Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Donald Trump accumulated substantial financial reserves for future political endeavors.
- Potential 2028 GOP candidates made minimal trips to Iowa since 2025.
- J.D. Vance gained significant earned media post-2024 on conservative platforms.
- Kristi Noem hired Corey Lewandowski, a key figure from Trump's 2016 campaign.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 33.0% | 20.4% | Her name is frequently discussed for higher office, and she cultivates a strong, vocal base. |
| Marco Rubio | 65.0% | 54.8% | A prominent senator with past presidential campaign experience, he remains influential in the party. |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 23.0% | 12.2% | He maintains a high public profile and strong connections within the Republican base. |
| Tucker Carlson | 53.0% | 40.7% | He has a significant media platform and a dedicated following, fueling speculation about a run. |
| J.D. Vance | 76.0% | 68.6% | A rising Republican figure, his Senate seat provides a strong platform for future ambitions. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if Josh Hawley publicly announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Republican nomination before January 1, 2028; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market closes by January 1, 2028, at 10:00 AM EST, or earlier if the event occurs. Resolution relies on reports from specified news organizations including The New York Times, Associated Press, Reuters, and CNN, and employees of these source agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | $0.84 | $0.20 | 80% |
| J.D. Vance | $0.81 | $0.24 | 76% |
| Ron DeSantis | $0.64 | $0.38 | 66% |
| Marco Rubio | $0.65 | $0.38 | 65% |
| Tucker Carlson | $0.59 | $0.48 | 53% |
| Josh Hawley | $0.47 | $0.56 | 47% |
| Rand Paul | $0.42 | $0.61 | 42% |
| Brian Kemp | $0.38 | $0.68 | 38% |
| Glenn Youngkin | $0.42 | $0.65 | 38% |
| Nikki Haley | $0.35 | $0.66 | 35% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | $0.33 | $0.73 | 33% |
| Steve Bannon | $0.30 | $0.72 | 28% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.27 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | $0.24 | $0.78 | 24% |
| Thomas Massie | $0.29 | $0.74 | 24% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | $0.25 | $0.76 | 24% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | $0.25 | $0.78 | 23% |
| Greg Abbott | $0.22 | $0.81 | 23% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | $0.21 | $0.80 | 21% |
| Byron Donalds | $0.21 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Matt Gaetz | $0.22 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Pete Hegseth | $0.20 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Erika Kirk | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| Donald J. Trump | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Jared Kushner | $0.14 | $0.93 | 14% |
| Katie Britt | $0.12 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Elise Stefanik | $0.10 | $0.91 | 8% |
| Elon Musk | $0.07 | $0.99 | 7% |
| John Thune | $0.08 | $0.98 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What Preparations Has Trump Made for a 2028 Presidential Bid?
| Initial Fundraising (post-Nov 2024) | $300 million [^] |
|---|---|
| Fundraising by Early 2026 | $483 million [^] |
| January 2025 War Chest Target | $500 million [^] |
5. How Many Trips Have 2028 GOP Candidates Made to Iowa?
| Candidates with >2 IA/NH Trips (Since Jan 2025) | None (excluding Donald Trump) [^] |
|---|---|
| Kari Lake's Iowa Visit | January 2025 [^] |
| Glenn Youngkin's Iowa Visit | July 2025 [^] |
6. Which Potential 2028 Republican Nominees Gained Post-2024 Media Attention?
| J.D. Vance Media Presence | Discussed relationship with Trump on Fox News (May 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Marco Rubio Political Relevance | Explored as a Trump 'influencer' in Semafor (March 2025) [^] |
| Paid Social Media Ad Spending | No specific data found in research [^]. |
7. Who Are Key Campaign Hires for Potential 2028 Candidates?
| Noem's Strategic Hire | Corey Lewandowski [^] |
|---|---|
| Lewandowski's Prior Role | Campaign Manager for Trump's 2016 campaign [^] |
| DeSantis PAC Recruitment | Senior team members from 2016 Trump and 2022 Youngkin campaigns [^] |
8. Who Will File First for 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination Post-2026 Midterms?
| 2026 Midterm Election Date | November 3, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Post-Election 90-Day End | February 1, 2027 [^] |
| 2028 GOP Nomination Filings | Specific candidates not predicted in research [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2028
- Closes: January 01, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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