Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 74.0% 71.2%
Republicans, 29+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 70.2%
US Elections Markets
Active Markets (82)
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 7.3% 5.7%
Republicans, 30+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 27.0%
Republicans, 12+ pts
Market Model 79.0% 79.2%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 16.3%
Democrats, 1+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 72.3%
Republicans, 10+ pts
Market Model 9.0% 5.2%
Republicans, 7+ pts
Market Model 8.9% 5.2%
Republicans, 11+ pts
Market Model 21.0% 28.2%
Republicans, 14+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 18.6%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Democrats, 52+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 28.0%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 5.0%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 15.0% 8.0%
Democrats, 51+ pts
Market Model 46.0% 30.0%
Democrats, 39+ pts
Market Model 98.6% 98.0%
Democrats, 25+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 14.3%
Democrats, 4+ pts
Market Model 90.5% 89.1%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Democrats, 14+ pts
Market Model 7.9% 4.6%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 30.0% 32.7%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
Democrats, 22+ pts
Market Model 92.2% 86.2%
Democrats, 31+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 38.6%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 39.6%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 65.0% 50.3%
Republicans, 16+ pts
Market Model 55.0% 55.0%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 68.0% 69.5%
Steve Hilton, 3+ pts
Market Model 19.0% 11.1%
Steve Hilton, 5+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 7.5%
Republicans, 23+ pts
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Republicans, 26+ pts
Market Model 56.0% 41.4%
Democrats, 8+ pts
Market Model 8.4% 8.6%
Democrats, 5+ pts
Market Model 18.0% 17.9%
Republican Party
Market Model 27.0% 15.0%
Democratic Party
Market Model 73.0% 85.0%
Above 3.0M
Market Model 5.1% 20.1%
Above 2.6M
Market Model 3.1% 20.1%
Democrats, 56+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 89.0%
Democrats, 80+ pts
Market Model 13.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 83.0% 80.8%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.1% 90.9%
Democrats, 10+ pts
Market Model 61.0% 58.1%
Democrats, 13+ pts
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 10.4%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 22.0% 21.9%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 16.0% 8.0%
Republicans, 8+ pts
Market Model 9.8% 4.9%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 92.6% 95.0%
Democrats, 58+ pts
Market Model 8.6% 7.0%
Democrats, 2+ pts
Market Model 89.0% 81.1%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 5.0%
Democrats, 37+ pts
Market Model 78.0% 75.4%
Democrats, 34+ pts
Market Model 81.0% 78.6%
Democrats, 35+ pts
Market Model 10.0% 2.0%
Democrats, 11+ pts
Market Model 0.0% 10.0%
Republicans, 22+ pts
Market Model 48.0% 35.9%
Republicans, 28+ pts
Market Model 38.0% 25.0%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 43.0% 41.1%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 25.0% 19.2%
Democrats, 6+ pts
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Yes
Market Model 56.0% 44.1%
Republicans, 3+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 57.9%
Republicans, 6+ pts
Market Model 62.0% 43.2%
Republicans, 5+ pts
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Republicans, 2+ pts
Market Model 54.0% 32.2%
Senate Republican primary
Market Model 25.0% 13.7%
Governor Republican primary
Market Model 5.0% 1.8%
Republicans, 9+ pts
Market Model 87.0% 88.0%
Republicans, 15+ pts
Market Model 73.0% 74.9%
Democrats, 9+ pts
Market Model 11.0% 6.4%
Democrats, 3+ pts
Market Model 35.0% 21.2%
Democrats, 18+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 91.4%
Democrats, 21+ pts
Market Model 75.0% 81.4%
Republicans, 13+ pts
Market Model 88.0% 100.0%
Republicans, 37+ pts
Market Model 9.9% 0.0%
Above 249
Market Model 9.0% 11.7%
Below 210
Market Model 10.0% 5.4%
Yes
Market Model 3.5% 1.5%
Yes
Market Model 74.0% 77.0%
Zach Wahls
Market Model 15.0% 15.9%
Ashley Hinson
Market Model 58.0% 77.0%
Donald Trump → John Cornyn
Market Model 40.0% 29.1%
Donald Trump → Ken Paxton
Market Model 36.0% 20.8%
Haley Stevens
Market Model 13.0% 10.0%
Abdul El-Sayed
Market Model 45.0% 35.1%
Above 52
Market Model 22.0% 18.9%
52
Market Model 12.0% 11.1%
Virginia
Market Model 59.0% 39.7%
California
Market Model 98.4% 98.7%
Before Jun 9, 2026
Market Model 32.0% 21.8%
Before Jul 1, 2026
Market Model 49.0% 35.2%
Yes
Market Model 57.0% 49.0%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 56.0% 48.1%
Maria Pappas
Market Model 3.1% 1.0%
Below 53
Market Model 81.0% 70.1%
53
Market Model 11.0% 10.8%
Ras Baraka
Market Model 96.5% 94.3%
Douglas R. Davis
Market Model 0.1% 0.1%
Aisha Wahab
Market Model 72.0% 60.2%
Rakhi Israni Singh
Market Model 21.0% 20.1%
Republican party
Market Model 31.0% 18.5%
Democratic party
Market Model 68.0% 81.5%
Mejia, 24% and above
Market Model 0.3% 1.3%
Mejia, 16-20%
Market Model 0.5% 3.3%
Governor
Market Model 76.0% 65.0%
Lieutenant Governor
Market Model 84.0% 78.9%
Yes
Market Model 44.0% 34.5%
Matthew McConaughey
Market Model 10.0% 4.1%
Casey DeSantis
Market Model 19.0% 9.4%
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 36.4%
Fiona Ma
Market Model 70.0% 50.9%
Josh Fryday
Market Model 23.0% 30.6%
5 or more
Market Model 22.0% 22.9%
Exactly 4
Market Model 41.0% 38.8%
Saikat Chakrabarti
Market Model 37.0% 30.9%
Scott Wiener
Market Model 62.0% 60.0%
Mary Peltola
Market Model 59.0% 59.6%
Dan Sullivan
Market Model 45.0% 37.8%
Republicans win
Market Model 15.0% 11.7%
Democrats, 0 to 2%
Market Model 5.9% 3.9%
Matt Mahan
Market Model 7.0% 5.7%
Tom Steyer
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Steve Hilton
Market Model 59.0% 55.6%
Xavier Becerra
Market Model 11.0% 12.8%
Georgia
Market Model 7.8% 13.4%
Texas
Market Model 19.0% 15.5%
Yes
Market Model 92.9% 95.5%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 47.0%
Susan Mendoza
Market Model 16.0% 12.4%
Alexi Giannoulias
Market Model 63.0% 44.7%
Andy Barr
Market Model 41.0% 100.0%
Nate Morris
Market Model 14.0% 100.0%
Below 193
Market Model 28.0% 31.1%
223-227
Market Model 4.3% 7.2%
R-House, R-Senate
Market Model 21.0% 17.2%
D-House, R-Senate
Market Model 34.0% 37.5%
Spencer Pratt
Market Model 25.0% 18.3%
Karen Bass
Market Model 47.0% 27.8%
Yes, 0-3%
Market Model 0.7% 1.6%
No, 0-3%
Market Model 0.5% 0.9%
Republican party
Market Model 47.0% 41.4%
Democratic party
Market Model 53.0% 58.6%
Before 2030
Market Model 12.0% 11.6%
Before 2032
Market Model 13.0% 11.6%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 28.0% 28.8%
Tucker Carlson
Market Model 7.2% 5.7%
Cornyn beats Talarico
Market Model 39.0% 34.2%
Talarico beats Paxton
Market Model 25.0% 21.9%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
Marco Rubio
Market Model 19.0% 19.5%
Gavin Newsom
Market Model 17.0% 11.3%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 26+ pts | 74.0% | 71.2% | High | $1,220 | Refresh |
| Florida's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | $4,166 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 30+ pts | 31.0% | 27.0% | High | $2,646 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 16.0% | 16.3% | High | $5,961 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 10+ pts | 9.0% | 5.2% | High | $17,513.68 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 11+ pts | 21.0% | 28.2% | High | $1,772 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 58+ pts | 15.0% | 15.0% | High | $2,392 | Refresh |
| Florida's 27th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 7.9% | 5.0% | High | $2,523 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 51+ pts | 46.0% | 30.0% | High | $11,244 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 25+ pts | 14.0% | 14.3% | Med | $11,452.14 | Refresh |
| Iowa's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | Med | $5,041 | Refresh |
| Kansas's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 30.0% | 32.7% | High | $3,207.72 | Refresh |
| Connecticut's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 22+ pts | 92.2% | 86.2% | High | $33,164.12 | Refresh |
| Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 13+ pts | 54.0% | 39.6% | High | $21,737.9 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 16+ pts | 55.0% | 55.0% | High | $8,673.02 | Refresh |
| California Governor Primary margin of victory Top outcome: Steve Hilton, 3+ pts | 19.0% | 11.1% | High | $12,712.67 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 23+ pts | 59.0% | 44.2% | High | $12,320 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 8+ pts | 8.4% | 8.6% | High | $10,018 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the U.S. House? Top outcome: Republican Party | 27.0% | 15.0% | High | $11,199,865.19 | Refresh |
| Voter turnout for the Virginia redistricting referendum? Top outcome: Above 3.0M | 5.1% | 20.1% | High | $764,655.25 | Refresh |
| Illinois's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 56+ pts | 89.0% | 89.0% | High | $1,076 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 83.0% | 80.8% | High | $5,850 | Refresh |
| New Hampshire's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 10+ pts | 61.0% | 58.1% | Med | $17,481.86 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 10.0% | 10.4% | High | $917 | Refresh |
| Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 16.0% | 8.0% | High | $917 | Refresh |
| Indiana's 7th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 34+ pts | 92.6% | 95.0% | Med | $1,046 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 8th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 2+ pts | 89.0% | 81.1% | High | $1,186 | Refresh |
| Georgia's 13th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 37+ pts | 78.0% | 75.4% | High | $1,858 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 11th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 35+ pts | 10.0% | 2.0% | High | $1,211 | Refresh |
| Florida's 12th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 22+ pts | 48.0% | 35.9% | High | $4,956 | Refresh |
| Maine's 2nd District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 20.0% | 20.1% | High | $2,370 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 3rd District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 3+ pts | 25.0% | 19.2% | High | $3,131 | Refresh |
| Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Yes refers to: Yes | 56.0% | 44.1% | Med | $27,244.66 | Refresh |
| Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 3+ pts | 75.0% | 57.9% | High | $1,023 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 4th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 5+ pts | 44.0% | 24.6% | High | $2,534 | Refresh |
| Which Georgia primary elections will have a first-round winner? Top outcome: Senate Republican primary | 25.0% | 13.7% | Med | $24,435.2 | Refresh |
| Arizona's 9th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 9+ pts | 87.0% | 88.0% | High | $10,439.97 | Refresh |
| Montana's 1st District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 9+ pts | 11.0% | 6.4% | Med | $1,891 | Refresh |
| Colorado's 6th District margin of victory Top outcome: Democrats, 18+ pts | 88.0% | 91.4% | High | $4,636.27 | Refresh |
| Michigan's 5th District margin of victory Top outcome: Republicans, 13+ pts | 88.0% | 100.0% | High | $1,380 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 249 | 9.0% | 11.7% | High | $376,436.14 | Refresh |
| Will Kamala Harris run for California Governor? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 3.5% | 1.5% | Med | $40,852.69 | Refresh |
| Blue wave in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? | 74.0% | 77.0% | Med | $179,575 | Refresh |
| Iowa Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Zach Wahls | 15.0% | 15.9% | High | $2,821.59 | Refresh |
| Texas Republican Senate runoff: who endorses who? Top outcome: Donald Trump → John Cornyn | 40.0% | 29.1% | Med | $180,295.07 | Refresh |
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Haley Stevens | 13.0% | 10.0% | High | $8,335.19 | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Above 52 | 22.0% | 18.9% | High | $796,806.88 | Refresh |
| Which states will redistrict before the midterms? Top outcome: Virginia | 59.0% | 39.7% | Med | $1,401,305.31 | Refresh |
| Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner? Top outcome: Before Jun 9, 2026 | 32.0% | 21.8% | High | $13,097.8 | Refresh |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes refers to: Before 2028 | 57.0% | 49.0% | Med | $20,595.9 | Refresh |
| Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027) Top outcome: Alexi Giannoulias | 56.0% | 48.1% | Med | $36,120.94 | Refresh |
| How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Top outcome: Below 53 | 81.0% | 70.1% | Med | $12,264.7 | Refresh |
| Newark Mayor winner? Top outcome: Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | High | $6,047 | Refresh |
| CA-14 special election winner Top outcome: Aisha Wahab | 72.0% | 60.2% | High | $11,476.35 | Refresh |
| Indiana Secretary of State winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 31.0% | 18.5% | High | $13,768.08 | Refresh |
| 2026 NJ-11 special election margin of victory? Top outcome: Mejia, 24% and above | 0.3% | 1.3% | High | $658,630.83 | Refresh |
| Georgia: Which elections will be won outright? Top outcome: Governor | 76.0% | 65.0% | Med | $32,033.53 | Refresh |
| 44.0% | 34.5% | Med | $3,670.95 | Refresh | |
| Who will run for public office in 2026? Top outcome: Matthew McConaughey | 10.0% | 4.1% | Med | $99,234.44 | Refresh |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes refers to: Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate? | 48.0% | 36.4% | Med | $176,557 | Refresh |
| California Lieutenant Governor winner? Top outcome: Fiona Ma | 70.0% | 50.9% | High | $9,357.29 | Refresh |
| How many Republican senators will lose reelection in 2026? Top outcome: 5 or more | 22.0% | 22.9% | High | $40,211.14 | Refresh |
| CA-11 House winner? (Person) Top outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | High | $6,866.94 | Refresh |
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Top outcome: Mary Peltola | 59.0% | 59.6% | High | $77,120.57 | Refresh |
| 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Top outcome: Republicans win | 15.0% | 11.7% | Med | $116,454.39 | Refresh |
| Will Newsom endorse in the California Governor's race? Top outcome: Matt Mahan | 7.0% | 5.7% | High | $5,389.42 | Refresh |
| Who will lead the next qualifying poll in the California governor's race? Top outcome: Steve Hilton | 59.0% | 55.6% | High | $1,523.63 | Refresh |
| Closest Senate race in 2026? Top outcome: Georgia | 7.8% | 13.4% | High | $75,489.42 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot? Yes refers to: Yes | 92.9% | 95.5% | Med | $63,502.05 | Refresh |
| Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 43.0% | 47.0% | Med | $365,684.95 | Refresh |
| Who will win the Chicago mayoral election? Top outcome: Susan Mendoza | 16.0% | 12.4% | High | $24,001.03 | Refresh |
| Who will Trump endorse in the 2026 primaries? Top outcome: Andy Barr | 41.0% | 100.0% | High | $246,311.04 | Refresh |
| How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Top outcome: Below 193 | 28.0% | 31.1% | High | $881,950.08 | Refresh |
| 2026 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Top outcome: R-House, R-Senate | 21.0% | 17.2% | Med | $3,015,949.56 | Refresh |
| Los Angeles Mayor winner? Top outcome: Spencer Pratt | 25.0% | 18.3% | High | $1,269,442.11 | Refresh |
| Virginia redistricting referendum margin of victory? Top outcome: Yes, 0-3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | Med | $6,428,408.03 | Refresh |
| Arizona State House winner? Top outcome: Republican party | 47.0% | 41.4% | High | $28.44 | Refresh |
| Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes? Top outcome: Before 2030 | 12.0% | 11.6% | Med | $1,422 | Refresh |
| 2028 Republican nominee for President? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 28.0% | 28.8% | High | $25,693,763 | Refresh |
| Texas Senate: Exact outcome Top outcome: Cornyn beats Talarico | 39.0% | 34.2% | Med | $1,158 | Refresh |
| Democratic Senate primaries: progressives sweep? Yes refers to: Yes | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | $32,029 | Refresh |
| 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? Top outcome: Marco Rubio | 19.0% | 19.5% | High | $18,744,212 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | $10,207.72 |
