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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Game 5: Minnesota at Denver
Model's 81.9% probability, 0.9pp above market, reflects Denver's key player performance and home advantage.
Sabalenka vs Osaka
Model's 70.8% probability for Sabalenka winning exceeds the 60c market price by 10.8pp, suggesting a 1.7x payout multiple.
Series Winner: Toronto (5) vs Cleveland (4)
At 80c (1.2x payout), market prices Cleveland's win higher than the 76.9% model, despite Allen's knee issue.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.