Above 200
Market Model 66.0% 66.8%
Above 225
Market Model 60.0% 60.9%
Climate and Weather Markets
Active Markets (13)
Above 1 inch
Market Model 8.0% 4.0%
Above 6 inches
Market Model 1.0% 0.2%
Above 18
Market Model 19.0% 12.3%
Above 16
Market Model 32.0% 16.9%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 48.0%
Yes
Market Model 30.2% 22.1%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 7.6%
By 2025
Market Model 4.8% 15.8%
By 2030
Market Model 16.0% 15.8%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 88.2%
Yes
Market Model 19.4% 12.1%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 32.7%
Yes
Market Model 31.0% 21.8%
Above 7 inches
Market Model 46.0% 38.3%
Above 4 inches
Market Model 87.0% 82.0%
Oil
Market Model 54.0% 44.7%
Solar
Market Model 3.0% 6.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of tornadoes in May 2026? Top outcome: Above 200 | 66.0% | 66.8% | High | $19,461.81 | Refresh |
| Rain in Los Angeles in May 2026? Top outcome: Above 1 inch | 8.0% | 4.0% | High | $19,730.73 | Refresh |
| Number of tropical storms in 2026? Top outcome: Above 18 | 19.0% | 12.3% | High | $13,552.3 | Refresh |
| 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? Yes refers to: Before 2030 | 56.0% | 48.0% | Med | $21,962.32 | Refresh |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes refers to: Hottest | 30.2% | 22.1% | Med | $109,883.13 | Refresh |
| Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 16.0% | 7.6% | Med | $6,084.18 | Refresh |
| US meets its climate goals? Top outcome: By 2025 | 4.8% | 15.8% | High | $54,122.87 | Refresh |
| Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? Yes refers to: Before 2050 | 81.0% | 88.2% | Med | $13,300.68 | Refresh |
| Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2050 | 19.4% | 12.1% | Med | $28,473.65 | Refresh |
| EU meets its 2030 climate goals? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 42.0% | 32.7% | Med | $3,128.26 | Refresh |
| Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? Yes refers to: Before 2035 | 31.0% | 21.8% | Med | $19,065.06 | Refresh |
| Rain in Houston in May 2026? Top outcome: Above 7 inches | 46.0% | 38.3% | High | $6,610 | Refresh |
| 54.0% | 44.7% | High | $79,853 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (27)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $7,434.68 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,150.37 | ||
| — | — | High | $923.69 | ||
| — | — | High | $6,007.03 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,183.74 | ||
| — | — | High | $6,670.84 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,323.55 | ||
| — | — | High | $1,113 | ||
| — | — | Med | $2,278.76 | ||
| — | — | High | $3,685.89 | ||
| — | — | High | $5,231.5 | ||
| — | — | Med | $156,885.31 | ||
| — | — | High | $425 | ||
| — | — | Med | $12,103.43 | ||
| — | — | Med | $21,136.76 | ||
| — | — | Med | $118,667.12 | ||
| — | — | High | $16,158 | ||
| — | — | Med | $20,467 | ||
| — | — | Med | $31,676 | ||
| — | — | Med | $31,991 | ||
| — | — | Med | $32,925 | ||
| — | — | Med | $43,428 | ||
| — | — | High | $121 | ||
| — | — | Med | $442,253 | ||
| — | — | Med | $4,511 | ||
| — | — | Med | $194,071 | ||
| — | — | High | $73 |
