Above 186 million
Market Model 56.0% 51.6%
Above 180 million
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (49)
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 10.0% 9.0%
Above 1.65 million
Market Model 81.0% 72.3%
Above 130000
Market Model 84.0% 81.9%
Above 140000
Market Model 39.0% 41.1%
Above 1.75 million
Market Model 53.0% 28.6%
Above 1.9 million
Market Model 12.0% 8.1%
Above 316 million
Market Model 42.0% 27.0%
Above 328 million
Market Model 12.0% 5.5%
Above 800 million
Market Model 91.0% 91.0%
Above 810 million
Market Model 83.0% 84.0%
Above 7300
Market Model 31.0% 3.6%
Above 7450
Market Model 10.0% 3.3%
Above 41800
Market Model 9.0% 2.0%
Above 42000
Market Model 7.0% 1.0%
Above 4%
Market Model 59.0% 69.4%
Above 3%
Market Model 82.0% 83.0%
Above 54.5 billion
Market Model 96.0% 62.3%
Above 61 billion
Market Model 6.0% 2.1%
Above 65000
Market Model 93.0% 85.7%
Above 77000
Market Model 20.0% 8.0%
Above 3.68 billion
Market Model 74.0% 91.9%
Above 3.72 billion
Market Model 56.0% 53.3%
Above 227 million
Market Model 63.0% 65.0%
Above 229 million
Market Model 33.0% 35.0%
Above 62 million
Market Model 6.0% 4.2%
Above 60 million
Market Model 12.0% 8.5%
Above 2.15 million
Market Model 20.0% 17.6%
Above 2 million
Market Model 59.0% 56.2%
Above $92 billion
Market Model 14.0% 9.7%
Above $91 billion
Market Model 17.0% 16.4%
Above 900 thousand
Market Model 3.0% 2.7%
Above 910 thousand
Market Model 10.0% 2.7%
Above 4320
Market Model 97.0% 98.8%
Above 4300
Market Model 96.0% 98.8%
Above 97.3 million
Market Model 84.0% 68.3%
Above 97.1 million
Market Model 93.0% 86.2%
Above 620
Market Model 85.0% 78.0%
Above 560
Market Model 91.0% 84.3%
Above 30.2 million
Market Model 66.0% 87.6%
Above 28.2 million
Market Model 97.0% 98.6%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Yes
Market Model 40.0% 30.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 11.2%
Yes
Market Model 74.0% 74.0%
Yes
Market Model 79.0% 79.0%
Yes
Market Model 33.0% 17.5%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 85.4%
Before 2027
Market Model 29.0% 28.4%
Before October
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Yes
Market Model 11.0% 7.1%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 27.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 1.9%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 12.8%
Elon Musk
Market Model 15.0% 50.2%
Nikita Bier
Market Model 12.0% 11.4%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
Rafael Grossi
Market Model 56.0% 56.9%
Michelle Bachelet
Market Model 11.0% 8.9%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 41.0% 28.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 9.0% 6.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 35.3%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 10.6%
At least $100
Market Model 83.0% 70.0%
At least $1400
Market Model 71.0% 54.2%
Marianne Lake
Market Model 49.0% 24.5%
Troy Rohrbaugh
Market Model 23.0% 7.4%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 21.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 28.0% 30.8%
Disney
Market Model 8.0% 1.9%
Netflix
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines passengers flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 186 million | 56.0% | 51.6% | High | $22,372.59 | Refresh |
| Tesla total production in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.9 million | 10.0% | 9.0% | High | $9,798.38 | Refresh |
| Tesla headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 130000 | 84.0% | 81.9% | High | $12,546.06 | Refresh |
| Tesla total deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 1.75 million | 53.0% | 28.6% | High | $53,088.79 | Refresh |
| Spotify premium subscribers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 316 million | 42.0% | 27.0% | High | $9,954.41 | Refresh |
| Spotify total monthly active users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 800 million | 91.0% | 91.0% | High | $16,784.05 | Refresh |
| Spotify headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 7300 | 31.0% | 3.6% | High | $16.38 | Refresh |
| Starbucks total global stores in 2026 Top outcome: Above 41800 | 9.0% | 2.0% | High | $84,340.93 | Refresh |
| Starbucks comparable transactions growth in 2026 Top outcome: Above 4% | 59.0% | 69.4% | High | $566.06 | Refresh |
| Altria domestic cigarette shipments in 2026 Top outcome: Above 54.5 billion | 96.0% | 62.3% | High | $42,201.31 | Refresh |
| Meta headcount in 2026 Top outcome: Above 65000 | 93.0% | 85.7% | High | $46,085.8 | Refresh |
| Meta family daily active people in 2026 Top outcome: Above 3.68 billion | 74.0% | 91.9% | High | $4,202 | Refresh |
| Southwest Airlines seats flown in 2026 Top outcome: Above 227 million | 63.0% | 65.0% | High | $2,790.77 | Refresh |
| Grab monthly transacting users in 2026 Top outcome: Above 62 million | 6.0% | 4.2% | High | $23,895.49 | Refresh |
| Ford US vehicle sales volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above 2.15 million | 20.0% | 17.6% | High | $27,634.31 | Refresh |
| eBay gross merchandise volume in 2026 Top outcome: Above $92 billion | 14.0% | 9.7% | High | $48,053.59 | Refresh |
| Carvana retail vehicle unit sales in 2026 Top outcome: Above 900 thousand | 3.0% | 2.7% | High | $8,730.72 | Refresh |
| Chipotle total restaurant count in 2026 Top outcome: Above 4320 | 97.0% | 98.8% | High | $14,828.17 | Refresh |
| Carnival Cruise available lower berth days in 2026 Top outcome: Above 97.3 million | 84.0% | 68.3% | High | $38,320.75 | Refresh |
| Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026 Top outcome: Above 620 | 85.0% | 78.0% | High | $35,885.39 | Refresh |
| Robinhood funded customers in 2026 Top outcome: Above 30.2 million | 66.0% | 87.6% | High | $103,288.94 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel this year? Yes refers to: a steel GMT-Master II with a black and red Bezel | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | $25,850.83 | Refresh |
| Will xAI release a video game before 2027? Yes refers to: Video Game | 40.0% | 30.5% | Med | $17,327.41 | Refresh |
| Will Dodge release a new Challenger Hellcat before 2027? Yes refers to: Dodge Challenger Hellcat | 17.0% | 11.2% | Med | $11,853.42 | Refresh |
| Will SpaceX acquire Cursor this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 74.0% | 74.0% | Med | $14,222.51 | Refresh |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 79.0% | 79.0% | Med | $62,853 | Refresh |
| Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? Yes refers to: Hires | 33.0% | 17.5% | Med | $63,484.97 | Refresh |
| Will BMW release a Fully Electric M3 before 2028? Yes refers to: Fully Electric M3 | 81.0% | 85.4% | Med | $15,192 | Refresh |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 29.0% | 28.4% | Med | $345,941.03 | Refresh |
| X re-launches Vine this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 11.0% | 7.1% | Med | $9,927.11 | Refresh |
| New Xbox this year? Yes refers to: a new Xbox video game console | 16.0% | 7.6% | Med | $10,264.71 | Refresh |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 27.0% | Med | $275,311.38 | Refresh |
| Will Rolex release a new reference in titanium this year? Yes refers to: a new reference in titanium | 3.0% | 1.9% | Med | $5,900.31 | Refresh |
| Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year? Yes refers to: a steel Nautilus reference | 10.0% | 12.8% | Med | $7,324.31 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next CEO of X? Top outcome: Elon Musk | 15.0% | 50.2% | High | $46,737.23 | Refresh |
| Will Sony Pictures Animation release 'KPop Demon Hunters 2" before 2027? Yes refers to: KPop Demon Hunters 2 | 8.0% | 8.0% | Med | $56,438.32 | Refresh |
| Who will be the next UN Secretary-General? Top outcome: Rafael Grossi | 56.0% | 56.9% | High | $21,917.8 | Refresh |
| When will Oura officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 41.0% | 28.6% | High | $1,473.1 | Refresh |
| Courts consider Apple a monopoly? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 30.0% | 35.3% | Med | $49,624.17 | Refresh |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 15.0% | 10.6% | Med | $37,942.3 | Refresh |
| How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? Top outcome: At least $100 | 83.0% | 70.0% | High | $3,046.81 | Refresh |
| Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO? Top outcome: Marianne Lake | 49.0% | 24.5% | Med | $13,795.67 | Refresh |
| When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026 | 19.0% | 21.7% | High | $25,527 | Refresh |
| 8.0% | 1.9% | Med | $70,080 | Refresh | |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | $80,724 | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | $26,492 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | Refresh |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | Refresh |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 26.6% | Med | $12,539 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (30)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Citigroup
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Bank of America
Market Model 94.0% 90.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 80 million
Market Model 34.0% 29.5%
above 78 million
Market Model 81.0% 60.8%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 96.0% 96.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
above 3.8 billion
Market Model 13.0% 12.9%
Above 4.2 billion
Market Model 2.0% 2.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Above 78000
Market Model 10.0% 7.8%
Above 77000
Market Model 43.0% 33.7%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $9,913.74 | ||
| — | — | Med | $180,514.85 | ||
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 94.0% | 92.1% | Med | $820,815.43 | |
| — | — | High | $8,000.52 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,563,985.15 | ||
| — | — | High | $232,693.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $81,959.06 | ||
| — | — | High | $131,495.46 | ||
| — | — | High | $62,787.58 | ||
| Paramount+ global subscribers in Q1 Top outcome: Above 80 million | 34.0% | 29.5% | High | $1,872.61 | |
| — | — | High | $3,497.47 | ||
| One-time layoff greater than Block (4,000 employees) in tech? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 96.0% | 96.0% | High | $58,101.5 | |
| — | — | Med | $60,580.21 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,116.79 | ||
| — | — | High | $190,568.93 | ||
| — | — | Med | $150,467.8 | ||
| — | — | High | $10,293.74 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,122.96 | ||
| Uber Trips in Q1? Top outcome: above 3.8 billion | 13.0% | 12.9% | High | $342,473.47 | |
| — | — | High | $23,804.66 | ||
| — | — | High | $225,903.97 | ||
| Meta headcount in Q1? Top outcome: Above 78000 | 10.0% | 7.8% | High | $500,553.82 | |
| — | — | High | $146,188.21 | ||
| — | — | High | $103,599 | ||
| — | — | Med | $546,589 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,106,410 | ||
| — | — | High | $55,833 | ||
| — | — | Med | $736,763 | ||
| — | — | Med | $67,904 | ||
| — | — | Med | $357,769 |
