How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/3 - 5/9)
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Trump signing above 0 executive orders, at 62.8% model vs 86.0% market. This divergence is driven by government records suggesting that no executive orders were signed between May 3 and May 9, 2026.
1. Executive Verdict
- Official government records indicate zero executive orders were signed between May 3-9.
- Early May 2026 political events could prompt a flurry of executive orders.
- Congressional legislative difficulties may lead to executive actions filling policy gaps.
- Trump signed more executive orders in his first term than Biden.
- Trump's administration signed 225 executive orders during 2025.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 86.0% | 62.8% | Official records indicate zero executive orders were signed between May 3 and May 9, 2026. |
| Above 2 | 32.0% | 6.8% | Official records indicate zero executive orders were signed between May 3 and May 9, 2026. |
| Above 1 | 70.0% | 44.6% | Official records indicate zero executive orders were signed between May 3 and May 9, 2026. |
Current Context
Three Executive Orders appeared in the Federal Register during the specified week. Federal Register publications indicate that at least three Trump Executive Orders were published between May 3 and May 9, 2026. Specifically, Executive Order 14402 and Executive Order 14403 were published on May 5, 2026 [^][^]. Additionally, Executive Order 14404 was published on May 7, 2026, although it was dated May 1, 2026 [^].
The exact number of Executive Orders signed this week is unclear. The available sources do not provide a definitive count strictly limited to those "signed between 5/3–5/9/2026." Instead, the information includes publication dates (May 5 and May 7) and Executive Order dates (May 1), meaning an precise "signed this week" total could vary depending on the specific counting methodology used [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market displayed a consistent upward trend, starting at a 66.0% probability and rising to a current price of 86.0%. The most significant price movement was a 10.0 percentage point spike on May 02, 2026, which saw the price jump from 66.0% to 76.0%. The provided context indicates a specific cause for this initial spike cannot be definitively identified. However, the market continued to climb, reaching 86.0% by May 07. This later increase coincided with the appearance of three Executive Orders in the Federal Register during the resolution week, specifically on May 5 and May 7, which appears to have reinforced trader confidence in a "Yes" resolution.
The initial price level of 66.0% acted as a firm support base from which the market never retreated. Trading volume was initially low but increased significantly around May 07, suggesting that market conviction grew stronger as news of the Federal Register publications became available. The overall price action reflects a market that began with a strong expectation that at least one Executive Order would be signed and became progressively more certain as evidence emerged. The current price of 86.0% indicates high market confidence, although it remains below the peak of 95.0%, perhaps reflecting some ambiguity noted in the context regarding the exact signing dates versus the publication dates of the orders.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 2
📉 May 07, 2026: 19.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 19.0 percentage point drop on May 7, 2026, was the publication of official government records indicating a low likelihood of Trump signing two or more Executive Orders during the target week. The Federal Register's May 5, 2026, issue listed Executive Orders as "of April 30, 2026," placing them outside the May 3-9 timeframe [^][^]. This official information, released two days before the price drop, appears to have led the market movement by revealing that no relevant executive orders had been signed. The absence of executive orders for the specified dates in the White House archive further supports this conclusion [^]. Social media was not a primary driver, as no relevant activity was identified in the provided research.
Outcome: Above 0
📈 May 02, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 66.0% to 76.0%
What happened: Based on the available web research, the primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 0" outcome on May 02, 2026, cannot be definitively identified. The Federal Register entries for May 5, 2026, listing Executive Orders 14402 and 14403, were signed on April 30, 2026, preceding the market's May 3-9 period [^][^][^]. This information does not support an increase in the "Above 0" outcome for the specified week, and no social media activity was found that would explain this market movement. Therefore, social media's role in this movement cannot be determined from the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to YES if President Trump signs more than two Executive Orders between May 3, 2026, and May 9, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified by the Federal Register, with an "Executive Order" strictly defined as a numbered, formally titled presidential directive that is signed, published, and has the force of law. The market closes by May 23, 2026, 11:59pm EDT, but may close and expire earlier if complete Federal Register data becomes available, with the signing date recorded in the Federal Register determining which period an order belongs to.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | $0.86 | $0.15 | 86% |
| Above 1 | $0.71 | $0.37 | 70% |
| Above 2 | $0.38 | $0.67 | 32% |
Market Discussion
The discussion among traders is sparse but reflects differing expectations for the number of Executive Orders Trump will sign this week. Some traders anticipate at least one EO, with one user noting that there were "planned to sign executive orders today." Conversely, another trader expects zero Executive Orders, citing that Trump "still didn't learn his lesson from last time." Market odds currently show a high probability (86%) of at least one EO, but less confidence for signing more than two (32%).
5. What political events or policy deadlines in early May 2026 could prompt a flurry of executive orders from President Trump?
| May Day Protests Date | May 1, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Government Shutdown End | April 30, 2026 [^][^] |
| Jobs Report Release | May 3, 2026 [^] |
Early May 2026 features several political events potentially prompting executive actions. May Day protests on May 1, 2026, addressing workers' rights, climate, and opposition to the President and his immigration policies, could lead to executive orders concerning public order or immigration enforcement [^]. Additionally, primary elections for Nebraska and West Virginia, scheduled for May 12, 2026, often encourage presidents to align actions with their political agenda, as exemplified by a previous executive order on "Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections" issued on March 31, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Recent executive orders, including sanctions on Cuba on May 1, 2026, and orders on retirement savings and federal contracting on April 30, 2026, further indicate the President's current policy priorities [^][^].
Key economic reports and policy deadlines also present opportunities for executive orders. Anticipated economic developments include the Jobs Report released on May 3, 2026 [^], and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on May 6-7, 2026 [^]. Furthermore, ongoing debates surrounding federal appropriations and Fiscal Year 2026 reconciliation, particularly after a partial government shutdown ended on April 30, 2026, could prompt executive orders to direct agency spending or priorities [^][^]. The Department of Education is expected to release proposed rules for a new student loan forgiveness plan in May 2026 [^], and the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) determined Adjustment of Status Filing Dates for May 2026 on April 14, 2026, both providing recurring opportunities for related executive actions [^].
6. How does Trump's average weekly rate of signing executive orders in 2026 compare to his first term and to President Biden's tenure?
| Donald Trump's First Term Executive Orders | 220 executive orders [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden's Single Term Executive Orders | 162 executive orders [^][^] |
| Average Weekly Rate Data | Not available for either administration [^][^][^][^] |
Donald Trump signed more executive orders in his first term than Joe Biden. During his first term, from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, Donald Trump issued 220 executive orders [^][^]. Subsequently, President Joe Biden signed 162 executive orders over his term, which spanned from January 20, 2021, to January 20, 2025 [^][^].
Specific weekly rates and future projections are not available in research. The provided research does not include the average weekly rate of executive order signings for either Donald Trump's first term or President Joe Biden's tenure [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, there is no information within the available data to determine or compare Trump's average weekly rate of signing executive orders in 2026 [^][^][^][^]. It is important to note that the number of executive orders can vary significantly between administrations and even within a single term. This analysis focuses exclusively on executive orders, omitting other presidential directives like memoranda or proclamations [^][^].
7. How has the legislative agenda in Congress for April and May 2026 created gaps that the Trump administration might fill with executive orders?
| House GOP legislative capacity | Reduced (late April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Federal Contracting EO Date | April 30, 2026 [^] |
| TrumpIRA.gov EO Date | April 30, 2026 [^] |
Congressional legislative difficulties in April 2026 created policy implementation gaps. In late April 2026, the U.S. Congress encountered significant legislative difficulties, with House GOP leaders reportedly facing a 'nightmare week'. Critical legislation, such as DHS funding, lacked the necessary votes for passage, suggesting a reduced capacity within the legislative branch for handling new or additional policy items during that timeframe [^]. This environment of legislative strain presented opportunities for executive branch action.
The Trump administration utilized executive orders to advance its policy agenda. Against this backdrop of legislative challenges, the Trump administration actively used executive orders to implement its policy goals. On April 30, 2026, President Trump issued Executive Order 14402, which focused on federal contracting by stipulating a default to fixed-price contracting [^]. In a related move, Executive Order 14403 was also issued on April 30, 2026, establishing TrumpIRA.gov, with its formal publication in the Federal Register occurring on May 5, 2026 [^]. These executive actions underscored the administration's capability to enact policy through executive decree, even amidst a challenging legislative environment [^].
8. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
During 2025, his administration signed 225 executive orders [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 24, 2026
- Closes: May 24, 2026
9. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Donald Trump began his second term as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, after winning the 2024 election [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: During 2025, his administration signed 225 executive orders [^] .
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 18 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEOWEEK-26MAY02-0: YES (May 05, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26APR25-0: NO (May 05, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26APR18-0: YES (Apr 23, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26APR11-0: NO (Apr 19, 2026)
- KXEOWEEK-26APR04-1: YES (Apr 10, 2026)
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