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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
Model and market align at 20.5%, reflecting Hermes' FSER timeline against a critical September 2026 commission vote.
How much will core PCE increase in Apr 2026?
At 96c, market prices higher than the 95% model, implying a -1.5pp gap and a 1.0x payout.
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
Model and market probabilities align at 1% for an IPO, suggesting a 100x payout, reflecting low ARPU and regulatory risks.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.