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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Model estimates 3.8% versus 4c market, implying overvaluation by 0.7pp amid Senate independence concerns.
St. John's at UConn
St. John's 40% model probability vs. 32c market price suggests a 3.1x payout, with their rebounding edge being key.
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Market's 50% AGI probability is 40 points higher than the 10% model, suggesting overvaluation given its rigorous criteria.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.