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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
Model's 23% probability (vs 19c market) implies a 5.3x payout multiple, noting 10% decline requires sustained outmigration.
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?
Model's 23.1% for Ding Xuexiang is 2.1pp above 21c, reflecting his 'most trusted aide' status and commission leadership.
When will any company achieve AGI?
The Octagon model is 0.5pp below the 6c market, despite dark horse AGI entities increasing early announcement likelihood.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.