DC Democratic House delegate nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Eleanor Holmes Norton announced in 2026 she would not seek re-election.
- Brooke Pinto attracted strong early financial commitments from D.C. elite.
- Robert White secured Working Families Party endorsement and establishment financial backing.
- Janeese Lewis George received WFP mayoral endorsement, not for delegate.
- Kinney Zalesne lacks strong early fundraising and broad endorsements from leaders.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert White | 59.0% | 44.3% | Robert White secured the Working Families Party endorsement and significant early financial backing. |
| Brooke Pinto | 27.0% | 23.4% | Brooke Pinto secured the strongest early financial commitments from D.C.'s business and establishment donors. |
| Kinney Zalesne | 6.0% | 4.9% | Market higher by 1.1pp |
| Janeese Lewis George | 4.7% | 3.1% | The Working Families Party endorsed Janeese Lewis George for Mayor, indicating a different campaign focus. |
| Eleanor Holmes Norton | 2.0% | 0.8% | Eleanor Holmes Norton publicly announced she would not seek re-election, effectively ending her candidacy. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Robert White wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district, and to NO if he does not. The market opened on September 23, 2025, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00am EST, whichever comes first. The outcome will be verified from the Democratic Party's website, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert White | $0.69 | $0.39 | 59% |
| Brooke Pinto | $0.26 | $0.75 | 27% |
| Kinney Zalesne | $0.06 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Deirdre Brown | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Gordon Chaffin | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Greg Maye | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Jacque Patterson | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Kelly Mikel Williams | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Janeese Lewis George | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Eleanor Holmes Norton | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What are Eleanor Holmes Norton's campaign finances and burn rate?
| Q4 2024/Q1 2025 Filing Status | Not yet filed [^] |
|---|---|
| Latest Cash-on-Hand | $347,511 (as of December 31, 2023) [^] |
| Burn Rate Trend | Generally stable during non-election quarters (Q4 2019, Q1 2019, Q4 2021, Q1 2021 FEC Reports) [^] |
5. Which D.C. Candidates Attract Top Donor Early Financial Commitments?
| Brooke Pinto Donor Base | Business and real estate elite, establishment donors, prominent Republican donors [^] |
|---|---|
| Robert White Fundraising | $300,000 by mid-May 2026 from political establishment and business leaders [^] |
| Janeese Lewis George Donor Profile | Primarily from labor unions, less from top individual donors [^] |
6. Did Candidates Meet Federal Campaign Staffing Benchmarks by Q3 2025?
| Kinney Zalesne Staffing (Q3 2025) | Campaign manager hired (federal experience), finance director not confirmed [^] |
|---|---|
| Brooke Pinto Staffing (Q3 2025) | No staff meeting criteria by Q3 2025; hires occurred Q4 2025 [^] |
| Robert White Staffing (Q3 2025) | No campaign manager or finance director announced [^] |
7. What Was WFP's Early D.C. Election Strategy Before 2026?
| WFP D.C. Polling Date | February 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| WFP Mayoral Endorsement 2026 | Janeese Lewis George [^] |
| WFP Delegate Endorsement 2026 | Robert White [^] |
8. When Did Eleanor Holmes Norton Announce Re-election Decision?
| Re-election Announcement | January 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Declines Ranking Member Bid | April 2025 [^] |
| 119th Congress Term | 2025-2026 [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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