By 2025
Market Model 5.0% 2.9%
By 2030
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
Climate and Weather Markets
Active Markets (5)
Yes
Market Model 31.5% 31.5%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 82.1%
Oil
Market Model 40.0% 44.7%
Solar
Market Model 6.0% 6.3%
Yes
Market Model 41.0% 24.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US meets its climate goals? Top outcome: By 2025 | 5.0% | 2.9% | High | $50,781 | Refresh |
| Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2050 | 31.5% | 31.5% | Med | $22,942 | Refresh |
| Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? Yes refers to: Before 2050 | 80.0% | 82.1% | Med | $11,483 | Refresh |
| 40.0% | 44.7% | High | $79,853 | Refresh | |
| Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? Yes refers to: Before 2035 | 41.0% | 24.2% | Med | $18,007 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (11)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
