Who will be arrested before 2027?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Ed Martin and Bill Pulte face federal grand jury investigations.
- Most federal felonies have a standard five-year statute of limitations.
- Pam Bondi plans strong prosecutorial focus as potential Attorney General.
- Donald Trump faces substantial state-level criminal indictment exposure.
- A federal target letter often signals a coming indictment.
- The market saw a significant price drop on April 15, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | 75.0% | 67.3% | The provided background research details active grand jury investigations for other former officials but contains no information or specific citations related to James Comey, providing a neutral basis for assessing his arrest probability against the debiased market anchor. |
| Barack Obama | 11.0% | 4.6% | The provided background research details investigations concerning other former officials but offers no information or citations related to Barack Obama, providing no evidence to shift from the debiased market price. |
| Letitia James | 17.0% | 8.1% | The provided background research details investigations into Ed Martin, Bill Pulte, and John Brennan, offering no specific information or allegations concerning Letitia James to support or contradict the market's assessment of her potential arrest. |
| Hillary Clinton | 13.0% | 5.7% | The provided background research focuses exclusively on Ed Martin, Bill Pulte, and John Brennan, offering no information or citations regarding Hillary Clinton or any potential investigation or arrest concerning her, thereby providing no basis to adjust the debiased probability. |
| John Brennan | 67.0% | 64.8% | John Brennan is the subject of an active federal grand jury investigation with subpoenaed witnesses, providing strong evidence for potential arrest, yet an ongoing investigation does not guarantee an indictment or subsequent arrest. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 15, 2026: 11.9pp drop
Price decreased from 13.0% to 1.1%
Outcome: Lee Jun-seok
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Mahmoud Khalil is arrested before January 1, 2027; this includes voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on September 6, 2025, and will close early if the arrest occurs, or by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST if no arrest is made.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| John Brennan | $0.66 | $0.38 | 67% |
| Mahmoud Khalil | $0.44 | $0.63 | 39% |
| James Clapper | $0.31 | $0.76 | 31% |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | $0.28 | $0.78 | 30% |
| Adam Schiff | $0.18 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Letitia James | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.14 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Loretta Lynch | $0.11 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Susan Rice | $0.10 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Barack Obama | $0.10 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Candace Owens | $0.11 | $0.94 | 11% |
| Gavin Newsom | $0.08 | $0.94 | 10% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | $0.14 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Bill Clinton | $0.10 | $0.92 | 9% |
| John Kerry | $0.10 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Pam Bondi | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Tom Homan | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Kash Patel | $0.09 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Anthony Fauci | $0.06 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Brandon Johnson | $0.11 | $0.94 | 5% |
| Lisa Cook | $0.06 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Lee Jun-seok | $0.12 | $0.93 | 1% |
| Joe Biden | $0.05 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders show strong confidence that James Comey (75%) and John Brennan (67%) will be arrested before 2027, with some speculating that a recent price surge for Comey indicates "insider info" or an impending indictment. While Benjamin Netanyahu is also discussed, opinion is divided, with some betting Yes due to potential "house arrest" scenarios, and others suggesting No unless a formal indictment occurs. The overall market shows high conviction for the arrests of Comey and Brennan.
5. Which Former Officials Are Under Federal Grand Jury Investigation?
| Ed Martin & Bill Pulte Status | Subjects of federal grand jury investigations for alleged misconduct and improper leaking of grand jury materials [^] |
|---|---|
| Ed Martin Specific Allegation | Found to have improperly leaked grand jury material in a probe targeting the president's foes [^] |
| John Brennan Status | Subject of active federal grand jury investigation with witnesses subpoenaed to testify [^] |
6. When Do Federal Statutes of Limitations Expire for Key Public Figures?
| Standard Federal Felony Statute of Limitations | Five years [^] |
|---|---|
| Expiration for Clinton, Comey, Brennan (most alleged offenses) | Before January 1, 2027 [^] |
| Expiration for Fauci (2022 alleged offenses) | Extends into 2027 [^] |
7. What Are Pam Bondi's Prosecutorial Intentions as Potential Attorney General?
| Prosecutorial Focus | Prosecute "bad" prosecutors who indicted Trump [^] |
|---|---|
| Investigative Scope | Investigate "Trump foes" if appointed Attorney General [^] |
| Political Affiliation | Identified as a "Project 2025 lawyer" [^] |
8. Which Public Figures Face State-Level Indictment Exposure?
| Donald Trump Legal Status | Convicted on 34 felony counts (May 30, 2024) [^] |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump Prosecution Type | State-level criminal (New York) [^] |
| Chad Bianco Legal Action | State lawsuit by CA Attorney General (challenging authority) [^] |
9. What is the Timeline from Federal Target Letter to Indictment?
| Timeline after target letter | Highly variable, weeks to over a year [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Average time to indictment | Often 1-3 months [^], [^] |
| Evidence for specific individuals | No direct evidence in provided sources [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 02, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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