Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Gavin Newsom to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- J.B. Pritzker is actively building national fundraising networks into 2025.
- Ruben Gallego made early visits to key primary states like Iowa in 2025.
- Shadow campaigns with $10M Super PACs are emerging for 2028 nomination.
- Kamala Harris recruits top strategists, bolstering her potential 2028 campaign.
- Kamala Harris's role for 2028 hinges on the 2024 presidential election result.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 60.0% | 48.8% | As current Vice President, she holds a prominent position for a future bid. |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 53.0% | 40.7% | Her strong progressive platform and national profile position her as a potential future candidate. |
| Wes Moore | 54.0% | 41.8% | As a young, popular governor, he represents a fresh face for the party's future. |
| Tim Walz | 12.0% | 5.1% | His success as Minnesota's governor could propel a future national campaign. |
| Gavin Newsom | 88.0% | 88.8% | The California Governor maintains a high national profile, frequently engaging on national issues. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market exhibits a sideways trading pattern, indicating a period of consolidation and indecision among participants. The price has been confined to a narrow 4-point range, oscillating between a support level at 64.0% and a resistance level at 68.0%. The market opened at 64.0% and is currently trading near that level at 65.0%, reinforcing the lack of a clear directional trend. While there was a brief spike to 68.0% early in the period, it was not sustained, and the price quickly reverted to the middle of its range. The provided context does not offer any specific news or events that would explain this short-lived price movement.
The most notable characteristic of this market is its extremely low trading volume, with only 26 contracts traded in total across 211 data points. The sample data points show zero volume, suggesting that the price changes are occurring on minimal activity. This low liquidity implies that the price movements may not reflect a broad market consensus or a reaction to significant new information. Instead, a small number of trades can disproportionately influence the price. The lack of volume suggests a low level of conviction from traders and a general "wait-and-see" approach.
Overall, the market sentiment appears stable but uncertain, holding a moderately high probability of 65.0% for the event to occur. However, the sideways price action combined with the negligible volume indicates that the market is not actively processing new information or forming a strong directional bias. The current price level reflects a baseline expectation that has seen little challenge or confirmation from significant trading activity.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if Elissa Slotkin announces a campaign for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination before January 1, 2028, as confirmed by specified news sources. If no such announcement is made by this deadline, the market resolves to NO. The market opened on October 1, 2025, will close early if the event occurs, or by January 1, 2028, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Individuals employed by the listed source agencies are prohibited from trading this contract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | $0.87 | $0.14 | 88% |
| Andy Beshear | $0.81 | $0.21 | 81% |
| Pete Buttigieg | $0.84 | $0.19 | 81% |
| J.B. Pritzker | $0.80 | $0.21 | 80% |
| Josh Shapiro | $0.84 | $0.22 | 78% |
| Chris Murphy | $0.72 | $0.34 | 72% |
| Rahm Emanuel | $0.75 | $0.28 | 72% |
| Ro Khanna | $0.71 | $0.32 | 69% |
| Cory Booker | $0.68 | $0.35 | 65% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | $0.67 | $0.39 | 62% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.62 | $0.39 | 62% |
| Kamala Harris | $0.61 | $0.40 | 60% |
| Jared Polis | $0.55 | $0.51 | 55% |
| Wes Moore | $0.55 | $0.46 | 54% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | $0.53 | $0.51 | 53% |
| Elissa Slotkin | $0.52 | $0.51 | 52% |
| Jon Ossoff | $0.41 | $0.60 | 41% |
| Ruben Gallego | $0.40 | $0.63 | 40% |
| Phil Murphy | $0.34 | $0.71 | 36% |
| Abigail Spanberger | $0.36 | $0.66 | 33% |
| Raphael Warnock | $0.33 | $0.69 | 31% |
| Roy Cooper | $0.28 | $0.75 | 31% |
| Chris Van Hollen | $0.30 | $0.77 | 29% |
| Dean Phillips | $0.26 | $0.78 | 28% |
| Stephen A. Smith | $0.28 | $0.77 | 26% |
| John Fetterman | $0.28 | $0.75 | 25% |
| Mark Cuban | $0.27 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Mikie Sherrill | $0.24 | $0.82 | 24% |
| Jon Stewart | $0.19 | $0.82 | 16% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.14 | $0.89 | 14% |
| Tim Walz | $0.07 | $0.94 | 12% |
| Michelle Obama | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.06 | $0.98 | 6% |
| Barack Obama | $0.05 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Mitch Landrieu | $0.69 | $0.39 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The market indicates close probabilities for Wes Moore (54%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (53%), and Elissa Slotkin (52%) to run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Discussions feature varied opinions on other potential candidates; for example, Kamala Harris faces arguments against her running due to perceived hesitation and past election performance, while others express strong support for her. Traders also advocate for Jon Ossoff, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, and James Talarico, with some making strong "shoo-in" predictions or offering strategic advice for their campaigns.
4. Which Democratic candidates are building national fundraising networks out-of-state?
| J.B. Pritzker Activity | Headlining New Hampshire Democratic Party fundraiser [^] |
|---|---|
| Gretchen Whitmer Activity | Listening tour in Miami, Florida, October 2025 [^] |
| Gavin Newsom Activity | South Carolina Democratic Party events, February 2026 [^] |
J.B. Pritzker shows the most direct national fundraising activity by end of 2025. Based on available web research, he provides the clearest evidence of actively building a national fundraising network by headlining events for state Democratic parties outside his own state within the specified timeframe. Pritzker is confirmed to headline the New Hampshire Democratic Party's largest fundraiser, an event that directly aligns with the criteria of leading an out-of-state fundraising event for a state Democratic party [^].
Other potential candidates show national engagement but do not meet specific fundraising criteria. Gretchen Whitmer visited Miami for a 'listening tour' ahead of the 2026 midterms and delivered a 'bipartisan message' in 'Trump country' in October 2025, indicating out-of-state political engagement [^]. However, the sources do not explicitly state she was headlining fundraising events for state Democratic parties or federal candidates. Gavin Newsom has Democratic Party events planned in South Carolina, but these are scheduled for February 2026, which falls outside the 'now and the end of 2025' timeframe [^]. While Josh Shapiro is reportedly growing his donor network ahead of 2028 and raised $10 million, specific reports of him headlining out-of-state fundraising events for other state Democratic parties or federal candidates within the specified timeframe are not provided [^].
5. Which Potential 2028 Democratic Hopefuls Are Visiting Early Primary States?
| Ruben Gallego's Iowa Visit | August 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Rahm Emanuel's Des Moines Visit | September 2025 [^] |
| Andy Beshear's South Carolina Visit | Upcoming visit [^] |
Democratic hopefuls are making early visits to Iowa in 2025. U.S. Senator Ruben Gallego’s visit to the Iowa State Fair in August 2025, following an announcement in July 2025, garnered significant attention [^]. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel also made an appearance in Des Moines in September 2025, observing that "all eyes" would be on Iowa in 2026 regarding the presidential race [^]. The Des Moines Register is closely following these developments, discussing Iowa's continued role in the 2028 calendar [^].
Other early primary states also see candidate visits and media attention. The Nevada Independent is tracking visits from 2028 presidential hopefuls to Nevada [^]. Similarly, in South Carolina, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear’s upcoming visit is noted as contributing to the growing Democratic 2028 buzz, as reported by The Post and Courier [^]. New Hampshire’s importance as an early primary state is recognized, with the Union Leader highlighting that "the road to 2028 runs through New Hampshire" [^]. These early visits indicate the initial stages of campaigning and groundwork being laid for the next presidential election cycle.
6. Which 2028 Democratic Candidate Has a $10M Super PAC?
| 2028 Democratic Race Status | Shadow campaigns" are emerging [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Key PACs Mentioned | FIGHT FOR THE PEOPLE PAC, CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRACY PAC [^], [^], [^], [^] |
| $10M Super PAC Identified | Not possible with provided research data [^] |
Early 'shadow campaigns' are emerging for the 2028 Democratic nomination. Potential contenders are already exploring their options through various activities, signaling preliminary stages of the election cycle [^], [^]. Tracking early campaign finance movements, including the formation of Super PACs and 501(c)(4) organizations, typically involves monitoring Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings and PAC profiles to identify significant financial activity [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^].
Active committees are noted, but lack required financial data and candidate links. Among the entities identified as active in the current landscape are 'FIGHT FOR THE PEOPLE PAC' [^], [^] and 'CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRACY PAC' [^], also known as 'CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRACY COMMITTEE' [^]. While these types of committees are relevant for observing initial campaign finance efforts, the available research does not explicitly indicate their fundraising totals have reached the over $10 million threshold, nor does it establish definitive affiliations with any specific 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.
Insufficient data prevents identifying the first candidate with a $10M Super PAC. Consequently, based solely on the information provided, it is not possible to identify which candidate will be the first to have a dedicated Super PAC or 501(c)(4) established on their behalf that has raised over $10 million for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. The detailed financial data necessary to confirm a fundraising total above $10 million and explicit candidate affiliations are not present within the current research findings.
7. How Does the 2024 Election Outcome Impact Kamala Harris's Role?
| Role if Biden Re-elected | Continues as Vice President of the United States [^] |
|---|---|
| Role if Biden Loses | Transitions out of Vice President role in January 2025 [^] |
| Public Statements (Biden Loss) | Critiqued "Trump tariffs" in April 2025 [^] |
A Biden victory would retain Kamala Harris as Vice President. If President Biden secures re-election, Kamala Harris would continue as Vice President of the United States, with her public statements in the six months following the election (November 2024 - April 2025) aligning with the administration's policies and priorities [^]. This would include statements such as one on January 15, 2025 [^], another regarding the Equal Rights Amendment on January 17, 2025 [^], and a statement concerning a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas [^]. In this scenario, her involvement in federal political staffing decisions would persist within her Vice Presidential office and the broader executive branch as part of the re-elected administration.
A Biden loss would transition Harris out of office. Conversely, a Biden loss in the 2024 election would mean Kamala Harris transitions out of her Vice Presidential role when a new administration takes office in January 2025 [^]. Following the election, she delivered a concession speech on November 6, 2024, acknowledging the results while emphasizing continued political engagement [^]. Her public statements in the subsequent six months would shift from representing the executive branch to expressing her views as a prominent figure within the Democratic party, as exemplified by an April 2025 speech where she criticized "Trump tariffs" as "absolute chaos" [^]. Without a federal office, she would no longer be making federal political staffing decisions.
8. Which Obama-Biden Strategists Joined Kamala Harris's Campaign?
| Integrated Strategists | At least three prominent strategists from past Obama and Biden presidential campaigns [^] |
|---|---|
| Campaign Chair | Jen O'Malley Dillon (for Harris for President) [^] |
| Principal Deputy Campaign Manager | Quentin Fulks (for Harris/Walz 2024 campaign) [^] |
Kamala Harris has actively recruited experienced Democratic presidential campaign personnel. Her political operation has brought in high-profile strategists and operatives from previous Obama and Biden campaigns. Jen O'Malley Dillon, who managed Joe Biden's 2020 presidential campaign and served as White House Deputy Chief of Staff under President Biden, now holds the position of Campaign Chair for Harris for President [^]. Quentin Fulks, described as a "longtime Obama alum," serves as Principal Deputy Campaign Manager for the Harris/Walz 2024 campaign [^]. Additionally, David Plouffe, an aide from Barack Obama's presidential campaign, has joined Harris's election team [^]. These appointments demonstrate a strategic effort to incorporate proven expertise from successful past campaigns.
Information on other potential 2028 contenders shows less integration of these specific operatives. While Governors Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore have prominent staff within their political operations [^], the available web research primarily highlights the integration of high-profile Obama and Biden presidential campaign strategists into Kamala Harris's team. The provided sources do not explicitly detail similar direct hires of Obama or Biden presidential campaign operatives by Whitmer, Shapiro, or Moore [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2028
- Closes: January 01, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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