Trade what you believe.
Ready-made bundles of prediction-market bets, built with the Octagon Prediction CLI. Each basket spreads your money across several Kalshi contracts so a single wrong call cannot sink the whole position.
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- Elections
Fiscal Catalyst Cascade
The market is pricing the reconciliation bill as likely to pass through both chambers on time. We disagree on the dates, on the swing-vote moderates, and on whether the controversial line items survive conference.
- Macro
Inflation Persistence
The market is pricing the May CPI print as likely to come in below 4.3%. We think sticky services and energy pass-through will deliver an upside surprise.
- Macro
Fed Rate Path Dislocation
The market is pricing a 65% chance the Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. We think the right number is closer to 11%, and this basket bets No on that outcome.
- Equities
Hard Asset Rotation
Kalshi markets are pricing gold and bitcoin as likely to beat the S&P 500 in 2026. We think US equities lead the year, and this basket bets against the rotation.
- Macro
Recession Probability Mispricing
Most recession contracts on Kalshi are priced as if the US and UK move together. We think they decouple in 2026 — the UK avoids recession while the US ends in stagflation.
- Commodities
Energy Complex Cascade
The market is pricing the gap between international (Brent) and US (WTI) crude as likely to close. We think the geopolitical premium persists through year-end.
- Macro
Housing Stress Cluster
The market thinks US housing is strong — mortgage rates touch 6.7%, builders break ground on more than 1.4 million homes. We see the data pointing the other way.
- Elections
Trump Political Volatility
The market is pricing every Trump-related headline as if it will translate into actual policy or political change. We think the gap between rhetoric and action is bigger than the contracts assume.
- Macro
Labor Market Regime
The market thinks US unemployment stays near current levels through year-end. We see clearer signs that labor is already starting to crack.
- Elections
Supreme Court Volatility
The market is pricing the Supreme Court as if a nomination or retirement could happen before September. We think the next six months are status quo.
- AI / Tech
AI Model Race (Dec 2026)
The market is treating Anthropic as the heavy favorite to have the best AI model by end of 2026. We think Google's Gemini is the underpriced contender.
- Geopolitics
Geopolitical Status Quo
Prediction markets persistently over-price dramatic geopolitical outcomes — leader exits, summits, comprehensive deals. This basket bets against four of them at once.
- AI / Tech
Tech & Fed Power Watch
The market is pricing Musk as a 15% chance to be CEO of X by January 2027. We think he stays. Anchor of a basket on US tech and Fed institutional inertia.
Important disclosures
- Backtests are hypothetical. Returns shown on this page are computed from historical Kalshi candle data against the entry prices in the underlying Octagon research report. They do not reflect actual trading, slippage, fees, or order-routing latency.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prediction-market contracts are leveraged instruments with substantial risk of total loss. Any basket can lose 100% of the capital deployed in it.
- Not investment advice. Octagon AI Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, or commodity trading adviser. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any contract. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
- Order routing. Orders placed from this page route to Kalshi (KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated designated contract market). Fills are not guaranteed at the prices quoted; final fill prices depend on book depth at the time the order is received.
- Jurisdiction & eligibility. Kalshi contracts are available only to eligible participants in jurisdictions where Kalshi operates. Verify your eligibility with Kalshi before placing any order.
