How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Trump's approval rating will get below 40% before 2027, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Reuters/Ipsos reported Trump's approval at 34% by early May 2026.
- Multiple high-quality polls showed 34-37% approval by May 2026.
- Ongoing economic concerns and foreign policy issues likely drove declines.
- Widespread disapproval of the economy, inflation, and gas prices impacted support.
- Trump's net approval among independent voters saw significant decline through May 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 36% | 58.0% | 59.2% | YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos polls reported approval at 34-35% by May 2026, driven by economic concerns. |
| Below 33% | 23.0% | 25.8% | Reuters/Ipsos reported Trump's approval rating at 34% by early May 2026, driven by economic concerns. |
| Below 35% | 45.0% | 47.4% | YouGov and Reuters/Ipsos polls reported approval at 34-35% by May 2026, driven by economic concerns. |
| Below 38% | 81.0% | 84.8% | Multiple polls reported Trump's approval at 34-37% by May 2026, driven by economic concerns. |
| Below 34% | 28.0% | 30.8% | Reuters/Ipsos reported Trump's approval rating at 34% by early May 2026, driven by economic concerns. |
Current Context
Donald Trump's approval rating significantly declined during his second term. Following its commencement in January 2025 at 47%, his approval rating fell to an average of 37-40% by mid-2026 [^]. Polls conducted in April and May 2026 indicated even lower points, ranging between 34% and 37% [^][^][^]. This decline continued a historical pattern where presidential approval ratings tend to decrease over time [^][^][^]. His aggregated approval ratings remained consistently low, with his first year in office during the second term being reported by Gallup as the lowest of any president since 1977, before Gallup ceased tracking presidential approval in February 2026 [^][^].
Public dissatisfaction with economic issues and foreign policy drove the decline. Key factors contributing to this downturn include public discontent with his handling of the economy, rising inflation, the cost of living, and an ongoing war with Iran [^][^][^][^][^]. Support also decreased significantly among independent voters and younger Republican voters [^][^][^]. For example, his approval among 2024 voters under 35 dropped by 23 points from the start of his term to August 2025, reaching 69% [^]. Similarly, among independent voters, his net approval rating declined by 42 points in 2025, shifting from approximately even in January to 43 points underwater by December [^].
Prediction markets indicate a low probability of significant approval recovery. Platforms like Polymarket suggest that Donald Trump's approval rating is unlikely to rise above 43% by December 2026 [^]. Kalshi markets similarly imply a low probability of his approval surpassing 44% within the same timeframe [^]. Both prediction markets and experts view a sustained rise above 43-44% before 2027 as unlikely, particularly without significant unforeseen positive developments [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has experienced a clear downward trend, with the implied probability falling from a starting point of 92.0% to a current price of 81.0%. The most significant price movement occurred between late April and early May 2026, when the price dropped sharply from 92.0% to 81.0%. This decline appears to be a direct reaction to the provided news context from that period. Reports of Donald Trump's approval rating falling to between 34% and 40% in various polls likely caused traders to reassess the probability, resulting in a rapid sell-off and a lower market price.
The total volume of 2,306 contracts traded indicates a moderate level of interest in the market over its lifespan, though the recent sample data points show zero volume, suggesting the latest price drop may have occurred on relatively light trading activity. From a technical perspective, the market has broken down from its earlier trading range. The 92.0% level, where the market began, may now be considered a resistance level. The current price of 81.0% represents a new area of price discovery as traders evaluate the impact of recent polling. The overall price action suggests a significant bearish shift in market sentiment. Initially, traders assigned a very high probability to the outcome, but the recent decline reflects a marked decrease in confidence, pricing in a greater likelihood of the event being triggered by low approval ratings.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Below 37%
📉 May 01, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 76.0% to 66.0%
What happened: On May 01, 2026, Pew Research Center and Reuters/Ipsos reported Donald Trump's job approval rating at 34% [^][^]. This news directly confirmed that his approval rating had fallen "Below 37%", an outcome that would logically cause the prediction market price to increase as the event was achieved, rather than drop. With no social media activity, contradictory news, or market structure factors provided to explain a 10.0 percentage point drop for a confirmed outcome, the primary driver for this movement cannot be identified from the available information. Social media was not a factor based on the provided research.
Outcome: Below 35%
📉 April 26, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 61.0% to 51.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was a traditional news announcement. A CNBC All-America Economic Survey, dated April 23, 2026, reported Trump's overall job performance approval at 40% [^]. This finding, which appeared to lead the market movement, likely decreased the perceived probability of his approval rating falling below 35%, causing the "Below 35%" outcome's price to drop by 10.0 percentage points by April 26, 2026. Based on the provided sources, no social media activity was identified as a primary or contributing driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to 'Yes' if Donald Trump's average approval rating, as reported by VoteHub, drops below 36% at least once between December 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. If the rating never drops below 36% during this period, the market resolves to 'No'. The market will close early if polling data for the specified time period is released, or by January 7, 2027, at the latest.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 38% | $0.82 | $0.19 | 81% |
| Below 37% | $0.71 | $0.35 | 66% |
| Below 36% | $0.57 | $0.48 | 58% |
| Below 35% | $0.45 | $0.57 | 45% |
| Below 34% | $0.34 | $0.71 | 28% |
| Below 33% | $0.24 | $0.77 | 23% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively debating the likelihood of Donald Trump's approval rating falling below various thresholds (37%, 36%, 35%) before 2027, with the current market odds indicating a greater than 50% chance of dipping below 36%. Key arguments for a low rating ('Yes') cite potential economic instability and perceived financial misconduct, while arguments against ('No') suggest that external events like an "assassination attempt" could boost approval. A notable insight from the discussion is the clarification that the market resolves based on the VoteHub aggregate, not individual polls, which has led to some confusion among participants regarding whether thresholds have already been met.
5. How might specific developments in the war with Iran impact Trump's approval ratings among his core Republican base versus swing voters before 2027?
| Trump Overall Approval | 34% by late April/early May 2026 (Reuters) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Disapproval of Iran War Handling | 60% (PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, May 6, 2026) [^] |
| Independent Net Approval on Iran | Net -39 (24% approve / 63% disapprove) [^] |
Trump's overall approval ratings declined due to the war and economic concerns. By late April and early May 2026, his approval reportedly fell to 34%, driven by developments in the war with Iran, rising cost-of-living concerns, and increasing gas prices [^][^]. This decline signals a broader dissatisfaction affecting his political standing.
Support eroded significantly among independents and swing voters. While Trump's core Republican base largely maintains approval for his actions in Iran, with 72% approval among Republicans, internal divisions are emerging as more than one in five Republicans disapprove [^][^]. The most substantial erosion of support comes from independent voters, among whom Trump's net approval on handling the Iran war dropped sharply to -39, with 24% approving and 63% disapproving [^]. Overall, a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll from May 6, 2026, reported that 60% disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran war, an increase from 54% in March [^][^].
Rising gas prices and war concerns negatively impact swing voters. Gas prices, directly linked to the Iran conflict, are contributing to political backlash, with strategists noting that consumers prioritize fuel costs over the war itself, posing an economic and political risk [^]. Negative sentiment is particularly strong among swing voters in competitive areas, where focus groups revealed broad displeasure with Trump's handling of the Iran war and concerns regarding decision-making and the conflict's endgame [^]. This situation fosters an anti-incumbent dynamic that could further diminish approval among crucial swing voters [^].
6. How consistent are Trump's 2026 approval ratings across different high-quality pollsters like Marist, Quinnipiac, and YouGov, and what do outliers indicate?
| Lowest Approval Rating 2026 | 35% (YouGov, March 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Marist Poll May 2026 | 37% [^][^][^] |
| YouGov May 2026 | 36% [^][^][^] |
Trump's early 2026 approval ratings showed high consistency across major pollsters. Approval ratings from Marist, Quinnipiac, and YouGov generally ranged between 35% and 39% [^][^]. YouGov reported the lowest approval at 35% in March 2026, which marked the lowest net approval the former President had received in any Economist/YouGov Poll during either of his terms [^].
Specific poll results from 2026 indicate consistent figures in the mid to upper 30s. Marist Polls recorded 39% approval in February [^][^][^], 38% in March [^], and 37% in May [^][^][^]. Quinnipiac University Polls similarly showed approval around 38% in April and March [^][^][^]. A March 2026 Quinnipiac poll indicated 37% approval, which was a new low for his second term at that time [^]. YouGov's findings included 37% in April 2026 [^] and 36% in May 2026 [^][^][^].
Polling variations result from different methodologies and respondent factors. While specific pollsters demonstrated high consistency for 2026 [^][^], variations in polling can arise from differences in sampling methodology, weighting, survey mode, and respondent ambivalence [^][^][^]. The data indicates the lowest approval rating before 2027 reached 35% (YouGov, March 2026) [^] and remained around 36-37% in May 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
7. How does the decline in Trump's approval among independent voters in his second term compare to the trend for George W. Bush from 2005-2006?
| Trump Independent Approval Decline | 18 points (May 2025 to May 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump Lowest Net Approval | -41 (February 2026) [^] |
| George W. Bush Independent Approval Decline | 14 percentage points (Nov-Dec 2004 to Sep-Oct 2005) [^] |
Donald Trump's net approval among independent voters saw a significant decline during his second term. From May 2025 to May 2026, his net approval decreased by 18 points, reaching -38 by early May 2026 [^]. This decline followed a February 2026 report indicating independents' net job approval was -41, identified as his lowest net approval among independents in any Economist/YouGov poll throughout both his first and second terms [^].
George W. Bush also experienced significant approval drops among independents during a comparable period. His approval among "pure independents" decreased by 14 percentage points, falling from 42% in November–December 2004 to 28% in September–October 2005 [^]. Gallup further reported that Bush’s support among pure independents was approximately halved, dropping from 43% between February 25 and March 20, 2005, to 21% between February 28 and March 16, 2006 [^]. This overall decline among independents during 2005–2006 is consistent with data found in the American Presidency Project’s Bush public approval dataset [^].
8. Which polling aggregators, such as RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight, offer the most reliable daily tracking data for Trump's approval rating through 2026?
| Rasmussen Reports Tracking | Daily, as a five-day rolling average [^] |
|---|---|
| USPollingData.com Tracker | Daily updated 'Live Tracker' since Jan 2025 [^] |
| Silver Bulletin Composite | Maintains an approval-rating composite/“trend” [^] |
Several sources provide frequent tracking data for Trump's approval rating. Rasmussen Reports stands out as the sole nationally recognized public opinion firm that tracks President Trump's job approval ratings on a daily basis, utilizing a five-day rolling average derived from 1,500 likely voters [^]. USPollingData.com also offers a "Live Tracker" that is updated daily and includes a day-by-day chart extending back to January 2025 [^].
Aggregators like Silver Bulletin offer composite approval trends. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin maintains an approval-rating composite or “trend” which combines polls across various voter types [^]. This composite is specifically utilized for resolving Polymarket markets related to Trump's approval rating in 2026 [^]. USPollingData.com, complementing its daily tracker, computes its averages by weighting data from multiple national pollsters based on recency and sample size [^].
RealClearPolitics offers a poll average rather than daily tracking data. While RealClearPolling provides a "RealClearPolitics Poll Average" for "President Trump Job Approval," this source functions as a poll-average aggregation page and is not explicitly a daily tracking publication [^]. It is designated as a fallback option for 2026 approval rating predictions should Silver Bulletin become permanently unavailable [^].
9. What potential economic catalysts, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could drive Trump's approval rating below 35% before December 2026?
| Approval Rating | 34% (Reuters/Ipsos, late April) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Inflation Handling Approval | 21% (Reuters/Ipsos) [^] |
| Overall Economy Approval | 37% (Brookings, mid-late April) [^][^] |
Trump's approval rating recently fell to a new low. His approval rating reached 34% in late April, its lowest point according to Reuters/Ipsos polling [^][^]. This decline is largely attributed to public dissatisfaction with economic management, particularly inflation, where only 21% of respondents approved of his performance [^].
Persistent inflation could significantly depress approval ratings. Potential economic catalysts that could keep Trump's approval below 35% through December 2026 include repeated higher-than-expected inflation reports, impacting both headline and "core" measures [^][^][^]. Such developments could prevent or delay Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, which would likely worsen public perceptions of inflation handling and overall economic conditions [^][^][^]. For instance, the March CPI showed a 3.3% year-over-year increase, with price pressures from international conflicts and rising gasoline costs contributing to a decline in approval [^][^]. Scheduled releases of inflation data, such as the trimmed-mean PCE series, represent key moments where accelerating inflation could further diminish public sentiment [^].
Weakening labor and GDP data could further erode support. Additionally, declining labor market indicators, including jobs and unemployment figures, which the public closely monitors, could serve as further negative catalysts [^]. Reversals in GDP growth, such as quarterly contractions or negative revisions to previous quarters, might also impact approval, even if initial growth figures appear positive [^]. While Q1 2026 registered 2% annualized GDP growth, factors like tariffs and energy disruptions led to increased inflation and oil prices, indicating that positive GDP numbers might not always align with public "pocketbook" sentiment [^]. Ultimately, a sustained deterioration in economic evaluation, driven by ongoing cost-of-living concerns, is the primary mechanism for approval to remain below or fall further from 35% [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several factors are identified as potential catalysts that could push approval ratings lower. Widespread disapproval of his handling of the economy, inflation, and the cost of living, alongside high gas prices, has significantly impacted his support [^][^][^][^]. His handling of the Iran war has also drawn considerable disapproval, even among some Republicans [^][^]. The possibility of Republicans losing control of the House and potentially the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections could further diminish his approval [^][^][^][^][^]. Analyses suggest his "unilateralist instincts" and attempts to consolidate power, described as the Eurasia Group's "US political revolution" risk, could continue to alienate voters [^]. There has been a notable decline in approval among his own 2024 voters, particularly those under 35 [^][^]. Some prediction markets indicate a 50% chance that his approval rating will drop below 36% and a 46% chance it will fall below 35% before 2027 [^].
Conversely, some events could potentially bolster his approval, though experts suggest these are unlikely to reverse the overall downward trend significantly. The 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in July 2026 and the co-hosting of the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2026 could provide opportunities for national unity and a temporary boost in approval [^]. Sustained achievements in border security and robust immigration enforcement, as well as new tax cuts expected to boost consumer spending in 2026, could positively influence his ratings [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: January 07, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several factors are identified as potential catalysts that could push approval ratings lower.
- Trigger: Widespread disapproval of his handling of the economy, inflation, and the cost of living, alongside high gas prices, has significantly impacted his support [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: His handling of the Iran war has also drawn considerable disapproval, even among some Republicans [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The possibility of Republicans losing control of the House and potentially the Senate in the November 2026 midterm elections could further diminish his approval [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 2 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-40: YES (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-39: YES (Apr 21, 2026)
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