Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?
Yes refers to: Before May 1, 2026
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- No GOP member of Congress publicly called for the 25th Amendment.
- Political bar for 25th Amendment invocation remains extremely high.
- Republican staffers privately question Trump's mental and physical fitness.
- No clear "bright line" exists for non-medical 25th Amendment use.
- High-stakes events will scrutinize president during 2025-2026 period.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 2.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 22, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 14.0% to 6.0%
Outcome: Before May 1, 2026
📉 April 17, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 14.0% to 6.0%
Outcome: Before May 1, 2026
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if any Republican member of Congress publicly calls for Donald Trump's removal as President through the 25th Amendment. This call must occur before May 1, 2026, and be reported by sources such as The Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, The New York Times, or ABC News. If no such call is made by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT, the market resolves to "No," though it will close and settle early if the "Yes" condition is met before that date.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Which Republicans Show Less Fealty to Trump Since 2021?
| Senator Collins' Stance | Expressed "serious objections" to Trump's 2026 budget and voted "no" on "Trump’s mega bill" [^]. Pledged to retire after sixth term if reelected [^]. |
|---|---|
| Representative Fitzpatrick's Record | Frequently breaks with Donald Trump [^]. Voted against a Trump-endorsed bill and criticized Trump for a "lack of moral clarity" regarding Putin [^]. |
| Senator Tillis' Questions | Publicly raised questions about the Trump administration [^]. |
6. What Defines a 'Bright Line' for 25th Amendment Non-Medical Incapacity?
| Specific bright line | Not identified for non-medical incapacity (legal analysis) [^] |
|---|---|
| 25th Amendment Section 4 term | 'Unable to discharge' deliberately left undefined by framers [^] |
| Invocation threshold | High threshold of bipartisan consensus among VP and Cabinet [^] |
7. Do Anti-Trump GOP Groups Directly Fund Moderate Members?
| RAPAC Direct Candidate Contributions (2021-2024) | $0 [^] |
|---|---|
| Kinzinger PAC Direct Candidate Contributions (2021-2022) | $25,000 [^] |
| Kinzinger PAC Direct Candidate Contributions (2023-2024) | $0 [^] |
8. Do Republicans Publicly Support 25th Amendment for Trump?
| Private Staffer Concerns | Doubts regarding former President Trump's mental and physical acuity [^] |
|---|---|
| Public GOP Leadership Stance | No public indication of support for 25th Amendment use [^] |
| Primary Calls for 25th Amendment | From Democrats and former Trump allies [^] |
9. What are the high-stakes policy events for a president in 2025-2026?
| Federal Debt Ceiling | Expected to become a significant concern in 2025, extending into early 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| State of the Union Address | Early 2026 (late January or early February) [^] |
| NATO Summit Location/Year | Ankara, Türkiye in 2026 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: April 17, 2026
- Closes: May 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMOCTRUMP25-26-APR24: NO (Apr 24, 2026)
- KXMOCTRUMP25-26-APR17: NO (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXMOCTRUMP25-26-APR10: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
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