PA-07 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent Susan Wild anticipates key Democratic party endorsements.
- Bob Brooks secured significant progressive and some establishment endorsements.
- Ryan Crosswell leads Democratic challengers in Q4 2025 fundraising.
- Crosswell's 'Union Buster' label negatively impacts his campaign.
- No candidate has secured both key Democratic party endorsements yet.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Crosswell | 27.0% | 32.7% | Ryan Crosswell is a secondary contender, showing some support but trailing the lead candidate. |
| Bob Brooks | 71.0% | 58.0% | Bob Brooks is the strongest candidate in the primary with substantial established support. |
| Lamont McClure | 6.0% | 7.9% | Lamont McClure is an outside candidate with limited traction in the current primary contest. |
| Carol Obando-Derstine | 1.0% | 1.3% | Carol Obando-Derstine has very low support, suggesting an uphill battle in the primary. |
| Mark Pinsley | 0.1% | 0.1% | Mark Pinsley is considered a longshot in the race for the Democratic nomination. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Lamont McClure
📉 April 26, 2026: 10.7pp drop
Price decreased from 14.0% to 3.3%
Outcome: Ryan Crosswell
📉 April 23, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 36.0% to 26.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Bob Brooks wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 PA-07 House seat, with the outcome verified from the Democratic Party; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on December 26, 2025, 5:00 PM EST, and closes after the nomination occurs or by May 19, 2027, 10:00 AM EDT. Payout is projected 30 minutes after the market closes.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Brooks | $0.72 | $0.29 | 71% |
| Ryan Crosswell | $0.28 | $0.73 | 27% |
| Lamont McClure | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Carol Obando-Derstine | $0.03 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Mark Pinsley | $0.01 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Who Leads PA-7th Democratic Congressional Candidate Fundraising Q4 2025?
| Leading Candidate Cash on Hand (Q4 2025) | Ryan Crosswell: $645,861 [^] |
|---|---|
| Second Highest Cash on Hand (Q4 2025) | Bob Brooks: $410,217 [^] |
| Third Highest Cash on Hand (Q4 2025) | Mike Miller: $355,000 [^] |
6. Who Will Get PA-07 Democratic Endorsements by March 2026?
| Current Dual Endorsements | None as of February 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Lehigh County Endorsement Anticipated | Late February 2026 [^] |
| Northampton County Endorsement Conclusion | Early March 2026 [^] |
7. Has a 2026 PA-07 Democratic Nominee Received AFL-CIO Endorsement?
| Crosswell's PA-07 Odds Impact | 14-point decrease due to 'AFL-CIO 'Union Buster' Label [^] |
|---|---|
| Bob Brooks Working Families Party Endorsement | Endorsed by Working Families Party [^] |
| Bob Brooks Governor Endorsement | Endorsed by Governor Shapiro [^] |
8. Did Bob Brooks Receive Progressive Endorsements in PA-07 Primary?
| Candidate Endorsed | Bob Brooks (PA-07 Democratic primary) [^] |
|---|---|
| Lead Endorser | Working Families Party (WFP) in March 2026 [^] |
| Additional Endorser | Our Revolution [^] |
9. Why Did Mark Pinsley Withdraw From PA-07 Congressional Race?
| First to withdraw | Mark Pinsley [^] |
|---|---|
| Withdrawal announced by | February 26-27, 2026 [^] |
| New race announced | Pennsylvania State Senate [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 19, 2027
- Closes: May 19, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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