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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Arizona's 4th District margin of victory
Model and market (90.5%, 90c) align on Stanton's larger margin, driven by a favorable D+4 environment (1.1x).
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?
Model sees 75.4% chance with strong catalysts, but market at 78c indicates potential overvaluation.
Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Market prices at 93c, 2.2 points above the 90.8% model, despite Jersey Mike's 2026 IPO announcement.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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Financials, filings, and fundamentals for 8,000+ public companies. 10 years of history updated in real time.
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Funding rounds, M&A, and company data before it hits the news. 3M+ companies, 4M+ people, 500k+ funds, and 2M+ deals tracked.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.