75° or below
Market Model 2.0% 2.8%
80° to 81°
Market Model 19.0% 17.5%
Climate and Weather Markets
Active Markets (10)
Above 7 inches
Market Model 46.0% 38.3%
Above 4 inches
Market Model 87.0% 82.0%
1.17 to 1.23
Market Model 52.0% 50.9%
1.10 to 1.16
Market Model 19.0% 21.8%
Yes
Market Model 47.0% 67.0%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 32.7%
By 2025
Market Model 5.0% 2.9%
By 2030
Market Model 18.0% 10.5%
Yes
Market Model 31.5% 31.5%
Yes
Market Model 80.0% 82.1%
Oil
Market Model 40.0% 44.7%
Solar
Market Model 6.0% 6.3%
Yes
Market Model 41.0% 24.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 4, 2026? Top outcome: 75° or below | 2.0% | 2.8% | High | $5,231.5 | Refresh |
| Rain in Houston in May 2026? Top outcome: Above 7 inches | 46.0% | 38.3% | High | $6,610 | Refresh |
| Apr 2026 temperature increase? Top outcome: 1.17 to 1.23 | 52.0% | 50.9% | Med | $12,103.43 | Refresh |
| 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 47.0% | 67.0% | Med | $21,384.42 | Refresh |
| EU meets its 2030 climate goals? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 42.0% | 32.7% | Med | $3,016.64 | Refresh |
| US meets its climate goals? Top outcome: By 2025 | 5.0% | 2.9% | High | $50,781 | Refresh |
| Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2050 | 31.5% | 31.5% | Med | $22,942 | Refresh |
| Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? Yes refers to: Before 2050 | 80.0% | 82.1% | Med | $11,483 | Refresh |
| 40.0% | 44.7% | High | $79,853 | Refresh | |
| Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? Yes refers to: Before 2035 | 41.0% | 24.2% | Med | $18,007 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (15)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $156,885.31 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $425 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $21,136.76 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $118,667.12 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $16,158 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $20,467 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $31,676 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $31,991 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $32,925 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $43,428 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $121 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $442,253 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $4,511 | Refresh | |
| — | — | Med | $194,071 | Refresh | |
| — | — | High | $73 | Refresh |
