Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Pam Bondi is most likely to leave her role in the Trump administration in 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Pete Hegseth faces risks from an alleged Pentagon investigation.
- Early 2026 cabinet turnover rate reached 20 percent.
- Peter Navarro's dissent reportedly aligns with the administration's agenda.
- Foreign policy crises in 2026 may challenge "America First" principles.
- Howard Lutnick faces significant pressure to resign over Epstein ties.
- Labor Secretary Chavez-DeRemer resigned in April 2026 for a private-sector role.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Scott | 26.0% | 14.5% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Kash Patel | 74.0% | 66.0% | High turnover is typical in presidential administrations, and key staff often seek new opportunities. |
| Pete Hegseth | 45.0% | 32.0% | Political appointees and media personalities may transition to new roles or return to private life. |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 57.0% | 45.3% | Political figures often transition roles or return to private life after a period of public service. |
| Howard Lutnick | 55.0% | 43.0% | Business leaders appointed to government positions frequently return to their private sector careers. |
Current Context
Several key officials departed the Trump administration by April 2026. As of April 21, 2026, three individuals have left their roles within the administration. Kristi Noem was removed from her position as Secretary of Homeland Security on March 6, 2026. Pam Bondi was also removed, serving as Attorney General until April 2, 2026. Most recently, Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned as Secretary of Labor on April 21, 2026 [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, tracking the probability of Kash Patel leaving his administration role in 2026, exhibits a clear downward trend, moving from an opening price of 81.0% to its current 71.0%. The contract has traded within a wide range, from a low of 68.0% to a high of 91.2%, indicating significant price discovery and shifting sentiment. The most notable event was a sharp 12.8 percentage point spike on April 25, 2026, which pushed the price from 78.0% to a peak of 90.8%. This surge was a direct reaction to a Politico news story which, citing a White House source, reported that Patel was likely to be the next cabinet-level official to depart. This news-driven peak near 91.2% established a clear resistance level for the market.
Following the spike, the market's conviction has waned considerably, with the price retracing its entire gain and falling further to its current level near the market's all-time low. This price action suggests traders are discounting the initial report, and the declining volume in the recent sample data points may indicate diminishing interest as no departure has materialized. The overall sentiment, as reflected by the chart, has shifted from a high degree of certainty about Patel's exit to one of increased doubt. While the 71.0% price still implies a departure is more likely than not, the sustained downward trend from both the opening price and the news-driven peak suggests that the market's confidence in a 2026 exit is eroding over time.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 25, 2026: 12.8pp spike
Price increased from 78.0% to 90.8%
Outcome: Kash Patel
What happened: The 12.8 percentage point spike for "Kash Patel" on 2026-04-25 was primarily driven by traditional news reporting. On that date, Politico's Dasha Burns, citing an anonymous White House source, reported that FBI Director Kash Patel was "likely the next Cabinet-level official to go" and that his departure was "only a matter of time" [^][^]. This reporting directly influenced market sentiment regarding his tenure, leading to the sharp increase [^]. While the White House publicly defended Patel the same day [^], no specific social media activity or viral narratives were identified as leading or coinciding with the price move, making social media mostly irrelevant as a primary driver.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the Lee Zeldin market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Lee Zeldin permanently vacates his role as EPA Administrator before January 1, 2027, through resignation, retirement, removal, or natural term expiration. If he remains in the role by January 1, 2027, 9:59 AM EST, or if the role ceases to exist without a successor, the market resolves to "No."
Special conditions include contracts resolving to the last fair price if he dies in office, and temporary leaves or suspensions do not count as leaving the role. The market opened on December 13, 2025, and will close early upon the event's occurrence or by the January 1, 2027 deadline.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Scott | $0.26 | $0.77 | 26% |
| Kash Patel | $0.73 | $0.29 | 74% |
| Todd Blanche | $0.78 | $0.27 | 72% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.58 | $0.43 | 57% |
| Amy Gleason | $0.58 | $0.43 | 56% |
| Howard Lutnick | $0.54 | $0.47 | 55% |
| Lee Zeldin | $0.51 | $0.50 | 50% |
| Pete Hegseth | $0.45 | $0.56 | 45% |
| Karoline Leavitt | $0.44 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Susie Wiles | $0.38 | $0.63 | 37% |
| Mike Huckabee | $0.36 | $0.69 | 35% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | $0.36 | $0.65 | 35% |
| Chris Wright | $0.32 | $0.70 | 32% |
| Linda McMahon | $0.29 | $0.75 | 29% |
| Peter Navarro | $0.25 | $0.78 | 26% |
| Steve Witkoff | $0.26 | $0.76 | 26% |
| Kelly Loeffler | $0.26 | $0.79 | 25% |
| Sean Duffy | $0.26 | $0.78 | 25% |
| Tom Homan | $0.26 | $0.76 | 25% |
| Brendan Carr | $0.24 | $0.82 | 24% |
| Bill Pulte | $0.24 | $0.81 | 23% |
| Russell Vought | $0.21 | $0.85 | 22% |
| Scott Bessent | $0.22 | $0.81 | 21% |
| Stephen Miller | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Doug Collins | $0.20 | $0.81 | 20% |
| Jamieson Greer | $0.21 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Mehmet Oz | $0.22 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Scott Turner | $0.23 | $0.79 | 20% |
| Doug Burgum | $0.21 | $0.82 | 19% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.20 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Brooke Rollins | $0.19 | $0.85 | 18% |
| John Ratcliffe | $0.23 | $0.81 | 17% |
| JD Vance | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of May 2026, while Donald Trump is serving his second term, public discussions and prediction markets do not widely report specific individuals predicted to leave their roles in the administration in 2026 [^]. However, it has been noted that as of April 21, 2026, two cabinet members had been removed and one had resigned during his second term [^]. Broader prediction markets have primarily focused on the probability of President Trump leaving office before January 2029, indicating a low likelihood of his early departure before 2027 [^].
5. Which Trump appointees, such as Tom Homan or Pete Hegseth, have policy portfolios or public profiles that present a higher risk of termination before 2027?
| Pete Hegseth specific risks | Alleged Pentagon investigation, reports of Trump's frustration with 'chaos' [^] |
|---|---|
| Tom Homan risk assessment | No comparable authoritative portfolio-level risk assessment [^] |
| Documented termination probability before 2027 | Not provided for Homan or Hegseth [^][^][^] |
Pete Hegseth faces specific potential risks to his tenure before 2027, unlike Tom Homan. These include an alleged Pentagon investigation and reports indicating that former President Trump was frustrated by "chaos" surrounding Hegseth [^]. However, the available research does not provide comparable authoritative, portfolio-level or profile-level risk assessments for Tom Homan [^].
Documented termination probabilities for specific appointees remain largely unavailable in the research. Despite commentary circulating about DHS Secretary Kristi Noem being fired, the sources do not offer a documented, portfolio-based probability of termination before 2027 for either Homan or Hegseth [^][^][^]. Market sentiment, such as Polymarket's "Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" event resolving around December 31, 2026, lists odds for other individuals, including Tulsi Gabbard (~35%) and "None before 2027" (~33%). Nevertheless, this reflects market speculation rather than corroborated reporting regarding termination risk for the specific individuals in question [^].
6. How does the cabinet turnover rate in the Trump administration during early 2026 compare to his first term and other modern presidencies?
| Trump Second Term Cabinet Turnover | 20% as of April 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Trump First Term Cabinet Turnover (1.5 years) | 35% [^] |
| Other Modern Presidencies Turnover (1.5 years) | 10% [^] |
Early 2026 saw a 20% cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration. As of April 2026, the administration experienced a 20% turnover rate, with 3 out of 15 cabinet positions changing [^]. Key departures during this period included Kristi Noem from Homeland Security on March 31, Pam Bondi from Attorney General on April 2, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer from Labor on April 20 [^].
The second term’s turnover is notably higher than modern presidential averages. The 20% cabinet turnover rate in the second term contrasts with a 35% turnover rate during the initial 1.5 years of his first term [^]. For the broader "A-Team," the turnover rate for a comparable 1.5-year period in the second term was 32%, slightly less than the 35% recorded in his first term [^]. This compares significantly higher than the average A-Team turnover for other modern presidencies, which stood at 10% at the 1.5-year mark [^]. During his entire first term (2017-2021), there were 14 total cabinet departures, with 7 occurring within the first two years [^].
7. How do Peter Navarro's and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s track records of public dissent compare, indicating their relative risk of clashing with the Trump administration in 2026?
| Navarro Appointment Role | Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing (January 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Kennedy Jr. Appointment Role | Secretary of Health and Human Services (February 2025) [^] |
| Navarro Dissent Alignment | Served radical interpretation of Trump's agenda (Rewarded by Trump) [^][^][^][^] |
Peter Navarro's dissent aligns with Trump's agenda, reducing clash risk. Appointed Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing in January 2025, Navarro is known for his confrontational approach to trade and frequently clashed with other officials over protectionist measures during Trump's first term [^][^][^][^]. Despite a conviction for defying a January 6th subpoena and public criticism, Trump reappointed him, praising his treatment, which indicates a strong personal and ideological alignment [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Navarro's dissent has primarily served a more radical interpretation of Trump's "America First" agenda, often directed at external entities or other administration officials, rather than directly at Trump himself [^][^][^][^]. As of September 2025, he continued to challenge the Trump Justice Department's stance in his contempt of Congress appeal [^].
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exhibits a high risk of administration conflict. Kennedy Jr., who assumed the role of Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) in February 2025, has a long history of challenging mainstream views, particularly on public health [^][^][^][^][^]. Since his 2025 confirmation, Kennedy's tenure has been marked by controversial actions, such as rolling back COVID-19 vaccine recommendations and firing CDC officials [^][^][^][^]. These actions have drawn significant criticism from medical communities, bipartisan members of Congress, and even his own family [^][^][^][^]. By April 2026, he publicly clashed with a Democratic Representative during a congressional hearing and reportedly delivered "tirades" to FDA staff, including "deep state" conspiracy theories [^][^].
Navarro's alignment lowers risk, while Kennedy's independence heightens it. Given Peter Navarro's history of dissent being aligned with and rewarded by Trump, he appears to present a lower risk of clashing with the administration in a manner that could lead to his departure [^][^][^][^]. Conversely, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent and often oppositional track record, coupled with immediate, widespread controversy and direct confrontations arising from his actions as HHS Secretary, suggests a relatively higher risk of clashing with the Trump administration in 2026 in a manner that could lead to his departure [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
8. What potential foreign policy crises in 2026 could precipitate the departure of national security officials like Kash Patel or Tulsi Gabbard?
| Confirmation Date | February 2025 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Potential Departure Year | 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Foreign Policy Approach | America First [^][^][^][^][^] |
Foreign policy crises in 2026 could challenge "America First" principles. Kash Patel and Tulsi Gabbard, both confirmed to their roles in February 2025, could face potential departures in 2026 due to various foreign policy crises [^][^][^][^]. Such events would likely challenge an "America First" foreign policy approach, which emphasizes transactional relationships, unilateral action, and a preference for hard power over multilateralism [^][^][^][^][^].
Diverse foreign policy crises could trigger official departures. These include major intelligence failures [^][^], military setbacks or unpopular interventions resulting in significant U.S. casualties or strategic defeats, which could generate immense political backlash [^]. Geopolitical conflicts with major powers like China or Russia, or with regional adversaries such as Iran or North Korea, could also trigger a crisis [^][^]. Crises in alliances or diplomatic breakdowns, often stemming from a transactional approach to international partnerships, could also lead to significant diplomatic issues [^][^][^].
Officials' specific roles and past criticisms increase their vulnerability. Tulsi Gabbard, as the Director of National Intelligence, would face intense scrutiny following major intelligence failures, given her stated priorities to "end the politicization of the intelligence community" [^][^]. During these events, Kash Patel's previous criticisms of the FBI and the "deep state" could intensify calls for his departure if the bureau's performance is questioned [^][^]. Any foreign policy crisis that generates significant domestic political opposition or exposes perceived disloyalty or incompetence could ultimately lead to departures, even for strong loyalists like Patel and Gabbard [^][^][^][^].
9. What public statements or business entanglements suggest financial appointees like Howard Lutnick or Scott Bessent may have a shorter tenure in 2026?
| Lutnick chance of leaving Cabinet | 53% (Polymarket) / 28% (Kalshi) [^] |
|---|---|
| Lutnick resignation demanded | March 10, 2026 [^] |
| Bessent assets for divestment | at least two dozen assets [^] |
Howard Lutnick faces significant pressure to resign due to Epstein ties. Renewed calls for his resignation emerged after close questioning regarding his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein during congressional testimony on May 5, 2026 [^]. Watchdog organizations, including Democracy Defenders Fund and Public Citizen, publicly demanded his resignation on March 10, 2026, citing alleged inconsistent statements and potential ethics and conflict issues [^]. Betting markets reflect increased uncertainty about his tenure; Newsweek reported Lutnick's chance of leaving the Trump Cabinet in 2026 rose to 53% in Polymarket/Kalshi-style odds, with a Kalshi figure of 28% for being the next cabinet leaver, amidst the fallout from Epstein-file mentions [^].
Scott Bessent's tenure is questioned amid ethics and divestment concerns. He faces significant ethics-conflict issues stemming from his alleged failure to divest "at least two dozen assets" within a 90-day ethics deadline [^]. The Campaign Legal Center and Democracy Defenders Fund formally requested investigations by the Office of Government Ethics (OGE) and the Treasury Inspector General into these allegations [^]. Reports from August 13, 2025, indicated Bessent had not fully completed the divestment of relevant holdings, confirming this ethics dispute remained unresolved entering 2026 [^]. Additionally, his public stance on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's potential departure in May 2026 signals potential intra-administration friction, though this is a less direct indicator of an early exit than the divestment allegations [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Recent changes in the cabinet include the resignation of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20, 2026, who left for a private-sector position, with Keith Sonderling subsequently becoming acting labor secretary [^] [^] [^] . This occurred after Kristi Noem was fired as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 and Pam Bondi was ousted or left as Attorney General earlier in April 2026, prior to Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets are actively tracking potential future cabinet departures. On Polymarket, a contract titled "who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" shows Tulsi Gabbard as the leading outcome at 35%, followed by "None before 2027" at 33% [^]. Another Polymarket contract, "Trump cabinet member out by…?", is defined by whether at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee leaves their position between the market's creation and March 31, 2026, excluding acting officials [^]. Furthermore, a Defirate write-up, referencing Kalshi and Polymarket, highlights trader interest in whether FBI Director Kash Patel will be removed, noting growing exit risk as a monitored prediction narrative [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Recent changes in the cabinet include the resignation of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer on April 20, 2026, who left for a private-sector position, with Keith Sonderling subsequently becoming acting labor secretary [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This occurred after Kristi Noem was fired as Homeland Security Secretary in March 2026 and Pam Bondi was ousted or left as Attorney General earlier in April 2026, prior to Chavez-DeRemer’s resignation [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets are actively tracking potential future cabinet departures.
- Trigger: On Polymarket, a contract titled "who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?" shows Tulsi Gabbard as the leading outcome at 35%, followed by "None before 2027" at 33% [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 4 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-DSAC: YES (Mar 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-LCHA: YES (Apr 21, 2026)
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PBON: YES (Apr 07, 2026)
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KNOE: YES (Mar 24, 2026)
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