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Deep research reports with cited sources and probability analysis. Compare model forecasts against market prices to find mispriced opportunities.
Latest Research Reports
Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
International-Born Players Drafted in 1st Round
Model's 98.8% probability versus 0c market price indicates a +98.8% gap, driven by strong international prospect consensus.
When will Playboi Carti release a new song?
Model's 35% probability, 2 points above the 33c market, suggests a 3.0x payout, as "Baby Boi" is confirmed complete.
Tien vs Bublik
At 36c, the market prices Tien higher than the 28.4% model estimate, suggesting overvaluation.
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Prediction Markets
Research reports on Kalshi events (Polymarket coming soon). See what's driving prices, compare market vs model probabilities, and find potential mispricings.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.