Which Senators will vote to advance the SAVE America Act?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bill Cassidy to vote to advance the SAVE America Act, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- No specific demands from moderate Republicans publicly known for votes.
- Diverse civil rights groups formally opposed the SAVE America Act.
- McConnell's approach created significant Republican intra-party friction.
- A potential filibuster was widely reported for this legislation.
- Advancing the bill faces very low expectations from analysis.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | 2.7% | 2.0% | The provided research contains no information regarding John Fetterman's stance or past votes on the SAVE America Act, offering no basis to adjust the debiased probability. |
| Markwayne Mullin | 0.9% | 0.7% | The provided research contains no information regarding Senator Markwayne Mullin's position or demands concerning the SAVE America Act, indicating a neutral assessment relative to the low debiased market price. |
| Mitch McConnell | 2.0% | 1.5% | The provided research does not contain any specific information about Mitch McConnell's voting intentions or demands regarding the SAVE America Act, leading to a neutral assessment relative to the debiased anchor. |
| Susan Collins | 2.7% | 2.0% | Susan Collins has historically voted against advancing the SAVE America Act, which supports the current low market probability, while the research provides no information on current concessions that might change her stance. |
| Rand Paul | 2.4% | 1.8% | The provided background research is silent on Rand Paul's specific position or demands regarding the SAVE America Act, thus offering no evidence to shift the probability from the debiased anchor. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market demonstrates a distinct lack of price movement, indicating a stable and pessimistic outlook. The price has remained in a very narrow sideways channel, trading between a low of 0.2% and a high of 2.5% since its inception. Starting at a 1.0% probability, the current price of 0.9% reflects negligible change over the life of the market. There have been no significant price spikes or drops to analyze, as the fluctuations have been minor. Given the absence of specific news or developments related to this act, the small price adjustments appear to be driven by minimal trading activity rather than a reaction to any external catalyst.
The trading volume has been consistently low, with a total of only 540 contracts traded. This light volume suggests a lack of market conviction and limited participant interest. The price level of 1.0% has acted as a primary anchor point, with the market showing no real momentum to move away from this low-probability assessment. The tight range between 0.2% and 2.5% has effectively served as the support and resistance channel, though the lack of significant tests of these boundaries underscores the market's inactivity.
Overall, the chart indicates a strong and stable market consensus that any given Senator is highly unlikely to vote for cloture on the SAVE America Act before the 2026 resolution date. The consistently low probability, coupled with minimal volume and a flat trend, reflects a sentiment of high skepticism. The market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, with traders not expecting any developments that would fundamentally alter this pessimistic outlook in the near term.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell votes for a motion to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to or passage of the SAVE America Act in the Senate before May 1, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome is verified from Congress.gov, and any request by the member to alter a vote after the official announcement will not be considered. The market closes early if the event occurs, or by May 1, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | $0.02 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Susan Collins | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Bill Cassidy | $0.02 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Rand Paul | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Mitch McConnell | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Jeanne Shaheen | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Lisa Murkowski | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Thom Tillis | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Maggie Hassan | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Angus King | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Markwayne Mullin | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The main viewpoint among traders is that the cloture vote for the SAVE America Act is unlikely to occur before the market's May 1st deadline, making a 'Yes' vote improbable for any senator. This timeline concern is the primary argument for the 'No' outcome, alongside specific reports indicating individual senators like Thom Tillis will vote against it. Consequently, the market reflects a strong consensus that the event will not happen, with 'Yes' probabilities for all senators remaining extremely low.
4. What are Senators' Demands for SAVE America Act Votes?
| Senators against advancing SAVE America Act in budget | Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis [^] |
|---|---|
| Senator publicly supporting SAVE America Act | Bill Cassidy [^] |
| Specific demands for 'yes' votes | Not detailed in available research [^] |
No specific demands from moderate Republican senators are publicly known. Based on available web research, there is no information detailing specific amendments or concessions that Senators Collins, Murkowski, Tillis, and Cassidy are currently demanding in private negotiations as a condition for their 'yes' votes to advance the SAVE America Act. The provided sources primarily focus on past actions related to the bill rather than current negotiating positions or specific demands for concessions.
Senators' past votes show divided stances on the SAVE America Act. Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Thom Tillis have previously voted against adding the SAVE America Act to a budget package [^]. This action suggests an opposition to advancing the bill in that specific context rather than an indication of demands for concessions for a 'yes' vote. Conversely, Senator Bill Cassidy has publicly expressed support for the bill, calling on the Senate to pass the SAVE America Act in a floor speech [^].
5. What Groups Opposed SAVE Act; Was Industry Lobbying Found?
| Identified Opponents | Civil rights groups, Americans Abroad, Independent Sector, environmental groups, and nearly 60 bipartisan election officials [^] |
|---|---|
| Industry Lobbying Data | No details on formal lobbying campaigns by specific industry groups found in sources [^]. |
| Ad Buys Targeting Senators | No data on ad buys targeting senators like Cortez Masto, Kelly, or Hassan found in sources [^]. |
Many diverse groups formally opposed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act. This opposition included prominent civil rights organizations like The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights [^], and groups representing Americans living abroad, such as Americans Abroad (ACA) [^] and Americans Abroad Residential Organization (AARO) [^]. The Independent Sector urged Congress to protect nonprofit voter registration drives from the Act's provisions [^]. Additionally, environmental advocacy groups, notably the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), warned the legislation could significantly suppress voter turnout [^], and nearly 60 bipartisan election officials also voiced their opposition [^].
Specific industry lobbying campaigns against the SAVE America Act are not documented. The available research does not detail formal lobbying campaigns by distinct industry groups, including financial services, energy, or technology sectors. Furthermore, there is no information on direct lobbying spending by any industry groups or advocacy organizations specifically targeting the Act. Similarly, data on ad buys aimed at key swing-state Democrats like Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark Kelly, or Maggie Hassan is absent. While one source indicated allegations of the White House misusing taxpayer funds to lobby in favor of the SAVE Act, this pertains to support, not opposition [^]. It is notable that the SAVE America Act ultimately failed in the Senate [^].
6. Did McConnell's SAVE Act Stance Cause Republican Intra-Party Friction?
| McConnell's Role | Key figure in stalling and contributing to the defeat of the SAVE America Act [^]. |
|---|---|
| Vote Against Budget Package | Four Republican senators, including McConnell, voted against adding SAVE America Act [^]. |
| Final Vote Result | 48–50, contributing to the defeat of the SAVE Act [^]. |
Mitch McConnell's approach to the SAVE America Act generated Republican intra-party friction. McConnell and a potential filibuster were widely reported as obstacles to the Trump-backed SAVE Act [^]. He faced criticism for stalling the bill [^], with some reports suggesting he sought to "smother" it [^]. This stance provoked significant internal discord, leading to Trump and other Republicans criticizing McConnell over the bill's delay [^]. The Senate GOP was notably divided on how to proceed with the legislation [^].
McConnell's direct opposition to the SAVE Act fueled party division, not unity. Evidence indicates that his actions became a central point of contention rather than a discreet signal for strategic unity. McConnell, alongside Senators Tillis, Murkowski, and Collins, actively contributed to the SAVE Act's defeat, voting 48–50 against it [^]. Additionally, he was among four Republican senators who voted against incorporating the SAVE America Act into a budget package [^]. This active opposition, rather than a hidden push for caucus unity, intensified criticism from within Republican ranks and worsened existing divisions over the bill [^].
7. Does the SAVE America Act Align with Libertarian Principles?
| Primary Focus | Requiring proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Supporter | Senator Rand Paul [^] |
| Excluded Provisions | No new federal spending, national debt adjustments, or broad executive authority expansions [^] |
The SAVE America Act strengthens election integrity through citizenship verification. This legislation primarily aims to amend the Help America Vote Act of 2002 by requiring satisfactory evidence of U.S. citizenship for individuals to register to vote in federal elections [^]. It also outlines state responsibilities concerning voter registration forms and empowers the Attorney General to initiate civil actions for violations of these requirements [^].
The act avoids triggering libertarian concerns on spending or power. Its provisions do not introduce large-scale federal spending programs, alter national debt limits, or significantly broaden the scope of executive authority beyond what is necessary to administer these new election integrity standards [^]. This design aligns with principles often advocated by libertarian-leaning lawmakers. Senator Rand Paul, a prominent libertarian voice, has publicly supported the SAVE America Act and serves as a cosponsor, indicating the bill's content is consistent with his legislative principles rather than contradictory [^].
8. How Is a 60-Vote Senate Bill Imminently Signaled?
| Imminent Vote Signal | Filing of a motion to invoke cloture [^] |
|---|---|
| SAVE America Act House Votes | 50 votes [^] |
| SAVE America Act Senate Outcome | Rejected, did not clear 60-vote threshold [^] |
A definitive procedural signal for an imminent vote is filing cloture. The filing of a motion to invoke cloture is the definitive procedural signal from the Majority Leader's office indicating an imminent vote on legislation, particularly for measures requiring a 60-vote threshold to overcome a filibuster [^]. This formal action, such as a 'Schumer Motion to Suspend the Rules,' is designed to limit debate and force a vote on a specific measure [^]. While the U.S. Senate Daily Press announces upcoming votes and procedural motions, the filing of the cloture petition itself serves as the key procedural action signaling an impending vote [^].
The 'SAVE America Act' faces challenges in clearing the 60-vote threshold. Public reports indicate that the 'SAVE America Act' successfully cleared the House and advanced to the Senate with an initial count of 50 votes [^]. However, the Senate has previously rejected attempts to revive this act, which indicates that it did not secure the necessary votes to meet the 60-vote threshold required for advancement [^]. Specific, private whip count data from the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee is not detailed in the available web research, although committees such as the 'Democratic Policy Committee' and 'Democratic Steering and Policy Committee' are established within Senate Democratic leadership [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 01, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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