Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Pam Bondi to leave her role in the Trump administration in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Marco Rubio's free trade history conflicts with 'America First' policy.
- Russell Vought's specific policy agenda may create vulnerabilities.
- Pam Bondi and Pete Hegseth hold favorable state-level election prospects.
- Tom Homan and Kash Patel face scrutiny regarding financial disclosures.
- Negative media reports often preceded previous Trump administration departures.
- Significant market price spikes occurred in April 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Scott | 23.0% | 12.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Kash Patel | 78.0% | 71.1% | No specific evidence or citations were provided regarding Kash Patel's potential departure from a future Trump administration, offering no new information to shift the debiased probability. |
| Pete Hegseth | 46.0% | 33.1% | No specific evidence regarding Pete Hegseth's potential departure from the Trump administration in 2026 was provided in the background research, leading to a neutral score relative to the debiased anchor. |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 60.0% | 48.8% | No specific information or evidence concerning Tulsi Gabbard's potential departure from a Trump administration by 2026 was provided, offering no basis to assess the market's position. |
| Howard Lutnick | 54.0% | 41.8% | The provided background research pertains exclusively to Marco Rubio's trade history and does not contain any information about Howard Lutnick. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which asks if a member of a hypothetical Trump administration will leave their role in 2026, has shown a consistent upward trend since its inception. The probability started at 63.0% and has fluctuated within a wide range, bottoming out at 50.0% and peaking at 91.2%. The current price of 78.0% indicates that traders believe there is a high likelihood of a departure. The most significant price movement was a sharp 12.8 percentage point spike on April 25, when the probability jumped from 78.0% to 90.8%. However, based on the provided information, there is no specific news or event to explain the catalyst for this sudden increase in perceived probability.
The trading volume provides insight into market conviction. With over 204,000 contracts traded in total, the market is highly active. The volume has increased significantly in the latter half of April, coinciding with the price volatility, which suggests that conviction grew stronger around these price movements. The peak of 91.2% has established a clear resistance level, as the price was unable to sustain that high and has since pulled back. The current price level around 78.0% appears to be a point of consolidation, having served as a jumping-off point for the previous spike.
Overall, market sentiment has remained consistently bullish on the prospect of a departure, never dropping to a point where it was considered unlikely. The sharp spike to over 90% indicates a period of near-certainty among traders, though the subsequent retreat to 78.0% suggests some of that conviction has waned or that traders are taking profits. The high trading volume confirms that this is a closely watched market where participants are actively reassessing the probability as time progresses.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Kash Patel
📈 April 25, 2026: 12.8pp spike
Price increased from 78.0% to 90.8%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Tulsi Gabbard
📈 April 21, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 58.0% to 70.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Karoline Leavitt formally and permanently vacates her role as White House Press Secretary before January 1, 2027. The market resolves to "No" if she remains in the role by the market close on January 1, 2027, 9:59 AM EST, or potentially if the role ceases to exist without a plausible successor. Temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, and a departure due to death may result in settlement at the last fair price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney Scott | $0.24 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Kash Patel | $0.80 | $0.21 | 78% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.60 | $0.41 | 60% |
| Todd Blanche | $0.60 | $0.42 | 58% |
| Amy Gleason | $0.59 | $0.43 | 57% |
| Lee Zeldin | $0.55 | $0.48 | 55% |
| Howard Lutnick | $0.55 | $0.46 | 54% |
| Karoline Leavitt | $0.52 | $0.49 | 52% |
| Pete Hegseth | $0.47 | $0.54 | 46% |
| Susie Wiles | $0.46 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Chris Wright | $0.40 | $0.62 | 37% |
| Mike Huckabee | $0.45 | $0.60 | 34% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | $0.33 | $0.68 | 32% |
| Bill Pulte | $0.34 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Steve Witkoff | $0.32 | $0.73 | 27% |
| Tom Homan | $0.26 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Linda McMahon | $0.25 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Peter Navarro | $0.26 | $0.77 | 23% |
| Mehmet Oz | $0.23 | $0.78 | 22% |
| Scott Turner | $0.24 | $0.78 | 22% |
| John Ratcliffe | $0.24 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Scott Bessent | $0.22 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Sean Duffy | $0.25 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Stephen Miller | $0.23 | $0.79 | 21% |
| Brooke Rollins | $0.23 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Kelly Loeffler | $0.25 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.21 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Brendan Carr | $0.24 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Doug Collins | $0.20 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Doug Burgum | $0.21 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Russell Vought | $0.20 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Jamieson Greer | $0.19 | $0.85 | 15% |
| JD Vance | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Discussion for this market is sparse for the currently listed individuals. One trader predicts Karoline Leavitt will leave based on "wishful thinking," while another bets Pete Hegseth will not, citing his continued presence in the role. Much of the recent activity, however, revolves around Kash Patel, whose departure seemingly resolved to "Yes" for some traders, leading to profit-taking and accusations of insider trading.
5. Does Marco Rubio's Trade History Conflict with America First Policies?
| Rubio's 2016 Tariff View | Tariffs are "taxes on consumers" [^] |
|---|---|
| Agenda 47 Trade Policy | Protectionist economic policies, often including broad tariffs [^] |
| Mike Waltz on NATO Funding | Criticized European allies for not meeting defense commitments [^] |
Marco Rubio's past trade positions contradict 'Agenda 47's protectionist policies. Rubio has a documented history of advocating for free trade, stating in 2016 that "free trade supports jobs, helps consumers and promotes economic growth" and characterizing tariffs as "taxes on consumers" [^]. These historical views directly clash with the protectionist trade policies central to the America First Policy Institute's 'Agenda 47' platform and the broader 'America First' movement [^]. While more recent reports indicate a shift in his stance towards supporting tariffs, aligning with a protectionist view, his well-documented past positions represent a significant ideological departure [^]. If appointed to a role requiring strict adherence to 'Agenda 47's protectionist trade agenda, this historical record of opposition could create friction, potentially leading to a policy-driven resignation.
Mike Waltz's NATO funding statements align with 'America First' principles. In contrast, Mike Waltz's public statements concerning NATO funding do not clearly contradict the tenets of 'Agenda 47'. Waltz has openly criticized European allies for failing to meet their defense spending commitments, deeming such inaction "unacceptable" [^]. This position is consistent with the 'America First' platform's emphasis on greater burden-sharing by NATO allies, thus not suggesting a high likelihood of a policy-driven resignation on the specific issue of NATO funding [^].
6. Which Key Individuals Lead Project 2025 and Are Most Vulnerable?
| Russell Vought's Primary Role | Director of Project 2025's Presidential Transition Project [^] |
|---|---|
| Mark Meadows' Organizational Affiliation | Senior Partner at Conservative Partnership Institute (CPI) [^] |
| Cleta Mitchell's Organizational Affiliation | Senior Legal Fellow at Conservative Partnership Institute (CPI) [^] |
Russell Vought is deeply tied to Project 2025's specific policy agenda. He serves as the Director of its Presidential Transition Project [^]. His organization, the Center for Renewing America (CRA), is a key partner to Project 2025 and is heavily involved in developing detailed policy proposals for the "Mandate for Leadership" [^]. This direct leadership role and the close integration of CRA with Project 2025's detailed blueprint mean his influence is largely dependent on the success and adoption of this particular faction's vision for a future administration. Should rival factions with different policy priorities gain sway, Vought's prominent association with Project 2025 could make him a target for being sidelined.
Other conservatives, while influential, may face different vulnerabilities. Mark Meadows, former White House Chief of Staff, serves as a Senior Partner at the Conservative Partnership Institute (CPI) [^], while Cleta Mitchell is listed as a Senior Legal Fellow at CPI [^]. CPI itself is described as a critical entity for staffing and shaping a potential future administration [^]. While Meadows and Mitchell wield significant influence within the broader conservative movement through CPI, their vulnerability primarily stems from CPI's overall alignment. In contrast, Vought's direct leadership of Project 2025's comprehensive transition plan makes him more singularly embedded with the specific outcomes and political fortunes of that distinct policy faction.
7. What are the Favorable Political Calendars for Bondi and Hegseth?
| Pam Bondi's Earliest Senate Opportunity | 2028 (Florida U.S. Senate Class 3 seat) [^] |
|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth's Key Election Year | 2030 (Minnesota Governor or U.S. Senate Class 1 seat) [^], [^] |
| Recommended Federal Post Resignation | Late 2026 (to establish residency and fundraise) [^] |
Pam Bondi has several advantageous state-level election opportunities in Florida. As a former Florida Attorney General [^], Bondi maintains strong ties to the state. She could pursue a gubernatorial run in 2030, which is the next election cycle after 2026 [^]. Alternatively, two U.S. Senate seats present potential windows: Senator Marco Rubio's seat in 2028 [^] and Senator Rick Scott's seat in 2030 [^]. A strategic resignation from a federal position in late 2026 would provide approximately 18 months for a 2028 Senate race or over three years for a 2030 bid, allowing ample time to fulfill residency requirements and initiate fundraising [^].
Pete Hegseth also faces favorable 2030 election prospects in Minnesota. A Minnesota native [^], Hegseth would find the 2030 election calendar particularly advantageous for state-level office. Minnesota's gubernatorial elections align with midterm cycles, making 2030 the next opportunity after 2026 [^]. Furthermore, Senator Amy Klobuchar's U.S. Senate seat is up for election in 2030 [^]. Resigning from a federal post in late 2026 would provide Hegseth more than three years to establish residency in Minnesota and build a robust campaign for a 2030 election.
Strategic resignations in late 2026 address critical state residency requirements. Candidates for state offices typically face specific residency requirements, such as Florida's gubernatorial law requiring seven years of residency prior to the election [^]. The proposed timeline of a late 2026 federal post resignation is designed to provide sufficient time for both Pam Bondi and Pete Hegseth to meet these varied state residency qualifications and successfully launch their fundraising campaigns for potential 2028 or 2030 elections.
8. What are Tom Homan's and Kash Patel's key appointment vulnerabilities?
| Tom Homan Undisclosed Income | Approximately $130,000 [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Tom Homan Alleged Bribery Sum | $50,000 [^], [^] |
| Kash Patel Foreign Clients | Embassy of Qatar, Czechoslovak Group, Shenzhen Globalegrow E-Commerce Co. [^], [^], [^] |
Tom Homan faces scrutiny over financial disclosure inconsistencies and a past investigation. The Campaign Legal Center (CLC) filed a complaint alleging that Homan failed to disclose approximately $130,000 in income from immigration-related companies on his 2020 financial report [^], [^]. This alleged omission included discrepancies between his reported income and public statements about earning a "tremendous amount of money" [^]. Furthermore, Homan was previously investigated by the Department of Justice in 2009 for allegedly accepting $50,000 in cash from FBI agents during an undercover bribery probe. This investigation was reportedly shut down by the Trump Justice Department without a final resolution, and Homan did not undergo a normal background check during that period [^], [^].
Kash Patel's foreign business ties present significant conflict of interest risks. Patel has consulted for multiple foreign entities, including the Embassy of Qatar, where his work involved helping to "facilitate discussions" with U.S. government officials [^], [^]. His client roster also included the Czechoslovak Group, a Czech arms manufacturer, and Shenzhen Globalegrow E-Commerce Co., the parent company of the fast-fashion retailer Shein [^], [^]. These consulting arrangements have raised concerns about potential clashes between his clients' interests and U.S. national security or foreign policy, especially if he were to hold a high-level government position [^], [^].
9. Did Negative Media Reports Precede Trump Administration Departures?
| USAID Inspector General Dismissal | Days after OAN report criticizing aid pause [^] |
|---|---|
| CIA Official Firing | Followed OAN report on involvement with military's COVID-19 vaccine mandate [^] |
| National Security Council Staffers Fired | After OAN report involving Laura Loomer meeting [^] |
Negative media reports from specific outlets often preceded official departures. Several instances show negative media coverage from Breitbart News or One America News Network (OAN) coinciding with or immediately preceding the departure of Trump administration officials. For example, a USAID Inspector General was dismissed days after an OAN report [^]. Similarly, an unnamed CIA official was fired following OAN reporting concerning her involvement with the military's COVID-19 vaccine mandate [^]. Furthermore, multiple National Security Council staffers were dismissed after an OAN report detailed a meeting between President Trump and Laura Loomer [^]. H.R. McMaster, then National Security Adviser, also faced extensive critical coverage from Breitbart News in August 2017, with reports accusing him of purging loyalists and being hostile to Trump [^].
Research did not allow analysis of pre-existing negative relationships. The provided research did not include a specific list of individuals from the prediction market, which prevented an analysis of their pre-existing negative relationships or histories with Breitbart News or OAN [^]. The available information focused primarily on instances where negative reporting by these outlets immediately preceded or coincided with official dismissals, rather than detailing long-standing negative relationships prior to specific incidents.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 07, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 4 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-DSAC: YES (Mar 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-LCHA: YES (Apr 21, 2026)
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PBON: YES (Apr 07, 2026)
- KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-KNOE: YES (Mar 24, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
