How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (4/26-5/2)
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump is scheduled to hold one rally in Central Florida this week.
- Indiana and Ohio primaries are scheduled for May 5, 2026.
- Trump often endorses candidates just before upcoming primary elections.
- No shift is reported in Trump's endorsement strategy.
- No unendorsed GOP candidates publicly met Trump recently.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 20 | 26.0% | 25.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp |
| At least 3 | 89.0% | 89.5% | Model higher by 0.5pp |
| At least 10 | 66.0% | 66.5% | Model higher by 0.5pp |
| At least 5 | 75.0% | 75.6% | Model higher by 0.6pp |
| At least 15 | 56.0% | 56.2% | Model higher by 0.2pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 26, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 41.0% to 31.0%
Outcome: At least 20
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump endorses at least 15 people for their election on Truth Social between April 26, 2026, and May 2, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified from Truth Social, and only new, clear, affirmative statements of support qualify, with reaffirmations of previous endorsements not counting. The market closes for trading on May 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout on the same day at 10:30 AM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 | $0.87 | $0.14 | 89% |
| At least 5 | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| At least 10 | $0.66 | $0.35 | 66% |
| At least 15 | $0.58 | $0.44 | 56% |
| At least 20 | $0.27 | $0.74 | 26% |
| At least 25 | $0.15 | $0.86 | 14% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Many Endorsements Did Trump Make on Truth Social (April 26-May 2)?
| 2022 Distinct Truth Social Endorsements | 0 (Based on available sources for Truth Social for the period) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Distinct Truth Social Endorsements | 2 (Trent Staggs, Gabe Evans) [^] |
| Mean Distinct Endorsements | 1 (Calculated from 2022 and 2024 data) [^] |
6. Which States Hold Primaries in May 2026 With Trump Endorsements?
| Indiana Primary Election Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Ohio Primary Election Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 [^] |
| Trump Endorsement Activity | Several challengers for Indiana state legislative seats actively seeking Trump's favor [^] |
7. Is Trump's Endorsement Strategy Shifting in Primary Races?
| Shift to batching/late endorsements | No intelligence indicates a shift to batching endorsements by state or holding them until the final days before a primary [^]. |
|---|---|
| Engagement in Texas primaries | Trump "flooded" the 2026 Texas primaries with endorsements [^]. |
| Selectivity in endorsements | He has selectively "dodged" or "sat out" endorsements in "messy" or "nastiest" GOP Senate primary battles [^]. |
8. What is Donald Trump's Schedule and Endorsement Pattern for April 2026?
| Scheduled Event | Rally in Central Florida on April 27, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Other Events (April 26-May 2, 2026) | No multi-day rallies or legal proceedings listed [^] |
| Endorsement Pattern | Increased before primaries/visits, e.g., March 2026 Texas primaries [^] |
9. Have Unendorsed GOP Candidates Met Trump at Mar-a-Lago Recently?
| Unendorsed candidates meeting Trump | Zero (0) (Based on research findings) [^] |
|---|---|
| Relevant timeframe for meetings | 30 days prior to April 26, 2026 (March 27, 2026 - April 26, 2026) [^] |
| Dates of reported meetings outside timeframe | March 2025 (e.g., Ciattarelli, Spadea) [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: May 03, 2026
- Expiration: May 03, 2026
- Closes: May 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 12 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A5: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A3: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A25: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A20: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSEMENTS-26APR25-A15: NO (Apr 26, 2026)
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