Who will win the Chicago mayoral election?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Alexi Giannoulias to win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election. The model's probability for Giannoulias is 44.7%, while the market has him at 63.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- CTU leadership consistently supports Mayor Johnson's initiatives.
- Giannoulias amassed $18.3 million in campaign cash by April 2026.
- "Bring Chicago Home" transfer tax failed during Fall 2026 budget.
- No public reports confirm polling for Emanuel's 2027 mayoral bid.
- Market saw an 11.0 percentage point price spike on April 28, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Mendoza | 16.0% | 12.4% | Cook County Comptroller Susan Mendoza has strong name recognition from her current public office. |
| Alexi Giannoulias | 63.0% | 44.7% | Alexi Giannoulias has a significant fundraising lead with $18.3 million in campaign cash by April 2026. |
| Mike Quigley | 15.0% | 11.7% | U.S. Representative Mike Quigley brings federal legislative experience and name recognition to the race. |
| Brandon Johnson | 8.5% | 8.7% | Brandon Johnson enjoys strong Chicago Teachers Union support and led an April 2026 public poll. |
| Maria Pappas | 6.0% | 5.0% | Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas has significant local name recognition from her long public service. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market for the 2027 Chicago mayoral election has demonstrated a clear upward trend since its inception. The contract opened at a 42.0% probability and has since climbed to its current high of 63.0%. The most significant price movement was an 11.0 percentage point spike on April 28, 2026, which saw the price jump from 52.0% to 63.0%. According to the information provided, there is no specific news or external context available to explain the direct cause of this sharp increase in perceived probability.
The market has seen a total volume of 1,476 contracts traded, indicating a moderate level of engagement from participants. The initial price of 42.0% has served as a strong support level from which the price has not fallen. The current price of 63.0% represents a new peak and will now be watched as a potential resistance level. The pre-spike price of approximately 52.0% could also act as a new support level should the price retrace.
Overall, the price action suggests a strengthening of market sentiment in favor of the "YES" outcome. The steady climb followed by a sharp, decisive spike implies that market conviction has grown substantially over time. The current 63.0% price indicates that traders believe the "YES" outcome is the likely winner, assigning it a probability well above an even chance.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 52.0% to 63.0%
Outcome: Alexi Giannoulias
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For this contract on Alexi Giannoulias, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Alexi Giannoulias wins the 2027 Chicago mayoral election, as verified by the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners; otherwise, it resolves to "No." Trading began on January 15, 2026, and the market will close either after the outcome occurs or by February 23, 2028, at 10:00 AM EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. A special condition prohibits persons employed by any Source Agency, including the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners, from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexi Giannoulias | $0.70 | $0.37 | 63% |
| Susan Mendoza | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Mike Quigley | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Brandon Johnson | $0.10 | $0.94 | 9% |
| Joe Holberg | $0.05 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Kam Buckner | $0.05 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Maria Pappas | $0.06 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.06 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Paul Vallas | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Discussion among traders primarily revolves around the absence of Republican candidates in the race and a general dissatisfaction with the Democratic party's governance in Chicago, leading some to express a desire to bet on a Republican alternative. While Alexi Giannoulias is the current market favorite at 63%, the specific arguments for or against the listed candidates are not detailed in the discussion content. A secondary point of conversation involves questioning the existence of multiple, thinly traded markets for the Chicago mayoral election.
5. Does Chicago Teachers Union Leadership Support Mayor Johnson?
| Public Support for Mayor Johnson's Budget | CTU publicly applauded 'Protect Chicago' Budget for public schools [^] |
|---|---|
| Alignment on Education Policy | CTU President Stacy Davis Gates applauded rejection of privatization, aligning with Johnson's administration [^] |
| Evidence of Wavering Support/Internal Polling | No public statements or reports of internal polling showing dissatisfaction [^] |
CTU leadership consistently demonstrates strong support for Mayor Brandon Johnson's initiatives. The union publicly endorsed his 'Protect Chicago' Budget, citing its significant investment in public schools [^]. Furthermore, CTU President Stacy Davis Gates has publicly commended the Chicago Board of Education's resolution rejecting privatization, a stance directly aligned with Mayor Johnson's administration [^]. Mayor Johnson has reciprocated this support by backing initiatives favorable to the CTU, such as allowing Chicago Public Schools (CPS) students a day off to advocate for school funding and generally supporting Chicago schools [^]. The reelection of CTU President Stacy Davis Gates and her team in 2025 further signals a sustained leadership and political strategy closely tied to Mayor Johnson [^].
No public or internal signs of wavering support exist from CTU. Available information indicates no public statements or internal polling from CTU leadership that shows dissatisfaction with Mayor Johnson's performance. While external analyses have noted potential challenges for Mayor Johnson's reelection, such as a budget defeat, these observations originate from news outlets and are not reflective of CTU's official position or internal findings [^]. In fact, reports suggest that Stacy Davis Gates plans to provide campaign funding to Mayor Brandon Johnson, which further indicates continued support rather than any signs of discontent [^]. There is no information within the provided sources concerning internal polling conducted by the CTU specifically monitoring Brandon Johnson's performance or revealing dissatisfaction.
6. How much campaign cash did Alexi Giannoulias raise by April 2026?
| Alexi Giannoulias Campaign Cash | $18.3 million (April 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Giannoulias Fundraising Haul | $12 million (early 2026) [^] |
| Incumbent Mayor Johnson Campaign Cash | $813,125 (April 2026) [^] |
Alexi Giannoulias leads challengers in early fundraising with significant business support. By April 2026, potential Chicago mayoral challenger Alexi Giannoulias had amassed a substantial $18.3 million in campaign cash, reflecting a commanding fundraising lead among early hopefuls [^]. This financial position, which included a reported $12 million haul, established him with a "huge fundraising edge" and indicated a strong consolidation of support from traditional business and real estate donor classes [^].
Giannoulias's financial backing far surpasses the incumbent mayor's early funds. Based on campaign finance information available in early 2026, Giannoulias emerged with substantial financial backing. While direct Q3/Q4 2026 campaign finance disclosures were not provided, his early fundraising figures strongly suggest a dominant financial position. For comparison, incumbent Mayor Brandon Johnson had $813,125 in campaign cash as of April 2026 [^]. Giannoulias's active committee, "Citizens for Alexi Giannoulias," is where detailed disclosures would be listed [^].
7. Which Chicago Mayoral Candidates Does FOP Lodge 7 Favor?
| FOP Lodge 7 2026 Endorsements | Cook County judicial races [^] |
|---|---|
| Ald. Raymond Lopez's Stance | Known for "tough on crime" rhetoric [^] |
| Lopez's Prior Mayoral Run | Ran for Chicago mayor in 2023 [^] |
FOP Lodge 7 has not yet signaled 2027 mayoral preferences. Currently, the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) Lodge 7 has not issued explicit endorsements or direct signals for specific candidates in the 2027 Chicago mayoral election. The FOP's publicly available endorsements in March 2026 focused on contested Cook County judicial races [^], indicating an absence of direct FOP pronouncements regarding the upcoming mayoral cycle.
Ald. Raymond Lopez aligns with FOP policy priorities. Ald. Raymond Lopez, a notable "tough on crime" alderperson representing the Southwest Side, stands out for his alignment with policies frequently favored by the FOP. Lopez is recognized for his critiques of progressive policies and has garnered attention from conservative media outlets [^]. His consistent messaging and prior candidacy for Chicago mayor in the 2023 election further establish his profile as a candidate whose platform would likely resonate with the FOP's priorities [^].
8. Are Rahm Emanuel's Associates Polling for a 2027 Mayoral Bid?
| Current Polling Status | No evidence of non-public polls or feasibility studies commissioned by associated consultants/donors [^]. |
|---|---|
| Emanuel's Stated Interest | Suggested a possible interest in running for mayor again [^]. |
| Historical Donor-Funded Poll | Michael Sacks bankrolled a poll in 2018 for a third term [^]. |
No current evidence indicates non-public polling for a potential 2027 mayoral run. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has indicated a potential interest in a future mayoral campaign, fueled by his criticisms of the current administration, leading to speculation among political observers about a possible 2027 comeback [^], [^], [^]. However, the available research does not contain information indicating that non-public polls or feasibility studies are presently being commissioned by political consultants or donors associated with him to assess his viability for a multi-candidate field.
Past and public polls do not confirm current strategic feasibility studies. While a significant donor to Rahm Emanuel, Michael Sacks, funded a poll in 2018 that showed Emanuel well-positioned for a third term, this instance relates to his previous re-election efforts, not a potential 2027 bid [^]. Similarly, recent public polling, such as an April 2026 Suffolk-Tribune Poll, indicated Mayor Brandon Johnson trailing, but this research serves as a general assessment of the current mayor's standing and is not attributed to Emanuel's associates or focused on gauging his specific path to victory [^]. Based on the provided sources, there is no direct evidence confirming the commissioning of current non-public polls or feasibility studies by his associated political consultants or donors for a 2027 mayoral bid.
9. Was "Bring Chicago Home" Included in Chicago's 2026 Budget?
| BCH Transfer Tax Status | Not included in adopted FY2026 budget [^] |
|---|---|
| Budget Approval Date | December 20, 2025 [^] |
| Mayoral Intent for BCH | Administration plans to "take another stab" at BCH [^] |
The "Bring Chicago Home" transfer tax failed to pass during 2026 budget negotiations. During the Fall 2026 city budget negotiations, the "Bring Chicago Home" (BCH) transfer tax, a key revenue initiative for Mayor Johnson, was not included as part of the primary budget approval process. The Chicago City Council approved the final parts of the 2026 budget on December 20, 2025, by a margin of 30-18 [^]. This adopted budget did not feature the restructured, graduated real estate transfer tax proposed by the BCH initiative as an implemented revenue measure [^].
The City Council adopted other taxes to meet revenue needs. Instead of the BCH proposal, the FY2026 budget passed by the City Council included an increase in the property tax levy, a raise in the parking garage tax, and the creation of a new social media amusement tax [^]. Following the budget's passage, Mayor Johnson's administration confirmed in January 2026 that they were still exploring avenues to "take another stab" at passing the Bring Chicago Home referendum, explicitly indicating its non-passage in the initial budget [^]. This outcome signals a substantial challenge for Mayor Johnson's administration regarding a signature revenue initiative.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 23, 2028
- Closes: February 23, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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