Find the edge in every prediction market.
Comprehensive research reports that compare model probabilities to live market prices for every active prediction market contract. Cited to source, updated around the clock.
Currently covering 1k+ Kalshi markets. Polymarket coming soon.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Octagon's 0.5% model implies a 100x payout at 1c, contrasting the market's 1.0% amid ongoing high-risk, low-traffic conditions.
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
Model sees 2.7% probability versus 8c market, implying 13.2x payout given Trump's proposed FY 2027 net spending increase.
How low will Ethereum get in 2026?
Model (84%) sees a 1 percentage point lower probability than the 85c market, driven by bearish forecasts and ETF outflows.
Latest Strategy Baskets
Each basket bundles multiple Kalshi contracts around a single thesis — with the disagreement explained and the legs sized.
Fed Rate Path Dislocation
The market is pricing a 65% chance the Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. We think the right number is closer to 11%, and this basket bets No on that outcome.
AI Model Race (Dec 2026)
The market is treating Anthropic as the heavy favorite to have the best AI model by end of 2026. We think Google's Gemini is the underpriced contender.
Fiscal Catalyst Cascade
The market is pricing the reconciliation bill as likely to pass through both chambers on time. We disagree on the dates, on the swing-vote moderates, and on whether the controversial line items survive conference.
One platform. Four ways in.
Pick the surface that fits your workflow — they share the same underlying intelligence.
Reports
Continuously-updated research on every active Kalshi event. Cited sources, model probabilities, executive summaries.
News
Price moves that matter, surfaced as they happen. Filter by category, jump to the report behind each move.
CLI
Trade prediction markets from your terminal. Natural-language agent, edge detection, Kelly-sized baskets.
API
21 typed REST endpoints. Semantic search, thematic clusters, basket construction, edge ranking. The CLI runs on it.
The edge engine, end to end.
A single pipeline reads every market, models the probability, and tells you where the price disagrees.
- 01
Read every market
Octagon scrapes Kalshi's full universe, embeds it, and clusters it nightly into thematic and behavioral groups.
GET /kalshi/markets · /clusters - 02
Model the probability
Per-event research agents read sources, weigh drivers, and produce a model probability with confidence — every claim cited.
GET /prediction-markets/events - 03
Compare to live price
Edge = model − market. Surfaced in Reports, the Live Edge feed, the News stream, and via a single API endpoint.
GET /kalshi/markets-with-edge
$ curl https://api.octagonai.co/v1/kalshi/markets-with-edge \
-H "Authorization: Bearer $OCTAGON_API_KEY" \
--data-urlencode "min_edge=5" \
--data-urlencode "sort_by=expected_return" \
--data-urlencode "limit=10"
→ 10 markets · ranked by model edge · ready to tradeResearch you can verify
- Every claim links to its source
- Reports refresh as new information appears
- Model probabilities vs market prices side by side
- Access via API or MCP for your own workflows
- Model probability and edge tracked on every report — every prediction stamped, sourced, and auditable
Integrates with your existing tools
Start with a free trial
15 days free. Cancel anytime.
Plus
✔ Access to all Agents (Prediction Markets, Public Markets, Deep Research)
✔ 200 Credits per month
✔ Add-on credits at $50 per 500 credits
✔ MCP and OpenAI Compatible
✔ Unlimited API Keys
✔ Technical Support
✔ 15-Day Free Trial
Pro
✔ 600 Credits per month
✔ Access to historical Prediction Markets reports
Enterprise
✔ Customized Credits
✔ Unlimited team access
✔ Customized Workflows Available
Credit Usage per Agent
Start finding edge in prediction markets.
Read the research, install the CLI, hit the API — whichever surface fits your workflow.
