SC-01 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Michael Moore holds stronger early financial backing and local legislative endorsements.
- Moore received prominent 2024 primary endorsements, indicating establishment support.
- Mac Deford launched his 2026 campaign with majority county chair endorsements.
- Deford's 2024 primary fundraising was competitive, demonstrating campaign viability.
- Other candidates lack credible campaign infrastructure or significant party backing.
- No strong unlisted candidate is likely to emerge and win.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy Lacore | 81.0% | 69.2% | Specific campaign details, endorsements, or significant public activity are not detailed in available research. |
| Mac Deford | 20.0% | 24.7% | Launched 2026 campaign, secured majority Democratic County Chair endorsements, and had competitive 2024 fundraising. |
| Robert Beers | 4.0% | 3.5% | His campaign has not yet publicly demonstrated significant traction or detailed key endorsements. |
| KJ Atwood | 1.0% | 0.9% | Details regarding campaign platform, public engagement, or key endorsements have not been broadly publicized. |
| Max Diaz | 1.0% | 0.9% | His campaign's public presence and specific key endorsements remain largely undetailed in available reports. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Nancy Lacore wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 SC-01 House seat, with the outcome verified by the South Carolina Election Commission. If she does not win the nomination, the market resolves to "No," as the event is mutually exclusive.
The market opened on February 6, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST and will close either upon Nancy Lacore winning the nomination or by June 9, 2027, at 10:00 AM EDT. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after the market closes.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy Lacore | $0.81 | $0.20 | 81% |
| Mac Deford | $0.24 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Robert Beers | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| KJ Atwood | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Max Diaz | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Mayra Rivera-Vazquez | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Who Has Stronger Financial Backing and Local Endorsements?
| Michael B. Moore Cash on Hand | $104,117.89 (as of Dec 31, 2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Mac Deford Cash on Hand | $103,178.69 (as of Dec 31, 2023) [^] |
| Moore's State Legislator Endorsements | 3 (from SC House Reps Spencer Wetmore, Krystle Matthews, Deon Tedder) [^] |
5. How Did Mac Deford's 2024 Primary Campaign Fundraising Perform?
| Q1 2024 Fundraising Total | $130,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Pre-Primary Funds Lead | Mac Deford and Catherine Templeton [^] |
| Competitive Standing | Nearly even with top GOP fundraiser [^] |
6. Who Endorsed Key Candidates in the 2024 SC-01 Primary?
| Michael B. Moore Key Endorsements | Rep. Jim Clyburn, Charleston County Democratic Party, Jaime Harrison [^] |
|---|---|
| Mac Deford Endorsements | Secured key endorsements [^] |
| 2026 SC-01 Primary Field Status | Currently open, no candidates listed (early 2024) [^] |
7. Which Lesser-Known Candidates Have Credible SC Campaign Infrastructure?
| Campaign Manager Experience | No details on prior South Carolina congressional race experience for Rivera-Vazquez, Beers, or Atwood [^]. |
|---|---|
| Physical Campaign Office | No details on physical campaign offices in Charleston or Beaufort for Rivera-Vazquez, Beers, or Atwood [^]. |
| Diaz Campaign Infrastructure | No specific sources provided for evaluation of campaign manager or physical office [^]. |
8. Have Mac Deford's Endorsements Cleared the SC-01 Democratic Field?
| Democratic County Chair Endorsements | Majority (five or six out of nine) in SC's 1st Congressional District [^] |
|---|---|
| Rival Candidate Withdrawals | No indication of rivals dropping out due to endorsements [^] |
| Polling-Based Withdrawals/Endorsements | No candidate has withdrawn due to low polling or officially endorsed a stronger rival [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 09, 2027
- Closes: June 09, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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