Will Trump be impeached?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Trump to be impeached before Jan 1, 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Democrats strongly projected to regain House control by 2026.
- Project 2025 policies contain identified potential impeachable offenses.
- Politicizing Department of Justice presents high impeachment risk.
- Problem Solvers Caucus members represent electorally competitive swing districts.
- Widespread political fatigue is present, but not against investigations.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 1.1% | 1.2% | House control shifts necessary for impeachment are not expected by this date. |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11.0% | 11.4% | Democrats may regain House control by 2026, viewing Project 2025 policies as impeachable. |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 43.0% | 41.1% | Democrats may regain House control by 2026, viewing Project 2025 policies as impeachable. |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 63.0% | 60.1% | Democrats may regain House control by 2026, viewing Project 2025 policies as impeachable. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market shows a consistent and strong belief that the event is unlikely to occur. The price has been trading in a very narrow, sideways range between 1.0% and 3.5% for its entire history, indicating a stable consensus among traders. The market opened at 2.4% and is currently priced at 1.1%, suggesting a slight negative drift but no major change in outlook. The price floor, or support level, appears firmly established at 1.0%, while the ceiling, or resistance, is at 3.5%. These levels have effectively contained all price action, showing that no news or events have been significant enough to push the probability outside this low-conviction band.
While the overall trend is flat, there have been minor fluctuations within the range, such as the move from 2.8% down to 1.1% in late April 2026. As there is no additional context available regarding news or developments during that period, the specific cause for this price movement cannot be determined from the provided data. The total volume of over 184,000 contracts suggests a reasonable level of liquidity and trader participation. However, the volume accompanying the recent price drop was relatively light, which can sometimes indicate that a move is not supported by strong market-wide conviction.
Overall, the chart reflects a persistent market sentiment that a Trump impeachment before 2028 is a low-probability outcome. The inability of the price to break out of its tight, sub-4% range signals that traders have not seen any credible catalyst to change their long-held assessment. The current price near the historical low of 1.0% reinforces the market's bearish outlook on the "YES" contract.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 25, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: Before Mar 1, 2027
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to Yes if the President of the United States is impeached before March 1, 2027, and to No if impeachment does not occur by that date. The outcome will be verified using the Library of Congress (congress.gov). The market will close by March 1, 2027, at 10:00 am EST if the event has not already occurred, and trading is prohibited for individuals employed by Source Agencies or holding material non-public information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.44 | $0.57 | 43% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0.64 | $0.37 | 63% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion for "Will Trump be impeached?" is significantly shaped by the distinction between impeachment by the House and conviction (removal) by the Senate, with many traders emphasizing that the market only requires the former. While some participants firmly believe Trump will not be impeached and see "No" as a secure bet, others argue that impeachment alone is "VERY likely," especially if Democrats gain a House majority and perceive a political advantage. Arguments for a "Yes" also include speculative theories regarding internal Republican maneuvering or external pressures, while "No" arguments generally reflect skepticism about the actual removal of the president.
5. What are the projections for U.S. House control in 2026?
| 2024 House Majority | Republicans secured majority with at least 218 seats (AP News [^], CNN Politics [^], Ballotpedia [^], NBC News [^]) |
|---|---|
| Cook Political Report 2026 Forecast | Identified a "D Majority Path" with 12 toss-up seats (Cook Political Report [^], 270toWin [^]) |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026 Forecast | Strong chance for Democrats to take back the House, predicting they will win control (Sabato's Crystal Ball [^], [^]) |
Republicans secured control of the House of Representatives following the 2024 elections. The GOP attained a majority with at least 218 seats, a fact reported by AP News, CNN Politics, Ballotpedia, and NBC News [^]. While Democrats currently form the minority, the available research does not explicitly provide a consensus forecast for their exact seat margin in the 2024 outcome.
Forecasts suggest Democrats have a favorable outlook for the 2026 House elections. The Cook Political Report, as of April 2026, identifies a "D Majority Path" and points to 12 toss-up seats, indicating a potential for Democrats to retake the House [^]. This assessment is also summarized by 270toWin [^].
Sabato's Crystal Ball also projects Democrats could retake the House in 2026. Their analyses indicate a strong chance for Democrats to secure House control, describing them as "favored on what starts as a small battlefield" [^]. However, neither the Cook Political Report nor Sabato's Crystal Ball provides a specific consensus forecast for an exact Democratic seat margin for the 2026 elections.
6. Which Project 2025 Policies Could Lead to Impeachable Offenses?
| DOJ Restructuring Risk | Potential for political interference and reorientation [^] |
|---|---|
| Mass Deportation Plans | Involving military/National Guard via Insurrection Act [^] |
| Impeachment Grounds | Abuse of power, obstruction, undermining institutions [^] |
Politicization of the Department of Justice poses a high impeachment risk. Plans outlined in Project 2025 for a significant overhaul of the federal criminal justice system, which critics argue could result in politically motivated purges within the Department of Justice (DOJ), present a substantial concern [^]. Such actions, especially if officials are removed based on political loyalty rather than merit, or if the DOJ is directed to target political adversaries or shield allies, could be construed as an abuse of power. The Stanford Law Review has previously identified executive branch attacks on January 6 prosecutors as a "notable case of democratic backsliding," indicating how similar actions might be interpreted as undermining democratic norms [^].
Mass deportations using executive power risk charges of high crimes. Proposed plans for mass deportations, which include the potential invocation of the Insurrection Act and deployment of the military or National Guard, represent another area of significant risk for being framed as impeachable offenses [^]. While some legal analyses suggest that the use of the military for deportations might withstand certain legal challenges [^], the overall scale, proposed methods, and specific application of the Insurrection Act could face intense constitutional scrutiny [^]. Critics, including organizations like the American Immigration Council, have described mass deportations as "attacks on immigrants, democracy, and America," suggesting that such actions could be perceived as an overreach of executive authority, bypassing due process, and undermining civilian control over domestic law enforcement functions [^]. This could be framed as a systemic disregard for constitutional norms and civil liberties, thereby increasing the likelihood of being considered an impeachable offense.
7. What are Problem Solvers Caucus members' impeachment stances?
| Competitive Democratic Districts (PVI) | MN-02 (D+2), NJ-05 (D+4), NV-03 (D+2), NH-01 (D+2), MI-07 (R+2), VA-07 (D+2) [^] |
|---|---|
| Cook PVI Range for Analysis | R+2 to D+4 [^] |
| Impeachment Stances (Dems) | Not available in research [^] |
Several Democratic Problem Solvers represent electorally competitive, swing-factor districts. The Problem Solvers Caucus includes multiple Democratic members whose districts fall within a Cook Partisan Voter Index (PVI) range of R+2 to D+4, indicating their electorally competitive nature [^]. These key members and their districts include Angie Craig (Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District, D+2), Josh Gottheimer (New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, D+4), Susie Lee (Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, D+2), Chris Pappas (New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, D+2), Elissa Slotkin (Michigan's 7th Congressional District, R+2), and Abigail Spanberger (Virginia's 7th Congressional District, D+2) [^]. The PVI serves to categorize districts by their partisan lean relative to the national average, underscoring their significance for bipartisan initiatives and potential congressional control [^].
No public statements exist from these members regarding impeachment. Despite identifying these critical Democratic members from competitive districts, the available web research, which details caucus membership and district demographics, does not contain any publicly stated positions from these individuals concerning a potential third impeachment of former President Donald Trump [^]. Consequently, while the members whose votes could represent a pivotal swing factor have been identified based on their district's PVI, their current stances on this specific hypothetical political action are not found within the provided sources.
8. Is Political Fatigue Affecting Independent Voters in Swing States?
| Political News Fatigue | 62-65% of Americans limit political news (AP-NORC 2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Independent Voter Share | 45% of U.S. adults (January 2024) [^] |
| Trump Approval (Independents) | 37% (April 2024) [^] |
Widespread political fatigue exists, but not a specific trend against investigations. Polling data from 2023 indicates that a significant majority of Americans, consistently between 62% and 65%, report needing to limit political news consumption and feeling worn out by it, according to AP-NORC polls [^]. Despite this high level of general political fatigue, available research does not show a strong escalating negative trend specifically against political investigations or "impeachment fatigue" among independent voters in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan since January 2021 [^].
Independent voters are growing and impacting political perceptions. The percentage of U.S. adults identifying as political independents reached a record high of 45% in January 2024 [^]. This demographic has played a crucial role in shifting political perceptions, notably contributing to a decline in former President Donald Trump's approval rating to a second-term low of 37% in April 2024, representing a 7-point drop among independents [^].
Data doesn't confirm a direct negative trend against investigations. While the decline in Trump's approval among independents suggests broader dissatisfaction, it does not directly confirm a "strong negative trend" against political investigations themselves. The provided data does not specifically track public opinion on the frequency or necessity of political investigations among independent voters in the specified swing states, making it difficult to definitively assess a direct link or quantify potential political costs for Democrats based solely on this information.
9. What Is the Average Duration of a House Impeachment Vote?
| Average Impeachment Duration (House Vote) | 79 days (approximately) [^] |
|---|---|
| Clinton Impeachment Duration | 101 days [^] |
| Trump II Impeachment Duration | 7 days [^] |
Modern impeachment proceedings average 79 days from event to House vote. For the three modern impeachment proceedings that reached a full House vote, the average duration from the catalyzing event to the vote was approximately 79 days. Richard Nixon's impeachment inquiry is not included in this specific duration calculation because he resigned before the House could consider articles of impeachment. This average is derived from Bill Clinton's impeachment, which spanned 101 days; Donald Trump's first impeachment, lasting 128 days; and his second impeachment, completed in a rapid 7 days.
Each impeachment had distinct catalyzing events and timelines. President Bill Clinton's impeachment process began with the submission of the Starr Report to the House of Representatives on September 9, 1998 [^], culminating in a House vote to impeach him on December 19, 1998 [^]. For President Donald Trump's first impeachment, the whistleblower complaint detailing concerns about his July 25, 2019, call with Ukraine's President Zelensky served as the catalyzing event on August 12, 2019 [^]. The House voted to impeach him on December 18, 2019 [^]. The second impeachment of President Trump followed the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol as its catalyzing event [^], with the House of Representatives voting to impeach him swiftly on January 13, 2021 [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 01, 2026
- Closes: January 01, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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