US-Iran nuclear deal?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for a US-Iran nuclear deal occurring before Jan 20, 2029 (model 68.9% vs market 83.0%), attributing this to Iran's increasing uranium stockpile and ability to maintain oil exports.
1. Executive Verdict
- Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile consistently shows accelerating increases.
- Iran successfully maintains significant crude oil exports despite US sanctions.
- US preconditions for nuclear talks remain stringent, hindering a 2026 deal.
- Israel's covert actions frequently target Iranian nuclear scientists, disrupting its program.
- Oman and Pakistan facilitate ongoing indirect US-Iran discussions to revive talks.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May | 19.0% | 11.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before June | 47.0% | 30.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before July | 52.0% | 34.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before August | 63.0% | 44.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before September | 61.0% | 44.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a clear, albeit volatile, upward trend since its inception. The perceived probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2026 has risen from a starting price of 11.0% to its current level of 19.0%. The market has traded within a wide range, establishing a historical low at 2.0% and a peak at 39.0%. The most significant recent movement was a sharp spike from 10.0% to 19.0% around mid-April. This price action suggests that the 39.0% level acts as a significant long-term resistance, while the 10.0% area has recently served as a support base for the latest upward move.
Without specific news context, the catalyst for the recent price jump cannot be definitively identified. However, the trading volume associated with this move suggests strong market conviction. Volume was notably higher during the sharp price increase, indicating that the shift in odds was driven by a significant influx of trading activity rather than a small number of trades. This pattern suggests a substantive change in trader perception. Overall, the chart reflects a market that, while still highly skeptical of a deal being finalized (as indicated by a price well below 50%), has grown increasingly optimistic over time. The trend suggests that traders are slowly pricing in a greater possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before June
📈 April 14, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 26.0% to 43.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Before August
📉 April 12, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 46.0% to 35.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Before September
📈 April 11, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 63.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 10, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 40.0% to 54.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 09, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 44.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if the United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new formal written nuclear deal with Iran by July 1, 2026. This deal must impose verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and provide for the lifting or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for nuclear commitments. If no such agreement is reached by this date, the market resolves to NO. The market will close early if the event occurs, otherwise it closes by July 1, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT, with resolution based on specified news sources.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May | $0.20 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Before June | $0.45 | $0.57 | 47% |
| Before July | $0.55 | $0.48 | 52% |
| Before August | $0.66 | $0.38 | 63% |
| Before September | $0.61 | $0.40 | 61% |
| Before 2027 | $0.69 | $0.32 | 67% |
| Before 2028 | $0.80 | $0.25 | 75% |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | $0.87 | $0.20 | 83% |
Market Discussion
Traders on the "US-Iran nuclear deal?" market are divided, though probabilities for a deal increase with time, reaching 61% by September while earlier deadlines like June are at 47%. Arguments for a deal include reports of progress in talks, Trump's expressed optimism, and a noted shift in his stance on Iran's enrichment program. Conversely, skepticism arises from doubts about the Trump administration granting IRGC sanctions relief, poor historical accuracy of relevant predictions, recent collapsed talks, an active naval blockade, and concerns over the strict, dual requirements within the market's resolution rules.
5. What preconditions do US administrations set for Iran nuclear talks?
| Biden-aligned Enrichment Demand | Ceasing 60% uranium enrichment and irreversibly removing stockpiles [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump-aligned Enrichment Demand | Verifiably halt all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities [^] |
| Trump-aligned Deal Scope | Comprehensive, permanent deal covering nuclear, ballistic missiles, regional destabilization, and human rights [^] |
Key foreign policy advisors for 2024 US presidential frontrunners have outlined distinct preconditions for re-entering nuclear talks with Iran. For a Biden-aligned approach, often informed by analysis from organizations like CSIS, preconditions typically focus on Iran taking verifiable steps to reverse its current nuclear advancements, resolve international inspections issues, and address broader destabilizing activities. CSIS analysis suggests eight requirements, including resolving all International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigations into undeclared nuclear material, ceasing 60% uranium enrichment and irreversibly removing existing stockpiles, and removing advanced centrifuges with full transparency [^]. Further demands include re-implementing the Additional Protocol for monitoring, committing to address the 'sunset clauses' of the original nuclear deal, and increasing transparency on Iran's missile program. Broader preconditions extend to ending support for terrorist groups and destabilizing regional activities, and improving human rights by releasing political prisoners [^].
Conversely, think tanks advising a potential Trump administration outline significantly tougher preconditions for any new nuclear talks. The Heritage Foundation emphasizes that Iran must verifiably halt all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, dismantle its ballistic missile program, grant immediate and unrestricted access to all sites for international inspectors, and cease support for terrorism [^]. They advocate maintaining 'maximum pressure' sanctions until these conditions are met and that any new deal should be a treaty requiring Senate ratification [^]. JINSA reinforces these points, stating that Iran must agree to never develop nuclear weapons, cease all uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, dismantle advanced centrifuges, and grant immediate, unfettered access to all suspect sites for IAEA inspections [^]. They further specify that any new agreement must be comprehensive, addressing not only the nuclear program but also ballistic missiles, regional destabilization, and human rights, and should be permanent without sunset clauses [^].
6. What is Iran's Current 60% Enriched Uranium Stockpile Level?
| Latest 60% Enriched Uranium Stockpile | 138.8 kg uranium mass (February 2026) [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Significant Quantity (60% U-235 Equivalent) | Approximately 42 kg uranium mass [^], [^] |
| Stockpile Multiples of Significant Quantity | Over 3 times [^] |
Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile has shown a consistent, accelerating increase. According to IAEA reports, Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity has consistently grown. In May 2025, the uranium mass reached 105.7 kg, equivalent to 169.1 kg of UF6 [^], [^]. This volume further increased to 121.5 kg (uranium mass) by November 2025 [^], [^]. The most recent data, from February 2026, indicates the stockpile reached 138.8 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235, corresponding to 222.1 kg of UF6 [^], [^]. This trend highlights an acceleration in Iran's production of near-bomb-grade uranium [^].
Iran's growing stockpile vastly exceeds the 'significant quantity' threshold. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defines a 'significant quantity' (SQ) as 25 kg of uranium-235 for highly enriched uranium, representing the amount of nuclear material from which an explosive device cannot be excluded [^], [^]. For uranium enriched to 60%, this translates to approximately 42 kg of total uranium mass to yield the 25 kg of U-235 required for a nuclear weapon [^], [^]. Iran's current stockpile of 138.8 kg of 60% enriched uranium, as of February 2026 [^], [^], surpasses this significant quantity by more than three times [^]. This expanding inventory raises substantial concerns among Western powers regarding potential nuclear proliferation implications.
7. How Does Iran Maintain Oil Exports Despite US Sanctions?
| Crude Oil Exports to China | 1.4 million bpd (in September) [^] |
|---|---|
| Export Facilitation Method | Reliance on "shadow fleet" [^] |
| Projected Elevated Exports | January 2025 and February 2026 [^] |
Iran exports significant crude oil volumes, primarily to China. Despite US sanctions, satellite and maritime tracking data indicate Iran maintains substantial crude oil exports. While data from firms like Kpler and Vortexa show a dip to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to China in September
| IranOilGas Network">[^], other analyses, such as those from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), suggest "elevated exports" during periods like January 2025 and February 2026, pointing to consistently high-volume activity at various times [^].
A "shadow fleet" facilitates sustained illicit oil exports. This sophisticated network plays a crucial role in enabling Iran to bypass international monitoring and sanctions, allowing for the continued sale of oil [^]. The ongoing operation and maturation of Iran's oil export network under sanctions pressure underscore its resilience in maintaining critical revenue streams [^].
This revenue stream lessens US sanctions' economic impact. Even with fluctuations, such as the reported decline in September
| IranOilGas Network">[^] , the sustained level of exports indicates that Iran's economy continues to derive substantial income from these illicit sales. This adaptive capacity suggests Iran has largely found ways to sustain its oil revenue despite external pressure, which could potentially reduce Tehran's economic incentive to negotiate [^].
8. How Have Covert Actions Targeted Iran's Nuclear Program and Diplomacy?
| Assassinated Scientists | At least nine Iranian nuclear scientists [^] |
|---|---|
| Major Cyberattack | Stuxnet cyberattack in 2010 [^] |
| Secret Communications Date | January 2026 [^] |
Israel has frequently targeted Iranian nuclear scientists to disrupt its program. Over the last decade and a half, at least nine Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated, with Israel's Mossad often implicated in these incidents [^]. Notable killings include Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, widely considered the 'father' of Iran's nuclear weapons program, as well as Masoud Alimohammadi (2010), Majid Shahriari (2010), Darioush Rezaeinejad (2011), and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan (2012) [^]. These targeted eliminations represent a high-stakes, covert strategy to remove key personnel involved in the program [^].
Israeli actions against facilities involve sophisticated sabotage and cyber warfare. Operations against Iranian nuclear facilities have included the sophisticated Stuxnet cyberattack in 2010, which caused significant damage to Iran's centrifuges, and multiple reported explosions and power outages at the Natanz enrichment facility in 2020 and 2021 [^]. Other alleged incidents encompass drone attacks and explosions at various military and nuclear-related sites across Iran. These operations highlight a multifaceted approach employing cyber warfare and physical sabotage to impede Iran's nuclear advancements [^].
Diplomatic backchannels occurred without a clear link to sabotage changes. Israel and Iran reportedly engaged in secret messages via Russia in January 2026, intended to de-escalate tensions and clarify intentions [^]. These communications included Israeli assurances that they did not intend to attack the Iranian mainland, while Iran indicated it would not respond to actions within its borders but would retaliate against attacks outside its borders [^]. However, the available information does not indicate a direct correlation between a decrease in reported sabotage events and the progress of these backchannel diplomatic communications.
9. What Intermediaries and De-escalatory Steps are in US-Iran Talks?
| Intermediaries | Oman, Pakistan [^] |
|---|---|
| De-escalatory Steps Discussed | Reports of unfreezing $6 billion in Iranian assets, denied by US [^] |
| Timeframe of Discussions | Ongoing post-US 2024 election, with sources dated 2026 [^] |
Oman and Pakistan facilitate indirect US-Iran discussions to revive nuclear talks. Oman has played a significant role as a backchannel intermediary, facilitating a third round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, which reportedly showed progress [^]. Pakistan has also confirmed its involvement as an intermediary, facilitating "indirect talks" between US and Iranian officials [^]. These discussions have commenced in various locations, including Islamabad [^], and are part of ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at reviving US-Iran nuclear talks [^]. These mediations are occurring in the period following the US 2024 election, with documentation extending as late as 2026 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 01, 2026
- Closes: January 20, 2029
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
Last updated: April 15, 2026, 12:21 UTC
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14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26APR: NO (Apr 01, 2026)
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