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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Valspar Championship Top 20 Finisher
Model predicts 0% probability against 12c market (8.3x payout), with no players meeting specific criteria.
USD/BRL high in 2026
Model predicts 75% probability versus 52c market price (+23pp gap), citing significant monetary policy divergence.
When will DHS be funded again?
Model's 3.1% probability is below 8c market price (12.5x payout multiple), with no immediate legislative off-ramp.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.