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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Emmy Award for Drama Actress
Model's 58% probability for 2.0x payout implies market undervaluation at 50c, driven by critical acclaim and a Golden Globe win.
Bitcoin price on Apr 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
The model and market align at 99%, despite conflicting ETF inflow data contradicting base assumptions.
New York Y vs Tampa Bay
Market at 55c prices 2.8pp above 52.2% model, suggesting overvaluation given professional money on Rays.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.