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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Texas Children's Houston Open: Top 20 Finishers
Market at 4c prices 2.6pp above the 1.4% model estimate, suggesting potential overvaluation of Top 20 finishers.
Men's Semifinals Qualifiers
Market prices higher than the 30.8% model at 34c, implying a 2.9x payout if the model is correct.
How long will the government shutdown last?
Model sees 100% probability versus 99c market price, despite research strongly negating such a long shutdown.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.