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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Bitcoin price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Model's 99.4% slightly exceeds market's 99.0c probability, citing strong institutional ETF inflows and miner accumulation.
What will Trump say during his roundtable on No Tax on Tips?
Market at 1c is 0.6pp above the 0.4% model, potentially overvaluing the "No Tax on Tips" focus.
Copper price on Apr 16, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Model sees 99.1% probability vs 91c market price, implying an 8.1-point gap for copper's elevated supply-squeezed price.
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Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.