Will Trump be impeached?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Trump to be impeached before Jan 1, 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- President Trump's May 2026 approval ratings appear historically low (34-37%).
- A decisive Democratic win in 2026 midterms may fuel impeachment momentum.
- H.Res.939, introduced December 10, 2025, outlines presidential power abuse charges.
- H.Res.939 articles do not include specific Iran conflict allegations.
- Congressional political composition shifts could change market probabilities.
- Bipartisan support is generally considered essential for impeachment proceedings to advance.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.9% | Low approval ratings and potential 2026 Democratic midterm victory suggest an impeachment pathway. |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.4% | 8.5% | Low approval ratings and potential 2026 Democratic midterm victory suggest an impeachment pathway. |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 34.0% | 29.5% | Low approval ratings and potential 2026 Democratic midterm victory suggest an impeachment pathway. |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 59.0% | 52.2% | Low approval ratings and potential 2026 Democratic midterm victory suggest an impeachment pathway. |
Current Context
Prediction markets currently assign a 61% probability to President Donald Trump's impeachment before January 1, 2028, as of May 2026 [^] . Formal impeachment efforts have materialized, including articles introduced in the 119th Congress, such as H.Res.939 [^][^]. Critics cite alleged abuses of power, rhetoric concerning the Iran conflict, and threats against political opponents and the judiciary as primary grounds for these actions [^][^]. However, despite these elevated impeachment odds, political analysts emphasize that formal removal from office would necessitate a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate, making conviction highly unlikely under the prevailing political conditions [^].
President Trump's approval ratings have reached historic lows, with disapproval around 63% as of May 2026, placing considerable political pressure and anxiety within the Republican party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [^] [^] . This domestic political volatility and administrative criticism are further fueled by the administration's ongoing focus on a conflict with Iran [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is characterized by a stable, sideways trend within an extremely narrow and low-probability range of 0.1% to 1.0%. The price has slightly decreased from a starting point of 0.4% to a current level of 0.2%, indicating that traders consistently view the prospect of impeachment before 2028 as highly improbable. This market's sentiment, pricing the event as a near-zero probability, stands in stark contrast to the provided context, which reports that some prediction markets assign a probability as high as 61%. This major divergence suggests that participants in this specific market are either discounting the effectiveness of current political actions or are trading based on different interpretations of the market's resolution criteria.
Despite the news that formal impeachment efforts, such as H.Res.939, have been introduced in Congress, the market price did not increase. Instead, it fell from 0.4% to 0.2% and has since found stability at that lower level. This price action suggests traders are largely unfazed by these developments. Volume patterns support this interpretation, as trading activity increased as the price settled at 0.2%, indicating growing market participation and conviction at this low valuation. The price points of 0.1% and 1.0% appear to be acting as firm support and resistance levels, respectively, reinforcing the view that the market does not expect any significant change in probability.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the President of the United States is impeached before January 1, 2028. If impeachment does not occur by this date, the market resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using the Library of Congress, and the market closes either upon the event's occurrence or by January 1, 2028, at 10:00 AM EST. Insider trading by individuals with material non-public information or employment by source agencies is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.09 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.34 | $0.67 | 34% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0.60 | $0.41 | 59% |
Market Discussion
Traders on Kalshi currently assign a 59% chance of Donald Trump being impeached before January 1, 2028, with significantly lower odds for nearer-term dates. Arguments for "Yes" often cite the potential for a Democratic House majority to initiate proceedings, while "No" positions emphasize the high hurdle of Senate conviction or Trump's political alliances. A key point of discussion also revolves around whether "impeached" in the market rules refers to the House vote or Senate conviction.
4. What outcome in the 2026 midterm elections would create the political momentum for a successful House impeachment vote against President Trump before 2028?
| Political Momentum Driver | Decisive Democratic win in 2026 midterm elections [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| House Impeachment Vote Requirement | Simple majority of members present and voting [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Senate Conviction Vote Requirement | Two-thirds majority vote [^][^][^][^][^] |
A decisive Democratic win in the 2026 midterm elections would likely generate political momentum for a successful House impeachment vote against President Trump before 2028 [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . Historically, midterm elections often function as a referendum on the sitting president, frequently resulting in the president's party losing congressional seats and a shift in power dynamics [^][^][^][^]. A strong Democratic performance in 2026 could empower party leadership and members to pursue impeachment proceedings, provided they identify justifiable grounds such as "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors," as defined by the Constitution [^][^][^][^][^].
A simple House majority is needed for impeachment. For a successful impeachment vote in the House of Representatives, a simple majority of members present and voting is constitutionally required [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Achieving a significant majority would grant Democrats control over all House committees, including the House Judiciary Committee, which typically oversees impeachment investigations [^]. Past impeachment efforts against President Trump illustrated that votes in the House were largely cast along party lines [^]. It is important to distinguish that while the House can impeach with a simple majority, conviction and subsequent removal from office necessitate a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate [^][^][^][^][^].
5. How do President Trump's May 2026 approval ratings compare with those of past presidents, like Nixon and Clinton, who faced impeachment proceedings?
| Trump May 2026 Approval | 34-37% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Nixon Low Impeachment Approval | 23-24% by early 1974 [^][^] |
| Clinton High Impeachment Approval | 71% in Dec 1998 [^] |
President Trump's May 2026 approval ratings reached a significant low. His approval ratings during this period ranged from 34% to 37%, with specific polls reporting 37% (New York Times/Siena, Strength In Numbers/Verasight) and 34% (Pew Research Center) [^][^][^]. These figures represent the lowest of his second term and were noted as lower than any approval rating President Joe Biden ever received [^].
Unlike Trump, President Clinton's approval ratings rose during his impeachment. While facing impeachment proceedings, President Clinton saw his approval rating increase to 71% in January 1998 and again to 71% in mid-December 1998, following the House vote to impeach him [^]. His mean job approval rating for 1998 was 63.8%, and his approval even reached 73% after the proceedings concluded [^][^][^].
Trump's approval ratings mirror President Nixon's decline during his impeachment. Nixon's approval ratings dropped significantly from 67% in January 1973 to 30% by October 1973 [^]. His ratings further decreased to 27% in late October 1973, remained in the mid-20s throughout early 1974, hit a low of 23-24% by January and April 1974, and stood at 24% in mid-July 1974, shortly before his resignation [^][^][^].
6. How do the impeachment charges outlined in H.Res.939 compare to those from the 2019 and 2021 proceedings against Donald Trump?
| H.Res.939 Impeachment Charges | Abuse of presidential power (calling for execution of Members of Congress, threatening federal judges) (Dec 10, 2025) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2019 Impeachment Charges | Abuse of power (Ukraine-related), Obstruction of Congress (Dec 18, 2019) [^][^][^] |
| 2021 Impeachment Charge | Incitement of insurrection [^][^][^] |
H.Res.939 outlines distinct impeachment charges of presidential power abuse. Introduced on December 10, 2025, this resolution details two articles of impeachment under "abuse of presidential power." These charges specifically allege calling for the execution of Members of Congress and threatening or intimidating federal judges, framed as violations of separation of powers and judicial independence [^][^][^].
The 2019 impeachment included abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The 2019 impeachment resolution, adopted on December 18, 2019, contained two articles. Article I outlined an abuse-of-power theory concerning Ukraine’s interference efforts, involving solicitation and pressure for investigations tied to election benefit [^][^][^]. Article II detailed an obstruction-of-Congress theory, citing noncompliance with subpoenas and information requests during that inquiry [^][^][^].
The 2021 impeachment charged incitement of insurrection, differing from H.Res.939. The House adopted a single article in 2021 charging “incitement of insurrection,” which described false fraud claims and statements made before January 6, said to encourage and foreseeably result in lawless action at the Capitol [^][^][^]. Therefore, while an "abuse of power" charge was present in 2019, the specific actions cited in H.Res.939 regarding federal judges and Members of Congress are distinct from both the Ukraine-related charges of 2019 and the “incitement of insurrection” charge from 2021 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. What specific executive actions concerning the Iran conflict form the core allegations in the H.Res.939 impeachment articles?
| H.Res.939 Introduction Date | December 10, 2025 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Articles of Impeachment in H.Res.939 | Two [^][^] |
| Impeachment Probability by Jan 1, 2028 | 61% (as of May 2026) [^] |
H.Res.939 articles do not include specific Iran conflict allegations. Introduced on December 10, 2025, H.Res.939 presents two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump [^][^]. The resolution's core allegations center on the abuse of presidential power, specifically citing calls for the execution of Members of Congress and intimidation of federal judges [^][^]. These actions are described as violations of the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary, with the resolution focusing exclusively on this conduct concerning Congress and the federal judiciary [^][^]. There are no specific allegations related to the conflict with Iran within H.Res.939 [^][^].
Broader concerns about the Iran conflict influence impeachment discussions. The US-Iran conflict, which commenced on February 28, 2026, has generated significant congressional opposition and led to discussions regarding potential impeachment within prediction markets [^][^][^]. However, this general scrutiny is distinct from the specific articles detailed in H.Res.939 [^][^][^]. As of May 2026, prediction markets indicate an approximate 61% chance of President Trump being impeached before January 1, 2028 [^]. This probability is largely influenced by the overall political environment surrounding the Iran conflict and other executive actions [^].
8. What does the co-sponsorship of H.Res.939 indicate about the current level of support for impeachment within the 119th Congress?
| Votes to table H.Res.939 | 237 "Yea" votes [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Votes against tabling H.Res.939 | 140 "Nay" votes [^][^][^][^] |
| Democratic sponsors of H.Res.939 | 3 [^][^][^][^] |
H.Res.939 introduced impeachment articles against the president in late 2025. This resolution, sponsored by Representative Al Green (D-TX) on December 10, 2025, aimed to impeach the president [^]. It was co-sponsored by two additional Democratic lawmakers, André Carson and Nikema Williams [^][^][^][^]. The resolution included two articles of impeachment: the first alleged abuse of presidential power by calling for the execution of six Democratic lawmakers, and the second accused the president of attempting to intimidate federal judges [^][^][^].
A House vote indicated limited support for advancing impeachment proceedings. A motion to table H.Res.939, which was a vote against advancing the impeachment articles, passed with 237 "Yea" votes [^][^][^][^]. This outcome demonstrated that a majority of the House opposed moving forward with impeachment at that time [^][^][^]. Conversely, 140 members voted "Nay" on the motion to table, signaling their support for advancing the impeachment resolution, and 47 members voted "Present" [^][^][^][^]. Ultimately, the resolution failed to advance, meaning the impeachment effort was unsuccessful [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key catalysts that could change market probability include a shift in the political composition of Congress, particularly the House and Senate, to one that is less favorable to the President [^] . A lack of bipartisan support for impeachment proceedings is also generally considered essential for an impeachment to move forward [^].
Political prediction markets continuously update as traders respond to new information, such as debates, fundraising reports, scandals, voter sentiment, and legal developments, adjusting odds in real time [^] [^] [^] . The political landscape, including which party controls the House and Senate, is a critical factor in any potential impeachment proceedings [^][^]. The 2028 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028 [^][^][^][^][^], and midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 01, 2026
- Closes: January 01, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Key catalysts that could change market probability include a shift in the political composition of Congress, particularly the House and Senate, to one that is less favorable to the President [^] .
- Trigger: A lack of bipartisan support for impeachment proceedings is also generally considered essential for an impeachment to move forward [^] .
- Trigger: Political prediction markets continuously update as traders respond to new information, such as debates, fundraising reports, scandals, voter sentiment, and legal developments, adjusting odds in real time [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The political landscape, including which party controls the House and Senate, is a critical factor in any potential impeachment proceedings [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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