Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: DHS funding before Jan 1, 2027, at 77.0% model vs 92.6% market. This suggests a more prolonged funding dispute and delay beyond March 10, 2026, for DHS than currently anticipated by the market.

1. Executive Verdict

  • DHS funding will likely lapse beyond February 23, 2026.
  • New DHS funding is unlikely before March 10, 2026.
  • Previous DHS funding disputes resolved around April 1-2, 2026.
  • House Freedom Caucus demands a GOP-only reconciliation bill for DHS funding.
  • House Republicans prefer standalone DHS funding bills for consideration.
  • An FBI report on Iran's threat may influence DHS funding urgency.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before May 1, 2026 30.0% 13.1% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Before May 8, 2026 37.0% 16.4% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Before May 15, 2026 47.0% 21.4% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Before May 22, 2026 59.0% 28.7% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.
Before Jun 1, 2026 70.0% 39.7% Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market shows a strong and consistent downward trend, indicating diminishing confidence in a "YES" resolution over time. The price began at a 30.0% probability and has since collapsed to its current level of 0.6%. A notable anomaly in this trend was a significant price spike of 14.0 percentage points on April 10, 2026, which briefly pushed the probability from 20.0% to a peak of 34.0%. However, this rally was short-lived and failed to establish a new upward trend, with the price quickly reversing and continuing its decline. The specific catalyst for this spike is not apparent from the available information, but the market's swift rejection of the higher price suggests it was not driven by a fundamental or lasting change in outlook.
The total volume of 279,529 contracts traded indicates significant market participation. The initial price near 30.0% acted as a resistance level that the market was unable to sustain a break above, even during the April 10 spike. Following the spike's failure, the price entered a steep decline, eventually finding a support level near zero. This price action, particularly the sharp drop from 17.0% to 0.6% between April 13 and April 21, suggests strong conviction among traders. Overall, the chart reflects a deeply bearish market sentiment, with participants overwhelmingly predicting that the DHS funding bill will not resolve the market in the affirmative.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before May 8, 2026

📈 April 20, 2026: 16.0pp spike

Price increased from 22.0% to 38.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Before May 1, 2026

📉 April 17, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 33.0% to 19.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📉 April 14, 2026: 13.0pp drop

Price decreased from 49.0% to 36.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

📈 April 13, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 42.0% to 50.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: Before May 22, 2026

📉 April 16, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 56.0% to 48.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if legislation funding one or more Department of Homeland Security (DHS) components becomes law before May 15, 2026, with funding effective at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment. Otherwise, it resolves to "No" by the market's close on May 15, 2026, at 10:00 am EDT; presidential pocket vetoes that expire result in a "No" resolution. "Become law" means signed by the President or enacted through a veto override, and the outcome is verified via Congress.gov.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before May 1, 2026 $0.31 $0.70 30%
Before May 8, 2026 $0.38 $0.63 37%
Before May 15, 2026 $0.51 $0.53 47%
Before May 22, 2026 $0.59 $0.42 59%
Before Jun 1, 2026 $0.71 $0.30 70%
Before Jul 1, 2026 $0.89 $0.12 87%
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.94 $0.08 93%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What Are Freedom Caucus Demands for DHS Funding Bill Support?

Freedom Caucus Bill DemandGOP-only reconciliation bill with all border security measures [^]
Amnesty Proposals StanceRejection of all amnesty proposals [^]
"Clean" DHS Bill Whip CountNot available for a new "clean" bill; a DHS funding bill passed the House [^]
The House Freedom Caucus outlines strict conditions for DHS funding. They demand a "GOP-only reconciliation bill" that fully funds the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and incorporates "all their border security measures" [^]. A core requirement is robust border security and enforcement efforts, alongside a non-negotiable rejection of "all amnesty proposals" [^]. The caucus also prioritizes fully funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) [^]. These conditions lead them to reject current leadership plans, insisting on a GOP-only approach [^].
Specific whip counts for a "clean" DHS funding bill are unavailable. While a DHS funding bill has already passed the House, the available research does not provide a specific vote breakdown for this legislation or a current whip count for any new or pending "clean" DHS funding bill that would rely on majority Democratic support [^]. Although House GOP leaders are preparing to address internal opposition to their funding plans, this does not explicitly quantify a need for broader support beyond their party [^]. The Freedom Caucus's stance explicitly rejects leadership plans in favor of a "GOP-only" bill [^].

6. Will DHS Funding Pass as Standalone Bill or Part of a Larger Package?

House ActionPassed standalone Department of Homeland Security appropriations bills for Fiscal Year 2026 (e.g., H.R. 7744, H.R. 7147) [^]
Senate ActionVoted to separate DHS funding from a package of five other funding bills [^]
Senate RationaleDHS bill split off to allow negotiations, specifically regarding efforts to "rein in ICE and CBP" [^]
House Republicans prefer standalone DHS funding bills for separate consideration. The House Committee on Appropriations, led by Republicans, has demonstrated this preference by advancing and passing standalone appropriations bills for the Department of Homeland Security for Fiscal Year 2026, including H.R. 7744 and H.R. 7147 [^]. These legislative actions clearly indicate a desire within the House for DHS funding to be considered independently.
Senate actions suggest DHS funding will be bundled due to policy disputes. Senator Patty Murray, Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, explicitly announced that the Senate passed five funding bills while deliberately stripping out the DHS funding bill [^]. This decision was made to facilitate negotiations, particularly concerning efforts to "rein in ICE and CBP" [^]. Further highlighting the impasse, Senator Susan Collins indicated that Democrats' "greatly expanded" demands regarding ICE are jeopardizing DHS funding [^]. Given these significant disagreements and the Senate's intentional separation of the bill, the probability of DHS funding passing as a standalone bill is low, with a higher likelihood of it being incorporated into a broader legislative package.

7. What are Bipartisan Senate Demands for Border Security Funding?

Specific dollar amounts for border processingNot explicitly detailed in available sources [^].
General border security funding callsBillions in border security funding [^]
ICE and Border Patrol funding statusUnanimously excluded from a Senate funding bill at one point [^]
Specific funding demands from the bipartisan Senate group are not explicitly detailed. While a key bipartisan Senate group has engaged in negotiations concerning border security and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, explicit dollar amounts for border processing or aid to localities required to secure 60 votes for a final conference report are not available in the research. Discussions have generally included calls for "billions in border security funding" within larger legislative packages, sometimes combined with foreign aid [^]. However, the precise numerical demands put forth by this bipartisan group to invoke cloture on a final conference report are not specified in the available sources.
Significant disagreements have historically complicated border security funding negotiations. Past proposals encountered opposition due to concerns over insufficient humanitarian aid and a lack of immigration policy concessions from Democrats. Additionally, potential cuts to agencies like FEMA, which impacts aid to localities, have caused contention [^]. The depth of these disagreements on border enforcement and immigration policy was evident when the Senate once unanimously agreed to fund most of the DHS, but notably excluded funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol [^]. Efforts to potentially separate DHS funding bills from broader immigration reform packages further highlight the challenges in reaching comprehensive agreements [^].

8. Did Iran Intelligence Report Catalyze DHS Funding Resolution?

FBI Iran Report ReportedApril 8, 2026 [^]
DHS Funding Deal AnnouncedApril 1-2, 2026 [^]
Nature of Iran ThreatPersistent threat [^]
An FBI intelligence report highlighted Iran's "persistent threat" to the United States. This report, which warned of Iran's ongoing threat to the U.S., was covered by news outlets around April 8, 2026 [^]. The congressional 'Gang of Eight,' comprising key leaders, routinely receives high-level intelligence briefings, including those related to Iran, confirming their role in receiving sensitive national security information [^].
This intelligence report did not catalyze the DHS funding bill's passage. The timeline indicates that this specific intelligence report did not serve as the driving force to override partisan disputes and quickly pass a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill. Republican leaders in Congress announced a deal to end a record-long shutdown at DHS around April 1-2, 2026 [^]. Since the intelligence report detailing Iran's "persistent threat" was reported on April 8, 2026, it emerged after the resolution of the DHS funding issue [^]. Furthermore, the report described a "persistent threat" rather than an "elevated threat level," which would typically signify an immediate, acute domestic crisis requiring an emergency legislative response for DHS funding [^].

9. What Are the Key Legislative Deadlines for Federal Funding?

Current CR ExpirationFebruary 23, 2026 [^]
House Recess BeginsAfter February 13, 2026 [^]
De Facto Voting DeadlineFebruary 13, 2026 [^]
Current funding expires February 23, 2026, requiring new legislation. The existing Continuing Resolution (CR), which includes H.R. 7147 and funds federal operations such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), is officially slated to expire on February 23, 2026 [^]. To prevent a funding lapse, a new appropriations bill or another CR must be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by the President before this date.
A House recess moves the practical deadline to February 13. However, the legislative calendar for the 119th Congress establishes an earlier de facto deadline for action. The House of Representatives is scheduled for a 'District Work Period,' a recess that will begin after Friday, February 13, 2026 [^]. The House is not expected to return to session until Monday, February 23, 2026, which is the same day the current CR is set to expire [^].
Bills must pass by February 13 to ensure timely enactment. This scheduled recess effectively designates February 13, 2026, as the practical 'drop-dead' date for a vote on a funding bill. For a bill to successfully clear both the House and Senate, undergo enrollment, and receive the President's signature before the February 23, 2026, expiration, both congressional chambers would realistically need to conclude their voting processes by February 13, 2026, to allow for all necessary procedural steps.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: February 15, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

13. Related News

+16.0pp
Last updated: April 21, 2026, 12:22 UTC

DHS Funding Market Prices In Earlier Resolution Despite Gridlock

Prediction markets tracking the end of the partial government shutdown for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) saw a significant repricing on Monday, April 20, 2026, with traders increasing bets...

+22.0pp
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DHS Funding Timeline Shortens as Markets Price in Swift Resolution

Prediction markets tracking the end of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding gap saw a sharp repricing on Friday, April 10, 2026, as traders shifted expectations toward a resolution in lat...

-23.0pp
Last updated: April 21, 2026, 12:22 UTC

DHS Funding Market Pushes Timeline Past April Recess

The prediction market for the resolution of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding lapse saw a significant repricing on Tuesday, April 07, 2026, as traders pushed the expected timeline for ...

-71.0pp
Last updated: April 21, 2026, 12:22 UTC

DHS Funding Market Pushes Timeline Past April Amid House Stalemate

Prediction markets tracking the end of the record-long Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown sharply repriced on Thursday, April 02, 2026, erasing the prospect of a quick resolution. Probabil...

+16.0pp
Last updated: April 21, 2026, 12:22 UTC

DHS Shutdown Market Shifts, Pricing In Post-Recess Resolution

The prediction market for when the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will be funded again saw a significant shift on Monday, March 30, 2026, as traders repriced the odds of a resolution toward an ...

14. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 13 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR30: NO (Mar 30, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR28: NO (Mar 28, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-APR08: NO (Apr 08, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26APR15: NO (Apr 15, 2026)
  • KXDHSFUND-26MAR26: NO (Mar 26, 2026)