Mango
Market Model 9.0% 2.4%
Mint
Market Model 30.0% 11.8%
Financials Markets
Active Markets (24)
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 20.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 24.7%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 95.0% 100.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 98.0% 100.0%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 29.0% 17.3%
Before Apr 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 10.8%
Deel
Market Model 60.0% 72.4%
Rippling
Market Model 37.0% 27.6%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 1.0% 0.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
Before Jun 1, 2027
Market Model 27.0% 16.0%
Before Feb 1, 2027
Market Model 20.0% 11.7%
Before May 1, 2027
Market Model 20.0% 22.0%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Market Model 22.0% 19.0%
WTI Crude Oil
Market Model 34.0% 29.9%
Brent Crude Oil
Market Model 55.0% 70.1%
Gold
Market Model 36.0% 28.7%
S&P 500 Total Return Index
Market Model 65.0% 71.3%
S&P 500 Total Return Index
Market Model 75.0% 89.6%
BTC
Market Model 14.0% 10.4%
above 1020 million
Market Model 5.0% 5.3%
above 1060 million
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
SpaceX
Market Model 98.0% 97.4%
Jersey Mike's
Market Model 92.0% 92.1%
Brex
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Ramp
Market Model 91.0% 89.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 81.0% 80.0%
OpenAI
Market Model 31.0% 18.6%
5,900 or below
Market Model 23.2% 11.9%
6,300 or below
Market Model 39.0% 24.0%
Yes
Market Model 71.0% 78.5%
28,400 or above
Market Model 99.9% 100.0%
29,000 or above
Market Model 98.0% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.5% 22.3%
7,200 or above
Market Model 99.9% 99.6%
7,400 or above
Market Model 92.4% 91.2%
Yes
Market Model 69.9% 64.8%
7 or above
Market Model 25.0% 18.0%
6.5 or above
Market Model 73.0% 52.0%
18,999.99 or below
Market Model 8.0% 19.2%
25,500 to 25,999.99
Market Model 2.0% 4.8%
3,999.99 or below
Market Model 3.0% 2.4%
7,400 to 7,599.99
Market Model 8.0% 11.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What flavors will JUUL relaunch? Top outcome: Mango | 9.0% | 2.4% | Med | $51,837.22 | Refresh |
| When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 20.8% | High | $511,964.73 | Refresh |
| When will SpaceX officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 95.0% | 100.0% | High | $7,290,395.05 | Refresh |
| When will Ramp officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 29.0% | 17.3% | High | $5,857.57 | Refresh |
| Will Deel or Rippling IPO first? Top outcome: Deel | 60.0% | 72.4% | High | $9,003 | Refresh |
| When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 0.6% | High | $562,722.09 | Refresh |
| When will Anduril officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 16.0% | High | $82,035.39 | Refresh |
| When will Beast Industries officially announce an IPO? Top outcome: Before May 1, 2027 | 20.0% | 22.0% | High | $6,258.04 | Refresh |
| Annual Return: WTI vs. Brent? Top outcome: WTI Crude Oil | 34.0% | 29.9% | High | $12,963.95 | Refresh |
| Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold? Top outcome: Gold | 36.0% | 28.7% | High | $17,910.1 | Refresh |
| Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC? Top outcome: S&P 500 Total Return Index | 75.0% | 89.6% | High | $7,640.71 | Refresh |
| DoorDash total orders in Q2 Top outcome: above 1020 million | 5.0% | 5.3% | High | $16,208.05 | Refresh |
| Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year? Top outcome: SpaceX | 98.0% | 97.4% | Med | $1,660,641.27 | Refresh |
| Will Ramp or Brex IPO first? Top outcome: Brex | 3.0% | 0.0% | Med | $21,403.45 | Refresh |
| Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Top outcome: Anthropic | 81.0% | 80.0% | Med | $124,032.03 | Refresh |
| How low will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 5,900 or below | 23.2% | 11.9% | High | $693,660.99 | Refresh |
| Will the S&P finish positive this year? Yes refers to: Positive Growth | 71.0% | 78.5% | Med | $634,403.5 | Refresh |
| How high will the Nasdaq-100 price get in 2026? Top outcome: 28,400 or above | 99.9% | 100.0% | High | $227,168.32 | Refresh |
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 30.5% | 22.3% | Med | $162,559.71 | Refresh |
| How high will the S&P get this year? Top outcome: 7,200 or above | 99.9% | 99.6% | High | $980,523.23 | Refresh |
| Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026? Yes refers to: 25,249.86 or above | 69.9% | 64.8% | Med | $54,109.31 | Refresh |
| USD/BRL high in 2026 Top outcome: 7 or above | 25.0% | 18.0% | High | $542,760 | Refresh |
| Nasdaq-100 close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 18,999.99 or below | 8.0% | 19.2% | Med | $514,992 | Refresh |
| S&P close price end of 2026? Top outcome: 3,999.99 or below | 3.0% | 2.4% | Med | $826,748 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (33)
Above 4.70%
Market Model 11.0% 11.5%
Above 4.55%
Market Model 45.0% 44.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 76.0% 81.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least $7 million
Market Model 81.0% 1.0%
At least $6 million
Market Model 91.0% 85.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y US Treasury Yield at month-end? Top outcome: Above 4.70% | 11.0% | 11.5% | High | $9,283.34 | |
| — | — | Med | $2,584 | ||
| — | — | High | $54,326.3 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,212.29 | ||
| — | — | Med | $3,027.15 | ||
| — | — | Med | $613.28 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,404.38 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,254 | ||
| — | — | Med | $1,221.06 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,363.25 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,036.71 | ||
| — | — | High | $25,704.9 | ||
| — | — | Med | $204,889.69 | ||
| — | — | High | $174,980 | ||
| — | — | High | $12,948 | ||
| — | — | High | $194,063 | ||
| — | — | High | $12,634 | ||
| — | — | Med | $20,322 | ||
| — | — | High | $39,476 | ||
| — | — | High | $47,936 | ||
| — | — | Med | $582,337 | ||
| — | — | High | $994 | ||
| — | — | High | $177,173 | ||
| — | — | High | $720,493 | ||
| Netflix price increase in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 76.0% | 81.0% | Med | $144,574 | |
| — | — | Med | $58,037 | ||
| — | — | Med | $56,909 | ||
| — | — | Med | $103,769 | ||
| — | — | Med | $59,064 | ||
| — | — | Med | $151,752 | ||
| — | — | Med | $58,466 | ||
| — | — | Med | $297,831 | ||
| What will Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator go for at auction? Top outcome: At least $7 million | 81.0% | 1.0% | Med | $499,183 |
