Yes
Market Model 30.0% 35.3%
Companies Markets
Active Markets (40)
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 10.6%
At least $100
Market Model 83.0% 70.0%
At least $1400
Market Model 71.0% 54.2%
Marianne Lake
Market Model 49.0% 24.5%
Troy Rohrbaugh
Market Model 23.0% 7.4%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 7.0% 14.8%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 2.0%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 10.0% 7.0%
Paramount
Market Model 83.0% 67.8%
Netflix
Market Model 3.0% 2.0%
Before May 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 1.1%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Market Model 22.0% 16.6%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 25.0% 16.6%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 17.0% 9.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 6.9%
Before Nov 1, 2026
Market Model 52.0% 53.6%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 55.0% 56.4%
above 200 million
Market Model 15.0% 18.7%
above 215 million
Market Model 6.0% 8.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 18.0% 10.7%
Before Feb 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 34.0% 33.3%
Before October
Market Model 30.0% 30.1%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 19.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 21.7%
Above 14
Market Model 4.0% 3.0%
Above 13
Market Model 13.0% 10.2%
Citigroup
Market Model 37.0% 29.0%
Goldman Sachs
Market Model 34.0% 29.0%
Anduril
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Anthropic
Market Model 9.0% 20.1%
Above 500000 in a single quarter
Market Model 12.0% 7.9%
Above 750000 in a single quarter
Market Model 5.0% 5.9%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 20.0% 13.4%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 35.0% 24.0%
Before May
Market Model 83.0% 65.4%
Before June
Market Model 94.0% 85.8%
Disney
Market Model 8.0% 1.9%
Netflix
Market Model 18.0% 8.8%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 14.1%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 5.1%
above 1000
Market Model 45.0% 39.1%
above 5000
Market Model 19.0% 16.8%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 1.1%
Above 160
Market Model 56.0% 56.0%
Above 190
Market Model 28.0% 28.0%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 54.0% 68.0%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 50.0% 65.0%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 21.5%
At least $900
Market Model 29.0% 15.0%
At least $800
Market Model 61.0% 30.0%
Citigroup
Market Model 87.0% 86.5%
Bank of America
Market Model 87.0% 90.0%
Before Jun 30, 2027
Market Model 14.0% 83.0%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 11.0% 79.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 14.0% 16.0%
Meta
Market Model 7.0% 9.0%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 83.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 6.3%
SpaceX
Market Model 92.0% 80.0%
Databricks
Market Model 23.0% 19.0%
Before July
Market Model 5.0% 6.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 26.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 32.0% 20.0%
Before July
Market Model 8.0% 8.0%
above 870 million
Market Model 97.0% 99.5%
above 850 million
Market Model 99.0% 99.5%
Yes
Market Model 18.0% 22.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courts consider Apple a monopoly? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 30.0% | 35.3% | Med | $49,624.17 | Refresh |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 15.0% | 10.6% | Med | $37,942.3 | Refresh |
| How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? Top outcome: At least $100 | 83.0% | 70.0% | High | $3,046.81 | Refresh |
| Who will replace Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO? Top outcome: Marianne Lake | 49.0% | 24.5% | Med | $13,795.67 | Refresh |
| When will Rippling officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.2% | High | $2,784 | Refresh |
| When will Discord officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 3.0% | 2.0% | High | $95,169.28 | Refresh |
| Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers? Top outcome: Paramount | 83.0% | 67.8% | High | $3,104,130.96 | Refresh |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.1% | High | $3,619,462.08 | Refresh |
| When will Beast Industries officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Mar 1, 2027 | 22.0% | 16.6% | High | $6,208 | Refresh |
| When will Airtable officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2028 | 17.0% | 9.9% | High | $2,319 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026 | 52.0% | 53.6% | High | $6,721.09 | Refresh |
| Zyn US shipment volume in Q1 2026 Top outcome: above 200 million | 15.0% | 18.7% | High | $146,188.21 | Refresh |
| When will Anduril officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 10.7% | High | $63,564.17 | Refresh |
| When will Apple release the iPhone 18? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 34.0% | 33.3% | High | $276,239.44 | Refresh |
| When will any company achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 17.0% | 19.6% | High | $25,527 | Refresh |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in April? Top outcome: Above 14 | 4.0% | 3.0% | High | $103,599 | Refresh |
| Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027? Top outcome: Citigroup | 37.0% | 29.0% | High | $79,352 | Refresh |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? Top outcome: Anduril | 20.0% | 20.1% | Med | $292,819 | Refresh |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow this year? Top outcome: Above 500000 in a single quarter | 12.0% | 7.9% | High | $67,236 | Refresh |
| When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? Top outcome: Before Apr 1, 2027 | 20.0% | 13.4% | High | $76,872 | Refresh |
| SpaceX Starship 12th launch? Top outcome: Before May | 83.0% | 65.4% | High | $1,045,254 | Refresh |
| 8.0% | 1.9% | Med | $70,080 | Refresh | |
| Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year? Yes refers to: Hires | 21.0% | 14.1% | Med | $35,324 | Refresh |
| Will Elon purchase Ryanair? Yes refers to: Yes | 8.0% | 5.1% | Med | $80,724 | Refresh |
| How many Semi Trucks will Tesla Produce in a quarter in 2026? Top outcome: above 1000 | 45.0% | 39.1% | High | $61,733 | Refresh |
| Tesla Roadsters delivered this year? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 1.1% | Med | $26,492 | Refresh |
| How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? Top outcome: Above 160 | 56.0% | 56.0% | Med | $90,305 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 68.0% | Med | $116,636 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Reza Pahlavi | 21.0% | 21.5% | Med | $711,678 | Refresh |
| How much will the Steam Machine cost? Top outcome: At least $900 | 29.0% | 15.0% | Med | $96,385 | Refresh |
| Which bank will take SpaceX public? Top outcome: Citigroup | 87.0% | 86.5% | Med | $647,231 | Refresh |
| When will Starlink officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 30, 2027 | 14.0% | 83.0% | Med | $112,820 | Refresh |
| Who will acquire Pinterest this year? Top outcome: OpenAI | 14.0% | 16.0% | Med | $66,300 | Refresh |
| When will Apple announce foldable iPhone? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 80.0% | 83.5% | Med | $20,385 | Refresh |
| Elon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 9.0% | 6.3% | Med | $52,315 | Refresh |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 92.0% | 80.0% | Med | $681,424 | Refresh |
| Jamie Dimon leaves JPMorgan Chase? Top outcome: Before July | 5.0% | 6.5% | Med | $12,539 | Refresh |
| When will Tim Cook leave Apple? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 32.0% | 20.0% | Med | $88,753 | Refresh |
| DoorDash Total Orders in Q4? Top outcome: above 870 million | 97.0% | 99.5% | Med | $67,904 | Refresh |
| Tesla Optimus released this year? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 22.5% | Med | $213,169 | Refresh |
