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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Will Nick Bosa and Ella Ailiff be engaged before 2027?
Model and market align at 26%, reflecting Nick Bosa's demanding career and their relationship's late 2025 public launch.
Gwangju vs Seoul
With a -2.5pp gap (model 9.5% vs market 12.0%), the market appears to overvalue Gwangju given their severe crisis.
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next?
Market at 4c prices 2.6 percentage points higher than the 1.4% model, despite Ronaldo's contract confirmed until 2027.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.