Yes
Market Model 25.0% 24.5%
Science and Technology Markets
Active Markets (19)
Earbuds/Headphones
Market Model 68.0% 65.5%
Clip-on device for clothing
Market Model 35.0% 32.0%
United States
Market Model 69.0% 59.9%
China
Market Model 37.0% 31.3%
xAI
Market Model 54.0% 53.5%
OpenAI
Market Model 61.0% 60.0%
At least 1000
Market Model 98.0% 25.0%
At least 5000
Market Model 44.0% 5.0%
Yes
Market Model 32.0% 31.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 28.0% 68.0%
Before 2030
Market Model 48.0% 78.0%
Anthropic
Market Model 49.0% 37.2%
Google
Market Model 15.0% 25.0%
Valar Atomics
Market Model 71.0% 3.0%
Atomic Alchemy
Market Model 60.0% 3.0%
Yes
Market Model 67.0% 46.5%
Above 10000
Market Model 23.0% 31.5%
Above 4000
Market Model 76.0% 76.0%
At least 1550 score
Market Model 40.0% 56.0%
At least 1575 score
Market Model 25.0% 31.5%
Yes
Market Model 24.0% 26.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 6.5%
Before 2028
Market Model 14.0% 12.5%
Yes
Market Model 19.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 58.0% 55.0%
Before 2028
Market Model 16.0% 2.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 6.0% 0.1%
Yes
Market Model 100.0% 99.5%
Claude
Market Model 41.0% 32.5%
ChatGPT
Market Model 20.0% 13.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2027? Yes refers to: Any psychedelic substance for medical use | 25.0% | 24.5% | Med | $89,594 | Ask |
| What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? Top outcome: Earbuds/Headphones | 68.0% | 65.5% | Med | $56,957 | Ask |
| Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon? Top outcome: United States | 69.0% | 59.9% | Med | $91,501 | Ask |
| Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? Top outcome: xAI | 54.0% | 53.5% | Med | $842,732 | Ask |
| What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term? Top outcome: At least 1000 | 98.0% | 25.0% | Med | $110,847 | Ask |
| Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 32.0% | 31.0% | Med | $52,761 | Ask |
| When will OpenAI achieve AGI? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 28.0% | 68.0% | Med | $571,972 | Ask |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Anthropic | 49.0% | 37.2% | Med | $216,897 | Ask |
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? Top outcome: Valar Atomics | 71.0% | 3.0% | Med | $85,077 | Ask |
| Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 67.0% | 46.5% | Med | $84,553 | Ask |
| Measles cases in 2026? Top outcome: Above 10000 | 23.0% | 31.5% | Med | $405,394 | Ask |
| AI capability growth before July? Top outcome: At least 1550 score | 40.0% | 56.0% | Med | $70,699 | Ask |
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? Yes refers to: Grants license | 24.0% | 26.5% | Med | $236,013 | Ask |
| NASA lands on the moon? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 7.0% | 6.5% | Med | $164,960 | Ask |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 19.0% | 19.5% | Med | $6,438,777 | Ask |
| Will a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 58.0% | 55.0% | Med | $73,763 | Ask |
| When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? Top outcome: Before 2028 | 16.0% | 2.0% | Med | $46,462 | Ask |
| When will xAI release Grok 4.2? Yes refers to: Before Apr 21, 2026 | 100.0% | 99.5% | Med | $18,528 | Ask |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? Top outcome: Claude | 41.0% | 32.5% | Med | $1,135,017 | Ask |
