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Each report tracks a single market question with cited sources and probability analysis
Pro Basketball All-Defensive 1st Team Selections
At 99c, the market slightly exceeds the 98.7% model estimate, implying marginal overvaluation.
Who will dissent at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?
Model's 0.6% probability is 3.4 percentage points below the 4c market, despite potential hawkish dissenters and diverging views.
How many straight weeks will 'SWAG' be #1?
Model at 0.1% versus market's 1.0% implies 'SWAG' never reached #1, suggesting a 100x payout at 0% probability.
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See what's driving the odds
Browse our research reports on active Kalshi markets. Find the sources, see the probabilities, spot the edge.