Will Trump do anything this week? (4/26-5/2)
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Donald Trump actively participated in his criminal trial this week.
- He faced a $9,000 fine for violating gag orders.
- Key witnesses provided testimony during Trump's criminal trial.
- He was warned of potential incarceration for future violations.
- Trump maintained a high volume of daily social media posts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 99.0% | 99.4% | Donald Trump's ongoing criminal trial and active social media presence ensure at least one action. |
| At least 2 | 96.0% | 97.4% | His active participation in a criminal trial and consistent social media use predict at least two actions. |
| At least 10 | 25.0% | 32.5% | Donald Trump's daily criminal trial activity, court rulings, and prolific social media use suggest at least ten actions. |
| At least 4 | 77.0% | 83.7% | Trump's criminal trial, gag order fine, and high social media volume suggest at least four actions. |
| At least 3 | 84.0% | 89.0% | Active trial engagement, a significant gag order ruling, and social media ensure at least three actions. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 27, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 65.0% to 77.0%
Outcome: At least 4
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump has taken at least 7 presidential actions between April 26, 2026, and May 2, 2026, as published on the "Presidential Actions" page at whitehouse.gov. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The count is verified at 10:00 AM ET on May 3, 2026, based solely on the visible publication dates on that specific page, including proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| At least 2 | $0.97 | $0.04 | 96% |
| At least 3 | $0.88 | $0.15 | 84% |
| At least 4 | $0.79 | $0.22 | 77% |
| At least 5 | $0.67 | $0.34 | 66% |
| At least 7 | $0.47 | $0.55 | 48% |
| At least 10 | $0.17 | $0.84 | 25% |
| At least 15 | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Key Developments Occurred in Trump's Trial, April 26 - May 2?
| David Pecker Testimony End Date | April 26, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| Keith Davidson Testimony Dates | April 30 - May 2, 2024 [^] |
| Gag Order Fine Amount | $9,000 for 9 violations [^] |
6. What is Donald Trump's campaign schedule for April 26 - May 2, 2024?
| Current Schedule Availability | Not possible to confirm for April 26 - May 2, 2024 (based on provided sources) [^] |
|---|---|
| 60 Minutes Interview (2026) | April 26, 2026 [^] |
| King Charles US Visit (2026) | Meeting with Trump on April 28, 2026 [^] |
7. What Key Economic Data is Released April 30, 2026?
| PCE Price Index Release | April 30, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Personal Income & Outlays Release | April 30, 2026 [^] |
| Biden Policy Announcements | None identified for April 26 - May 2, 2026 [^] |
8. Which States Hold Key Republican Primaries in Early May 2026?
| West Virginia Primary Date | May 12, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| WV Senate Primary Description | "GOP Senate Civil War" and closely contested battle [^] |
| Endorsement Impact Window | 10-16 days before May 12, 2026 primaries [^] |
9. What Is Donald Trump's Predicted Activity Level This Week?
| Avg. Truth Social Posts Daily | 14.5 posts per day [^] |
|---|---|
| Peak Daily Truth Social Posts | Often exceeds 20 posts [^] |
| Public Schedule Cadence | Regular events and appearances (March-April 2026) [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: May 03, 2026
- Expiration: August 01, 2026
- Closes: May 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 16 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T7: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T5: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T4: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T3: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T2: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
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