How long will the government shutdown last?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market favor At least 1 day at approximately 100% probability.
1. Executive Verdict
- DHS shutdown is U.S. history's longest, as of April 14, 2026.
- Discharge petition needs five signatures, signaling imminent shutdown end.
- House Freedom Caucus demands strict ICE enforcement for funding bills.
- Moderate Rep. Fitzpatrick opposes the shutdown, representing a competitive district.
- DHS funding lapse is the most pressing "must-pass" legislative deadline.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 60 days | 99.7% | 99.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 90 days | 46.0% | 35.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 100 days | 39.0% | 29.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 70 days | 81.0% | 72.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| At least 80 days | 60.0% | 49.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The market has traded between 11.0% and 99.9% YES probability, with a current reading of 99.7%. Total volume: 1,244,599 contracts.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: At least 70 days
📈 April 14, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 67.0% to 78.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 13, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 59.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📉 April 10, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 59.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: At least 65 days
📈 April 09, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 73.0% to 83.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: At least 75 days
📈 April 07, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 43.0% to 64.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the first US federal government shutdown between February 7, 2026, and December 31, 2026, lasts at least 90 days; otherwise, it resolves to NO. A shutdown is defined as an orderly suspension of agency work due to a lapse of appropriations, with its status recorded daily at 10:00 AM ET, and a duration of "at least X days" requires it to be in effect at 10:00 AM ET on X+1 consecutive days, including partial shutdowns. Verification is primarily from the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management, with the market opening on February 12, 2026, and closing on January 1, 2027, and specific conditions clarify that Department of Homeland Security components operating with alternative funding are not considered shut down.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 60 days | $1.00 | $0.00 | 100% |
| At least 65 days | $0.95 | $0.06 | 95% |
| At least 70 days | $0.82 | $0.19 | 81% |
| At least 75 days | $0.77 | $0.24 | 75% |
| At least 80 days | $0.60 | $0.41 | 60% |
| At least 85 days | $0.60 | $0.43 | 59% |
| At least 90 days | $0.47 | $0.54 | 46% |
| At least 100 days | $0.37 | $0.65 | 39% |
| At least 95 days | $0.37 | $0.64 | 36% |
| At least 110 days | $0.25 | $0.77 | 24% |
| At least 120 days | $0.17 | $0.86 | 17% |
| At least 130 days | $0.13 | $0.89 | 13% |
| At least 140 days | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| At least 150 days | $0.10 | $0.93 | 11% |
| At least 200 days | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| At least 300 days | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively discussing and profiting from bets on a lengthy government shutdown, with a strong consensus favoring "Yes" outcomes for durations of at least 70, 90, 130, or even 140 days. Participants note that contracts for longer shutdown periods are rapidly increasing in value, indicating a market belief in an extended event if a shutdown occurs in 2026. While many are holding out for very long durations, some are considering when to take profits.
5. What are the House Freedom Caucus's non-negotiable policy demands?
| ICE Operations Provisions | Non-negotiable for funding bills [^] |
|---|---|
| Voter ID Requirements | Non-negotiable for funding bills [^] |
| Broader Legislative Strategy | "Immigration freeze" and general "spending cuts" [^] |
Hardliners demand strict ICE enforcement and voter identification for funding bills. The House Freedom Caucus has identified specific policy riders as "non-negotiable" for any funding bill to pass, notably strong provisions regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations and funding. Hardliners have explicitly threatened to block Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding deals unless their demands concerning ICE are fully met [^]. Additionally, the caucus considers the implementation of voter ID requirements a critical non-negotiable policy rider, citing it as another reason to oppose and potentially obstruct funding deals [^].
The caucus seeks an immigration freeze and significant spending cuts. Beyond these specific demands, the House Freedom Caucus has outlined a "new battle plan" that emphasizes a comprehensive "immigration freeze" and broader "spending cuts" [^]. The caucus has consistently advocated for full DHS funding to be passed exclusively through a GOP-only reconciliation bill, rejecting leadership plans that do not align with their legislative preferences [^].
6. What is Brian Fitzpatrick's Role in Government Shutdown Efforts?
| Congressional District | Pennsylvania's 1st (won by opposing presidential candidate) [^] |
|---|---|
| Role in Caucus | Co-chair, House Problem Solvers Caucus [^] |
| Legislative Action | Developing bill to end DHS shutdown and reform ICE [^] |
Representative Brian Fitzpatrick opposes the shutdown and represents a competitive district. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) is a prominent moderate voice publicly opposing a prolonged government shutdown, particularly concerning the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and advocating for reforms at U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) [^]. His centrist position is underscored by his previous criticisms of political figures, and his district, Pennsylvania's 1st, notably went to the opposing presidential candidate, signifying a politically competitive constituency [^].
Fitzpatrick actively seeks bipartisan solutions for the DHS shutdown. He is actively pursuing bipartisan avenues to resolve the shutdown, including being part of a "centrist House duo" intending to introduce legislation aimed at ending the DHS shutdown and implementing ICE reforms [^]. As a co-chair of the House Problem Solvers Caucus, a group recognized for its bipartisan initiatives, Fitzpatrick has participated in discussions to achieve a compromise on the DHS shutdown, aligning with broader efforts by "moderate Republicans" to collaborate with Democrats on a resolution amid "GOP infighting" [^].
7. What White House Strategies Addressed the DHS Shutdown?
| Negotiation Offer | New White House offer made [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Negotiator | Border czar Tom Homan engaged centrist Democrats and Senators [^] |
| Blame Campaign | Official White House article blamed Democrats for shutdown [^] |
The White House employed a dual strategy to address the DHS shutdown, encompassing both active negotiation and a public relations campaign to assign blame. Regarding active negotiation and mediation, a "new White House offer" was presented, indicating a direct attempt to find a solution through compromise [^]. The White House also utilized its border czar, Tom Homan, to engage with specific Congressional groups. Homan met with centrist Democrats to discuss DHS funding, explicitly noted as "bypassing Schumer" to facilitate negotiations [^]. Furthermore, Homan held meetings with Senators as lawmakers sought a path to end the shutdown, demonstrating ongoing efforts to propose solutions [^].
Concurrently, the White House initiated a strong public relations campaign focused on assigning blame to the opposition party. This strategy was exemplified by an article published on the official White House website, titled "Democrats’ Reckless DHS Shutdown Hits Americans Hard as 100,000+ Workers Go Without Pay" [^]. The publication directly attributed the shutdown and its negative impacts to Democrats, using strong language to frame their actions as "reckless" and emphasizing the hardship faced by American workers. This clearly indicated a strategy to influence public opinion and direct accountability towards the Democratic party [^].
8. How Many Signatures Does DHS Funding Petition Need?
| Bill | H.R [^]. 7311, DHS appropriations for FY2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Current Signatures | 213 members [^] |
| Signatures Still Needed | 5 to reach threshold [^] |
A discharge petition to fund DHS needs five more signatures. As of March 18, 2026, Discharge Petition 2026031817 has accumulated 213 signatures in the U.S. House of Representatives [^]. This petition, sponsored by Rep. Rosa DeLauro, seeks to force a vote on H.R. 7311, which concerns Department of Homeland Security appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026 [^]. It is a Democratic initiative aimed at securing funding for essential agencies such as the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Coast Guard [^]. For the bill to advance from committee to the House floor, a discharge petition requires a total of 218 signatures, meaning an additional five signatures are currently needed [^].
Bipartisan support is the primary hurdle for the petition's success. The main obstacle preventing the petition from reaching the 218-signature threshold is the insufficient support from Republican members [^]. While the petition has received strong endorsement from New Democratic Coalition leadership, achieving bipartisan backing presents "enormous hurdles" [^]. For this Democratic-led effort to succeed, it requires several Republican members to sign the petition, which political analysis indicates is a significant challenge [^]. Specific Republican holdouts are not individually named; their collective lack of support is currently preventing the petition from advancing.
9. What Are the Most Pressing US 'Must-Pass' Legislative Deadlines?
| Immediate Must-Pass Deadline | DHS funding lapse for FY2026 (April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Debt Ceiling X-Date | Primarily 2025 projections, not within 60 days [^] |
| Other Key Legislation | No Farm Bill deadline in 60 days; FAA reauthorized in 2024 [^] |
The Department of Homeland Security funding lapse is the most critical deadline. As of April 2026, the primary "must-pass" legislative deadline identified is the resolution of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding lapse for Fiscal Year 2026. This lapse led to a government shutdown of DHS in April 2026, with news reports from April 14, 2026, detailing ongoing efforts to pass a funding bill and end the shutdown [^]. Some reports have characterized this funding lapse as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [^]. The necessity of funding a critical federal agency like DHS establishes its appropriations as a "must-pass" item, making it a potential vehicle to force a resolution within the next 60 days, approximately extending from mid-April to mid-June 2026.
Other significant legislative deadlines are not imminent within 60 days. The provided research does not indicate an approaching "X-date" for the debt ceiling within this timeframe. Analysis on the debt limit primarily projected "X-dates" for 2025, specifically March 2025 and June 2025 [^]. Similarly, the research does not specify a Farm Bill expiration or reauthorization deadline falling within the next 60 days. Furthermore, the FAA Reauthorization Act (H.R. 3935) was enacted into law in 2024, indicating that FAA reauthorization is not an outstanding legislative deadline for 2026 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
Last updated: April 15, 2026, 12:21 UTC
Market Prices in Longer DHS Shutdown as Congress Returns With No Deal
The prediction market for the duration of the 2026 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown repriced significantly for a longer stalemate on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. As the partial shutdown reac...
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The prediction market for the length of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown shifted significantly during Monday's session (April 13, 2026), with traders pricing in a shorter duration as the U.S. Hous...
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Shutdown Market Prices Longer Impasse as Congress Enters Recess
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Shutdown Market Implies Shorter Duration After GOP Funding Deal
The prediction market for the duration of the current U.S. government shutdown experienced a sharp, market-wide collapse on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, as traders drastically shortened their timelines f...
Last updated: April 15, 2026, 12:21 UTC
Shutdown Market Prices Longer Stalemate After House Rejects Senate Deal
Prediction markets tracking the length of the partial U.S. government shutdown repriced sharply on Saturday, March 28, 2026, signaling a strong consensus for a prolonged stalemate. The shift followed ...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 16 markets in this series
Outcomes: 16 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G55: YES (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G45: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G43: YES (Mar 29, 2026)
- KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G50: YES (Apr 05, 2026)
- KXGOVTSHUTLENGTH-26FEB07-G40: YES (Mar 26, 2026)
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