Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for John Kiriakou, with a 28.9% model probability significantly lower than the market's 42.0% for him to be pardoned by Trump in 2026, though he remains the most likely outcome.
1. Executive Verdict
- Political arguments for Julian Assange's pardon differ from Steve Bannon's.
- Trump explicitly ruled out a pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried in early 2026.
- Official sources track 2025-2026 lobbying efforts and donations for pardon candidates.
- Trump's 2025-2026 clemency record includes various OPA-processed grants.
- Ghislaine Maxwell appears to have low pardon probability by the end of 2026.
- Keonne Rodriguez and Steve Bannon lead implied probabilities for pardon before 2027.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 15.0% | 7.5% | Trump may pardon individuals connected to high-profile figures or perceived political targets. |
| Derek Chauvin | 6.1% | 2.3% | Support for law enforcement has been a theme in past clemency considerations. |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 9.0% | 3.6% | Pardons sometimes extend to figures entangled in complex financial or political cases. |
| Nicolás Maduro | 6.0% | 2.2% | Foreign policy considerations may influence clemency decisions for international figures. |
| John Kiriakou | 42.0% | 28.9% | Trump has shown interest in pardoning individuals involved in intelligence controversies. |
Current Context
President Trump has issued a high volume of clemencies in his second term. The administration has granted over 2,000 clemencies, which includes more than 1,500 blanket pardons related to January 6, alongside approximately ten white-collar pardons and commutations issued in January 2026 alone [^][^][^][^].
Recent pardons include prominent figures facing "pay-to-play" scrutiny. Notably, Changpeng Zhao (Binance founder), Joseph Schwartz (nursing home owner), and Trevor Milton (Nikola founder) have received pardons [^][^][^]. Combined donations totaling around $250,000 from these individuals are currently part of a "pay-to-play" congressional investigation as of May 2026 [^][^]. Additionally, betting markets and Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyer indicated in April 2026 that the odds of her receiving a pardon are increasing, though no confirmation has been made [^][^].
Anticipation for future pardons has intensified with record lobbying efforts. Reports from April 2026 suggest rumors of mass end-of-term pardons for advisors, with prediction markets actively tracking monthly clemency counts [^][^][^]. Lobbying for pardons reached $5.2 million in the first year of the second term, marking an eight-fold increase compared to the previous administration [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern, moving within a very narrow 1.5 percentage point range. The price began at 8.0% on April 24, 2026, briefly peaked at 9.5% on May 3, 2026, and has since settled near the top of its range at 8.9%. There is no specific event in the provided context that directly accounts for the brief price spike in early May. However, the overall low but persistent probability reflects the background context that President Trump has been actively granting clemencies throughout his second term, including a number of white-collar pardons earlier in 2026. This established pattern of pardons likely provides a floor for the market's pricing.
Trading volume in this market appears to be low, with a total of 366 contracts traded. The volume data suggests that most activity occurred at the market's inception, with no new volume recorded during the price movements in May. This low liquidity indicates a lack of strong conviction from traders and suggests that the price changes may be the result of small trades rather than a broad shift in market opinion. The price has established a soft support level at its starting point of 8.0% and met resistance at its peak of 9.5%. The market is currently trading just below this resistance level.
Overall, the chart suggests a market sentiment that assigns a small but consistent probability to another Trump pardon occurring in 2026. The tight trading range and low volume imply that traders have priced in the existing pattern of clemencies and are awaiting a significant new catalyst to shift the odds. The lack of volatility indicates that recent pardons may have been largely anticipated, leading to a stable market that is reflecting a general wait-and-see attitude rather than reacting to specific news.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if John Kiriakou receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term, verified by the White House or New York Times. This must occur before January 1, 2027, otherwise, the market resolves to "No." The market opened on February 2, 2026, and will close and expire early if a pardon is granted, or by January 1, 2027, at 10:00 am EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Kiriakou | $0.44 | $0.59 | 42% |
| Rachel Cherwitz | $0.31 | $0.74 | 31% |
| Keonne Rodriguez | $0.30 | $0.75 | 30% |
| Nicole Daedone | $0.23 | $0.78 | 22% |
| Tim Leissner | $0.22 | $0.80 | 22% |
| Bill Hwang | $0.14 | $0.88 | 21% |
| Steve Bannon | $0.21 | $0.83 | 21% |
| Larry Householder | $0.15 | $0.91 | 16% |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | $0.17 | $0.84 | 15% |
| Kenneth Petty | $0.16 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Tal Alexander | $0.12 | $0.95 | 13% |
| Torence Hatch | $0.16 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Jared Kushner | $0.10 | $0.92 | 12% |
| Robin Smith | $0.16 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Elizabeth Holmes | $0.08 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Roger Ver | $0.15 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Edward Snowden | $0.14 | $0.90 | 9% |
| Eric Adams | $0.09 | $0.96 | 9% |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | $0.09 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Donald Trump | $0.09 | $0.94 | 9% |
| Sean Combs | $0.12 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Aimee Bock | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
| Bob Menendez | $0.09 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Joseph Maldonado | $0.08 | $0.97 | 8% |
| Julian Assange | $0.12 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Derek Chauvin | $0.10 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Nicolás Maduro | $0.09 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Braden John Karony | $0.12 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Matt Borges | $0.10 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Martin Shkreli | $0.07 | $0.96 | 2% |
Market Discussion
The market indicates John Kiriakou (42%), Rachel Cherwitz (31%), and Keonne Rodriguez (30%) are the leading prospects for a pardon. Traders also propose other individuals, with Sam Bankman-Fried noted as a "dark horse" option for a "Yes" outcome. Conversely, a "No" argument is made for Derek Chauvin, citing it would be a "worst look" for an administration.
4. How do the political arguments for pardoning Julian Assange versus Steve Bannon differ ahead of the 2026 midterms?
| Trump on Assange Pardon | Publicly stated "very serious consideration" for a pardon (May 2024) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Steve Bannon Conviction | Contempt-of-Congress for defying a Jan. 6 committee subpoena [^] |
| Bannon Case Development | Supreme Court cleared way for dismissal, DOJ requested dismissal (April 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Pardoning Julian Assange centers on journalism, free speech, and alleged political persecution. His supporters argue that his prosecution under the Espionage Act criminalizes journalism and free expression, characterizing it as unjust persecution [^][^]. This perspective resonates with Donald Trump's broader claims of "Biden weaponization" and "political prisoners," with Trump having stated in May 2024 that he would give "very serious consideration" to a pardon [^][^]. Conversely, opponents of a pardon contend that Assange jeopardized lives by exposing unredacted names of U.S. intelligence sources, and that a pardon would imply an unwillingness to face legal consequences [^][^].
Pardoning Steve Bannon focuses on executive privilege and legal procedural outcomes. The political arguments for pardoning Steve Bannon stem from his contempt-of-Congress conviction for defying a January 6 committee subpoena [^]. Ahead of the 2026 midterms, proponents of a pardon highlight issues of separation of powers, improper prosecution, and executive privilege [^][^][^]. These arguments are reinforced by Bannon's alliance with Donald Trump and a critical legal development in April 2026, when a Supreme Court action enabled the dismissal of his case, leading the Department of Justice to request its dismissal "in the interests of justice" [^][^][^][^]. Unlike the free-speech arguments prevalent in Assange's situation, Bannon's case emphasizes distinct legal and governmental power dynamics [^][^][^].
5. What developments in 2026 could significantly alter the pardon prospects for high-profile financial figures like Sam Bankman-Fried?
| Trump's Pardon Stance for SBF | Ruled out pardon in January 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| White House Clemency Reaffirmation | No clemency for SBF reaffirmed in February 2026 [^][^] |
| SBF's Exclusion from Crypto Pardons | Specifically excluded from crypto pardons by early 2026 [^] |
Sam Bankman-Fried's pardon prospects faced strong, explicit rejections in early 2026. Donald Trump explicitly ruled out a pardon for Bankman-Fried in January 2026, grouping him with figures like Diddy Combs and Maduro [^]. This negative stance was reinforced in February 2026 when the White House publicly reaffirmed that clemency would not be granted to SBF [^][^]. Efforts to secure a pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried also met failure in Congress by March 2026, with Senator Bernie Moreno notably voicing strong opposition [^][^].
SBF was specifically excluded from broader clemency grants for crypto figures. By early 2026, Trump had granted approximately 1,609 pardons and commutations, primarily for January 6 cases and political allies [^][^]. While some crypto-related pardons, such as that for CZ (Binance), were issued, Sam Bankman-Fried was explicitly excluded from these [^][^][^]. This exclusion was attributed to concerns over harm to retail investors and his perceived political toxicity [^].
Increased scrutiny on high-profile pardons created a challenging political environment. Throughout 2026, the landscape for controversial pardons became more difficult. Democratic investigations began in May 2026, scrutinizing pardons granted to individuals such as CZ and Trevor Milton, a significant donor [^][^]. These investigations raised "pay-to-play" allegations and questioned the impact of such pardons on restitution efforts [^][^]. This heightened scrutiny on high-profile clemency decisions did not indicate any developments in 2026 that would improve Sam Bankman-Fried's chances for a pardon.
6. Where can traders find reliable data tracking 2025-2026 lobbying efforts and donations linked to potential pardon recipients?
| Primary government lobbying data sources | LDA.gov, House Office of the Clerk’s Lobbying Disclosure site [^][^] |
|---|---|
| User-friendly lobbying database | OpenSecrets' federal lobbying pages [^] |
| Polymarket resolution period for pardons | November 17, 2025 – December 31, 2026 [^] |
Official government sources provide primary data on lobbying and donations. Traders can access reliable information on 2025–2026 lobbying efforts and linked donations through platforms like LDA.gov, the primary government platform where registrants submit public Quarterly Activity Reports (LD-2) and Contributions Reports (LD-203), which are accessible via search and download [^]. Additionally, the House Office of the Clerk’s Lobbying Disclosure site offers a search function for lobbying disclosures and contributions, clarifying that contributions reporting under the Lobbying Disclosure Act is filed semi-annually, as mandated by the Honest Leadership and Open Government Act (HLOGA) [^].
OpenSecrets offers a user-friendly platform for exploring lobbying data. For a more accessible experience, OpenSecrets’ federal lobbying pages feature an easier-to-use "lobbying database." This platform integrates data from the Senate Office of Public Records and includes functionalities such as organization search and donor lookup, enabling users to identify connections between lobbying-linked individuals and organizations and their political donations [^][^].
Polymarket defines pardon market resolution for specific dates. Specifically, for the Polymarket "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" market, resolution applies to pardons, commutations, or reprieves issued by former President Trump between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026 [^].
7. What is the 2025-2026 track record of Trump's Office of the Pardon Attorney versus direct presidential grants, and what does this imply for candidates?
| OPA clemency page last updated | March 2, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump first term pardons via OPA | 1,969 [^] |
| Trump first term commutations via OPA | 10,109 [^] |
President Trump's 2025-2026 clemency record includes various OPA-processed grants. The Office of the Pardon Attorney (OPA) clemency-grants page for President Donald J. Trump (2025–Present) documents recurring batches of pardons and commutations issued throughout 2025 and continuing into 2026, with the latest entries noted for January and February 2026. This page was last updated on March 2, 2026 [^]. However, the available information does not quantify the specific track record of direct presidential grants separate from those processed through the Office of the Pardon Attorney for the 2025-2026 period.
The Office of the Pardon Attorney facilitates clemency but doesn't limit presidential power. Under the Department of Justice’s clemency process, individuals submit petitions to the OPA, which then investigates and makes recommendations to the President. The President ultimately decides whether to grant or deny clemency, and the OPA's advice does not limit the President’s constitutional clemency power [^]. Historically, during President Trump’s first term, from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, a total of 12,078 clemency actions were requested through the OPA. These actions comprised 1,969 pardons and 10,109 commutations [^].
Implications for candidates cannot be determined from available information. The provided facts do not contain sufficient information to address what these findings might imply for candidates.
8. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction market odds indicate a low probability for Ghislaine Maxwell to be pardoned by the end of 2026, with approximately 8% for a "YES" and around 92% for "NO", reflecting an expectation of no pardon by Dec 31, 2026 [^] . Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarket">[^]. In a broader market tracking who Trump will pardon before 2027, Keonne Rodriguez holds the highest implied probability at 25.0%, followed by Steve Bannon at 20.0%, Bob Menendez at 18.0%, Roger Ver at 16.0%, and Edward Snowden at 11.3%, with Ghislaine Maxwell's probability at 7.1% [^].
Despite market expectations, Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyer stated in April 2026 that there is "a good chance" Trump will pardon her, contrasting with earlier statements from the White House (as described in the same coverage) indicating that clemency for Maxwell was not being considered or thought about [^] . Official documents from the Office of the Pardon Attorney show that Trump's clemency grants are underway in 2026, with 8 commutations and 12 pardons on Jan 15, 2026, and 1 pardon on Jan 16, 2026 [^]. The pardon process involves senior aides and advisers who bring "pardon picks" for Trump's review, and Trump sometimes issues pardons by whim after becoming interested in cases, suggesting there is no fixed calendar of "who will be pardoned in 2026" [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 02, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
9. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Prediction market odds indicate a low probability for Ghislaine Maxwell to be pardoned by the end of 2026, with approximately 8% for a "YES" and around 92% for "NO", reflecting an expectation of no pardon by Dec 31, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: In a broader market tracking who Trump will pardon before 2027, Keonne Rodriguez holds the highest implied probability at 25.0%, followed by Steve Bannon at 20.0%, Bob Menendez at 18.0%, Roger Ver at 16.0%, and Edward Snowden at 11.3%, with Ghislaine Maxwell's probability at 7.1% [^] .
- Trigger: Despite market expectations, Ghislaine Maxwell's lawyer stated in April 2026 that there is "a good chance" Trump will pardon her, contrasting with earlier statements from the White House (as described in the same coverage) indicating that clemency for Maxwell was not being considered or thought about [^] .
- Trigger: Official documents from the Office of the Pardon Attorney show that Trump's clemency grants are underway in 2026, with 8 commutations and 12 pardons on Jan 15, 2026, and 1 pardon on Jan 16, 2026 [^] .
11. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
