Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect South Sudan to have its US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Significant policy shifts required to downgrade Iran or North Korea advisories.
- Haiti appears to show more potential for stabilization than Somalia in 2025-2026.
- Allied nations unanimously advise against travel to Russia as of May 2026.
- Significant de-escalation in Sudan or South Sudan would prompt a review.
- Afghanistan maintains a Level 4 advisory due to extremely high risks.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 4.0% | 1.4% | Diplomatic progress or de-escalation of regional tensions could lead to a re-evaluation of travel risks. |
| Syria | 12.0% | 5.1% | A significant reduction in conflict or improved internal stability might prompt a travel advisory downgrade. |
| Ukraine | 11.0% | 4.3% | A substantial decrease in hostilities or a peace agreement could lead to an advisory downgrade. |
| Lebanon | 7.9% | 3.1% | Improved political stability or reduced regional tensions may result in a travel advisory change. |
| Somalia | 2.2% | 0.7% | Continued gains in security and government control could lead to a re-assessment of travel risks. |
Current Context
The U.S. Department of State categorizes travel advisories into four distinct levels. These levels provide guidance on safety and security risks, ranging from Level 1, "Exercise Normal Precautions," which indicates the lowest risk, to Level 4, "Do Not Travel," which signifies life-threatening risks and potentially limited U.S. government assistance [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Level 2, "Exercise Increased Caution," advises awareness of heightened risks, while Level 3, "Reconsider Travel," suggests avoiding travel due to serious risks [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Factors influencing these advisory levels include crime, terrorism, civil unrest, health concerns such as disease outbreaks, and natural disasters [^][^][^][^][^]. Updates to advisories can occur at any time if conditions change substantially [^][^].
May 2026 saw various countries maintain or update their advisory levels. Many Caribbean islands, including Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, and Dominica, maintained Level 1 advisories, recommending normal precautions [^]. Iceland and Croatia also retained their Level 1 status [^]. Sweden was designated Level 2 due to concerns about terrorism [^]. Chile's advisory was updated to Level 2 because of crime, civil unrest, and a health notice regarding the Andes virus [^]. Jordan's advisory was elevated to Level 3, "Reconsider Travel," due to terrorism and armed conflict, and Lebanon remained at Level 4, "Do Not Travel," owing to risks such as crime, terrorism, unrest, and armed conflict [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price for this market has been entirely static, exhibiting a sideways trend with no significant price movements. The probability has held constant at 7.6% since the market's inception, as shown by the identical starting price, current price, and overall price range. Because there have been no price spikes or drops throughout the trading period, there are no market reactions that can be linked to any specific news or developments in the provided context.
A key observation from the chart is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the market shows a lack of active participation and conviction from traders. This suggests that the current 7.6% probability is likely the initial price set when the market was created and does not yet reflect a consensus formed through buying or selling activity. The lack of volume means the market's opinion has not been tested.
Consequently, no support or resistance levels have been established. The 7.6% price point is simply the opening line, not a level confirmed by trading. The chart suggests that market sentiment is currently dormant or undeveloped. The static price and zero volume imply that traders have not yet engaged with this market, leaving the collective outlook on the probability of a travel advisory downgrade for Afghanistan in 2026 undefined.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Uganda after the market opens on May 22, 2026, and before January 1, 2027. If this condition is not met, the market resolves to "No" and closes by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST. The advisory must apply to the entire country, be published on the official State Department website, and insider trading by specific individuals is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Sudan | $0.09 | $0.98 | 15% |
| Russia | $0.15 | $0.91 | 12% |
| Syria | $0.12 | $0.94 | 12% |
| Ukraine | $0.16 | $0.88 | 11% |
| Haiti | $0.07 | $0.97 | 8% |
| Iraq | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Lebanon | $0.12 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Yemen | $0.12 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Afghanistan | $0.11 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Gaza | $0.07 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Burma (Myanmar) | $0.07 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Iran | $0.10 | $0.95 | 4% |
| Sudan | $0.05 | $0.98 | 4% |
| North Korea | $0.05 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Somalia | $0.06 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Libya | $0.05 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | $0.42 | $0.73 | 0% |
| Uganda | $0.67 | $0.48 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively discussing which countries might have their US Travel Advisory level downgraded in 2026, with a significant point of clarification emerging that 'downgraded' means the country is deemed safer, moving to a lower advisory level. For countries like Iran and Iraq, currently at Level 4 ('Do Not Travel'), many argue that a downgrade to Level 3 ('Reconsider Travel') is improbable given ongoing safety concerns and the unlikelihood of the US promoting travel to these regions. While Ukraine and Mexico were also mentioned as possibilities, the main consensus highlights the difficulty for high-risk countries to achieve a lower advisory level within the specified timeframe.
4. What specific diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in U.S. foreign policy in 2026 could trigger a downgrade of the Level 4 travel advisories for Iran or North Korea?
| Iran conflict start | Late February 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Advisory review frequency | At least every six months (for Level 3 and 4 countries) [^] |
| North Korea primary advisory reason | Arrest, long-term detention, and wrongful detention of U.S. citizens [^] |
Downgrading travel advisories for Iran and North Korea demands significant policy shifts. A downgrade of Level 4 travel advisories for either Iran or North Korea by 2026 would necessitate substantial diplomatic breakthroughs or shifts in U.S. foreign policy that directly address fundamental risks. These core risks include violence, terrorism, wrongful detention of U.S. citizens, and critically limited U.S. consular services [^][^][^][^][^][^]. For Iran, resolving the conflict that began in late February 2026 with the United States and Israel is essential, while for North Korea, changes in U.S. policy regarding denuclearization and guarantees against wrongful detention are key [^][^].
Iran's advisory downgrade requires conflict resolution and nuclear agreements. A downgrade for Iran would particularly require a substantial de-escalation or resolution of its current conflict, including a successful, verified peace agreement. Such an agreement might encompass reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, a concrete, verifiable agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program and a commitment to refrain from interfering in regional domestic affairs are crucial for reducing international tension [^][^][^]. Addressing wrongful detentions and enabling full U.S. consular services, beyond just the issue of frozen assets, is also a specific prerequisite for lifting the current Level 4 advisory [^][^][^][^][^][^].
North Korea needs policy shifts and denuclearization flexibility for downgrade. For North Korea, the Level 4 advisory is largely due to risks of "arrest, long-term detention, and wrongful detention" of U.S. citizens and the absence of diplomatic relations [^]. A downgrade would require changes from both the U.S. and North Korea. A potential shift in U.S. foreign policy towards "stable coexistence" or an interim deal, possibly omitting "denuclearization" from 2026 strategy documents, could facilitate renewed diplomacy [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Essential steps include a sustained halt to missile tests, the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic presence and consular services, and a formal agreement from North Korea to cease wrongful detention practices, alongside reliable consular access through a protecting power [^][^][^][^]. Travel advisories are subject to regular review, at least every six months for Level 3 and 4 countries, and can be updated as conditions evolve [^].
5. How do the on-the-ground security trends in Haiti, based on 2025-2026 data, compare with those in Somalia, and which country shows more potential for stabilization?
| Haiti Casualties | 5,519 killed and 2,608 injured (1 Mar 2025 - 15 Jan 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| US Travel Advisory Status | Level 4 Do Not Travel (Haiti and Somalia throughout 2026) [^][^] |
| Somalia Internally Displaced Persons | 3.5 million (June 2025) [^][^] |
Haiti and Somalia faced severe security challenges throughout 2025-2026. Both nations maintained a Level 4 'Do Not Travel' US Travel Advisory status throughout 2026, with no alterations to their advisory levels or risk indicators [^][^]. In Haiti, the security situation during this period was characterized by gang-driven erosion of state authority and high levels of violence [^][^][^]. Conversely, Somalia's security landscape remained primarily dominated by the activities of Al-Shabab [^][^][^].
Both nations experienced intense violence and significant operational setbacks. Haiti endured substantial violence, with a minimum of 5,519 individuals killed and 2,608 injured between March 1, 2025, and January 15, 2026, including 3,301 deaths during security operations targeting gangs [^][^]. Electoral planning in Haiti, including a proposed first round of elections on August 30, 2026, was contingent upon improvements in the security environment [^]. Meanwhile, Somalia's security threat from Al-Shabab intensified, leading to the reversal of some government gains and the retaking of towns. This instability contributed to the continued displacement of 3.5 million internally displaced persons as of June 2025 [^][^], and the Security Council reported ongoing extensions of sanctions regimes related to Al-Shabab [^].
Stabilization prospects remain uncertain for both countries in 2025-2026. Haiti's electoral planning was directly dependent on tangible security improvements [^]. Somalia received documented stabilization support, but these efforts were challenged by intensified Al-Shabab operations and government setbacks [^]. Based on the available research for 2025-2026, there is no explicit indication as to which country demonstrated more potential for stabilization.
6. What do recent security assessments from allied nations like the UK, Canada, and Australia indicate about conditions in Russia, and do they corroborate the U.S. 'Do Not Travel' advisory for 2026?
| Travel Advisory Status for Russia | Highest-level 'Do Not Travel' or 'Avoid All Travel' by US, UK, Canada, Australia (As of May 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Key Reasons for Advisory | Ongoing war in Ukraine, arbitrary detention risk, limited consular capacity, civil unrest, terrorism threats [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Advisory Outlook for 2026 | No indication of impending downgrade in 2026 [^][^] |
Allied nations unanimously advise against travel to Russia in 2026. As of May 2026, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia all maintain their highest-level 'Do Not Travel' or 'Avoid All Travel' advisories for Russia [^][^][^][^][^]. Recent security assessments from these allied nations consistently corroborate the severe conditions in the country.
Multiple severe risks underpin current 'Do Not Travel' warnings for Russia. These nations cite factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, the high risk of arbitrary detention or arrest of foreign nationals, limited consular capacity, civil unrest, and persistent terrorism threats [^][^][^][^][^]. These factors contribute to an extremely dangerous environment for foreign travelers.
Russia's security conditions are unlikely to improve, maintaining current advisories. There is no indication of any impending downgrade to these travel advisories in 2026 [^][^]. The security conditions underpinning these warnings have remained stable or deteriorated since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, reinforcing the current 'Do Not Travel' stance [^][^].
7. Which specific conflict de-escalation milestones or political settlements in Sudan or South Sudan would need to be reached in 2026 to prompt a State Department review?
| South Sudan Elections | Currently slated for December 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| RJMEC Q1 2026 Report Briefing | May 20, 2026 [^] |
| Sudan Ceasefire Proposal | Renewable three-month ceasefire proposed in May 2026 [^] |
A US State Department review of travel advisories in 2026 would likely be prompted by significant progress in de-escalating conflict and improving political stability. A "Level 4: Do Not Travel" status for Sudan or South Sudan is based on assessments of risks, including crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, health threats, and the US government's capacity to provide consular services. This highest alert level is maintained as long as significant security threats or a lack of governmental capacity to assist US citizens persist [^][^].
For South Sudan, the review depends on peace agreement implementation and election progress. Key de-escalation milestones in 2026 that could prompt a State Department review include the successful implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Progress on constitutional amendments and election processes, which are continuously monitored by bodies such as the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), are also significant. Preparations for national elections are currently slated for December 2026, and the RJMEC's first quarterly report of 2026 (January 1 to March 31, 2026) was briefed on May 20, 2026, indicating ongoing oversight of this progress [^].
Sudan's review hinges on implementing proposed violence reduction agreements. A primary de-escalation milestone in 2026 would involve the successful implementation of proposed agreements to reduce violence. Recent political efforts in May 2026 have included proposals for a renewable three-month ceasefire, intended to be supervised by local, regional, and international mechanisms. The aim of such a ceasefire is to reduce violence and build confidence towards ending the civil war, directly addressing the significant security threats and civil unrest that contribute to Sudan's "Level 4: Do Not Travel" status [^][^][^].
8. What does open-source intelligence from 2025 and early 2026 reveal about the operational capabilities of terrorist and insurgent groups within Afghanistan, and does it suggest a decreasing risk to foreigners?
| Overall Risk to Foreigners | Extremely high (May 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| US Travel Advisory Level | Level 4 'Do Not Travel' (May 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
| Number of Terrorist Groups | 20 to 23 (early 2026) [^][^][^] |
Afghanistan poses an extremely high risk for foreigners due to prevalent threats. The U.S. State Department maintains a Level 4 'Do Not Travel' advisory for Afghanistan as of May 2026, citing terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, and the risk of wrongful detention [^][^][^][^]. There is no indication of a decreasing risk or a potential downgrade of this advisory in 2026, with persistent security volatility suggesting it will likely remain at Level 4 through the remainder of the year [^][^].
Numerous terrorist and insurgent groups maintain significant operational capabilities in Afghanistan. As of early 2026, between 20 and 23 terrorist and insurgent groups, including prominent entities like Al-Qaeda and IS-K, have a physical presence within the country [^][^][^]. Al-Qaeda notably operates multiple training camps and has access to a substantial amount of military equipment left behind in 2021 [^][^][^]. While the Taliban have attempted to control some groups, IS-K and other armed militants continue to present significant dangers to foreign nationals, responsible for lethal attacks, such as those targeting Chinese miners, and contributing to ongoing instability along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border [^][^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
This change was reported on May 24, 2026 [^] . Despite this, the New Caledonia advisory page displayed Level 3 on June 4, 2024 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The U.S.
- Trigger: State Department travel advisory for New Caledonia was downgraded from Level 3 ("Reconsider Travel") to Level 2 ("Exercise Increased Caution") effective May 21, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This change was reported on May 24, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Despite this, the New Caledonia advisory page displayed Level 3 on June 4, 2024 [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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