Newark Mayor winner?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Ras Baraka is the incumbent and has demonstrated strong fundraising.
- Baraka actively pursuing 2025 gubernatorial bid, may impact 2026 eligibility.
- Four candidates officially qualified for the May 2026 Newark mayoral ballot.
- No challengers have secured major institutional endorsements or financing details.
- Campaign finance data for 2026 Newark mayoral candidates is currently unavailable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ras Baraka | 96.5% | 94.3% | Ras Baraka, as the incumbent mayor, holds a strong advantage for re-election. |
| Douglas R. Davis | 0.1% | 0.1% | Douglas R. Davis is a longshot candidate with limited political presence. |
| Jhamar Youngblood | 1.0% | 1.1% | Jhamar Youngblood is a longshot candidate with limited political presence. |
| Sheila Montague | 0.1% | 0.1% | Sheila Montague is a longshot candidate with limited political presence. |
| Debra Salters | 1.0% | 1.1% | Debra Salters is a longshot candidate with limited political presence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A 'Yes' resolution occurs if Ras Baraka wins the 2026 Newark mayoral election, including any runoffs, with the outcome verified by the Essex County Board of Elections. A 'No' resolution occurs if he does not win. The market opened on March 12, 2026, 10:00 am EDT, and closes either after the outcome occurs (potentially accelerated by media consensus) or by June 12, 2027, 10:00 am EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ras Baraka | $0.97 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Debra Salters | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jhamar Youngblood | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Nasheedah Singleton | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Noble Milton | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Tanisha Garner | $0.01 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Douglas R. Davis | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Sheila Montague | $0.02 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What are Ras Baraka's political plans for 2025 and 2026?
| Gubernatorial Campaign Funds Raised | $1.146 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Matching Funds Eligibility Threshold | $500,000 [^] |
| 2026 Mayoral Re-election Status | Not officially ruled out as of EOY 2024 [^] |
5. What is the Campaign Finance Status for 2026 Newark Mayoral Candidates?
| Non-Incumbent Cash-on-Hand | Not yet available (January 2026 filing deadline not passed) [^] |
|---|---|
| Non-Incumbent Donation Origins | Not yet available (January 2026 filing deadline not passed) [^] |
| 2026 Newark Mayoral Election Finance Filing Deadline | Not yet occurred (over a year away) [^] |
6. Which Candidate Secured Newark Mayoral Endorsements by March 2026?
| Essex County Democratic Committee Endorsement | No candidate other than potential incumbent Ras Baraka [^] |
|---|---|
| Newark City Council Majority Endorsement | No candidate other than potential incumbent Ras Baraka [^] |
| Candidates with Both Endorsements by March 1, 2026 | None identified other than potential incumbent Ras Baraka [^] |
7. What was 2022 Newark mayoral election turnout by ward and 2026 challenger connections?
| 2022 Mayoral Election Turnout | Low overall voter turnout [^] |
|---|---|
| 2022 Ward-by-Ward Data | Not available in provided sources [^] |
| 2026 Challenger with Ward Connection | Jhamar Youngblood (Central Ward) [^] |
8. Which Candidates Qualified for Newark Mayor and Face Challenges?
| Petition Filing Deadline | March 10, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Qualified Mayoral Candidates | 4 (Ras Baraka, Sheila Y. Oliver, Michael B. Jackson, Anthony J. Davis) [^] |
| Petition Legal Challenges | None reported for qualified candidates [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 12, 2027
- Closes: June 12, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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