Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 45.0% 33.4%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 13.0% 9.7%
International Markets
Active Markets (23)
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 13.5%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 25.0% 12.9%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 5.1% 2.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
Before May 29, 2026
Market Model 19.0% 11.5%
Before May 22, 2026
Market Model 17.0% 10.5%
China
Market Model 96.0% 99.0%
Turkey
Market Model 76.0% 76.5%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.0%
Xi Jinping
Market Model 2.4% 0.8%
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Market Model 62.0% 51.2%
Before Jun 1, 2026
Market Model 91.9% 94.7%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 94.9% 96.4%
Yes
Market Model 5.9% 6.4%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 50.1%
Japan
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Italy
Market Model 9.9% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 6.1%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 61.8%
Saudi Arabia
Market Model 20.0% 7.5%
Lebanon
Market Model 24.0% 8.5%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Before July 2026
Market Model 2.8% 5.6%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 45.8%
Yes
Market Model 90.1% 91.4%
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 61.4%
Keir Starmer
Market Model 53.0% 44.4%
Sanae Takaichi
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Félix Tshisekedi
Market Model 15.0% 12.6%
Paul Kagame
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 1.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer Out? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 45.0% | 33.4% | High | $2,352,058.67 | Refresh |
| Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes
| 17.0% | 13.5% | Med | $7,688.02 | Refresh |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 25.0% | 12.9% | High | $673,841.38 | Refresh |
| Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | $292,187.31 | Refresh |
| When will JD Vance visit Pakistan? Top outcome: Before May 29, 2026 | 19.0% | 11.5% | High | $56,043.27 | Refresh |
| What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: China | 96.0% | 99.0% | Med | $491,673.01 | Refresh |
| Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 25.0% | 21.0% | Med | $32,740.93 | Refresh |
| Which world leaders will leave office in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 2.4% | 0.8% | Med | $2,935,701.8 | Refresh |
| When will Trump visit China? Top outcome: Before Jun 1, 2026 | 91.9% | 94.7% | High | $776,058.91 | Refresh |
| Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2026 | 5.9% | 6.4% | Med | $145,217.42 | Refresh |
| Will the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 50.1% | Med | $425,803.99 | Refresh |
| Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Top outcome: Japan | 11.0% | 4.6% | Med | $85,742.2 | Refresh |
| Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027 | 17.0% | 6.1% | High | $46,810 | Refresh |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 61.8% | Med | $1,045.61 | Refresh |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Top outcome: Saudi Arabia | 20.0% | 7.5% | Med | $240,954.09 | Refresh |
| Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 21.0% | 19.5% | Med | $1,488 | Refresh |
| Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $11,785.62 | Refresh |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Top outcome: Before July 2026 | 2.8% | 5.6% | High | $189,047.92 | Refresh |
| Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Yes refers to: Ending Jun 4, 2029 | 90.1% | 91.4% | Med | $12,659 | Refresh |
| EU has a new member before 2030? Yes refers to: Any country | 72.0% | 61.4% | Med | $6,654.8 | Refresh |
| Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer | 53.0% | 44.4% | Med | $35,601.87 | Refresh |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi | 15.0% | 12.6% | High | $9,487 | Refresh |
| Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars | 10.0% | 1.6% | Med | $56,620 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $544,271.76 |
