How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds (16.6%) than the market (28.0%) for Trump's approval rating peaking above 43% before 2027. This is driven by a reported downward trend since early 2026 and expert analysis suggesting a continued decline, making higher peaks unlikely.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump's approval has trended downwards since early 2026.
- Current approval averages 37-39% as of May 2026.
- Expert analysis suggests a continued downward trend, peak above 44% unlikely.
- Silver Bulletin and USPollingData indicate 45%+ return unlikely.
- Polymarket implies a peak around 43% by December 2026.
- Significant economic shifts are required for a sustained 5-point rise.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 43% | 28.0% | 16.6% | Expert analysis suggests a continued downward trend, with Polymarket implying a peak around 43% by December 2026. |
| Above 44% | 23.0% | 13.5% | Expert analysis suggests a continued downward trend, making a peak above 44% unlikely before 2027. |
| Above 50% | 5.0% | 2.5% | Expert analysis and polling data trends suggest a peak above 50% is unlikely before 2027. |
| Above 47% | 11.0% | 5.6% | Silver Bulletin and USPollingData trends indicate a return to 47%+ is unlikely by December 2026. |
| Above 45% | 16.0% | 8.0% | Silver Bulletin and USPollingData trends indicate a return to 45%+ is unlikely by December 2026. |
Current Context
Trump's approval peaked at 47% initially, but has declined significantly. The highest recorded approval rating for Trump was 47% at his January 2025 inauguration, followed by 44% in January 2026 [^]. However, current averages for May 2026 show a significant decline, with Marist reporting 37%, FiftyPlusOne at 36.8%, Silver at 39.1%, and an aggregator average of 38.9% [^][^][^][^]. This indicates a substantial drop from his earlier highs.
Recent monthly trends show fluctuation, with experts projecting continued decline. Examining monthly data for 2026, the approval rating began at 44% in January, fell to 43% in February, reached a low of 41% in March, and then experienced a slight rebound to 43% in April [^]. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, currently assign a 12% chance of the approval rating reaching 44% or higher before 2027, with the most likely outcome being a peak below this threshold [^][^][^]. Experts generally concur, projecting that this downward trend will continue into the midterms unless there are significant macroeconomic shocks [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a relatively stable, sideways trend, with the price trading within a seven-point range between 26.0% and 33.0%. The contract opened at 32.0% and touched a high of 33.0% in late April. The most significant price movement occurred shortly after, when the probability dropped from its peak to 28.0% in early May, where it currently stands. This drop represents a notable shift in market expectations within the otherwise narrow trading channel.
The sharp decline in price appears to be a direct reaction to recent polling data. News reports from May 2026 indicate a significant decline in Trump's approval rating, with polling averages falling to around 38.9%, down from a peak of 47% earlier in his term. This negative development likely caused traders to reassess the probability of his approval rating reaching a new high. The price action suggests an area of resistance near the 33.0% level and a potential support level at the market's low of 26.0%.
Overall market sentiment has shifted from cautious optimism to a more pessimistic outlook. The total trading volume of 135 contracts is quite low, which suggests that conviction among traders is not particularly strong and that the market may be susceptible to new information. The current price of 28.0% implies that the market assigns a low probability to Trump's approval rating surpassing its previous peak before the end of 2026, reflecting the impact of the recent unfavorable polling numbers.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump's average approval rating, as reported by VoteHub, rises above 43% at any point between December 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The 43% threshold needs to be met only once during this period. The market opened on December 11, 2025, and will close early if relevant polling data is released, or by January 7, 2027, with payouts occurring 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 43% | $0.30 | $0.76 | 28% |
| Above 44% | $0.23 | $0.85 | 23% |
| Above 45% | $0.17 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Above 46% | $0.14 | $0.89 | 14% |
| Above 47% | $0.10 | $0.96 | 11% |
| Above 48% | $0.09 | $0.94 | 10% |
| Above 49% | $0.08 | $0.95 | 8% |
| Above 50% | $0.08 | $0.95 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Traders on this market are discussing whether Donald Trump's approval rating will significantly increase before 2027. Arguments for a rise suggest that his approval has bottomed out and voters tend to forget past issues, while those betting against higher approval express general negative sentiment towards Trump and question the recency of some polling data. Despite the varied opinions, the market probabilities are currently low for his approval to exceed 43%, indicating a general expectation that it will remain suppressed.
4. What potential domestic or foreign policy catalysts in the second half of 2026 could significantly boost President Trump's approval rating above 45%?
| Overall approval May 2026 | 37% (NPR) [^] |
|---|---|
| Economy approval April | 30% (AP) [^] |
| Iran handling approval | 32% (AP) [^] |
A resolution to the Iran conflict could significantly raise President Trump's approval. Such an outcome could generate a substantial "win" narrative and potentially alleviate gas price pressures, which have been a notable factor in public opinion [^][^][^]. The conflict's legal trajectory, marked by a 60-day War Powers deadline and upcoming congressional votes, positions its resolution as a major foreign policy development [^]. As of May 2026, President Trump's overall approval stood at 37% with 59% disapproval, with gas price pain tied to the Iran war identified as a significant factor [^]. Similarly, April polling indicated economy approval at 30% and Iran handling approval at 32% [^]. While officials had anticipated gas price relief, the Energy Department projects this for 2027, making relief in the second half of 2026 uncertain without rapid policy or market shifts [^].
Domestically, sustained border security achievements could also elevate Trump's approval rating. Continued "border security results" and robust immigration enforcement could boost support among key voter groups [^]. Claims highlighted by the Washington Examiner, such as decades-low arrest figures and substantial funding for border security expansion during Trump's term, suggest that maintaining and linking these to tangible outcomes could support higher approval [^]. However, not all domestic initiatives are broadly popular; for instance, a Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll indicated 56% opposition to Trump's proposed White House ballroom tear-down, suggesting such discretionary projects are unlikely to significantly improve approval ratings on their own [^].
5. What do the models from Silver Bulletin and USPollingData indicate as the likely peak for Trump's approval rating by December 2026?
| Silver Bulletin early 2026 | Approximately 44% net -13 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Silver Bulletin March 2026 | 39.7% net -17.4 [^][^][^] |
| USPollingData April 2026 | 43% approve, net -12 [^][^] |
Traditional polling models do not explicitly forecast Trump's peak approval by December 2026. Models from Silver Bulletin and USPollingData do not provide specific peak forecasts for this period. However, trends observed in data from these sources indicate that it is unlikely for Trump's approval rating to return to 45% or higher [^][^][^].
Recent data from polling organizations shows Trump's approval below 45%. According to Silver Bulletin, Trump's approval rating began 2026 at approximately 44% (net -13) but subsequently declined to 39.7% (net -17.4) by March 2026 [^][^][^]. Similarly, USPollingData's average for April 2026 reported 43% approval (net -12), with a low of 41% in March, and support among independents at 38% [^][^].
Prediction markets suggest Trump's approval might peak around 43%. While explicit peak forecasts are not available from traditional polling models, Polymarket's leading outcomes for Trump's approval rating in 2026, such as '↑44%' (14%) and '↑45%' (12%), imply a market-expected peak hovering around 43% by the December 2026 resolution date [^][^].
6. How does the trend of Trump's approval rating during 2025-2026 compare to his first two years in office (2017-2018) and other recent second-term presidents?
| Approval Low (Nov 2025) | 36% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Average Approval (2025-2026) | 37% to 40% [^][^][^] |
| 2024 Voter Approval (May 2026) | 78% (down from 95% early in term) [^] |
Trump's approval rating significantly declined during his second term. From January 2025, when his approval stood at 47%, it steadily fell throughout 2025 and into 2026, reaching a low of 36% by November 2025 and averaging between 37% and 40% [^][^][^]. By May 2026, approval among his 2024 voters had decreased to 78%, a notable drop from 95% at the start of his term [^]. His approval rating for a specific week in 2026 was 40.5%, slightly lower than the 41.5% recorded during the comparable week in his first term [^]. Gallup ceased tracking presidential approval ratings on February 11, 2026 [^].
Second-term presidential approval often declines, varying among leaders. Historically, presidents typically experience a decline in their approval ratings during a second term, attributed to factors such as public fatigue or policy setbacks [^][^]. While some presidents, like Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan, managed to see their popularity rise in their second terms [^][^], others, such as George W. Bush, faced substantial declines, with his ratings plummeting to 25% by October 2008 [^][^][^][^]. Trump's decline through early May 2026 was comparable to Bush's trajectory, though Bush's ultimate lows were more profound [^][^][^][^].
7. Which polling firms provide consistent monthly tracking of Trump's approval rating broken down by key demographic groups for the 2025-2026 period?
| Marist Poll Tracking | Consistent monthly tracking with political affiliation and other demographic breakdowns [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Gallup Demographics | Breakdowns by party identification on various issues [^][^][^] |
| Siena College Demographic Scope | Republicans, independents, White, Latino, and Black voters [^][^][^][^][^] |
Several polling firms consistently tracked Trump's approval with key demographic breakdowns. The Marist Poll, frequently collaborating with NPR/PBS News, issued monthly polls that included specific breakdowns by political affiliation such as Republicans and independents, alongside other demographic information [^][^][^][^][^]. Gallup also maintained consistent monthly tracking of presidential job approval, providing data on Trump's approval disaggregated by party identification across various issues [^][^][^]. Siena College, in partnership with The New York Times, conducted national polls detailing Trump's approval ratings with comprehensive demographic breakdowns. These encompassed Republicans, independents, and specific racial groups including White, Latino, and Black voters [^][^][^][^][^].
Other firms offered tracking but lacked consistent demographic details. While Rasmussen Reports provided daily and monthly tracking of Trump's job approval, the available information did not specify consistent demographic breakdowns for the 2025-2026 period [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Quantus Insights conducted a survey in March 2026, which detailed Trump's approval among younger voters (18-29) and Gen Z voters, but this did not represent consistent monthly tracking across the entire period [^]. The Cook Political Report functions as an aggregation service, compiling polling data for a rolling average of Trump's overall approval and his standing within crucial demographic subgroups, rather than serving as a primary tracking poll provider itself [^].
8. What magnitude of change in key economic indicators, like inflation or unemployment, would be required to historically justify a sustained 5-point rise in Trump's approval rating?
| Approval gain from inflation shift | Roughly 13-point difference [^] |
|---|---|
| Unemployment rate decrease for approval | At least 0.5 to 1 percentage point [^][^] |
| Approval on inflation (mid-2026) | Low 20s or high 20s approval; high 60s or low 70s disapproval [^][^][^] |
To historically justify a sustained 5-point rise in Donald Trump's approval rating, significant shifts in key economic indicators would be required. A transition from a "high inflation regime" to a "low inflation regime" is historically linked to approximately a 13-point shift in approval ratings, a magnitude that would be needed to support such a sustained rise [^]. Public dissatisfaction with high prices and the cost of living has been a primary detractor from Trump's hypothetical second-term approval [^][^][^]. For instance, in early to mid-2026, his approval regarding inflation was notably low, with some polls indicating figures in the low to high 20s for approval and high 60s to low 70s for disapproval [^][^][^]. For approval to improve, economic statistical gains must translate into a strong public perception of enhanced affordability and declining costs for daily necessities [^][^][^][^][^].
A sustained unemployment decrease could boost Trump's approval. A sustained decrease in the unemployment rate of at least 0.5 to 1 percentage point, particularly if it reaches consistently very low levels below 3.5%, would likely contribute to an increase in approval [^][^]. Although research indicates a 1% decrease in unemployment can positively impact approval, Trump's first-term approval ratings remained relatively stable despite low unemployment, suggesting other factors held more sway [^][^]. A continued, substantial decrease is necessary to foster a public belief that the economy is improving and that the president is effectively addressing economic concerns, moving away from current widespread sentiments of the economy "getting worse" or being merely "fair/poor" [^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Economic performance is a key catalyst; a strong economy characterized by low taxes, low inflation, high employment rates, stable cost of living, and a robust stock market tends to boost presidential approval [^] . Conversely, weak economic conditions, including high inflation, recessions, high energy prices, and stagnant real wages, can lead to a decline in approval [^][^][^]. Recent reports indicate public disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy [^]. Presidents often see a temporary surge in approval during national crises, especially if they are perceived as handling them effectively, or from diplomatic victories [^][^][^]. However, prolonged or unpopular overseas conflicts, particularly those with significant casualties, tend to damage approval ratings over time; Trump's handling of the Iran war has recently faced increased disapproval [^][^][^][^]. Successfully passing popular legislation and addressing public concerns can enhance a president's standing [^], while significant scandals or disruptions, such as government shutdowns, can negatively impact public perception and approval [^][^].
Several specific events in 2026 could also act as catalysts. In January 2026, the U.S. reportedly launched a military raid in Venezuela [^]. February 2026 saw a major U.S. attack on Iran with Israel, aimed at regime change [^]. The U.S. also experienced two partial government shutdowns in February 2026, one lasting 76 days, becoming the longest in U.S. history [^]. The 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence is scheduled for July 4, 2026, with nationwide celebrations and keynote remarks from President Trump [^][^][^]. The United States, along with Canada and Mexico, will co-host the FIFA World Cup in June-July 2026 [^]. Additionally, the Midterm Elections on November 3, 2026, will see all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and approximately one-third of the Senate up for election [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: January 07, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Economic performance is a key catalyst; a strong economy characterized by low taxes, low inflation, high employment rates, stable cost of living, and a robust stock market tends to boost presidential approval [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, weak economic conditions, including high inflation, recessions, high energy prices, and stagnant real wages, can lead to a decline in approval [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Recent reports indicate public disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy [^] .
- Trigger: Presidents often see a temporary surge in approval during national crises, especially if they are perceived as handling them effectively, or from diplomatic victories [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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