Above 465
Market Model 2.0% 21.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 80 million
Market Model 34.0% 29.5%
above 78 million
Market Model 81.0% 60.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
Before July
Market Model 94.0% 94.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
above 3.8 billion
Market Model 13.0% 12.9%
Above 4.2 billion
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 78000
Market Model 10.0% 7.8%
Above 77000
Market Model 43.0% 33.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $180,514.85 | ||
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 94.0% | 92.1% | Med | $820,815.43 | |
| Hims subscribers in Q1 Top outcome: Above 2.6 million | 27.0% | 10.2% | High | $8,000.52 | |
| — | — | High | $1,563,985.15 | ||
| — | — | High | $232,693.79 | ||
| CAVA restaurants in Q1 Top outcome: Above 460 | 20.0% | 35.4% | High | $81,959.06 | |
| — | — | High | $131,495.46 | ||
| — | — | High | $62,787.58 | ||
| Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 Top outcome: Above 80 million | 34.0% | 29.5% | High | $1,872.61 | |
| — | — | High | $3,497.47 | ||
| One-time layoff greater than Block (4,000 employees) in tech? Top outcome: Before July | 94.0% | 94.0% | High | $58,101.5 | |
| — | — | High | $11,116.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $190,568.93 | ||
| — | — | Med | $150,467.8 | ||
| — | — | High | $10,293.74 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,122.96 | ||
| Uber Trips in Q1? Top outcome: above 3.8 billion | 13.0% | 12.9% | High | $342,473.47 | |
| — | — | High | $23,804.66 | ||
| — | — | High | $225,903.97 | ||
| Meta headcount in Q1? Top outcome: Above 78000 | 10.0% | 7.8% | High | $500,553.82 | |
| — | — | High | $146,188.21 | ||
| — | — | High | $103,599 | ||
| — | — | Med | $546,589 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,106,410 | ||
| — | — | High | $55,833 | ||
| — | — | Med | $736,763 | ||
| — | — | Med | $67,904 | ||
| — | — | Med | $357,769 |
