When will DHS be funded again?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- DHS funding will likely lapse beyond February 23, 2026.
- New DHS funding is unlikely before March 10, 2026.
- Previous DHS funding disputes resolved around April 1-2, 2026.
- House Freedom Caucus demands a GOP-only reconciliation bill for DHS funding.
- House Republicans prefer standalone DHS funding bills for consideration.
- An FBI report on Iran's threat may influence DHS funding urgency.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 30.0% | 13.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before May 8, 2026 | 37.0% | 16.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before May 15, 2026 | 47.0% | 21.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before May 22, 2026 | 59.0% | 28.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 70.0% | 39.7% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before May 8, 2026
📈 April 20, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 22.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: Before May 1, 2026
📉 April 17, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 33.0% to 19.0%
📉 April 14, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 49.0% to 36.0%
📈 April 13, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 50.0%
Outcome: Before May 22, 2026
📉 April 16, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 56.0% to 48.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if legislation funding one or more Department of Homeland Security (DHS) components becomes law before May 15, 2026, with funding effective at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment. Otherwise, it resolves to "No" by the market's close on May 15, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT; presidential pocket vetoes that expire result in a "No" resolution. "Become law" means signed by the President or enacted through a veto override, and the outcome is verified via Congress.gov.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | $0.31 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Before May 8, 2026 | $0.38 | $0.63 | 37% |
| Before May 15, 2026 | $0.51 | $0.53 | 47% |
| Before May 22, 2026 | $0.59 | $0.42 | 59% |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | $0.71 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | $0.89 | $0.12 | 87% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.94 | $0.08 | 93% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Are Freedom Caucus Demands for DHS Funding Bill Support?
| Freedom Caucus Bill Demand | GOP-only reconciliation bill with all border security measures [^] |
|---|---|
| Amnesty Proposals Stance | Rejection of all amnesty proposals [^] |
| "Clean" DHS Bill Whip Count | Not available for a new "clean" bill; a DHS funding bill passed the House [^] |
6. Will DHS Funding Pass as Standalone Bill or Part of a Larger Package?
| House Action | Passed standalone Department of Homeland Security appropriations bills for Fiscal Year 2026 (e.g., H.R. 7744, H.R. 7147) [^] |
|---|---|
| Senate Action | Voted to separate DHS funding from a package of five other funding bills [^] |
| Senate Rationale | DHS bill split off to allow negotiations, specifically regarding efforts to "rein in ICE and CBP" [^] |
7. What are Bipartisan Senate Demands for Border Security Funding?
| Specific dollar amounts for border processing | Not explicitly detailed in available sources [^]. |
|---|---|
| General border security funding calls | Billions in border security funding [^] |
| ICE and Border Patrol funding status | Unanimously excluded from a Senate funding bill at one point [^] |
8. Did Iran Intelligence Report Catalyze DHS Funding Resolution?
| FBI Iran Report Reported | April 8, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| DHS Funding Deal Announced | April 1-2, 2026 [^] |
| Nature of Iran Threat | Persistent threat [^] |
9. What Are the Key Legislative Deadlines for Federal Funding?
| Current CR Expiration | February 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| House Recess Begins | After February 13, 2026 [^] |
| De Facto Voting Deadline | February 13, 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 15, 2026
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Related News
DHS Funding Market Prices In Earlier Resolution Despite Gridlock
Prediction markets tracking the end of the partial government shutdown for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) saw a significant repricing on Monday, April 20, 2026, with traders increasing bets...
DHS Funding Timeline Shortens as Markets Price in Swift Resolution
Prediction markets tracking the end of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding gap saw a sharp repricing on Friday, April 10, 2026, as traders shifted expectations toward a resolution in lat...
DHS Funding Market Pushes Timeline Past April Recess
The prediction market for the resolution of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding lapse saw a significant repricing on Tuesday, April 07, 2026, as traders pushed the expected timeline for ...
DHS Funding Market Pushes Timeline Past April Amid House Stalemate
Prediction markets tracking the end of the record-long Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown sharply repriced on Thursday, April 02, 2026, erasing the prospect of a quick resolution. Probabil...
DHS Shutdown Market Shifts, Pricing In Post-Recess Resolution
The prediction market for when the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will be funded again saw a significant shift on Monday, March 30, 2026, as traders repriced the odds of a resolution toward an ...
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 13 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXDHSFUND-26MAR30: NO (Mar 30, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26MAR28: NO (Mar 28, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-APR08: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26APR15: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXDHSFUND-26MAR26: NO (Mar 26, 2026)
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