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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
New York M pro baseball wins this season?
At 76c, market prices higher than the 59.2% model, suggesting overvaluation given the Mets' poor record.
Djere vs Nava
At 54c, market prices Emilio Nava wins higher than 51.8% model, despite Djere's clay specialization.
Will Justin Bieber have a #1 hit this year?
Model's 22.2% probability versus the 15c market suggests a 6.7x payout multiple, implying undervaluation of Bieber's current relevance.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.