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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
Octagon's 26.9% probability is below 50c market price, amid 2025 institutional ETF rebalancing and LTH distribution.
Fed funds rate after Mar 2026 meeting?
Model and market align at 2.0% for this unlikely Fed rate outcome, offering a 50x payout multiple.
Unemployment in January 2026?
Model sees 89% probability for January 2026 unemployment, a +18pp gap from the 71c market, implying a 1.4x payout.
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Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.