Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Trump to be impeached before Jan 1, 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Democrats gaining House control in 2026 may increase impeachment likelihood.
  • Public support for a House impeachment vote appears significant at 55%.
  • The 2026 midterm election outcome directly impacts any 2027 impeachment efforts.
  • House Republican leadership firmly opposes current Democratic-led impeachment efforts.
  • Prediction markets indicate a high likelihood of impeachment before 2028.
  • Congressional Democrats pursued legislative actions, including a second impeachment.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Jun 1, 2026 0.9% 1.0% Likely Democratic House control by 2026 and 55% public support suggest increased impeachment possibility.
Before Jan 1, 2027 9.8% 10.2% Likely Democratic House control by 2026 and 55% public support suggest increased impeachment possibility.
Before Mar 1, 2027 40.0% 38.4% Likely Democratic House control by 2026 and 55% public support suggest increased impeachment possibility.
Before Jan 1, 2028 67.0% 64.1% Likely Democratic House control by 2026 and 55% public support suggest increased impeachment possibility.

Current Context

Prediction markets currently indicate differing probabilities for Donald Trump's impeachment, defined by the House's passage of impeachment articles rather than Senate conviction. Reports based on a market indicate the chance of impeachment before January 1, 2028, at approximately 66.6% to 68% [^][^]. In contrast, a separate market tracking impeachment by the end of 2026 showed a crowd probability of about 13% at the time of reporting [^][^].
Political discussions and legislative efforts regarding impeachment continue amidst congressional control. PBS reported in April 2026 on Democrats expressing a bolder stance regarding removing Trump following his threats concerning Iran, though the article also highlighted the inherent difficulty of impeachment as long as Republicans maintain control of Congress. The discussion also includes political strategies concerning potential 25th Amendment legislation and the overall impeachment posture [^]. Furthermore, specific impeachment efforts, such as House Resolution 939 introduced in December 2025, have been brought forward in the 119th Congress. These resolutions signify political intent but do not constitute passed impeachment legislation at this time [^][^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
The price for this market has remained in a narrow, sideways trading range between 0.4% and 3.0%, indicating a stable consensus among its participants. After opening at a 2.2% probability, the price declined to its current level of approximately 0.9%. This price action establishes an informal support level near the 0.4% low and a resistance point around the 3.0% high. Total volume is substantial, but daily volume varies, with a notable spike of 200 contracts traded on May 8 at the 0.9% price point. This surge in volume at a low price level suggests market conviction that the probability of the event occurring is very low.
This market's price action indicates a sentiment that is distinctly different from what is described in the provided news context. While news reports citing separate markets suggest a high probability (around 66-68%) for the same event and resolution timeframe, this chart shows a persistent and stable probability of less than 3%. The absence of any significant price spikes or upward momentum suggests that traders in this specific market are not reacting to the developments that may be influencing prices in other venues. The chart indicates that this pool of traders has consistently assessed the likelihood of impeachment as very low, a sentiment that has held steady despite reports of higher probabilities elsewhere.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 29.0% to 38.0%

Outcome: Before Mar 1, 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point price spike on April 25, 2026, was the reporting of a new poll and associated market analysis. A poll conducted from April 10–14, 2026, found 55% support for the House voting to impeach Trump, with notable backing from Republicans and Trump 2024 voters [^][^][^]. This news coincided with prediction-market reporting on April 25, 2026, which attributed the overall substantial rise in impeachment odds largely to expectations of Democrats potentially regaining House control [^]. Social media activity was largely irrelevant based on the available information.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the President of the United States is impeached before March 1, 2027. If the impeachment does not occur by March 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST, the market resolves to "No." The outcome is verified by the Library of Congress, and trading is prohibited for individuals with material non-public information or those employed by source agencies.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Jun 1, 2026 $0.01 $0.99 1%
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.10 $0.91 10%
Before Mar 1, 2027 $0.41 $0.60 40%
Before Jan 1, 2028 $0.67 $0.35 67%

Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing the likelihood of Donald Trump's impeachment, with probabilities significantly higher for later deadlines (e.g., 67% before Jan 1, 2028). A central theme in arguments for "Yes" is the critical distinction between impeachment (requiring a House majority) and conviction (requiring a Senate 2/3 vote), with many noting the market only asks about impeachment, which is seen as more plausible if Democrats gain control of the House. Arguments for "No" range from a general belief that impeachment won't happen or won't "stick" (i.e., lead to conviction), to specific concerns about the feasibility of impeachment before a new Congress is sworn in early 2027.

5. How Might the Outcome of the 2026 Midterm Elections Directly Influence the Likelihood and Timing of a House Impeachment Vote in 2027?

Primary Influence2026 midterm elections directly influence the likelihood and timing of a 2027 House impeachment vote [^][^][^]
Democratic Control ImpactRegaining House control in 2026 increases probability of a House impeachment vote in 2027 [^][^]
Impeachment Market ConditionResolution requires a simple-majority House vote passing impeachment articles [^]
Control of the House after 2026 directly impacts 2027 impeachment. The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections is widely regarded as a direct determinant for the likelihood and timing of a House impeachment vote in 2027, primarily by establishing which political party controls the House [^][^][^]. Should Democrats secure control of the House in the 2026 midterms, the probability of a House impeachment vote occurring in 2027 is expected to increase, consistently influencing both the chances and potential timeline of such a vote [^][^][^][^].
Market sentiment and political figures tie midterms to impeachment. Expectations surrounding the 2026 midterm election results are seen as critical for determining House control and the possibility of impeachment votes in 2027, largely attributing the surge in contract prices within a "Will Trump be impeached" market to these forecasts [^][^][^]. House Speaker Mike Johnson explicitly linked these events, stating that Democrats would pursue impeachment if they regain the House in the 2026 midterms [^]. Furthermore, a Reuters report indicates that Trump himself conveyed to House Republicans that a failure to win the midterms would lead to his impeachment, thereby directly tying the election outcome to the likelihood of impeachment in the subsequent Congress [^].
A simple House majority can pass articles of impeachment. A related impeachment market specifies that a resolution requires only a simple-majority vote in the House to pass articles of impeachment, without necessitating Senate conviction or removal [^]. This procedural detail underscores why control of the House after 2026 is considered a pivotal factor in whether an impeachment vote can take place in 2027 [^].

6. What is the Official Stance and Counter-Argument from House Republican Leadership Against Current Impeachment Efforts?

Current Impeachment StatusExpected to be blocked by House Republican leadership [^]
Future Impeachment OutlookRenewed efforts if Democrats take House in 2026 [^][^]
Current House MajorityRepublicans hold a narrow 218-214 majority [^][^][^][^]
House Republican leadership firmly opposes current Democratic-led impeachment efforts against Donald Trump. These initiatives are widely viewed by Republicans as partisan attacks rather than legitimate constitutional processes [^][^]. They assert that allegations against Trump often lack sufficient evidence of "corrupt intent" or do not meet the criteria for impeachable offenses [^]. Due to the narrow Republican majority in the House (218-214), any impeachment efforts initiated by Democrats are highly unlikely to succeed [^][^][^][^].
Future Democratic control could reignite impeachment attempts, Speaker Mike Johnson warns. He cautioned that if Democrats were to gain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections, renewed efforts to impeach Trump would likely follow, describing such a scenario as "absolute chaos" [^][^]. Historically, Republican counter-arguments to impeachment processes have consistently highlighted issues of speed, bias, and a perceived lack of due process. These criticisms often include concerns about the absence of a full House vote to authorize inquiries or issues regarding closed-door testimonies [^][^].

7. How Do the Stated Grounds for Impeachment in the 119th Congress Compare to the Articles Passed Against Trump in 2019 and 2021?

2019 Impeachment FocusUkraine actions and Obstruction of Congress [^][^][^]
2021 Impeachment FocusIncitement related to January 6th events [^][^][^]
119th Congress Proposed ScopeSignificantly broader, including treason, election interference, and abuse of pardon power [^][^][^][^][^][^]
Trump's impeachments in 2019 and 2021 targeted specific allegations. The House of Representatives passed two articles of impeachment in 2019, primarily concerning his actions related to Ukraine, which allegedly involved pressuring Ukraine by withholding military aid. A second article accused him of Obstruction of Congress for defying House subpoenas during the inquiry [^][^][^]. The 2021 impeachment article followed the events of January 6th, alleging he urged supporters to march on the Capitol and encouraged lawless action that interfered with Congress's constitutional duties [^][^][^].
The 119th Congress proposed a significantly broader range of impeachment grounds. These included allegations such as abuse of pardon power, usurpation of war powers, domestic military deployment, threats against government officials, and treason [^][^][^]. Other proposed grounds encompassed illegal detentions, Emoluments Clause violations, general obstruction of justice, election interference, incitement and discrimination, threats to international peace, weaponization of law enforcement, undermining press freedom, humanitarian concerns, refusing to acknowledge foreign interference, expressing willingness to accept foreign assistance to win reelection, and spreading disinformation about voter fraud [^][^][^].
Despite proposals, resolutions in the 119th Congress ultimately did not advance. Resolutions introduced by Al Green in June and December 2025 during the 119th Congress, which contained some of these articles, were ultimately tabled by the House, meaning they did not progress further [^][^][^].

8. What is the Trend in Co-Sponsorship for Key Impeachment Resolutions like H.Res. 939 in the 119th Congress?

H.Res. 939 IntroductionDecember 10, 2025 (by Representative Al Green) [^][^][^][^][^]
Motion to Table DateDecember 11, 2025 [^][^]
Motion to Table Vote237 to 140 [^][^]
Representative Al Green introduced H.Res. 939, an impeachment resolution against Donald Trump. On December 10, 2025, Representative Al Green of Texas introduced H.Res. 939, an impeachment resolution targeting Donald Trump [^][^][^][^][^]. The resolution specifically accused Trump of high crimes and misdemeanors, detailing allegations of calls for the execution of Members of Congress and the intimidation of federal judges as abuses of presidential power [^][^][^].
The House quickly tabled H.Res. 939, despite rising impeachment market odds. The measure was addressed rapidly by the House, with a motion to table the resolution passing on December 11, 2025, by a vote of 237 to 140 [^][^]. While some Democratic members opposed this action, House Democratic leadership issued a statement indicating a "present" vote on the motion, explaining a focus on other legislative priorities and a comprehensive investigative process for impeachment [^][^]. The available research does not provide specific information on the trend in co-sponsorship for H.Res. 939. However, prediction market likelihoods for Trump's impeachment showed a notable increase from November 2025 to March-April 2026 [^][^][^].

9. What Public Statements and Legislative Actions by Congressional Democrats Underpin the High Market-Implied Odds of Impeachment?

First Impeachment DateJanuary 13, 2021 [^][^][^]
Number of Impeachments for TrumpTwice [^][^]
Latest Articles of Impeachment IntroducedApril 2026 [^]
Congressional Democrats pursued legislative actions, including a second impeachment, against Donald Trump. The House of Representatives impeached Donald Trump on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" following the Capitol attack [^][^][^]. This action marked him as the sole U.S. president to be impeached twice, despite his subsequent acquittal by the Senate in February 2021 [^][^]. Following this, further attempts to introduce articles of impeachment persisted, notably by Representative Ilhan Omar and others in January 2021 [^], Representative Green in December 2025 and April 2026 [^][^][^], and Representative John Larson who filed 13 articles in April 2026, citing "criminal lawlessness" [^][^].
Democrats also frequently issued public statements advocating for Trump's removal. Beyond formal legislative efforts, numerous Democratic lawmakers publicly called for Trump's impeachment or the invocation of the 25th Amendment. Following an attack in January 2026, Representatives Delia Ramirez, Maxine Waters, Jared Huffman, and Dan Goldman publicly demanded his removal, citing "war crimes" [^]. Senator Ed Markey also endorsed any method for removal, including the 25th Amendment or impeachment, emphasizing concerns about his control over nuclear weapons [^]. Prominent figures such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also demanded his removal, with a broad base of over 85 House and Senate Democrats supporting calls for impeachment or the 25th Amendment [^][^][^].

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction markets currently indicate a high probability of impeachment. Kalshi shows a 72% chance of Trump impeachment before Jan 1 2028 as of Apr 2026, with over $1.76M in volume [^][^][^]. Polymarket indicates a 76% "Yes" for impeachment before his term ends on Jan 20 2029 [^].
The 2026 Midterms on Nov 3 could be a significant factor, with markets suggesting a 71-85% likelihood of Democrats taking the House [^] [^] [^] . Despite the probabilities for impeachment, the odds of removal from office, which requires a 2/3 Senate vote, are lower, ranging from 21-27% [^][^][^]. Congressional actions have included H.Res.939 being tabled in Dec 2025 with a vote of 237-140 [^], and H.Res.353 being introduced in Apr 2025 [^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 01, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2028

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Prediction markets currently indicate a high probability of impeachment.
  • Trigger: Kalshi shows a 72% chance of Trump impeachment before Jan 1 2028 as of Apr 2026, with over $1.76M in volume [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: Polymarket indicates a 76% "Yes" for impeachment before his term ends on Jan 20 2029 [^] .
  • Trigger: The 2026 Midterms on Nov 3 could be a significant factor, with markets suggesting a 71-85% likelihood of Democrats taking the House [^] [^] [^] .

13. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.