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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Core inflation in Apr 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
Model probability (99.2%) is slightly above the 99c market (99.0%) due to persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.
US gas prices this week
Model sees 99.2% probability (+0.2 pp vs 99c market) reflecting continued upward pressure on gas prices.
Gas prices in the US in May 2026?
Market at 99c closely aligns with the 98.9% model, but Strait of Hormuz disruption poses significant upside risk.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.