How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Above 218 votes to expel Eric Swalwell, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Eric Swalwell resigned before any House floor vote on his expulsion.
- Serious sexual misconduct allegations prompted H.Res. 1166 against Swalwell.
- Swalwell announced his resignation in mid-April 2026 amid public pressure.
- House leadership has not indicated intent to vote on H.Res. 1166.
- Expelling a member requires a two-thirds vote in the House.
- Swalwell's resignation averted an ethics investigation and potential expulsion vote.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 218 | 1.0% | 1.6% | Eric Swalwell resigned before a House floor vote, resulting in zero expulsion votes by the specified deadline. |
| Above 230 | 2.0% | 1.5% | Eric Swalwell resigned before a House floor vote, resulting in zero expulsion votes by the specified deadline. |
| Above 330 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Eric Swalwell resigned before a House floor vote, resulting in zero expulsion votes by the specified deadline. |
| Above 250 | 2.0% | 1.4% | Eric Swalwell resigned before a House floor vote, resulting in zero expulsion votes by the specified deadline. |
| Above 270 | 2.0% | 1.3% | Eric Swalwell resigned before a House floor vote, resulting in zero expulsion votes by the specified deadline. |
Current Context
Eric Swalwell was not expelled, resigning before a House vote could occur. Zero House votes were held to expel Representative Eric Swalwell, as his resignation, effective mid-April 2026, preempted any such efforts [^][^][^]. This resignation came amidst significant bipartisan pressure and the threat of looming expulsion motions, following the emergence of sexual misconduct allegations against him in early April 2026 [^][^][^].
Legislative efforts for expulsion halted due to Swalwell's resignation. H.Res. 1166, a resolution introduced by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) on April 13, 2026, aimed to expel Swalwell and was referred to the House Ethics Committee; however, it never advanced to a floor vote [^][^][^]. Swalwell's decision to resign, along with those of other Representatives such as Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus-McCormick, prevented the necessity of rare two-thirds threshold votes required for expulsion and avoided an unprecedented week of multiple member expulsions in the House [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow range, trading between 1.0% and 4.0% probability for its entire duration. The price began at 2.0% before quickly establishing a firm support level at 1.0%, where it currently trades. This immediate drop and subsequent stability at the lowest possible price point reflect the market's rapid absorption of definitive real-world events. The key price levels are the 1.0% floor, which has acted as strong support, and a resistance ceiling at 4.0% that was never seriously tested.
The primary driver of the price action was the resignation of Representative Swalwell in mid-April 2026, which occurred before this market opened. News reports confirmed that this resignation preempted any potential expulsion vote. The market opened on April 24 already reflecting this reality at a low 2.0% probability, and by April 30, it had settled at the 1.0% floor as traders solidified their consensus that zero votes would be held. The substantial total volume of 41,573 contracts suggests significant initial interest, likely as traders moved to price in the near-certain outcome. The lower volume in later trading sessions indicates high market conviction, with little disagreement or new information to challenge the prevailing sentiment.
Overall, the chart reflects a market with a strong and unwavering consensus. The price action suggests that from the outset, traders were confident that no House votes to expel Eric Swalwell would occur before the resolution date. The stability at the 1.0% price floor indicates a deeply bearish sentiment on the prospect of a vote, a view directly informed and confirmed by the representative's resignation. The market essentially functioned to confirm an already-known outcome, with the price reflecting near-certainty.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "Above 218" contract, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the number of House Yea votes to expel Eric Swalwell is above 218. A "No" resolution occurs if the Yea votes are 218 or below, or if no qualifying full chamber vote takes place. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and closes either upon the vote or by June 1, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT, with outcomes verified via Congress.gov; vote alterations requested after market expiration are not considered.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 230 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Above 250 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 270 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 290 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 330 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 218 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Above 310 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The market discussion indicates a strong consensus that Eric Swalwell is unlikely to be expelled, with probabilities for "Above 218" votes and higher thresholds sitting at 1% or less. While some traders are betting "Yes" without specific arguments, a recurring question is whether a vote on expulsion will even occur before the market's expiration in June 2026. The market rules state that if no vote happens, most "Above X" vote markets would resolve to "No," further reinforcing the low expectation of expulsion.
4. What specific allegations against Rep. Swalwell prompted Rep. Anna Paulina Luna to introduce H.Res. 1166 in April 2026?
| Primary Allegations | Sexual assault (2019 and 2024) and sexual misconduct [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Investigation Status | Criminal investigation initiated by New York prosecutors [^][^] |
| Congressional Resignation | April 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
Eric Swalwell faced serious sexual misconduct allegations, leading to a criminal probe. These accusations included claims of sexual assault from a former staffer on two separate occasions in 2019 and 2024, as well as accusations of various forms of sexual misconduct, such as sending unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos, from three other women [^][^][^][^][^]. These specific sexual assault allegations prompted New York prosecutors to initiate a criminal investigation into the matter [^][^].
Swalwell denied assault claims, admitted mistakes, and later resigned. In response to the allegations, Eric Swalwell publicly denied the sexual assault claims, labeling them as "flat false," though he admitted to having made "mistakes in judgment" in his past [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Amidst these accusations, Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress on April 14, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^].
The research did not directly link these specific allegations to H.Res. 1166. The provided research output does not explicitly connect these particular allegations against Swalwell to Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's introduction of H.Res. 1166.
5. How many House members publicly called for Swalwell's resignation or expulsion prior to his announcement in mid-April 2026?
| Swalwell Resignation Date | April 13, 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| House Members Calling for Action | At least 11 [^][^][^] |
| Nature of Calls | Bipartisan [^][^][^] |
At least eleven House members publicly called for Swalwell's removal. Prior to his resignation, at least 11 House members publicly demanded Swalwell's resignation or expulsion, though some reports suggested the total number was likely higher [^][^][^][^][^]. These demands were bipartisan, including Republicans such as Representatives Luna, Donalds, Lawler, and Mace, and Democrats including Representatives Jayapal, Huffman, Vindman, Leger Fernandez, and Scholten [^][^][^]. Representative Luna (R) specifically filed an expulsion resolution against Swalwell [^].
Resignations occurred, averting a formal expulsion vote. Representative Leger Fernandez (D) not only supported the expulsion resolution against Swalwell but also filed a separate one for Representative Gonzales [^]. Ultimately, no expulsion vote took place, as both Swalwell and Gonzales resigned from Congress on April 14, 2026, under the impending threat of formal expulsion proceedings [^].
6. How did the bipartisan pressure on Eric Swalwell compare to the successful expulsion of Rep. George Santos in 2023?
| Swalwell Expulsion Votes | Zero expulsion votes [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Santos Expulsion Date | December 1, 2023 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Santos Expulsion Vote | 311-114 [^][^][^][^] |
Eric Swalwell resigned amid allegations and an ethics investigation. Eric Swalwell faced allegations of sexual misconduct, which prompted an investigation by the House Ethics Committee into potential violations of the Code of Official Conduct [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Under significant bipartisan pressure, Swalwell resigned from Congress on April 13, 2026, just hours after the Ethics Committee announced its investigation [^][^][^][^]. He cited "mistakes in judgment" and a desire not to distract his constituents from his duties, leading to his departure without an expulsion vote taking place [^][^][^][^].
George Santos was expelled following federal charges and an ethics report. In contrast, George Santos was expelled from the House on December 1, 2023, following extensive fabrications about his biography and a federal indictment on charges including wire fraud, money laundering, and making false statements [^][^][^][^][^]. A pivotal moment in his expulsion was the release of a scathing 56-page report by the House Ethics Committee, which detailed "overwhelming evidence" of misconduct and "substantial evidence" of financial impropriety [^][^][^][^][^]. This report swayed members from both parties, culminating in a 311-114 House vote to expel Santos, surpassing the required two-thirds majority [^][^][^][^]. Santos became the sixth member ever expelled from the House [^][^][^][^][^].
7. What is the standard procedural path for an expulsion resolution from introduction to a floor vote in the House of Representatives?
| Required Vote for Expulsion | Two-thirds of the members of the House [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Typical Referral for Expulsion Resolution | House Standards of Official Conduct / ethics jurisdiction [^] |
| Example Resolution Introduction Date | April 13, 2026 [^][^][^] |
House expulsion resolutions begin with explicit charges and privileged status. The procedural path for an expulsion resolution in the House of Representatives commences with its introduction, which must clearly state the charges. Such a resolution is generally referred to the House Standards of Official Conduct or other ethics jurisdiction [^]. It is designated as a question of the privileges of the House, a status that enables its progression to a floor vote even if it does not receive a favorable report from a committee [^][^]. Additionally, an expulsion resolution holds the potential to mandate a committee investigation or report [^].
Floor procedures for expulsion resolutions differ from ordinary legislative processes. The privileged status of an expulsion resolution allows it to supersede the regular order of business, making it possible to call it up directly for a vote on the House floor [^][^]. For an expulsion to pass once it reaches a floor vote in the House chamber, it must secure the concurrence of two-thirds of the members present [^][^]
8. What statements did House leadership, such as Speaker Johnson, make regarding bringing H.Res. 1166 to the floor for a full vote?
| H.Res. 1166 Introduction Date | April 13, 2026 (by Rep. Luna) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| H.Res. 1166 Referral | House Ethics Committee [^][^] |
| Leadership Intent for Floor Vote | No evidence to bring H.Res. 1166 to the floor [^] |
House leadership has not indicated any intent to vote on H.Res. 1166. There is no evidence suggesting that House leadership, including Speaker Johnson, plans to bring H.Res. 1166 to the floor for a full vote. The available information does not contain any statements or indications that leadership intends to schedule this resolution for a vote [^].
H.Res. 1166 remains with the House Ethics Committee. The resolution was introduced by Representative Luna on April 13, 2026, and was immediately referred to the House Ethics Committee [^][^][^]. There is no record of H.Res. 1166 receiving consideration from the Rules Committee or being scheduled for any floor action [^][^][^][^]. Expelling a House member requires a simple majority vote on the House floor [^]. Given the absence of any scheduled floor action, prediction markets anticipating House votes to expel Representative Swalwell are likely to resolve with zero votes before June 1, 2026 [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The power to expel a member is granted to the House by Article I, Section 5, Clause 2 of the United States Constitution, which states that "Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behaviour, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member" [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 01, 2026
- Closes: June 01, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The power to expel a member is granted to the House by Article I, Section 5, Clause 2 of the United States Constitution, which states that "Each House may determine the Rules of its Proceedings, punish its Members for disorderly Behaviour, and, with the Concurrence of two thirds, expel a Member" [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Expulsion is considered the most severe disciplinary action that can be taken against a member of Congress [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Historically, this has been a rare occurrence in U.S.
- Trigger: History [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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