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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Next Fed rate hike?
Model's 3% probability is 47pp below the 50c market, likely due to expected significant wage growth deceleration.
When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
Model sees 95% probability vs 34.5c market, implying 2.9x payout multiple if Pro/Air iPhone 18 avoid delays.
Stetson at Eastern Kentucky
Octagon's 27.5% model probability versus the 72.5% market price for EKY shows a -45.0pp gap, suggesting overvaluation.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.